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*Pre Free* Agency full Mock Draft

Discussion in 'NFL Draft' started by Bolts4lyfe, Mar 6, 2014.

  1. Bolts4lyfe
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    Bolts4lyfe BoltTalker

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    1: Houston Texans: Jadeveon Clowney, DE, South Carolina

    New Coach Bill O'Brien would be foolish to take anyone other than the top player in this draft, Matt Schaub really struggled last year but in the past has shown to be a competent QB, Worst case scenario, they roll with him for another year. Or they can get Jimmy Garoppolo or David Carr in the 2nd

    2: St. Louis Rams: Greg Robinson, OT, Auburn

    Just like the Texans, The Rams will sit pat and take the BPA while also filling a major need, They are now finally addressing help for Sam Bradford, they need all the help they can get.

    3: Jacksonville Jaguars: Blake Bortles, QB, UCF

    Maybe this year is the year where we can finally say, the poor Jags have finally found their QB. I've heard people suggest Andrew Luck comparrisons when describing Bortles which I think is an insult to Luck, but it would be fair to say he reminds me a lot of Big Ben, the way he can move up in the pocket to extend plays. I also respect the kid for showing up and competing in the Combine.

    4: Cleveland Browns: Sammy Watkins, WR, Clemson

    I was tempted to put a QB in this spot but given the amount of woes that team had last year, on offense 3 things stood out, Josh Gordon, Jordan Cameron, and Brian Hoyer. Now throw in Watkins, and this can easily be the most dangerous/explosive offense in the NFL.

    5: Oakland Raiders: Jake Mathews, OT, Texas A/M

    Even if they bring back Veldheer, the Raiders would welcome Mathews on the right side or vice/versa. The Raiders have a lot of holes to fill on offense so locking up the offensive line is a step in the right direction

    6: Atlanta Falcons: Khalil Mack, OLB, Buffalo

    I was torn with this pick, I wanted to give ATL a OT but I couldn't put Lewan this high and could put Mack any lower. I'm almost tempted to flip Oak and ATL's picks because both still make just as much sense, either way ATL is happy. I just feel getting Matt Ryan protection should be number 1 priority

    7: Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Luisville

    I'm not sure how Lovie feels about Mike Glennon, but if it were me, I would have started looking for a QB last week.

    8: Minnesota Vikings: Anthony Barr, DE, UCLA

    Vikings are most likely losing Jared Allen this year, and are hoping Barr can quickly help them forget about Allen and his Mullett.

    9: Buffalo Bills: Eric Ebron, TE, North Carolina

    I don't know how I feel about putting a TE at number 9, but if anyone would go that route it would be Buffalo. Ebron is not just a TE, he's a game changer would help that offense greatly

    10: Detroit Lion: Justin Gilbert, Oklahoma State

    It seems like every year, this is the topic of discussion for Detroits needs, lets hope Gilbert will help them fix that need, Although there is no "elite" CB in this draft, there is a ton of great talent and Gilbert might just be the cream of the crop.

    11: Tennessee Titans: Mike Evans, WR, Texas A/M

    Whisenhunt took a similar WR at this same spot in his last draft as a HC I don't think he'll be afraid to do it again, especially when it is a big area of need. Jake Locker is not a franchise QB but he is one that is competent and just needs some weapons to throw to.

    12: New York Giants: Taylor Lewan, OT Michigan

    Us Charger fans know what its like to see a winning QB play terrible when he isn't getting any help on the offensive line, I am in no way a fan of Eli, but he doesn't deserve what he had last year.

    13: St. Louis Rams: Calvin Pryor, Safety, Louisville

    After The Rams got their LT they are switching to the other side of the ball and getting a very physical safety, which will be great in Greg Williams defensive system.

    14: Chicago Bears: Aaron Donald, DT, Pittsburgh

    Chicago had one of the worst defensive fronts last year (which is something you don't hear very often when talking about the Bears) Donald will come in and help them fix that DLine

    15: Pittsburgh Steelers: Darqueze Dennard, CB, Michigan State

    The Steelers are desperate for young talented players to help bolster that secondary, especially with Cincinnati taking over as the most dominating team in that division.

