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Pagano or Somebody else? 3-4 or 4-3?

Discussion in 'Chargers Fan Forum' started by Bigkdb, Dec 17, 2013.

  1. Bigkdb

    Bigkdb BoltTalker

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    As we all know our defense has been **** this year with a few exceptions. There is an article out on whether we should keep Pagano or if Raiders HC Dennis Allen gets fired we try to get him. I don't want to get caught up with last weeks game against the Broncos and basically believing Pagano can coach this defense. We have seen on too many occasions how poor of a DC he is. It seems like he makes good gameplans for the better teams and when we face ****** teams he just says "just go out there and figure it out guys". I really believe we need a DC and I know with a knew coach there will be some shakeup with the defensive roster. Do we switch to a 4-3 or stay a 3-4? I say 3-4 and if that's the case we just need secondary help big time, a few more pass rushers and a nose tackle. I say all of this to ask, what do you guys think we should do? lol
     
  2. HollywoodLeo

    HollywoodLeo Trevor Phillips Enterprises

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    Right now my stance on Pagano is that there really isn't much anybody can do with this unit and I like his approach....but I'm never against top to bottom change when the unit stinks so bad.

    In other words, I don't really pin our defensive woes on Pagano considering what he has to work with, but I also wouldn't hate change. (Depending, obviously, on the 2nd half of that equation)
     
  3. matilack

    matilack #therealagent47

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    I dunno, I tend to think Pagano should get another chance. In his 2 years as DC he's had one very solid campaign in 2012 and a roller coaster in 2013

    Besides starting the season without his 3 best pass rushers from last year, and losing Freeney early on, and having Butler and JJ miss chunks of time, we've been competitive in every game except maybe the first Oakland game.

    I think he gets one more. Although if Rex Ryan somehow becomes available and would take a DC job...bye Pagano.
     
    Last edited: Dec 17, 2013
    • Agree Agree x 2
  4. HEXEDBOLT

    HEXEDBOLT Well-Known Member

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    If the defense keeps on at it current level of play, I don't see how Pags wouldn't be back. Early on, I considered the 6th game a jumping off point for this defense to come on and get stronger and they did show glimpses, just no consistency.

    A couple more new parts and some good used ones with 3-4 backgrounds and it could be a top 12 or better defense. With the cap limit where it's at, TT will have to work some magic in the draft along with the FA market. I reckon we'll just have to wait and see how all this shakes out.
     
  5. Fossil

    Fossil BoltTalker

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    My dos centavos:
    Pag's ability to keep our Def somewhat in the middle of the field with this MASH unit earns him another season. What remains to be seen is if he's capable of taking an improved roster to the next level. Give the Def a couple high draft picks and maybe a solid FA this offseason. Then, barring catastrophic injuries to multiple star players, 2014 might be considered a do or die season for Pags. I'd like to see the Def allow < 20 ppg average at the season's end, with maybe a little bit of wiggle room. If > 20 +/-, send in the Turk. (Naturally, this being San Diego, if we make the playoffs everyone's so freakin' giddy it doesn't matter how the Def ranks out).
     
  6. SuperCharger92

    SuperCharger92 BoltTalker

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    Tom Telesco said Pagano will 'absolutely' return in 2014.
     
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  7. HollywoodLeo

    HollywoodLeo Trevor Phillips Enterprises

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    I definitely don't disagree here.
     
  8. HollywoodLeo

    HollywoodLeo Trevor Phillips Enterprises

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    I never buy into PR statements like that.

    What else is he going to say? "Well, I think we just may move in another direction next year" while Pagano is still in charge of his defense and listening in?

    And, no, not saying anything isn't an option as statements like that are typically made in response to a direct question. And avoiding the question would have the same affect as my rhetorical response.
     
  9. SuperCharger92

    SuperCharger92 BoltTalker

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    Well, if you were truly on the fence, you'd say something a long the lines, "we will make evaluations on all coaches at the end of the year, and go from there". That's all.
     
