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players who will be drafted high and disappoint the team that drafted them

Discussion in 'NFL Draft' started by charger1993, Feb 22, 2012.

  1. charger1993
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    charger1993 bad motherfucker

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    Quintin Couples DE. " a big physical freak of nature, whose junior tape made him look like julius peppers, but his senior year tape makes him look likea 5th round draft pick."

    Whitney Mercilius DR . " a one year wonder, alot of teams see him as a olb and this causes concern on my part, i dont think he has the quickness to do it."

    Alfonzo denard Cb " go great instincts but lacks the fluid hips, hes not that physical and he tends to get beat down by tall receivers, Alshon jeffery took it to him"

    Chris polk rb "this dude has popped out of nowhere and is seen as a late first round pick, im not to impressed with him at all"

    demetri poe DT " this dude is more than a freak of nature, 350 pounds and runs like hes 260. but i see him as all physical and real football knowledge."

    Justin blackmon wr " now this is where the rubber meets the road, once yall read this yall are gonna throw a bitch fit. but blackmon i think is more glorified by his QB then his actual play, he doesnt always pluck the ball out of the air and can sometimes lack the instincts that could hurt him in the nfl, plus i dont think he has the speed to be a number 1"
  2. Ikeman83
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    Ikeman83 Werter Pöbel

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    Trent Richardson, because someone is going to be stupid enough to use a top ten (if not 5) on a running back.
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  3. charger1993
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    charger1993 bad motherfucker

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    idk trent can actually back what hes about, im not saying hes a top 5. but hes one of the best rb prospects to come out in recent years
  4. Ikeman83
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    Irrelevant, taking a RB in the 1st is like having a Genie grant you 3 wishes and using one of them for some pancakes. The buyer's remorse will be a factor of his position, not any production/contributions he might eventually (or immediately) make.
  5. charger1993
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    charger1993 bad motherfucker

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    you have a valid point. but if you have a running back who can change the game when ur qb is struggling you will win the game. Think about 2006 when we had LT and rivers was having a bad day. the game could still be won
  6. Buck Melanoma
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    I call BS on Demetri Poe.

    Dontari Poe is going to be just fine.
  7. Ikeman83
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    In 2006, if we had had Seymour, Turner would've had 20 TDs behind that O-line, we still would've won 14 games, and we might have won some playoff games.

    Elite RBs get you exciting plays. They do not get you Rings in the current football environment.
  8. The LBC
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    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    Instincts and vision-wise yes. But to compare him to Adrian Peterson (the only RB prospect since LT to have justifiable Top 10 stock as an RB) is flat out ridiculous. Peterson was the total package: Size, speed, vision, pass-blocking ability, pass-catching ability, pedigree, consistent production, big game experience, leadership, you name it.

    Richardson's close on the size, his speed is more comparable to Mark Ingram's than Adrian Peterson's, his pass-blocking ability isn't close to where AP's was, and his productions close (not quite equal, but close enough). I'm not debating that Richardson is a 1st-round caliber RB, but dude's more Marshawn Lynch than Adrian Peterson (in that he's got bonafide Top 20 stock, not Top 10 much less Top 5).
  9. The LBC
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    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    After about two years of reserve work sure. But if someone selects him based upon his size and tries to plug him in against-best-fit as a 3-4 NT, he's going to flop before he ever succeeds. Both Poe and Ta'amu are oversized 3-Technique DT's, and need serious fundamental overhauling of their technique if any team ever has hope of getting them to play the 1- or 0-tech's. That's great if you are only sinking a 3rd round pick into the guy, but if you're dropping a 1st or 2nd without the necessary depth ahead of the guy on the roster, you're going to be sorely disappointed by your lack of more immediate return on investment.
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  10. The LBC
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    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    Blackmon's going to either turn out to be Michael Crabtree or Greg Jennings. Given the kid's worth ethic I'm more inclined to lean towards Jennings, but I can see where folks have concerns that he's another Crabtree. Honestly, this is a pretty mediocre draft class at WR.