    16: Dallas Cowboys: Timmy Jernigan, DT, Florida State

    Dallas was terrible last year on the defensive line so adding a young talented player like Jernigan is a no brainer, unless you have Jerry Jones calling the shots, anything's possible

    17: Baltimore Ravens: Odell Beckham, WR, LSU

    The Ravens have nothing on offense outside of Torrey Smith and Dennis Pitta, and Ray Rice (last year exception) Adding a talented WR like Beckham could possibly be that missing piece to that offense.

    18: New York Jets: Marquise Lee, WR USC

    It seems like the Jets haven't had a solid wideout on that roster since Laverneus Coles was ther some odd years ago, Geno Smith lokked half way decent to finish up the season, and New York has to hope that'll continue this year, Lee would help make that happen.

    19: Miami Dolphins: Zack Martin, OT, Notre Dame

    Jeff Ireland was that little bastard of a kid who your mom made you play with because she was friends with his parents, after he rampaged on every toy you had ripping the heads off of you GI Joes and broke everything you had, just left everything in turmoil. The Dolphins are a hot mess right now, and slowly have to get back to being a respectable team, starting with a poor O line is a great way to start.

    20: Arizona Cardinals: CJ Mosely ILB Alabama

    Getting The top ILB at 20 is a steal, If Dansby isn't retained in the offseason this is insurance, and if he is brought back, having Dansby and Mosley tandem is a dangerous combo

    21: Greenbay Packers: Ra'Shede Hageman NT Minnesota

    Greenbay has said they want to get quicker on the defense, that'll start up front with Hageman who is versatile enough to plays as a DE and a NT, in addition to being able to take on the double team he also is quick enough to get after the QB

    22: Philedelphia Eagle: Ha Ha Clinton Dix, Safety, Alabama

    The Eagles are looking for help with their secondary, so adding a talented kid like Dix just seems right

    23: Kansas City Chiefs: Kony Ealy, DE, Missouri

    Just when you thought Kansas City's defense couldn't get any scarier, they go ahead and add Ealy to the mix.

    24: Cincinnati Bengals: Bradly Roby, CB Ohio

    I don't know how much more this team needs to be in talks with Seattle and SF when it comes to talking about young and talented, but Roby is just another piece to making them border line elite

    25: San Diego Chargers: Luis Nix, NT Notre Dame

    Just like GreenBay the Chargers have stated how they want to get faster on both sides of the ball, Nix can't get after the QB like Donald, Jernigan and Hageman can but I feel that the Chargers would be content with him taking on the double teams so Luiget, Reyes, Freeney, and Ingram can.

    26: Cleveland Browns: Johnny Manziel, QB Texas A&M

    Cleveland is finally getting their QB, while I'm not a fan I think Cleveland has to be excited to get Johnny Football this Late

    27: New Orleans Saints: Stephen Tuitt, DE, Notre Dame

    New Orleans defense made strides last year, so adding another weapon to Rob Ryans arsenal would be welcomed

    28: Carolina Panthers: Jason Verrett, CB, TCU

    Panthers add another young talented CB to their defense which has a dominant front 7, so adding (my favorite CB) to their line up just makes them all that more dangerous

    29: New England Patriots: Brandin Cooks, WR Oregon State

    You can tell Tom Brady really missed Wes Welker. Amendola, Edleman, and what ever other kids they had in their line up wasn't exactly a recipe for success. Adding a fast explosive kid like Cooks can put New England back on top.

    30: San Fransisco 49ers: Kyle Fuller CB Virginia Tech

    Adding a kid like Fuller to an already talented defense just makes the rich get richer

    31: Denver Broncos: Dee Ford, OLB Auburn

    Shaun Phillips was one of Denvers top pass rushers last year, he may or may not be back ( I think he will) but adding a healthy Von Miller and Dee Ford to the mix could make John Elway forgive the fax machine.

    32: Seattle Seahawks: X'avier Su'a-filo OG UCLA

    The Superbowl Champs have the luxury to add one of the best talents still available to an already stacked team. Look for them to add young talent to come in and protect Russel wilson for years
  2. SuperCharger92
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    SuperCharger92 BoltTalker

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    Here's mine, keep in mind this has been done for about a week or two, so I might need to update it and revise it with reasonings as well. Bear with me.

