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new updated mock draft

Discussion in 'NFL Draft' started by charger1993, Nov 23, 2012.

  1. Bolts4lyfe
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    Bolts4lyfe BoltTalker

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    Lets say we have the 9th pick,

    Players drafted
    DE/OLB Jarvis Jones, Damontre Moore, and Barkevious Mingo
    OT Luke Joeckel,
    NT/DT Star Lotueilei and Johnathan Hankins
    ILB Mati Teo
    QB Geno Smith

    CB Demarcus Milliner, OT Taylor Lewan, and ILB Alec Ogletree (love this kid, just don't know if 9 if too high to take, but its now or never) are all sitting waiting for their name to be called.

    Who do you take and why? No Trades.
  2. AnteaterCharger
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    AnteaterCharger Calibrating Bolttalk, Podcast by Podcast Staff Member Super Moderator Podcaster

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    Some of it would depend on what we do in FA and I have to imagine we would hit our areas of need then too. I'd likely choose Milliner over Lewan unless the tackles in the draft start shooting up the board (and this turns into an OT run). I'd also seriously consider trading down as I'm sure someone wants to trade up at that point
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  3. Bolts4lyfe
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    Bolts4lyfe BoltTalker

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    I agree, I would take Milliner, although PHI will most likely take an OL,
    AZ, STL, PIT, CHI, IND, DET all need serious (some more than others) help too. this could be 2011's QB run on OT

    If we did take Lewan I would be very happy though, this team has shown even with subpar talent in the secondary we can still remain in games, keeping Rivers clean not so much. If the offense didn't fall apart in the New Orleans, Denver, Cleveland, Tampa Bay, Denver, Baltimore games in the second half because Rivers was under pressure most of the time. we could be thinking a lot differently this season.
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  4. Ikeman83
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    Ikeman83 Werter Pöbel

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    I think that you're being very pessimistic thinking that we'll pick 9th. We still have a legit shot at picking 3rd, and an extreme outside shot at picking 2nd!
  5. matilack
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    matilack #therealagent47

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    As it stands right now we'd be picking about 8, but we have 3 teams coming up who are just as bad or worse than us (OAK, CAR, NYJ) and 1 team without their starting QB (PIT).
  6. Ikeman83
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    Ikeman83 Werter Pöbel

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    We haven't beaten the Jets since 2008. We're playing Pitt in Pitt, and although they don't have #7 this week, they might well have him next week. Oak, in spite of their horribleness, might manage to beat this team, and if Carolina can beat Philly, they can beat us.
  7. SuperCharger92
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    SuperCharger92 BoltTalker

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    Yeah I'm sorry to say it I think we win those 4 games and go 8-8, or maybe 7-9.. We're bad, but not that bad. I have us picking around #12-14..

    I still don't see KC taking Geno Smith. I'm with Mel Kiper, I think the Chiefs take Manti Te'o with the number 1 overall pick. His combine is gonna wow a lot of people, and his performance in the BCS will too. I see KC going after Aaron Murray, if he comes out and if he has a really good game against Bama tonight to help his stock he'll be a solid 2nd round pick or possibly a Ryan Nassib.

    So I think Manti Te'o, Geno Smith, Star Lotulelei, Jarvis Jones, Luke Joeckel, Jonathan Hankins, Dion Jordan, Damontre Moore, Taylor Lewan, Matt Barkley (Don't think he is a top 16 pick at all, but QB needy times like Arizona and Buffalo might bite), Dee Milliner, and Barkevious Mingo all gone.

    So we have Eric Fisher, Jake Matthews, Chance Warmack, and Bjoern Werner near the #12-14 pick..
  8. matilack
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    matilack #therealagent47

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    What a frickin disaster that would be. If we win 7 games we'll be unlikely to be in the top 15.

    I hate meaningless wins. If we could get into the top 7 and then trade back this franchise would be better for it.
  9. SuperCharger92
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    Philly was 8-8 last year and picked 12th, and KC was 7-9 and picked 11th.

