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LBC and Duffman's "Watch List"

Discussion in 'NFL Draft' started by The LBC, Sep 23, 2013.

  1. The LBC
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    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    Right now, going off the games I've seen this year where he's played against legitimate pro prospects on the opposing OL (i.e. South Carolina, BC, Miami, debatable on Va Tech), he's looked pretty pedestrian outside of the occasional splash play, a number of which have been either coverage sacks or blown assignments by the OL/RB - like 5th-round prospect career-rotation guy pedestrian. And I really don't know that he has the athleticism to contribute on ST's outside of perhaps using his length on kick-blocking units.

    If I'm taking a mid-round shot on a guy because of his length and potential athleticism, I'd roll the dice on Jeffcoat way before banking on Martin (even if Martin could be had 2 full rounds later). The issue with Jeffcoat is injury concern (yeah, I know, we've got plenty of guys with those already, but the importance is that there aren't any sort of injuries that will continue to degrade with time even after repair/surgery), though a fair number of college injuries come as a result of poor technique which means the "proneness" can be corrected to some degree.
  2. SuperCharger92
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    What's the general consensus on Andre Williams and Donte Moncrief? I know Moncrief might return for his senior year, but I like his size and frame.
  3. The LBC
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    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    Williams is a grinder - I kind of view him in the same way that I do Carlos Hyde, except I've got Hyde a shade higher because he's more proven as a pass-catcher (Williams simply doesn't have the reps to get any kind of read on his ability) and is a superior pass-blocker at the moment. Both have A LOT of wear on the tires, and in Williams' case this shoulder injury that took him out of the Syracuse game is a recurring issue, so it has to be noted. Value for him is in the 4th round, he may go as early as the 3rd because he's leading the nation in rushing. He's got Stephen Ridley (God willing without the fumblitis) potential though.

    As value picks at RB go, I'm a big proponent of both Storm Johnson and Jerome Smith.

    As to Moncrief, I'll call it now, if he runs anywhere in the 4.4's which he should (I italicize that because I figure his track speed is likely in the high 4.4's, his speed in full pads is probably more consistently 4.5-ish, but he plays plenty fast and had to slow down his routes a lot this season because Bo Wallace has a nasty habit of underthrowing his receivers... but I digress. If he runs anywhere in the 4.4's, he'll go 2nd round at worst. Moncrief is kind of a mix between our own Keenan Allen and other 2013 WR prospect DeAndre Hopkins - he's no burner, but his double-move is absolutely siiiiiiick and he makes DB's look foolish with it. One of the better catch radius in the class - if he declares... which he probably should since sticking with Wallace isn't going to help his stock any. Where he takes a lot of his similarity to KA though is that he's not a guy that's going to get you a ton of YAC (or even consistently average YAC), unless coverage is blown or the DB falls down - he's just not very elusive.
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  4. Moses
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    Question for you guys: What do you think of the 2 Florida corners (Purifoy & Roberson)?
  5. SuperCharger92
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    Both are great athletes. Fluid hips, lanky bodies. Just not as high on them as Kiper and McShay are. Think there 3-4th rounders.

    I think if we can focus on NT and OLB with our first 2 picks, guys like Cox, Wright, S. Williams, and Gilchrist will excel and get to be more aggressive with a pass rush. I'd double up on corners later in the draft, rounds 5-7, compete with our guys in camp.

    Guys I like, Andre Hal (don't know if he's still a late rounder), Bene Bewikere, Shaq Richardson, Dontae Johnson, Bennett Jackson and Ciante Evans.
  6. Moses
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    I definitely agree with OLB being the bigger need. If you don't create a consistent pass rush, it doesn't matter how good your corners are, they're gonna get beaten when the QB has all day to find his man.

    Also seeing us getting run on this season highlights the need for NT too, I don't see Cam Thomas as anything more than a rotation guy, definitely not the long term answer.

    RE: Purifoy & Roberson, what is it that the ESPN guys see in them that you don't? They both look good to me, but then I don't really know that much about college ball, still learning lol.
  7. SuperCharger92
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    I forgot who it was, but I believe on of the ESPN analysts had Purifoy 26 on their big board. Which is ridiculous to me.
    http://www.drafttek.com/Top-100-NFL-Draft-Prospects-2014.asp - I don't agree with every single thing on this site and big board, but that is one big board I do like for the most part. Where is Purifoy?