  10. HollywoodLeo

    HollywoodLeo Trevor Phillips Enterprises

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    That could be a tactful way of going about it, but Telesco wouldn't be the first, nor the last to give a full vote of confidence to that kind of question only to let the coach go anyway once decision time comes.

    There's a reason the running gag is to call stuff like that the "dreaded vote of confidence".
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  11. JohnnyX

    JohnnyX Well-Known Member

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    I think Pagano is good DC with the lack of talent he has to work with. If we get in some good pick ups thru FA and draft we can honestly be a top 10 D. He's had great gameplan's against the Colts and Denver(second half and 2nd game). I think if we can rid of the injury bug for most of the season, we'll be a very good d. We have good core of young d players to look forward too.

    If we did make a change D.Allen wouldn't be my choice, McCoy probably would have a difficult time telling to switch out of play cause of their buddy relationship. Ryan isn't coming here that's for sure.
     
  12. Lance19

    Lance19 BoltTalker

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    Yeah, it pretty much works the same way with NFL coaches as with cows:

    Right before the slaughterhouse floor worker employs the captive bolt "stunner," firing the bolt
    between the cow's eyes, into the brain, essentially ending the animal, the worker tells the cow:

    "You are absolutely our cow…we're in this together…your position is safe…
    you're guaranteed a place here next year…you have the complete support of ownership."
     
  13. Fossil

    Fossil BoltTalker

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    Telesco should keep one of those stunners on his desk as a "friendly reminder" that failure is not an option.
     
  14. Moses

    Moses Yeah Buddy!

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    He has had it tough with injuries. Not wanting to make excuses for the guy, but he lost Ingram, Freeney and English, leaving his pass rush a little thin to say the least. And when you can't generate a consistent pass rush, you're always gonna struggle in the secondary, especially when our corners aren't exactly great to begin with.

    I don't think he's done a bad job considering what he's had to work with, he's tried to do the best with the group he's had available to him. They've certainly had some good games, they were quite impressive against Denver last week, and going forward we do have a few nice pieces, but it is also a unit that needs some critical upgrades at CB, NT & OLB, and hopefully better injury luck.
     
  15. Bigkdb

    Bigkdb BoltTalker

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    I get that Pagano has had to deal with injuries but when you have a great defensive coach even if he doesnt have the horses to deploy he at least has the scrubs playing hard. For the majority of the season we saw how uninspired our defense was under him. These guys were getting burned by everybody and smashed right in the mouth. Could be the players too but I just don't want us to finally get the good players we need and Pagano does a ****** job with em. That's wasting time..time Philip doesn't need to waste.
     
  16. The LBC

    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    This is effectively my stance.

    And mat, I really don't see where you can call Pagano's first year as DC much of a success - the defense couldn't get off the field (we were bottom 3 in the league in conceding 3rd down conversions) and couldn't close out games. I won't freak out if Pags is retained, but I don't consider his units' failure to perform wholly excusable to this season's rash of injuries - because even when our players were healthy there have been basic fundamentals the players have struggled with (decline in general tackling technique and angles, a spike in penalties committed by the defense even since Manusky's tenure).

    The one thing that no one has addressed from the OP that I figured I would is the 3-4 vs 4-3 debate. We hear it quite a bit (not just from out own folks but many teams with struggling defenses fans seem to perennially have the debate whether they should swap to the other formation). What few seem to recognize is that the key cog of any successful 4-3 unit - the elusive beast known as the Right Defensive End - is particularly more rare (in term of finding a highly-productive starter) than the 3-4 counterpart - the WOLB. Simple fact of the matter is that guys with the requisite size, length, bulk, and athleticism to line up at the 4-technique (without shading out wide of the OT's outside shoulder) and consistently beat the longer, more athletic LOT's (as has become the trend in the modern pass-happy NFL) are quite rare in college football. Whereas the more undersized, "hybrid" players come in a much more plentiful pool. This is why the recent trend has started up where several traditionally 4-3 teams have, of late, begun deploying more of a base 4-3 under formation with an Elephant or "LEO" linebacker who is moreso an undersized DE, who while he may rush out of a 3-point stance on occasion is lined up wide of the LT's outside shoulder to create a mismatch.
     
