Discussion in 'NFL Draft' started by NORV4LIFE, Nov 12, 2009.
I'm not gonna go over every damn pick in the last 15-20yrs, so lets just talk about starting RB's in the NFL today who were picked in the first 2 rounds...
Ricky Williams/Ronnie Brown
DeAngelo Williams/Jonathan Stewart (both had 1100yds rushing this year)
The starters who were not picked in the first 2 rounds.
There are players missing on both lists due to the fact that their RB situation is complete scramble.
Try to argue with that! Not only are there more 1st day RB's starting today, but their ceiling is much much higher in terms of production, versatility, durability and carrer longevity. There is absolutely no doubt in my mind the earlier picks are superior atheltes more often than the later picks, and thats why they go earlier in the first place.
Good point, but there is still plenty of depth at the RB position to find gems in the later rounds.
The positions that requires a 1st or 2nd-round commitment is cornerback...I find that most starting CBs are from R1 or R2 (heck, all 3 of our top CBs were R1 picks) and it is no surprise that AJ and other top execs recognize this trend by going after them as a priority.
I almost included pass rushers in the assessment, but Harrison, Woodley, Allen, Kampman, and others are elite rushers found in depth rounds (or were flat-out undrafted). Heck, although he was IRed early this season, I liked what I saw from Jyles in his short career.
Ask almost any coach in the league how they plan to structure their backfield - they're going to want a running back by committee look.
Like I said - look at the stats. If you're too lazy, that's your problem. In the past 20 yrs., there are as many Day One RB's that you've likely never heard of as there are hits.
We have a good offense in place. We can ignore the lines, & particularly on defense, to our peril. Play it however you like, but strong teams are built from the inside out & we have some interior strengthening to do.
One more thing - check the depth at RB in this draft vs. the depth at DT/DE. Much more bang for the buck in the trenches this year.
You want to draft a 1st round RB? Fine .... but this sure as hell isn't the year to do it.
I never suggested that drafting a RB in round 1 meant he needed to be our one and only starter. To be percise, I said I'd like to see us take Best in RD 1 and Blount in RD 4 or 5 or whenever really......so your point is noted.
As far as needing to draft interior linemen our positions of need are obviously RT and NT.
RT....Clary was improving FAST, and Dombrowski has definatly earned a right to challenge for the starting spot next year. That said I think it downgrades our immediate need at this position. I'd be perfectly fine with waiting till our 2nd round pick to grab another RT knowing that it could be wasted if Dombrowski turns out to be awesome.
NT.....If Jamal and Bingham come back our immediate need here drops dramatically. Espescially if as most people believe Vaughn Martin was drafted to take over for Jamal. Again waiting till RD 2 or RD 3, or even trading up to snag a falling prospect like Terrance Cody would not bother me.
RB...... LT isn't even remotely threatening anymore, and even if he doesn't retire AJ will cut him to free up the 6-8 million he wraps up to assist in re-signing VJack, McNeil and Floyd. Sproles is a specialist that can't carry the load and may very well leave us anyway if someone offers him a big contract. Bennett is 33yrs old..............so what do we got?
So basically, if we draft an OT or NT he's probably not going to see the field until 2011. If we draft a RB he's probably going to see AT LEAST 50% off the offensive snaps next year. The choice is obvious as long as we're going after SBXLV next year, which position will help us most.
As I said, DE is the only position besides RB that I could see us using a R1 on, especially with the likes of http://www.mynfldraft.com/NFL-Draft-Profiles/2010/Jason-PierrePaul lingering in the later portion of the round.
Perfect 3-4 DE.
With Nwgwabuo, Castillo, Johnson, Cesaire, Bingham all coming back next year I doubt we go 3-4 DE. I think if we get Jamal back next year your going to see a massive improvement in run defense over night. All of a sudden our DE's will look better as well as our pass rush. So if we don't go RB because one we like doesn't fall to us, I think the obvious order of need is NT/RT/OLB/DE in that order.
By the way I think if AJ can wrap up Vjack and McNeil quickly he'll use the franchise tag on Merriman and deal him to the highest bidder for less than the 1st and 3rd tag value. There SHOULD be many teams interested in a 26yr old fiery defensive pass rusher and leader, definatly could pull an extra 2nd or even late 1st round pick for us depending on how he does in the playoffs.