    Purifoy came into the season with high expectations coming off his So. campaign. He didn't live up to them to me. He was a terrible tackler comparing this year to last year, and was far too inconsistent in big games.

    His combine will push him into the top 50, a corner that's 6'0, and from what I heard, his lowest 40 is 4.37.
  8. The LBC
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    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    ESPN's analysts, by and large, have a "type" they like and guys that don't fit that type get pushed down the board. That type is tall, long, lanky, and athletic. It took forever for Robert Alford to even be acknowledged by them in the draft process last year, when he was apparently a hot topic among a lot of scouts (but he was only 5'10"... blah, blah, blah). You have to remember that a lot of the same guys loving Purifoy, Fuller (who I like better than Purifoy to be honest), and Justin Gilbert are the same guys who were gaga for Dre Kirkpatrick. The guy that I'm really taking a shine to, especially when you consider that he also has the size and length, is Pierre Desir (who I'm sure some people will poo-poo right away because they've never even heard of Lindenwood as a school - but how many people had heard of Nicholls State where Lardarius Webb came out of, or Shippensburg where Brent Grimes came out of, or Louisiana-Lafayette back in 2002 when Charles Tillman came out of there and they were still FCS?).
  9. Duffman57
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    Hey, LBC, i know you mentioned this over on FF, but you were talking about, if we miss on some of the higher up guys, as you called it "Carpet Bombing" the crap out of some safer later round/UDFA CB's with lower downside. Who are some of the guys you like in that situation. I know Dessir is a real option but a lot of people have been saying he's thought of MUCH more highly in scouting circles.
  10. The LBC
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    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    Andre Hal is someone I like in a Round 4-preferably-5 scenario; love Vandy's DB coaching and pedigree under Franklin. If, and that's still a major if, we shed Ron Milus (which given the way our secondary has performed this season should be a minimum change) and get someone actually capable of developing guys technically, I think there's a lot to like about Ross Cockrell out of Duke (similar upside to Chykie Brown a couple years ago, but not nearly the mental midget that Brown is). Nevin Lawson (Utah State) is undersized, but he's feisty and scrappy. That can be worked with. I still think Bennett Jackson (Notre Dame) could surprise people - he's for sure a Day 3 guy because he's not going to run outstandingly, but he's intelligent and has what appears to be a high football IQ, along with a little swagger to his play. Level of competition is obviously a question for ND State's Marcus Williams, but he's got good length, good playing speed from the looks of it, a good head on his shoulders, and ND State's defensive coaches are pretty solid so while he's no finished product, he's got good fundamentals already. And I think Keon Lyn from Syracuse could be a potential late-round steal, as long as his injuries (he fractured his kneecap in early October and I believe - have to double-check - he's had at least one long-term shoulder injury) check out, as I had a 3rd-4th round grade on him prior to the injury and it's hard to argue with his size, length, and hunger for the game.
  11. Duffman57
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    What do you think about once again, trying to go the FA rout, and finding a solid CB there, but not dishing out as much. Someone like Walter Thurmond, maybe if Alturran Verner is cheap or something like that (probably wont come cheap).

    I'm just not a huge fan of many of the CB's in this draft class, my favorite is still Bradley Roby, but behind that, i dont see a whole lot of guys that i see as more than Solid #2's. Varrett is the only one i think could be a decent #1 option other than Roby, with the outside shot at Gilbert being able to...
  12. The LBC
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    I think the concept of a #1 CB is getting to the point where it's ridiculous and almost to the point where it #1 is. Luxuries, not necessities. The guys who are going to shutdown Calvin Johnson don't exist save for one or two in the league. The guys who can slow them down are equally as rare. But so are Calvin Johnson's. Meanwhile, shutting down the Demaryious Thomas's, Antonio Brown's, Jordy Nelson's (i.e. the non-elite "#1's") doesn't require a massively high ceiling so much as a better understanding of the game, scheme, and positional awareness. And the way to slowing down the elites is through the guy throwing them the ball. I mean, hell, Jimmy Graham is a scarier receiver than some of the #1's in the league and Aqib Talib utterly shut him down earlier this season through clean technique, smart play, and position awareness.

