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LBC and Duffman's "Watch List"

Discussion in 'NFL Draft' started by The LBC, Sep 23, 2013.

  1. Jesse Kemp
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    Jesse Kemp BoltTalker

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    This post seems to be a great illustration of why it's probably unwise to count on a 6'6" player being your starting nose tackle. Also, I see you reference player heights down to the 10th of an inch every so often. How do you know their measurements with such specificity?
  2. SuperCharger92
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    WR Chris Boyd out of Vandy, can anybody get any more info that I don't already have on him.
  3. Boltjolt
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    Boltjolt Well-Known Member

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    Most of those guys never played in a 3-4.

    *Randy Starks never played for the Cowboys or Wade or in a 3-4. Wades NTs in Houston are 6'3" and 6'2"
    *Randy White never played in a 3-4 as a NT. Didnt play in a 3-4 period.
    *Klecko never played in 3-4. Bud Carson plays a 4-3 defense though they have one of their DT's listed as a NT but it is a 4-3 defense and what Joe Green played in Pittsburgh under Carson.
    *Sam Adams never played in a 3-4 defense. When he was with Baltimore in 2000-2001, they ran a 4-3 under Marvin Lewis and he and Sirogusa were the DTs.

    *Soliai is ok but isnt one of the best 3-4 NTs to play it.
    *Shaun Rogers only played NT in Cleveland and wasnt near as effective as he was a DT. He wasnt one of the best NT's.
    Damon Harrison was measured at 6'2.5" at the combine http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=108265&draftyear=2012&genpos=DT

    *Jenkins was a All Pro in 2002 & 2003 playing in a 4-3 under Herm Edwards teams and Ted Cottrell was the DC then but Herm had him run a 4-3 defense. But he did make the probowl in 2008 in a 3-4 at NT.
    *Poe and Jamal...ok, though Jamal was way better.
    Last edited: Jan 12, 2014
  4. The LBC
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    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    I was citing guys that play the 0-Tech. This is how outside the box thinking works. If a player can play the 0-Tech and consistently take on double-teams, and still succeed, explain to me how that differs so greatly from the functions of a 3-4 NT that it makes that player wholly inaccurate for a comparison.

    Shaun Rogers was a legitimate pro bowl player - at a time before the Pro Bowl turned into a glorified popularity contest - as a a 3-4 NT in Cleveland. Sam Adams very much played the 0-Tech NT role in both Seattle and Buffalo. And Joe Klecko's role in Carson's 4-3 was the epitome of what a 1-gap 3-4 NT is asked to do: Space eater and run stuffer who took advantage of the times he wasn't double-teamed to shoot the gap and rush the passer.

    Randy White played nose guard in Landry's three-man front. Again... the 0-Tech, lined up directly over the center. The game, especially the game today, is less about the specific formation and more about the ability to function in the assignment given (where you line up, which gaps are your assignment, and what roles you're expected to fulfill).

    On Randy Starks, I confused him with Jason Ferguson (the replaced by Ratliff part was my hangup) who played NT for Parcells' Cowboys and was brought along to play the nose when Parcells was made football czar of the Dolphins. Ferguson was 6'3. As was another Jets NT who anchored some damn good defensive fronts that we faced in the playoffs - Sione Pouha (also 6'3"). However, Randy Starks has clocked a good number of productive reps at NT for the Phins (6 starts at the position for the Phins in 2010 and 2011).

    And if you're going to tell me Kris Jenkins in his time as NT for that Jets D wasn't great, I don't know what to tell you? In 2008 he was flat out dominant and was a legitimate contender for DPOY.
  5. The LBC
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    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    The difference between a 6'4" player and a 6'5" player if both can bend their knees properly is pretty negligible; it's not like we're talking about the difference between a 6'4" player and a 6'1" player.

    Also the info's readily available on a number of sites whose representatives attend the spring workouts of college programs where players measure, run, etc. They just tend to give the fractional number that college programs in their (dagnabbit I've got to repeat the word) game programs round up to the nearest whole number. DraftnikCentral.com is the one I've found to be the most consistent; The Sports Exchange (which actually uses the domain nfldraftscout.com even though CBSFootball's scouting site has a redirect from the domain address - I really don't know how they pulled that off) is more extensive but I've run into some inconsistencies from them more often.

    Moreover, when these guys go to postseason games like the Senior Bowl, Shrine Game, etc. they measure them all there and many of the internet-based draftniks are typically more than willing to upload a copy of the formal spreadsheet with all the official measurements to Google Docs and pass the link along to anyone who requests it. Tom Melton was a great resource for this last year. Josh Norris is also really great about freely passing along this info.
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  6. Jesse Kemp
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    Ah, I see.