    Bottom of the line is, Norv is playing for a job next year (better be elsewhere), and he'll continue with the starters I believe..

    And doesn't the tie breaker of teams of the same record go by strength of schedule? If so, we'll be out all 8-8 and 7-9 teams, as only the Rams & Browns have a tougher one but they'll finish with a worse record than us. Other 3 teams will be in the playoffs.
  10. matilack
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    matilack #therealagent47

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    We'll beat PIT if Batch plays.
    Oakland is always beatable, and its home game.
    CAR is the spitting image of the Chargers, their offense is just as stupid and predictable, but they do have a better O-line. I would say we have the better defense. A home game...a coin toss.
    NYJ is completely inept on offense, I could honestly see us shutting them out.

    I see us finishing 6-10. We're bad, but so are our opponents in their own way. Really our games come down to Rivers protecting the ball.
  11. Ikeman83
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    Ikeman83 Werter Pöbel

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    Our games come down to Clary and Harris protecting Rivers, something they've yet to show themselves capable of doing.

    Our rushing offense is obviously complete garbage, as RGIII has more yards than Mathews at this point. I think that it's probably safe to say that Smitty ultimately busted on all of his 1st rounders from 2005-2010 in terms of longevity, performance or both.

    Even with Batch in as the starter, we have no way of stretching out the Pitt defense. This will be the Baltimore game all over again.
    Against Oakland, I can just see Terrelle Pryor dropping 42 on us, through some kind of ghost of Al Davis longball miracle.
    Cam Newton will stop jerking off his ego long enough to slap our secondary silly.
    And the Jets will start Tebow, who will perform yet another Tebotomy on this team.

    Don't give up hope Matilack. Remember, no matter how inept or talentless our opponents might be, none of them are led by Norv. Don't forget, the major factor in our 1st W over Oakland was the epic horribleness of their back-up long snapper.
  12. matilack
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    matilack #therealagent47

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    I think its rediculous to blame our O-line for our woes and then declare Ryan Mathews a bust. Harris is an absolutely shamefull run blocker, as is Ty Green, and Nick Harwick has never been a road grader himself. And it doesn't help that Norv takes the ball away from him in the 4th quarter when the defense is usually at its most fatigued. He doesn't get those finisher carries LT used to that would regularly salvage bad statistical games.

    ...and that goes for Gates, Floyd, Meachem, Royal, and even Alexander as well. Guys who are not putting up numbers to their potential because the offense is falling apart at the point of contact.

    And if you'd like a more establish example than Mathews, just look at what has happend to LeSean McCoy after his world beater season in 2011. O-line is where it starts.
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  13. 63 Chargers
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    63 Chargers BoltTalker

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    The Dawgs just gave up 350 on the ground to Bama. No Thanks.

    BPA irregardless of position in 1st round.

    Definitely O-line and db in subsequent rounds
  14. Ikeman83
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    Ikeman83 Werter Pöbel

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    He's gotten 20+ carries in 2 games this season. His longest plays have all come during the 1st 10 carries of a game.

    He's not a 12th overall pick quality RB. Compare him to CJ Spiller, another back on a terrible team. The only thing that can be said for Mathews is that he's coughed up the ball less frequently this season.
  15. Moses
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    I would argue that our o-line is actually the worst in the NFL, that doesn't help Mathews on this team any more than it would Spiller in the same situation. The team clearly misses Gaither, and misses Dielman even more.
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  16. Bolts4lyfe
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    Bolts4lyfe BoltTalker

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    A this topic has nothing to do with Mathews and B if you have a terrible line its near impossible to crack any open holes. Believe me no one wants to see Mathews shut all the doubters up more than me, maybe I'm watching another game but to me it looks like Mathews is the only one on our offense playing for something. Every run he makes he's going hard, looking to hit someone, it's not his fault when we fall apart in the 2nd half Norv completely abandons the run.
  17. matilack
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    matilack #therealagent47

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    Statistically overall, the Bills have the 7th best offensive line in football this year. In terms of sacks allowed, QB hits, negative rushes etc... on a +/- rating the Bills are among the best. And you could point to the same thing when you look at Daren Sproles' gaudy stats from 2011.