    CB's still command a premium on the open market - they just do. Look at what guys like Greg Toler got this year. Unless you're taking one or two year fliers on aging vets - and that doesn't appear to be a philosophy our FO is keen on until all other options have been exhausted and the need still remains (e.g. Marshall) - there really aren't "deals" for FA CB's.
  13. Duffman57
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    This is why i love Terrance Mitchell so much. He's not the best height/weight and pure speed guy (will probably end up somewhere around 5'11" 190 with around a 4.50 40) but the dude has incredible awareness in zone and incredibly solid feet and technique, as well as good quickness in and out of his breaks to close. I would still love to pick him up in the 3rd or 4th (i think he drops a bit because so many people look for huge upside CB's, and he really isn't one), if he comes out that is.
  14. SuperCharger92
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    Really liking Dontae Johnson as a 4th-5th rounder. Can play CB, Nickel CB, and FS/SS effectively. Versatility is similar to former NC State player David Amerson who came out last year. About the same measurables too.

    Very good technique too, tackles exceptionally well, something that is needed on this team defense.
  15. SuperCharger92
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    Also, liking Allen Robinson from Penn State in the 2nd round for us. Need a dual threat WR to tandem with Allen. Robinson looks to be that guy, already in a pro-style offense under Bill O'Brien, he has power, speed and strength. Also comes with good size and fluidity and snatches the ball out of the air.
  16. Moses
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    I'd love this pick. I think he'll be selected earlier than most project now, he has good speed and strong hands, it wouldn't surprise me at all if he ended up in the back end of the first round.
  17. SuperCharger92
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  18. matilack
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    matilack #therealagent47

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    Alright I'm gonna start digging in.

    I need a position group to start with....
  19. SuperCharger92
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    WR, OLB, NT/DE, CB.. either or lol

    I've dug in quite a bit on CBs, also WR. Need to look more at OLBs and NT/DEs..

    I don't understand why some think the CB class is weak. I see at least 4-5 elite prospects, and many more with very good upside if put in the right scheme.

    But I don't think we need CBs until later rounds to come in a compete. I think getting depth in our front 7 is key so we can get pressure. That will strengthen our DBs play. Getting Steve Williams back will be a plus, Shareece Wright is picking it up, Marcus Gilchrist absolutely disrupted Thursday night's game at Nickel CB. Derek Cox's play will pick up with a pass rush, though he's on thin ice. Want to see what Marcus Cromartie is all about too, if he gets any time, which if we're eliminated Sunday, we should throw him out there see what he has.
  20. matilack
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    matilack #therealagent47

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    Decided to start with OLBs, the guy who stands out to me and just pops off the screen is Vic Beasley. When people were gushing about Mingo last year (garbage) this is more like what I expected to see, its speed we just haven't had on D in a while.

    Trent Murphy seems like the more complete NFL ready package, but Beasley has the raw talent to be an elite pass rusher IMO.
  21. SuperCharger92
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    Yup agree here.

    I think Beasley will fall to us, I really wish Mack did, but thats a long shot. But if he did fall to us, I wouldn't even waste a second thinking about other options. Mack is going to be a force in this league.
  22. matilack
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    matilack #therealagent47

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    Yeah well we thought Von Miller might fall to us at 18 too, until the senior bowl and combine happened. :confused: I think Beasley is a similar player, over time he will bulk up and improve against the run.

    Van Noy is a similar player, but a B option IMO
  23. SuperCharger92
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    And we didn't really anticipate Melvin Ingram falling to us as well. The draft is unpredictable. But I've actually see some scouts giving him a late 1st round-early 2nd round grade, that doesn't mean much, as their are Bowl games, Senior Bowl, Combine, and his pro-day left.
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  24. The LBC
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    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    Murphy's a tough cookie to gauge - and I've been back and forth over him several times already with one of my close friends from draftfalcons.com. He insists that he sees nothing on tape that makes Murphy more than a mid Day 2 prospect; I'm sticking by my faith that GM's and coaches in the league value production quite highly and that Murphy's likely to sell himself extremely well in the interview room and in front of the whiteboard.