    In any case, I tend to think that the lack of good 3-4 NT's in the league (out of Washington) over 6'4" means that there something to it. I could be wrong (there isn't a huge sample size of 6'5"+ interior linemen to begin with), so we'll see. But Hageman strikes me as a 3 or 5 technique who might be a fit as the shade in a 4-3. Reminds me of Brockers when he was coming out of LSU.

    But like you said, these are the "outside the box" ideas. But the more I talk NT's in this class, the more I hope that we sign a FA. Nix is unlikely to be there at 25, and if he is then that probably means that his knees are troublesome (kind of a catch 22 there), Jernigan won't be ready for more than spot duty for at least a while, and beyond him it's all projects as far as I can see.
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  7. Boltjolt
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    Boltjolt Well-Known Member

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    Im not really interested in getting into a huge debate on this but you cant compare some of those guys to today. Randy White played on a 4-3 based "flex defense" of Landrys and they lined up different and not at all like todays defenses. He also played in a era where a 300 lb linemen really didnt exist. Ed Too Tall Jones was only 271 lbs at 6'9".

    Joe Green at 275 lbs was considered a big guy and the Steel Curtains biggest lineman. Now that guy is undersized to play DE for us.

    I just dont think those defenses compare. And also Starks may have played some snaps at NT due to injury but his first two years in Miami they ran a 3-4 and he was a DE. That dont make him one of the best.
  8. Duffman57
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    Duffman57 BoltTalker

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    At what point do you think Nix would need to fall to for us to (or would you) consider trading up for him? Would you give up a 2nd round pick to trade up and get him, or would you rather sit back and try to explore other options, like Jernigan or whatnot.
  9. Moses
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    Moses Yeah Buddy!

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    So, looks like our draft spot is set now.
    Personally, I wouldn't trade up for him. Not because I know enough about him to tell you he's a bust or anything like that, but because I think we have a few different positional needs to address, and with that in mind, at 25 I think that we can afford to (within reason) take the best player available to us. I know the NT position is an area of need, but I couldn't justify giving up a second to address one need when we have multiple holes to fill.

    If Nix was that much of a "can't miss" type, he'd likely go top 10, and therefore cost a lot to come up and get.
  10. Boltjolt
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    Boltjolt Well-Known Member

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    Depends on what we do in FA'cy and his medical reports which we will never know.

    Wired via Nexus 5
  11. The LBC
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    It's because he reminds me of Brockers that I think he could do it. Otherwise I wouldn't want him anywhere near the position. Brockers, IMO, would beast as a 3-4 NT. Does it play to his skillset in the most complete way? No. But unlike a lot of the guys who are the more "prototypical" 3-4 NT's (the short, squatty fireplugs) he's also capable of being more than a 2-down player (and yes, the Steelers were pulling Hampton on passing downs a good amount; before his injury New England had Wilfork out for passing downs around half the time this year and last year). That's why there are benefits as well as concerns with looking at an outside the box type.

    A guy that may be a little less of a risk - if only because he'd cost a lower investment (likely a 3rd round pick versus a low 1st or wing-and-a-prayer 2nd) and who has experience playing the 0-Tech in college (and has also been up to as much as 329 lbs in his playing career) is LSU's Anthony Johnson. Similar to Hageman he's someone that already plays with really great pad level, but his handwork needs some serious work. Fix the hands and have him split the difference on his college weights (up to around 315) and that's a 1-gapping NT that can be worked with.

    Reality is if Pagano is brought back (evidently his contract is up, but with the players rallying for him and Dean being such a big "continuity" proponent, he's likely coming back) we'll be using a heavy rotation at the position regardless - because that's what Pagano does.
  12. Jesse Kemp
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    Anthony Johnson isn't a bad idea.

    But I would point out that in those cases of the base defense NT getting pulled on passing downs, they weren't being replaced by another nose tackle per se. At least not the majority of the time. Typically the defense was going to a 4 man front nickel without anyone playing a 0 or shade.

    But we were weakest at nose in the base defense this season. Too easy to run on our 3-4 alignment on early downs. So we need someone who can fill that role. If Hageman can play the 1 or 3 in passing situations, but can't hold up over center on running downs, I don't know that he helps us all that much over what we already have.
  13. Jesse Kemp
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    Jesse Kemp BoltTalker

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    My issue with Nix is that it seems like he's only falling to 25 if his knees are a legitimate concern. Otherwise, he's going top 16 in all likelihood. So either he's healthy and we want him and can't get him or he's not healthy and we maybe don't want him even if we can get him.

