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2012 Compensatory picks

Discussion in 'NFL Draft' started by FCBolt, Jul 28, 2011.

  1. FCBolt

    FCBolt Well-Known Member

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    Okay, first up, no idea how the new CBA changes the equation. Certainly it has to account for all the FA pickups and losses happening after the deadline for compensatory picks in the old CBA. But I'm getting ahead of myself.
    Here's how it used to work
    1. # of compensatory picks you get = number of eligible FAs you lost - number you gained. Eligibility was determined by date of acquisition, which I believe was in early July before.

    2. Draft round for compensatory pick =amount of $$$ made by departing FA who got you that compensatory pick + small effect for performance.

    3. Position within round = contract $$ of departing FA but also playing time and performance.

    So far we've gained 2 FAs from other teams (Spikes and Sanders) and lost 1 (Sproles).
    Contract details:
    Sproles 2.5 mill per year, 6 mill guaranteed
    Spikes 3 mill per year, 3 mill guaranteed
    Sanders ???

    Looks like Sproles and Spikes contracts will cancel in the compensatory equation. Sanders contract puts us one in the hole (maybe Cooper's will make up for it). We NEED another WILB if we don't re-sign Burnett (Kion Wilson is currently our most experience signed player at that position!) So that could be one more FA we pick up. Not sure how many of the guys we lose will get decent contracts. Maybe Siler and Burnett, but I hope we re-sign them.

    Preliminary prediction: No compensatory picks in 2012 for the Chargers. But it's possible we might get a low rounder. We'll see what Cooper, Siler, and Burnett get if they leave.

    EDIT: Forgot Floyd: Preliminary prediction 2: We'll get a good compensatory pick ;)
     
  2. FCBolt

    FCBolt Well-Known Member

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    Uptate: 2 FAs from other teams and lost 2.
    Contract details:
    Sproles 2.5 mill per year, 6 mill guaranteed
    Burnett 5.25 mill per year, 10 mill guaranteed

    Spikes 3 mill per year, 3 mill guaranteed
    LaBoy ???

    Sanders was cut by the Colts so he doesn't count.
    Cooper, Floyd, and Siler should get signed, while we'll need to pick up an ILB.

    That should leave us with 5 guys signed by other teams, while we picked up 4, giving us one compensatory in 2012.

    That said, Volek is wild card, maybe Oliver too.
     
  3. ThunderHorse17

    ThunderHorse17 Lone Wolf

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    But never before have they had to sign up to 90 players. I think that sneaks in as a small factor.

    Reading your second post I agree keep Floyd and Siler and look for a good vet ILB if available, but F*** Coop.
     
  4. FCBolt

    FCBolt Well-Known Member

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    No, I meant they should get signed by other teams. I agree we should sign them (and **** Coop too), but I don't think it's going to happen.

    The 90 player and cap floor issues might affect it. No idea what the new equation is going to be. I suspect the same as the old--I doubt they quibble over something so minor.
     
  5. Charger Dave

    Charger Dave Back to the Alethiometer..

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    Hey FC, dunno if you saw it - but JoeMcRugby found a PDF of the new CBA over on the other one:

    http://images.nflplayers.com/mediaRe...es/2011CBA.pdf

    Entirely too much of it is Lawyer-speak, (read way over my head), but have already gleaned a little bit out of there, (SOB is freaking LONG)...
     
  6. FCBolt

    FCBolt Well-Known Member

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    Hey Dave, do they have a thread over there where they've broken down specifics?
    I did look at the new CBA, and there's no indication that anything is going to be any different.

    That said, I don't think we'll get any Compensatory picks this year: I think that we gained the same number of eligible FAs as we lost. Could be wrong on that though as I lost track during the FA craziness this year.
     
  7. Charger Dave

    Charger Dave Back to the Alethiometer..

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    FC, if there is I haven't seen it. The exact formula used by the NFL for determining who gets what in compensatory picks remains a closely guarded secret so anything public you can find on that subject is just more speculation. I'm sure it will crop up again over there about two or three weeks after the Superbowl, but McRugs is about the only one whose opinion I read in those threads any more.
     