    He's not an elite athlete - though I do think he'll run and test better than some seem to expect him to; and I've seen evidence in the games he's played in that suggest that while his 40-time may come in the 4.7's, he has more than adequate short-distance/closing speed to play the position at the pro level. Good instincts make up for lack of ideal straight line speed, and Murphy's instincts are quite good. Let's not let instincts be confused with snap-anticipation, which is something he needs to work on becoming more consistent with, but that can be worked upon (and at worst, when he's off it's usually half a beat late rather than half a beat early - the later which would result in a slew of 5-yard gift penalties). Personal opinion on this bit, but I think his development has stagnated a little because he's been with the same LB for so long - a fresh pair of eyes and hands could help him with his pass-rushing move variance and more specifically to increase the frequency of his power-moves. Too often of late, he's tried to get too fancy and beat guys with speed even when he gets good leverage. All the same, the guy led the FBS in sacks this year with inconsistent get-off and technique. My friend disagrees, but I see another Ryan Kerrigan when I watch Murphy.

    Beasley is an interesting case. Duffy likes him more than I do, which isn't a slight on Vic because I like him as well. I find a little more difficulty projecting him moving forward is all, because (at least I believe) it's like projecting Von Miller as a 3-4 OLB. I'm certainly confident that he can play the position, but I don't know that it's his best fit right out the gate, largely because it's going to take some time to refine his run-defense so that he's not a liability. That said, if he's not expected to be a three-down backer from Day One, and can be used in largely as a pass-rush specialist initially and brought along as a complete player with time, I'm quite comfortable with him. The guy plays bigger than he is - that's in part due to length (specifically in the arms) and in part because he's one of those rare smaller guys who have "farm strength" (not that I have any knowledge of Vic ever growing up on a farm, it's simply the commonly used term for such a trait of natural strength). I'm not saying they're identical prospects, but I see some Clay Matthews (largely the chip-on-the-shoulder, "everyone tells me I'm too small to succeed" attitude/mindset) in Beasley. His technique needs refining; in a way it's rather frustrating because despite their positive track record for producing effective NFL pass-rushers, Clemsons DL prospects consistently come out of that program with really rough technique that takes time to iron out at the next level. For the moment, I think Beasley is more Chris Clemons than Clay Matthews, but he plays meaner than Clemons does, he appears to want it more. So I feel a bit more comfortable expecting him to be more than what Clemons has largely been (a pure pass-rush specialist) and more along the lines of what Clemons' eventual successor is: Bruce Irvin.
  25. The LBC
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    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    I do like Sutton quite a bit. I just have trouble projecting him into our current scheme, same as I do with one of my other favorite DL prospects in this draft Aaron McDonald. Both are much more natural 3-Technique players (I think McDonald could even pull a Derrick Wolfe and rotate back and forth between LDE and UT in a 4-3 front to exploit matchups), who could play 1-gapping 5-Tech roles, but would see a lot of their better assets wasted there. In the case of Sutton he just doesn't have the length (short arms to go along with short height) to play in the 3-4 all that effectively. I think he's another Geno Atkins - a guy who is going to get knocked for lack of ideal height/length, but put in the correct scheme fit and he'll light the league on fire come his 2nd or 3rd season.
  26. The LBC
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    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    [​IMG]
    Beau Allen // NT/NG // Wisconsin
    6'2.5" . 335 lbs.