    Catch 22...
  14. The LBC
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    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    Hageman's run defense has actually been pretty good. Needs to do a better job not getting turned by blockers, and had some moments this season where he was blown off the LOS, but just about all of it was due to bad handwork (lack of activity and fighting to get the inside/chest plate) than anything else. Ultimately though, I'll take guys with technical flaws like handwork/placement and lacking pass-rush moves (which Hageman really does) over guys with questionable pad-level (one of my biggest concerns with guys like Carreathers), as the former is definitely coachable whereas the later may or may not be (could be a case of the guy just not being a proper knee-bender and lacking requisite flexibility which is much harder to retrain).
  15. Duffman57
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    Duffman57 BoltTalker

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    True with Nix, it is likely that he only drops near us if his injury concerns scare away people. But the knee injury he has won't threaten his ability to play at a high level, but the longevity of his career. If people are scared of it, it mostly just means its a setback in his rehab of the injury (or healing more slowly), which would just mean that he probably isn't able to play in Minicamps, but he would be back for TC just fine. The biggest reason for people to avoid him would be the concern of future injury, which doesn't necessarily mean that his injury is a problem, but there's something about big guys coming off knee injuries that scares everyone away, whether its major or not...
  16. Duffman57
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    Duffman57 BoltTalker

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    I agree with this, but the more i look at it, the better option seems to be getting a rotational run stuffer (basically what we did with Franklin a few years ago), trying to develop another guy like Geathers or Jerideau (who i'm interested to see if he could develop).
  17. Duffman57
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    Senior bowl weigh ins were today...some pretty impressive results...

    Jeremiah Attouchu came in at 6'3.5" and 252lbs with right at 33" arms, which is pretty average all around for a 34 OLB.

    Marcus Smith came in at 6'3.5" and 258 and 33.25" arms. Once again, pretty much average numbers for a pass rusher.

    Another interesting one that i think LBC highlighted earlier in this thread, Chris Smith, who came in at 6'1" and change, but at 266, and a very impressive (especially for his height) 34 1/8" arm length.

    Looks like there's quite a few guys who could bump up to the 1st or 2nd round range for us to grab a pass rusher.
  18. The LBC
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    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    It's possible Jerideau is a guy who could be developed. I'm not sold on Geathers in the slightest - he's almost a mirror image of Cam Thomas, just bigger - same questionable motor, some questionable work ethic, same limited lateral mobility, same lack of contribution as a pass-rusher, and neither wins leverage battles effectively. Geathers might have more value if we more often two-gapped and needed him just to eat blockers, but our schemes appears to deploy far more one-gap concepts and Geathers just doesn't fit there.

    Personally, I'm fine on just picking up someone like Ryan Pickett to be a "starter-in-name" as he can still be an effective early-down run stuffer and anchor, and seeing what we've got with Jerideau and Lissemore behind him. Jerideau's even got his year of PS eligibility left, so if there's late round value in someone who could be developed a la what Damon Harrison did with the Jets - go for it. But more times than not, the impactful NT's are drafted in the 1st round (and still have to be developed some). If that's a buck we want to pass to 2015 when we have more cap space and hopefully less holes to fill (and possibly a better draft pool to draw from with if underclassmen like Dukes, McCarthy, Carter, or Tupou declare, in addition to Moala who is already set to be in the class).
  19. SuperCharger92
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    SuperCharger92 BoltTalker

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    https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2014/01/01/2014-free-agent-interior-d-linemen/

    I'd prefer a handful of guys before Ryan Pickett, though GB's DL was trash, even Raji played very bad this season.

    I'd like to see Geathers possibly as a DE.
  20. Duffman57
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    But all those guys are going to cost money we dont have. Pickett is the exact type of guy we need, a rotational run stuffer (similar to how we used Franklin 2 years ago), who can take some snaps as a true 0T or a 1T.
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  21. Devo
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    Players I am interested in and would not mind seeing drafted:

    OL:
    Zack Martin, Notre Dame (could play LT or OG)
    David Yankey, Stanford (best OG in draft, in my opinion)
    Weston Richburg, Colo. State (best C and Hardwick is probably leaving)

    OLB/DE/Pass Rusher:
    Trent Murphy, Stanford
    Dee Ford, Auburn
    Scott Crichton, Oregon State
    Prince Shembo, Notre Dame

    CB:
    Justin Gilbert, Ok. State (This is my top choice in the draft for SD because he's tall 6'0" and returns kickoffs)
    Terrance Mitchell, Oregon
    Deion Belue, Alabama

    NT:
    Timmy Jernigan, FSU
    Dominique Easley, Florida
    Caraun Reid, Princeton