  8. FCBolt

    FCBolt Well-Known Member

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    Gotcha--will check in on McRugs in the offseason.
    As far as compensatory picks, for anyone interested, this guy doesn't have it figured out exactly, but he comes very close to nailing it every year:
    http://adamjt13.blogspot.com/2010/03/comparing-2010-projection-to-actual.html
     
  9. FCBolt

    FCBolt Well-Known Member

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    I think we might get a pick.
    We lost: Sproles, Burnett
    And gained: LaBoy and Spikes. (Sanders didn't count because the Colts cut him before FA eligibility began).

    In addition, Siler was signed 7/31 and Naanee 8/4. I think that Naanee signing is past the deadline to make him compensatory eligible. Unsure on Siler.

    Sproles was worth about 3.5/yr, Burnett 5.25/yr so total of guys that went elsewhere is 8.75
    LaBoy was c 1.2, and Spikes 3 mill/yr. total of c 4.2.

    So if those are only eligible acquisitions/losses, we'll get a net value comp pick at the end of the 7th round.
    Throw in Siler and we have 3 losses and 2 acquisitions giving us a compensatory pick somewhere.

    Sproles cancels Spikes due to equivalence of contracts.

    Siler's contract was probably minimum for a 5th year guy. A bit less than LaBoy's contract, but they would cancel (I think).

    Leaving the Bolts to reap the benefits from the Burnett contract.
    5.25/yr should get us a 4th round compensatory pick.

    That's a best case scenario. Siler was IR'd in August so he played 0 snaps and I think that could have an effect on whether he counts or not...

    So in summary, we'll get a 4th (more unlikely the more I think about Siler's timing on IR), a 7th, or jackshit.

    I'd say greatest probability is one of the last picks in 7th.
     
  10. FCBolt

    FCBolt Well-Known Member

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    Starting to think about this again since we'll find out with the NFL Owners meeting next week.

    Going through the scenarios, I think #2 is most likely with #1 also a possibility:

    1. Neither Siler nor Naanee count (signings were after compensatory-eligible deadline) :
    Lost: Burnett ($5.25 mill/yr), Sproles ($3.5 mill/yr)
    Signed: Spikes ($3 mill/yr), Laboy ($1.2 mill/yr)
    Result: Net value pick in 7th round

    2. Naanee counts, Siler doesn't (Naanee signing made deadline, Siler IR'd doesn't count).
    Lost: Burnett ($5.25 mill/yr), Sproles ($3.5 mill/yr), Naanee ($0.7 mill/yr)
    Signed: Spikes ($3 mill/yr), Laboy($1.2 mill/yr)
    Spikes cancels Sproles, Laboy cancels Naanee, leaving us with a 4th or 5th round pick in compensation for Burnett.
    This is likely if the deadline for compensatory eligible FAs was extended into August (it's in late June most years I think).


    3. Siler counts, Naanee doesn't (Naanee signing could have been past deadline)
    Lost: Burnett ($5.25 mill/yr), Sproles ($3.5 mill/yr), Siler ($0.7 mill/yr)
    Signed: Spikes ($3 mill/yr), Laboy($1.2 mill/yr)
    Spikes cancels Sproles, Laboy cancels Siler, leaving us with a 4th or 5th round pick in compensation for Burnett.
    This isn't likely though because Siler was IR'd and played 0 snaps for Chiefs.

    4. Naanee and Siler both count
    Lost: Burnett ($5.25 mill/yr), Sproles ($3.5 mill/yr), Naanee ($0.7 mill/yr), Siler ($0.7 mill/yr)
    Signed: Spikes ($3 mill/yr), Laboy($1.2 mill/yr)
    Not sure what happens here, we'd definitely get the 4th or 5th round pick in compensation for Burnett, and possibly an extra 7th round pick for Siler. As mentioned above Siler was IR'd. So this scenario is very unlikely.
     