    I've been keeping a close eye lately on the accepted invitations for the Senior Bowl and East/West Shrine Game and one of the guys I'll be keeping a particular eye on in the later is Allen. This is a 1-gap NT prospect; with experience in the 3-4 which Wisconsin switched to this past season. It took Allen a little to adjust, and yes, his "sexy stats" dipped from last season to the most recent one (largely because he was playing the 0-Tech versus the 1-Tech in their previous 4-man front), but he and MLB Chris Borland remained Wisconsin's two most disruptive defensive forces. The guy doesn't just get push, he gets into the backfield consistently. He is smart as hell (Academic All-American, I can see comparisons mental acuity-wise between him and Hardwick, when Nick was a prospect). He's one of those "dirty work in the trenches" types, that plays mean with a high-motor (you know, kind of the antithesis of Cam Thomas). He's not ranked terribly high by most of the online pundits, which may change depending on his post-season showings, but I'm pegging him as someone akin to John Hughes out of Cincinnati back in 2012 who snuck into the 3rd round, and has paid dividends for Cleveland's defense since. He's not Louis Nix, make no mistake, but he's capable of being comparable to an Isaac Sopoaga, meaner version of Ricky Jean-Francois.
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  27. The LBC
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    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    I like Robinson, but I'm not wholly convinced his value is as high for us (given where he'll likely go mid-to-high 2nd) unless he were to fall similar to how Keenan Allen did. Particularly when we run a system that doesn't require elite receiving options (though it can certainly take advantage of them when afforded them). Unless the value on the board at areas of greater need is just pitiful at the time, I'd bemoan spending a 2nd round pick on a receiver at the expense of our defense or continuing to bolster our offensive trench. Particularly when you can find a similarly useful prospect late on Day 2 or early on Day 3 in, for instance, in Troy's Eric Thomas (I have a 4th round tab on him right now, largely because this receiver class is pretty stacked and he'll get pushed down the board if for no other reason than he plays in the Sun Belt conference which only sees about 6 prospects per season drafted on average) who has quicks the like of Randall Cobb (literally, you slow down the tape to watch his technique on his cuts and they're a blur... he's that quick in and out of his breaks) and really soft hands. The only catch I haven't seen Thomas consistently field cleanly is the over-the-shoulder grab, which largely is Allen's route anyway in our scheme, every other route he runs pristinely, and makes quality adjustments to the ball to make the catch.
  28. matilack
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    matilack #therealagent47

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    Murphy - I agree, I think he's better against the run and therefore will probably get more snaps as a rookie, but I see a limited upside due to athletic ability and to be specific...burst around the edge. His initial move off the line is not overwhelming by any means, so he leans on cuts back to the inside and hand fighting to shed blocks and pursue. He seems like a safe pick but not my favorite.

    Beasley - I see a quick twitch athlete with room to add bulk, and a solid kid with a good head on his shoulders. I also think he has enough moves and counter moves that he's not just a hustle and high effort pass rusher like English was, but a guy who will actually win off the snap with his feet first, and then his strength as he develops. And yes he plays hard, if not a little out of control at times. I'm not so worried about his production as a rookie (TT says Freeney will be back anyway, and who better to learn from?) it's big picture where this kid pays dividends. After doing this I'm not convinced he'll fall past 16, especially if he has a good pre draft process.
  29. The LBC
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    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    If he doesn't fall then Mack will. I know the internet pundits are blowing up about Mack, but there is still something of a bias where small schools and Top 10 picks are concerned among a good number of front offices. Then throw in that there are more viable 1st round QB prospects this year than last and guys will get pushed down the board (I'm also of the opinion that savvy GM's of teams running 4-3 formations will prefer CJ Mosley and his versatility - and plus athleticism - to guys like Beasley and Mack who are largely limited to playing one OLB position and some "move-around" detail as a "opportunistic pass-rusher", so he likely goes before at least one and quite possibly both of them.

    There's another guy that - should teams choose to value pure athleticism and potential over character questions (and with it being a "copycat league" and the outright success Justin Houston was having prior to his injury, it's possible we see an increase in those willing to take the plunge), Aaron Lynch could vault himself over both these two as a pure pass-rusher with a good combine that he is very capable of posting. He's the early odds-on favorite to be 2014's Ezekiel Ansah.
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  30. SuperCharger92
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    I think Sutton could play in our current scheme. He's played over the C, 1-tech, A-gap, 3-tech and also as a 5-tech, 3-4 DE. There's so much versatility in his play. The swim move is quite scary, the explosiveness off the snap, the quick hands and holds up against double teams. He struggles anchoring against the run though, and if he doesn't win at the point of attack, he's not going to win at all.

    For a guy under 300 lbs, he can hold his own. I think he's a late 1st rounder-early 2nd rounder.

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