OK, perhaps I've gotten a bit off track here, so let me re-define my stance regarding finding a boost for our running game, irregardless of LT's ongoing status.
In the 2010 draft, beyond CJ Spiller, who I do not think will fall below the top 15, I do not see a RB that I would spend our round 1 draft pick on. In the late 2nd through 4th, yes, but not with the 1st.
I do not deny that 1st round talent, if assessed at true value, should be quality talent. Doesn't always work out that way, but it should.
Positional value for the RB in the current NFL is not that high. This is largely due to a fairly short productive shelf life, short learning curve until a back can be productive compared to other positions, & money.
In 2 years the RB draft class will be much deeper than this year's. I feel that we can maintain at least our current level of rushing production via day two picks & possibly FA.
Our front 7 needs work. I would look at an impact DT/DE/OLB as we really have no way of knowing just what will happen with Jamal, if Martin really will pan out, or if we will retain guys like Travis Johnson, Boone, or Scott. To add to that, Cesaire is now 31, correct?
The top 2 seeds in the AFC & arguably the 2 strongest teams in the NFL are ranked #'s 31 & 32 in the league in rushing. Now I like a strong running game as much as anyone, but it certainly appears that you can win games without dominating in that area.
This draft is FAR stronger in the DL class than it is in the RB class. I will stand by my take that we will likely not find our long-term solution at RB in this year's draft, but rather a stop-gap until a deeper class comes along.
I'll go ahead and play devils advocate here, and tell you two things that I believe in. I too live in ACC land, and I will go on record saying that Dwyer is going to be a superb NFL back. This is a RB by commitee era and a guy with his power and speed will be warranted in the NFL.
I will also go on record saying that there is "ABSOLUTELY NO FUKIN CHANCE IN HELL" that AJ drafts Lagarrette Blount's thug ***. The simple fact that the guy even got a second chance in college is an embarrassment to the game, and I was glad to see him fumble away any chance Oregon had in the Rose Bowl. If you really think that Blount has a shot in SD you are smoking the crack pipe.
This team 4 or 5 years ago was in the headlines all the time with character issues, and it has taken AJ until this year to correct it. He WILL NOT draft a guy who punches other players, his own players, and then walks out of the stadium trying to fight the crowd.
And if he does I will come back into this thread and tell you that I am smoking the crack pipe.
Dwyer has a place in the NFL as a role back, but he sure doesn't grade as a 1st round talent.
Some people around here have FAR TO MUCH confidence in Philip Rivers never having an off day.:yes:
I guess its just a philosophical difference. Your willing to wait for a bigger fish, and I think they need to do what makes them better more immediately.
In AJ we trust.
In fact, I would make this argument, if the RB class is not deep, does that not actually justify us using a high pick on one?
If the class were deep, that would imply that there would be lots of talent to be found in the later rounds of the draft, preventing this need. :yes:
Yeah I was thinking the same thing, but in the interest of defusing this argument I just ended with our old motto. I would also contend that just because there isn't a stud like Adrian Peterson at the head of the RB class it doesn't mean there isn't someone like MJD or Chris Johnson to be had. And its doubtfull as long as we are contenders that we'll get a Mark Ingram in the near future, we're planning on picking in the late 1st anyway so whats the point of waiting.
Nobody can tell me drafting a guy like this would be a mistake....
No way he falls to us. Bad RB draft my ***.
But mocks have Jahvid falling to us, and if he is available at 26-28, he would be worth trading up to snag.
I like best or spiller. Whoever we pick if its not blount they need to be able to catch on par with LT or sproles!
How gracious of you. :lol:
Tell me what you're going to give up to get Spiller. Best is an injury concern, IMO. The rest should be there later.
When I say deep, I mean deep in Day One caliber talent. It isn't there this year, but I do think that there are guys who can do an able job until the situation is better.
Our biggest issues aren't on offense.
32nd running the ball is a big damn issue.
Word is Jamal Williams is 100% right now and could have played for us in the playoffs, it is likely he will come back next year.
opcorn: In AJ we trust.
Indy is 31. How are they doing?
The Jets are #1. Are you siding with Rex & thinking that they have the best chance to go all the way.
Jamal is 34 & has been literally on his last legs (knees) for awhile.
You have your opinion, I have mine. To each his own. :icon_toast:
I'd just like to clarify, if we draft Terrance Cody or Dan Williams I won't exactly be cursing the world.:lol:
Getting Best worries me because of that concussion he suffered this year. That was a terrible fall, and most guys that get a concussion tend to sustain more throughout their career.