    RB:
    James White, Wisconsin
    Antonio Andrews, Western Kentucky
    Storm Johnson, UCF
    Lorenzo Taliaferro, Coastal Carolina

    WR:
    Allen Robinson, Penn State
    Josh Huff, Oregon
    Dri Archer, Kent State
  22. The LBC
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    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    Just updating on a prospect I mentioned earlier in the thread, Troy WR Eric Thomas officially measured in at just a shade over 6'0", 214 lbs., with ELEVEN-INCH HANDS - those are the biggest hands of any all-star game participant receiver and the same size as Hakeem Nicks' hands. This is the same guy that's just lightning quick into and out of his breaks. I'll take him on Day 3 with cheese on top and be an incredibly happy man. Officially adding him to my Day 3 want list along with Duke CB Ross Cockrell (the guy who has tons of potential and shut down Kelvin Benjamin this year).
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  23. SuperCharger92
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    SuperCharger92 BoltTalker

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    Yeah I'll take both on Day 3 as well.

    What do you think of taking pass rusher back to back round 2 & 3? I'd go Marcus Smith and Will Clarke. I like Will Clarke as an OLB/DE when Pagano goes 4-3 under. Clarke can play OLB though, he has that athleticism to me, he has those long arms that doesn't allow OTs to get a grip of his pads which I like.
  24. Boltjolt
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    Boltjolt Well-Known Member

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    Depends on what happens in FA'cy and who they release and keep. We can use another DE, but a 3-4 DE.
  25. SuperCharger92
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    Yeah I understand that one because we have contracts to settle with both Liuget and Reyes back to back. I would love to keep both but highly unlikely.. Of the 2, we definitely need to retain Liuget. He's actually younger and just provides more. I think we should groom Geathers to be a DE rather a NT. But, I like Guy/Lissemore moving to DE in place of Reyes.
  26. Boltjolt
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    Boltjolt Well-Known Member

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    I also like DeAndre Coleman. Huge dude and a good run stuffer. More a 5th rounder. I dont know if Reyes and Luiget will command big money. Reyes isnt a FA till after 2015 though and all the big dollar messes will be off the books. No dead money, Freeney will be off the books and Johnsons contract expires that season too.

    Honesly not sure if we want to keep both right now. They both need to play better.
  27. The LBC
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    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    I need to see Clarke workout before I feel comfortable on him; just haven't seen enough tape. And if we're going to go back-to-back PR's (which isn't a terrible idea, but I don't see it as necessary unless one of them is akin to an OLB/ILB hybrid or a SOLB/5-tech/43LDE type) I'd feel much more comfortable taking a high-floor guy and swinging for the fences on a astronomical ceiling/needs-polish guy. The beauty of Melvin is that he can be moved around a ton and still be effective (strong-side, weakside, stunting the A- and B-gaps), so if we're bringing in two additional edge-rushers, you'd like one of them to be versatile enough to do the exact same thing so that it keep opposing QB's and OC's guessing as to who is coming and when (Rex Ryan exploited this a TON when he was the Ravens' DC, same with Ray Horton when he was DC in Arizona).

    The thing is, the meat of the CB depth of this class is in the early 2nd to early/mid-4th round. Throw in that we showed a lot of 3-safety looks this season (sometimes out of necessity, but it was often pretty effective - so if it ain't broke...) to allow Gilchrist to still drop down and play the slot. So I'm expecting a DB somewhere in the first 3 picks (possibly two), and the soundest strategy to hitting that approach and doing well is to get the pass-rusher early and have the flexibility of deciding in the 2nd and 3rd which offers better value - the safety, the corner, or the additional flex-pass-rusher. I've only seen who we met with at the Senior Bowl (and bear in mind, we didn't draft a single guy we visited with from that game last year) and not the Shrine Game, but a guy like Tre Boston in the 3rd or 4th round could really add to our defense as a guy who can play the single-high and roam deep (which isn't Addae's strength and really not Gilchrist's either).

    I'm calling it now, if a major conference edge-rushing prospect (namely SEC or Pac-12 since those seem to be Telesco's go-to conferences even going back to Indy) that has a better-than-expected workout at the combine and he falls to us in the 1st round - he's coming off the board right there. This will be the draft if we see whether or not Telescopo is Polian Jr. or not, because Polian could NEVER resist drafting a DB when it was a remotely pressing need.
  28. The LBC
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    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    Debatable on that. I actually think Reyes has the higher ceiling - but Liuget may have endeared himself more to the staff by this point. Ultimately, it may come down to whether or not one drastically out produces the other next season. We're going to have a crap-ton of cap-room (at least in terms of what we're used to seeing as fans) in 2015, so it's not unthinkable that we could extend both... just not likely (in most high-end 3-4 front 3's you almost always have one guy playing on a rookie/small-money deal till the trio is ultimately split up; the antithesis to that was always Pittsburgh's front 3, but the Steelers very rarely delved into free agency at all, so all their cap-room went to signing rookies, depth players, and re-upping their own).