    I think Vontaze Burfict is far more likely to disappoint than wow. But then again I also think he's likely to interview terribly and is already off the boards of at least 25% of the teams in the league unless he's still on the board on Day 3.

    Mohammad Sanu is going to be a huge hit or miss guy. He's no #1 WR, and either Greg Schiano sees something that myself and a number of guys with some solid know that I know don't... or Greg Schiano's just letting his personal connection with the kid cloud his judgment.

    If they don't go to zone-blocking teams, both Florida State OT's will likely be out of the league within 4 years.

    I say this as an Oregon fan. Cliff Harris... great returner... liability as a pro playing anything but the slot. He's a lither Cromartie. He's also just a plain stupid as Cro is; literally terrible judgment in his personal life and has no concept of how to keep his mouth shut to stop from saying things that will come back to haunt him. He may well challenge Janoris Jenkins for the "Next PacMan Jones" honors.

    Coples is a larger version of Ricky Sapp... and without the absolute right kind of coach is going to have the exact same impact as a pro.

    Depending on where he gets drafted, I think Kelechi Osemele is definitely going to disappoint the fans of the team that drafts him for the first half of his rookie contract and the guy may never actually do much until he's on his second league contract.
  11. charger1993
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    charger1993 bad motherfucker

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    turner was also an elite back we never used. hes doing great things for the falcons
  12. charger1993
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    charger1993 bad motherfucker

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    im not comparing him to AP at all. all im saying is an Workhorse RB can help the game be managed and won. Even if hes a marshawn lynch a team wouldnt be retarded to take him. Especially a team with a shaky qb
  13. charger1993
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    charger1993 bad motherfucker

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    yea Poe is a dangerous pick, the dude could either rip the off line up, of get constantly pushed down, the reach is to high for this kid. i like him just not as a 1st round pick. so im agreeing with you
  14. charger1993
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    charger1993 bad motherfucker

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    yea Blackmon is a very shaky prospect hes got good hands, but he doesnt fight for the ball, hes only 6 ft 2 and runs in the 4.5s not great speed, if youre that slow you need to either be jerry rice, or tall with good tangibles. Personally i think Stephen Hill from GT will be a better Prospect than him.

    Vontaze is no surprise dude is a monster on the field no doubt, hes got great speed and tremendous tenacity, but his temper gets the best of him, if hes going to be succesful the ravens will have to draft him, or he will be out the league in 4 years.

    Sanu i like, but idk how much of a impact he could have, i see him more of a steve smith "giants, now eagles" good slot receiver, terrible on the outside.

    im not even commenting on FS OT's

    Cliff harris is gonna be strictly a return man, the kid is short and idk if he could compete at the next level unless hes a nickel back.

    coples has a high ceiling, but with no coaching he'l be a role player at best
  15. Buck Melanoma
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    Where did I call Poe a 1st round pick?

    I'd grade him a low 2nd to mid 3rd. Sure he needs work but to say he's going to disappoint, IMO, is flat wrong. Guys that big & athletic don't just grow on trees.

    He's no Ngata, but he will be able to move around on the line. I'd sure pick him over Ta'amu.

    Edit: OK, I re-read the thread title & realized that I didn't exactly follow the rules. I'll stick with my assessment of Poe but agree that if someone goes crazy over him with a 1st round pick they'll be over-valuing. He's gonna need some work but I think he's legit & better than several rated higher. He could play a 5-tech for us & move inside as needed.
  16. FCBolt
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    FCBolt Well-Known Member

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    This is the one guy on your list that has a high probability of busting, imo.
    Unfortunately, AJ will likely draft him. In fact, AJ will probably burn our 2nd rounder to move up to draft him.
  17. Ikeman83
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    Even AP has done very little to improve the SB chances for his team. Since he was drafted in 2007, the Vikings have been...
    07: 8-8
    08: 10-6
    09: 12-4
    10: 6-10
    11: 3-13

    Building around a RB cripples your team. QB>Pass Rush/3-4 NT>Oline>DBs>Receivers>ILB>RBs.