    Chargers are 27th. The situations are not comparable. If you're gonna extend the courtesy to Philip Rivers we have to extend it to everyone who relies on the O-line for production...which is to say everyone.
  18. matilack
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    matilack #therealagent47

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    Marc Sanchez was benched today.

    I stand by what I said, we're going to beat that team. :unsure: Thats 5 wins.
  19. Ikeman83
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    Ikeman83 Werter Pöbel

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    Source please.
    Also, if this year's epicly bad line is the cause for Mathews' inadequacy, where were the quality performances in 2010, 2011? 2010 he had 1 100 yd game. 2011 he had 4 100 yd games, 3 of which came after the wheels came off the line.

    We're going to hang onto him because he's still on his rookie contract, but the kid was a reach at 12 for which we horribly overpaid, at a position where high draft picks simply should not be spent. At this point, if we draft a RB in the 3rd round next year, there's no guarantee that Mathews starts over him.
  20. matilack
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    matilack #therealagent47

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    Because of Jared Gaither my friend. You are focused too much on the effect missing OTs has on the passing game, you've yet to consider that for the final 5 games of 2011 Jared Gaither was a 340lb MONSTER in the rushing game. And before we had Gaither it was Dombrowski...who despite being a shameful pass blocker is a gloried OG who added run blocking strength to the edge rushing game.

    Our last rushing TD came in week 5....when Gaither played against the Saints. Then he strained his groin on the final drive and Mathews production hit a brick wall again when that pussy Mike Harris took over.

    BTW my sources were FootballOutsiders.com and NFL.com's O-line stat page. Football outsiders DVOA ranking has us 22nd in efficiency, 26th in rush rank (yards before 1st contact) and 31st overall. So when I said 27th, that was me being generous by giving you NFL.com's far less scientific ranking.
  21. Ikeman83
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    Ikeman83 Werter Pöbel

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    Maybe he's not a bust, I'm not so arrogant as to assume that I'm infallible. I will say that I still think that he's yet to perform as a featureback, which is what a 12th overall should be if you're going to bone your team's development and draft one.
  22. matilack
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    matilack #therealagent47

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    Thats fine. I'm just saying give the guy a break, he's not getting any favors.
  23. SuperCharger92
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    SuperCharger92 BoltTalker

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    What about this......... first 3 picks:

    1. Jake Matthews - T - Texas A&M
    2. Ezekiel Ansah - OLB - BYU
    3. Kyle Long - T - Oregon

    Luke Joeckel I think will be gone in top 5. If KC loses Albert, they'll draft Joeckel. Even that, I don't see Philly passing up on him either. So, say he's the only OL taken in the draft and it's currently our pick, I trade a few spots back, gain a few picks. Because, we'll have 2 very good prospect Tackles in Jake Matthews and Eric Fisher to chose from.

    I think we need to go OLB in the 2nd round, whether its Ansah, Dion Jordan or Jackson Jeffcoat. A RB in the 4th is a must. Kenjon Barner, Mike Gillislee, or Michael Dyer if he comes out.

    Kyle Long, don't know if he will try to get another year of eligibility, but he was great at Oregon, opening up holes and protecting the QB. But if he doesn't come out hoping Oday Aboushi or Brennan Williams falls to us.

    Thoughts?
  24. Ikeman83
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    Ikeman83 Werter Pöbel

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    We're on pace for a top 5 pick if we lose out, possibly top 3.