    Geathers is a two-gapper with poor knee bend. Really, the more and more I watch him the more and more he reminds me of a larger version of Cam Thomas - and not in a good way. If we continue to press 1-gapping principles, I don't see where he fits long-term.

    Late round DL prospects we could look to: Jay Bromley (my own wishful-thinking that he falls; I'm convinced once he works out at the combine his stock is going to jump because his tape is solid), either of the Cal guys (Coleman or Moala), George Uko (again, after workouts I can see him going as high as Day 2, but it's a congested class with all this underclassmen declaring), Brent Urban, Taylor Hart, Ben Gardner (undersized right now, but I think his future lies at beefing up to play pro-sized 5-Tech versus trying to play 4-3 LDE or undersized UT).
  29. Duffman57
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    Hart is the ultimate 2 Gapping 5T. Completely goes unnoticed for the absolute best reasons. Brent Urban is flying WAY under the radar right now, but i feel like he goes from 3-5th round come draft day, his tape is really good. Im really interested in Moala. Aparently Coleman refused to play anything but NT this year, forcing Cal to kick Moala out to the 5T, but he was an absolute force when he was in there. He's a guy i could see dropping and Telesco scooping up and laughing his way to the bank with Moala. Coleman could be interesting, but he seems like he's gotta have things his way, though thats based off a limited sample, and from what i've been around at UO, if there's one thing i've learned its that the public hears maybe 1% of whats actually going on.

    Also, its a shame Chris McCain and Chris Martin are such poor characters because they had so much upside as pass rushers....both could've been real late round steals.

    This staff seems bent on getting whatever best player is available and from there having the coaches fit the scheme around the players, which is fine as long as you have the right staff. That scares me a bit on D, but i'm confident in our Off Coaching staff.

    Also, i was looking back through the OLs that Joe D has put together in the past, and i recognized a few trends....

    First: No OT that he's drafted (Other than Ed Wang, who i think was drafted as an OG for Buff) has had under 35" arms (Chris Hairston at 35.25", Glenn at 35.5" (i think, forgot exact #), and Fluker at 36.75", even Nick Becton has over 35" arms, once again forget the extact #). He has a HUGE preference for lengthy, big and quick footed OTs. Many people are going to advocate for big guys as his preference, but guys who are big and dont have the length aren't a great fit. I pinpointed Nick Becton as a target for us either late in the draft or early in UDFA's last year, but he seems like a perfect project OT for Joe D who could turn out VERY good, because he has all the attributes of a Joe D OT (quick feet, big body, LENGTH) but just needs technical refining, which Joe D does as well as anybody in the business. I think that we keep Mike Harris on as a backup OG/OT next year and keep Becton as a OT.

    At OG, he prefers a couple of things. Usually there are two types of guys he looks for. In either type of guy he likes at OG, he prefers them to be very technically sound, preferrably in a ZBS, but not always applicable. One is a former college OT who is athletic and can get out in space. You can see this with Levitre in buffalo, and even though he wasn't a former OT, while he was the a. OL coach in KC, he really liked Asamoah IIRC. Those were the guys he usually had at the LG spot. The second type was the physical road grading type, but again usually these guys were from big technical OL producing schools like Wiscy or Alabama who run that power zone scheme, but max out the players' technique so they really come into the NFL very polished.

    As for C, Its hard to tell because while he's been an OL coach, the C has already been established. But he seems like a guy who wants a very smart C who doesn't necessarily need to be a real physical blocker, like the rest of the interior OL needs to know their assignment and be athletic enough to wall them off and create a lane for the RBs, but again, this is just estimating from the types of C's hes already had in the past (Woods and Hardwick are pretty similar styles of C, but it may just be a coincidence of who he got)

    But one thing is for sure....I trust whatever and whoever this man chooses for this OL....no doubt about it.
  30. SuperCharger92
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    SuperCharger92 BoltTalker

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    I think we should double up on OLBs or tweeners, I love Marcus Smith and Demarcus Lawrence as 2nd rounders, but I really like Will Clarke. If he runs a sub 4.8 I think he could be a situational pass rusher and be very effective.

    I would like,

    1. CB/OLB
    2. OLB/CB
    3. OLB/WR
    4. WR/RB
    5. RB/NT
    6. NT/OL
    7. OL/DE
    Last edited: Jan 25, 2014

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