    The last team with an offense built around a RB to win a SB was Pittsburgh in 2005, and their defense won that game. The reason for this is simple. Great QB with a great O-line = huge running lanes for your garbage back to rush through, but having a great RB will not suddenly enable your garbage QB to be elite. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that an elite RB won't make plays for you, because they will. The problem is that so will any RB, and if I get 50% of the plays for 2% of the cost/investment, why bother?
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  18. Buck Melanoma
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    I sure hope he doesn't. Coples doesn't fit for us.

    Will he bust? I think he was dogging it a fair amount this past year in hopes of avoiding injury & keeping his draft value up. Whoever gets him could have a Peppers type of playmaker or another Vernon Ghoulston. It's going to depend on his work ethic & I haven't been impressed in that area with UNC players.
  19. FCBolt
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    FCBolt Well-Known Member

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    The guy can't consistently get around college lineman. I don't think that's going to transfer well to the NFL unless he's very coachable.
    I've heard him called a 3-4 OLB, but the team that takes him in that role is upping the bust potential, imo.
  20. Buck Melanoma
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    Agreed re: 3-4 OLB.

    And again - I think he could get around OL far more consistently if he gave consistent effort. That's the big red flag for me.
  21. charger1993
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    charger1993 bad motherfucker

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    and what was the vikings record when they drafted him? having a QB is great, you need a good QB, but QB's are always gonna struggle when they transfer to the nfl. AP has turned the vikings around and the only reason they did bad this year, is because their qb kept getting switched and there was injuries everywhere. The point im trying to make is a good RB an help turn a team around
  22. Ikeman83
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    True statement, but it won't get you rings, and it won't help your team in the long term. In the case of the Vikings, Favre coming in and playing well in 2010 is what created their best season, not some monster performance by Peterson. Look at the Chargers in the LT Era. (year: record: Tomlinson YPC, Bold = Playoffs)

    2001: 5-11: 3.6
    2002: 8-8: 4.5
    2003: 4-12: 5.3
    2004: 12-4: 3.9
    2005: 9-7: 4.3
    2006: 14-2: 5.2
    2007: 11-5: 4.7
    2008: 8-8: 3.8
    2009: 13-3: 3.3

    When do the wins come in? Is it when LT is playing well? Clearly not, as 2003 was an amazing season for him statistically, and 2004 and 2009, both saw us with 12 wins and him under 4 ypc. Could our success be related to steady QB play?
    2001: Flutie (15 Games) 72 Rating, Brees (1 Game) 94.8 Rating
    2002: Brees 76.9 Rating
    2003: Brees (11 Games) 67.5 Rating, Flutie (5 Games) 82.8 Rating
    2004: Brees (15 Games) 104.8 Rating, Flutie (1 Game) 85 Rating
    2005: Brees (15.5 Games) 89.2 Rating, Rivers (.5 Game) 50.4 Rating
    2006: Rivers 92 Rating
    2007: Rivers 82.4 Rating
    2008: Rivers 105.5 Rating
    2009: Rivers 104.4 Rating

    Obviously we're not seeing one to one, but there's a closer correlation to winning kicking in when the QB play improved, and it's pretty immediate. If Trent Richardson turns in a 2006 LT season, i.e. the best single season by a RB ever, then for that one season he'll improve his team's chances to win dramatically. Something to consider though about the 2006 season:
    Tomlinson: 348 Attempts 1815 Yds 5.2 YPC 28 TDs
    Turner: 80 Attempts 502 Yds 6.3 YPC 2 TDs