    Don't lose faith! Also, I don't think that KC can go with anything other than a QB. I know that there isn't really a 1st overall quality QB prospect in this draft, but Cam Newton wasn't a 1st overall caliber QB either. Jacksonville is high on their LT, and Philly just signed theirs as a FA to a LTD. I think as long as we're picking 3rd or 4th that we'll end up with Joeckel on the board.
  25. SuperCharger92
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    I honestly just can't see KC doing it. They have a lot of money in Cassel, and should be interesting what they do with him this off-season. And also what they do with Dwayne Bowe and Branden Albert. It will be an interesting off-season for them as well as us.

    I feel like KC will just keep adding onto the DL or there OL.. I see a team like Arizona trading up to land Geno Smith.. Similar to what we saw last year with Washington and St. Louis..

    KC will clean house, and just collect picks I think to set up their future.
  26. SuperCharger92
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    Priorities in this draft have to be,

    1. LT/RT
    2. OLB
    3. RT/LT
    4. CB
    5. RB
    6. DL
    7. K
  27. NatroneBomb
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    So assuming that we have the 8th pick, and figuring that we don't have any compensatory picks because our incoming and outgoing contracts were even we'll have (approximately) the 8th, 40th,79th,110th,142nd,175th, and 212th pick in the 2013 draft.

    What I did was take Matt Miller's (from New Era Scouting) list of the top 300 players and their potential draft positions(week 13) to do up a quick mock. Three options at each pick based on who could potentially be there(except for round 6 where I couldn't find a third interesting prospect in the range). Number in parenthesis is their assumed draft position.


    1. Pick 8- Taylor Lewan OT Michigan (8)/ Jake Matthews OT Texas A&M(13)/Chance Warmack OG Alabama (7)

    2. Pick 39-Barrett Jones OG Alabama (36)/Alec Ogletree ILB Georgia (31)/ Jordan Poyer CB Oregon ST (46)

    3. Pick 77- Lane Johnson OT Oklahoma (70)/ Shayne Skov ILB Stanford (78)/Larry Warford OG Kentucky (79)

    4. Pick 109- Stephan Taylor RB Stanford (95)/ Leon McFadden CB SDSU (102)/ Trey Millard FB Oklahoma (123)

    5. Pick 142- Justin Pugh OT Syracuse (127)/Montee Ball RB Wisconsin (143)/ Brandon Williams NT Missouri Southern (134)

    6. Pick 175- Omoregie Uzzi OG Georgia Tech (153)/ DeVonte Holloman OLB South Carolina (177)/

    7. Pick 212- Blaize Foltz OG TCU (225)/ Kapron Lewis-Moore DE Notre Dame (215)/ Kiko Alanso OLB Oregon (246)
  28. matilack
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    matilack #therealagent47

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    I don't mean to give Todd McShay and Mel Kiper too much credit, but like me neither have 1st round grade on Jake Matthews. Any time people start using lineage as a reason to draft a player I immediately start tuning them out.

    I am sold on Eric Fisher being the better player, and possibly a top 10 pick. I would be totally fine with us taking him at 7 if that's where we end up.
  29. SuperCharger92
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    To me the best players in this draft are Luke Joeckel, Manti Te'o, and Star Lotulelei.. In that order. I just don't see the Chiefs going out and drafting a QB, seeing how Geno Smith isn't a #1 overall pick guy. I think they'll certainly get a guy in the 2nd round though, Ryan Nassib, Zac Dysert, etc.

    Remember Mike Vick will most likely be cut, and Jason Campbell will be a FA as well.
  30. Ikeman83
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    Guys move up and down draft boards as a result of bowl games. You have to look at KC as a team that needs a QB, even though they invested in Cassel in 2009. Whatever they're on the hook for, Cassel has clearly proven himself to be completely incapable and not worth the 53rd spot on their roster. With only two years of salary cap proration left, it might even be more economical to cut him than to keep him.

    We also don't know what's going to happen as a result of bowl game performances as far as player valuation.

    The rookie salary cap might also have a big impact on the draft order, with teams going for QBs, corners, and pass rushers over NTs and LTs.

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