  17. gonzokrb

    gonzokrb Well-Known Member

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    I respectfully beg to differ with LBC. Seven of the top ten defenses are a 4-3. The modification of the OLB wide of the tackle is from the L.T. (Lawrence Taylor) days. Without a monster NT the 3-4 is doomed. Jamal Williams type NT are very rare! When Terrific Tom let Phillips and others walk I look at it as a message that we are going to a 4-3 next year or at least trying to draft in that direction.
     
  18. The LBC

    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    I hardly see that and I think it's naive to make that assumption. Phillips, if you objectively look at the whole of his body of work in his last contract year and not just box score scout, was pretty pedestrian. The vast majority of his sacks came as coverage sacks and he otherwise averaged less than 2 tackle per game... from a starting linebacker. AJ also left this team in legitimate cap hell with his "last ditch effort to save his job" spending spree that ended up forcing us to eat dead money cap hits on Meachem, Gaither, and so forth. I fail to see how the team opting to give Cam Thomas the opportunity to prove himself in a contract year is an indication that the front office was distancing themselves from the 3-4 formation.

    Moreover, I'm a firm believer that a single season does not a proper sample-size make. Seven of the current Top 10 defenses (in a year where we've seen downturns from a fair number of the previous seasons' top defenses for circumstances having little to due with personnel turnover) are 4-3... or 4-3 variants (the 4-3 under/over is much more akin to the 3-4 and uses personnel much closer to that of the 3-4 than the traditional 4-3).

    And it really depends on what criteria you're using for "top defense," are we talking PPG? Because if that's the case we're actually tied for a spot in the Top 10 with New England for the season right now. And if that's the criterion then 5 of the top 11 defenses are 3-4's with Seattle then being a 4-3 Under, and two more (Pittsburgh and Indy) in the Top 15 running 3-4's as well. It's actually, for this season, an incredibly even distribution. And this in a year where Houston (a defense thought to be among the leagues best over the past two seasons leading into this one and which has been hamstrung more by its offense and injuries than its own shortcomings this season), Pittsburgh, and the Jets (a defense that I believe most would consider to be quite good in spite of their giving up an average of 26+ points per game this year) are having "down-years" from what the law of averages has told us we should expect from them when we consider the 2-3 seasons prior to this one.

    You don't have to have a Jamal Williams caliber NT to have a successful 3-4 - in fact, J-Wall realistically may not have been as effective had he been asked to play 2-gapping NT (as Wilfork was asked to when New England ran a 3-4 or Casey Hampton did for Pittsburgh) versus the 1-gapping Wade had him doing. Correct me if I'm wrong, but Houston had a highly effective 3-4 defense last season with Earl "Who?" Mitchell as their NT (and Earl Mitchell doesn't deserve to smell the residual odor lingering in the air three days after J-Wall's jock left the building). The Jets 3-4 DL ranks among the best in the league (among all DL's not just among 3-4 DL's) and their NT is sophomore UDFA Damon Harrison.

    Is finding a stud 3-4 NT the caliber of Vince Wilfork or Jamal Williams rare? Yes. But being an effective 3-4 NT (something Cam Thomas is not) doesn't require you to be a stud. Having a highly-productive 3-4 defense doesn't require having a stud NT - merely a capable one. And finding highly capable, even highly effective, 3-4 NT's is actually still easier than finding 4-3 RDE's of a similar accomplishment/capability.
     
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  19. DenverBolt67

    DenverBolt67 BoltTalker

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    What about Wade Phillips?
     
  20. BoltsNHoes

    BoltsNHoes I gotta have me my....

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    I'm a fan of the 4-3
     

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