    Was that all Tomlinson, or did monster run blocking from our Oline and great QB play by Rivers get him sprung? I don't think anyone can question that Tomlinson was one of the greatest RBs in the history of the NFL, but his dominance still required a strong supporting cast to be correlated with wins. Elite RBs can't just completely take over the game alone. The problem that this highlights is that if you have to have the same O-line investment, QB investment, deep-threat receiver investment (to get the 8th man out of the box), then you don't actually benefit from drafting this Elite RB. Further, with elite QB and O-line play, you can get significantly above average RB play from very average RBs. Case in point, Patriots.
    2011
    Law Firm (UFA): 181, 667, 3.7 YPC
    Stevan Ridley (3rd round pick): 87 Attempts, 441 Yds, 5.1 YPC
    Danny Woodhead (UFA): 77 Attempts, 351 Yds, 4.6 YPC

    http://www.nfl.com/teams/newenglandpatriots/statistics?season=2011&team=NE&seasonType=REG

    There is literally no reason whatsoever to take a RB in the first round of the draft. The production difference that you get from these players (if there is one) is replaceable, whereas the opportunity cost of drafting them is not.
  23. charger1993
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    charger1993 bad motherfucker

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    Im not saying that the running back can completely change the game. but look Every successful team needs a great running back. when the team is struggling if you put the ball on the ground you can control the clock, the game and the pace on which the game is played. QB's are esential but you have to have a good running game to be dominant
  24. Ikeman83
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    bolded is false, underlined is true. A team with a superior O-line can make an average RB look like a superstar. Add in quality blocking from a FB and a TE and all of a sudden a very average RB can get 3 yds before 1st contact. LT often had to make cuts in the backfield to avoid defenders, because the line was so awful. Even when the line had improved, in the 2005 @Philidelphia game, LT picked up 7 yds on 17 attempts. Correlating "Elite Running Back" with "Good Running Game" is a falacy. An Elite Running Back will not necesarily guarantee a Good Running Game. Likewise, a Good Running Game does not require an Elite Running Back.

    Using a 1st rounder on a RB is a team killer, and we've done it twice in the last 12 years. Worse, we've drafted 4 CBs in the last 10. I don't know who will draft Richardson, but they'll do it in the 1st round, and it will almost certainly have a negative impact on their team in the long-term, and a questionable impact in the short term.
  25. charger1993
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    charger1993 bad motherfucker

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    i dont always agree that drafting a RB in the first round will help you. But the nfl is changing there are no great blocking fullbacks. But back to my point If you have an Elite RB a Team will go in and gameplan to take him out of the game, Look at 2006 in the playoffs against the patriots, They came in to stop LT and philip rivers had almost all day to throw compared to normal. Look at what Terrel Davis did for the broncos, Elway was a tremendous QB with a good O line but he couldnt win the superbowl with an average RB He need TD to help. There are countless accounts of this throughout the nfls history
  26. Ikeman83
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    Ikeman83 Werter Pöbel

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    Welcome to th 21st century, where the Elite RB is dead, because the average RB running behind an above average Oline has twice his value.
  27. charger1993
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    charger1993 bad motherfucker

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    im more than willing to bet that you can take Adrian peterson, give him the bears offensive line. and vince young at QB and that team would reach the playoffs all day everyday
  28. Ikeman83
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    this is me. this is me rolling on the floor laughing while rotating in a circle. @roflcopter.
  29. matilack
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    matilack #therealagent47

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    I'm gonna disagree with Blackmon, but I'm going to add one that will surprise people....

    Melvin Ingram, espescially if the team that takes him expects him to be a pass rusher. He's short and stalky with odly short arms and next to no good pass rush moves. I think he's basically a glorified Akeem Ayers. He's a good player, but he'll never be a dominant player IMO.
  30. charger1993
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    charger1993 bad motherfucker

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    ive never been a fan of blackmon imo bryant was always the better receiver and he was faster. and ingram youre right i totally forgot about him

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