I like Spiller a lot, and even more in the return game. However, I question whether or not he is an every down back. He splits carries with Davis right now.
I would rather us get a a guy like Dwyer because of his ability to push the pile, but has deceptive speed. Dwyer is built to be an every down back in the NFL.....
However, this is all wishful thinking. AJ IMO will not even think about a RB in the first round with the history of recent backs he has pulled in later rounds. (Turner, Sproles, Tolbert....etc)
I will take size and good speed over a smaller guy with great speed. Dwyer given the right opportunity will have a longer shelf life in the NFL at his size than the other two (Barring no catastrophic injuries).
Best- 5'10" 195 lbs
Spiller-5'11" 195 lbs
Dwyer-6'0" 228 lbs
CJ Spiller, is a thick 200lbs. He reminds me so much of Chris Johnson. He plays with emotion, he fights hard for extra yards, and of course he has that 4.3 speed. He is also probably the best recieving RB in the draft since Marshall Faulk.
Jahvid Best, durability concerns are enough to drop him all the way out of the first round. I like him because he reminds me of a young LT, he is extremely patient and explodes through that first level when he gets a seam. I think he's better at hitting the hole than CJ Spiller.
Jonathan Dwyer, I've dropped dramatically on him. He's got 1 speed, he's got heavy feet and has no lateral quickness at all, and he is terrible catching passes. That said he pushes the pile, and the triple option schme may have limited his potential, I would not take him in the 1st though.
Ryan Mathews, Better inside runner than Dwyer, better ouside runner, and also a good step faster. To me he is a clone of Rashard Mendenhall, would not be dissapointed to draft him at 32 if the elite NT's are off the board.
So if the elite NTs aren't off the board, would you then prefer to get one of them as opposed to an RB?
I just think nose tackle as it stands now is a far more important need because nose tackles are only 4-5 per draft whereas there's tons of running backs all throughout the draft and quite a few late round ones turn out good.
I agree with your assessments here, especially Dwyer. Living in ACC land, I've watched a lot of him & my opinion continues to be right along the lines of what you said above.
On the NT question - having watched more of both Williams & Cody recently, Cody is definitely the far higher value of the 2.
We have 2 NTs in waiting, both of which showed me something this year. If Cody is available, there is no reason to pass on him, but we should not settle for a substandard option there when we have developing candidates for the job and Jamal around for at least 1 more year.
Well what I think doesn't really matter, its all about what AJ thinks. But in order of who I'd like us to take with our 1st round pick it goes like this.
1. CJ Spiller
2. Jahvid Best
3. Ryan Mathews
4. Dan Williams
5. Terrance Cody
And if we miss all those guys mabey Dwyer, but I wouldn't be happy about it. I don't think he fits our scheme at all, if we want a pile pusher with some versatility LeGarrett Blount is the man your looking for.
What I'd really like to see is us draft a RB at #32, trade up in the 2nd round and make an Eric Weddle like deal to nab Terrance Cody....or viceversa.
I believe that LT is past hist prime. Now days, he can be a good back up and even a good mentor for the next franchise start. Sproles might take a deal with another team in the offseason after his contract runs out and Bennett really isnt that good. LT has lost his explosiveness and is posting career lows and all signs point to getting a replacement. Im sorry LT but we have to move on.
There is no avoiding that we will also be needing a good NT and my bet is that AJ will take the best one of them in the first round. But there are rumors that baltimore might trade some draft picks for malcom floyd so we can get a RB a little later, maybe round 2 or 3.
IMO, guys like CJ Spiller, Toby Gerhart, Jahvid Best, and Jonathan Dwyer will not be around past the 25th pick. This leaves us with the choices of Anthony Dixon, Ryan Matthews, Mark Ingram, or LeGarrette Blount. All have potential to be impact starters in the NFL and with LT coaching them on the sidelines, they have massive potential.
But quite frankly, there arent a lot of teams with RB needs out there so we will be able to possibly get one of these guys even in the 2nd, 3rd, or 4th round. Plus the extra picks from baltimore...
I cant wait to see how the offseason plays out!
LT should stay. He's important as a figure with the Chargers and getting them to where they are today. That's worth some loyalty right? And he's tight with this city. Check out an article I found in the OC Register about LT and his Snug pet resort.
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