  11. AnteaterCharger

    AnteaterCharger Calibrating Bolttalk, Podcast by Podcast Staff Member Super Moderator Podcaster

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    Compensatory picks are some weird *** voodoo spell - you never can really tell what the heck your going to get or why
     
  12. Buck Melanoma

    Buck Melanoma Guest

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    Should we kill a chicken? :sneaky:
     
  13. AnteaterCharger

    AnteaterCharger Calibrating Bolttalk, Podcast by Podcast Staff Member Super Moderator Podcaster

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    Not if we want that fourth rounder, I'd say we find a scapegoat and sacrifice it
     
  14. Buck Melanoma

    Buck Melanoma Guest

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    [​IMG]
     
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  15. FCBolt

    FCBolt Well-Known Member

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    Usually they're predictable. With the lockout last year, it's a bit different.
    I'm betting on the 4th or 5th rounder.
     
  16. FCBolt

    FCBolt Well-Known Member

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    Has the LT/Cromartie sacrifice worn off already?
     
  17. Buck Melanoma

    Buck Melanoma Guest

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    Sacrifice?? Those were addition by subtraction.
     
  18. FCBolt

    FCBolt Well-Known Member

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    ****, that's right. It was Cottrell who was the scapegoat ;)
     
  19. AnteaterCharger

    AnteaterCharger Calibrating Bolttalk, Podcast by Podcast Staff Member Super Moderator Podcaster

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    Until bobby ross, then he was sacrificed
     
  20. Concudan

    Concudan Caffeinated Commando

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    If Chargers fans need to rely solely on a kicker with any regularity then we are fooked regardless...
     
  21. SuperCharger92

    SuperCharger92 BoltTalker

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    so whats going on here? are we getting additional picks?
     
  22. Buck Melanoma

    Buck Melanoma Guest

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    Announcement will come at some point during the owner's meeting this week.
     
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  23. matilack

    matilack #therealagent47

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    I'm betting a 5th. Even though Sproles is a good player again (no thanks to Norv) he didn't sign for that much money. And we did spend some money on Spikes and Sanders.

    But we will wrangle a late 3rd for Vincent Jackson in next years draft!!!:abq2:
     
  24. SuperCharger92

    SuperCharger92 BoltTalker

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    3rd? I was hoping a 2nd round pick haha

    I doubt we get a 5th though, I'm just gonna expect a 7th so I won't get disappointed if it indeed is less than a 5th!
     
  25. FCBolt

    FCBolt Well-Known Member

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    I guess Naanee didn't count, so that left us with the net value compensatory in the late 7th.
    VJs contract won't get us anything next year because we'll have picked up more FAs than we lost, once the dust settles.
    That's a good thing imo: we needed help now rather than an additional late 3rd round pick in 2013.
     
  26. matilack

    matilack #therealagent47

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    Yeah not surprised by this.

    Oakland got 3rd, 4th, and 5th rounders.....which won't help them get into the 2nd or 1st round because comp picks can't be traded.
     
  27. gettough

    gettough BoltTalker

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    Disappointing but understandable, it would be nice if they considered that Sproles had his best season and Travis Laboy sucks but I guess the quality of play from the free agent doesnt really matter.
     
  28. FCBolt

    FCBolt Well-Known Member

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    The quality of play or number of snaps can affect the compensatory pick within the round, but the assignment to draft round is influenced mainly by contract terms ($$$/yr primarily).

    By giving the Saints a deal, Sproles potentially messed with our compensatory pick BUT we needed to lose an additional FA anyway to be considered for a better compensatory pick. We picked up 2 and lost 2 eligible FAs, therefore the net value pick we got was the best we could do.
     
  29. gettough

    gettough BoltTalker

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    Well I think Sproles was a third round level comp pick and Laboy was the last pick in the draft level comp pick so we should have gotten at least a fifth. I know it doesnt work that way but that is how I feel.
     
  30. SuperCharger92

    SuperCharger92 BoltTalker

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    7th round pick...... not suprised...... :whistling:
     

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