    HOU - DE - Jadeveon Clowney
    STL - OT - Greg Robinson
    JAX - QB - Teddy Bridgewater
    CLE - QB - Blake Bortles
    OAK - QB - Johnny Manziel
    ATL - DE - Khalil Mack
    TB - WR - Sammy Watkins
    MIN - OLB - Anthony Barr
    BUF - ILB - CJ Mosley
    DET - FS - Ha Ha Clinton-Dix
    TEN - OT - Jake Matthews
    NYG - CB - Darqueze Dennard
    STL - WR - Mike Evans
    CHI - DT - Aaron Donald
    PIT - OT - Taylor Lewan
    BAL - WR - Kelvin Benjamin
    DAL - DT - Timmy Jernigan
    NYJ - WR - Odell Beckham
    MIA - OT - Zach Martin
    ARI - TE - Eric Ebron
    GB - NT - Louis Nix
    PHI - CB - Justin Gilbert
    KC - WR - Marquise Lee
    CIN - OG - Xavier Sua'Filo
    SD - CB - Jason Verrett
    CLE - ILB - Ryan Shazier
    NO - OLB - Dee Ford
    CAR - WR - Brandin Cooks
    NE - TE - Jace Amaro
    SF - DT - Ra-Shede Hageman
    DEN - CB - Bradley Roby
    SEA - OG - David Yankey
    Last edited: Mar 6, 2014
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  3. Bolts4lyfe
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    Bolts4lyfe BoltTalker

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    I was tempted to have Cleveland take Watkins and Cooks, Which would be ridiculously unfair.

    Gordon, Watkins, Cooks, Cameron. Who the heck do you cover?

    As for my cluster I have

    1A Jason Verrett
    1B Luis Nix
    1C Dee Ford

    I would be happy with any of these 3 players

    Nix: CB, OLB
    Verrett: OLB, OL
    Ford: CB, OL

    The Ford and Verrett lines I'd prefer
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  4. matilack
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    matilack #therealagent47

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    We are on the same page good sir.
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  5. Jesse Kemp
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    Jesse Kemp BoltTalker

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    Look Tapa… I respect that you've got a Hispanic theme going here with your handle and your avi and all that, but Luis Nix? Is that Louis Nix's Peruvian cousin? Is his nickname "Chocolate de Irlandes?" Is he coming off un lesion de rotilla?
  6. Jesse Kemp
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    Jesse Kemp BoltTalker

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    Until they have someone who can get those guys the ball, I don't think you would really have to worry about it too much.
  7. Bolts4lyfe
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    Bolts4lyfe BoltTalker

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    To be fair, Brian Hoyer looked more than adequate in those two games he played before he attempted to slide and tore his ACL.
    Not saying he's the answer but having 2 or 3 good to great wr's can help make an above average QB look like a pro bowler at times.
  8. Bolts4lyfe
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    Bolts4lyfe BoltTalker

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    Just did a simulator mock
    I doubt some of these players go where I got them but if they do, sign me up for this draft

    25
    CB KYLE FULLER
    VIRGINIA TECH
    57
    DE MARCUS SMITH
    LOUISVILLE
    89
    OT BILLY TURNER
    NORTH DAKOTA STATE
    121
    C MARCUS MARTIN
    USC
    153
    DT RYAN CARRETHERS
    ARKANSAS STATE
    185
    WR CODY LATIMER
    INDIANA
    217
    DE AARON LYNCH
    USF
  9. MtlBoltsFan
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    MtlBoltsFan Jesse Ventura/Howard Stern 2016

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    LOL

    Marcus Smith and Billy Turner are huge scrubs and guys the Chargers would never draft

    Have you even watched Billy Turner play? Dude will not even make a roster.... he doesn't even have a kickslide, he gallops like a drunken cowboy and would get abused by 3rd string players in training camps. His technique is worse than Canadian D2 University players.
  10. SuperCharger92
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    SuperCharger92 BoltTalker

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    This new 2.0 one I have is a work in progress, so bare with me again. I'm really bored right now, this could easily change because there are still some big names out there yet to be signed. Next one I'll do will probably be a week or two before the draft. I have explanations as well.


      1. HOU - DE - Jadeveon Clowney - HOU goes after the best player in this draft. No doubt.
      2. STL - OT - Greg Robinson - Think STL might stay here, Robinson is a guy that fits the scheme.
      3. JAX - QB - Teddy Bridgewater - Perfect scenario for JAX. No way Henne is their QB week 1.
      4. CLE - QB - Johnny Manziel - This has CLE written all over it.
      5. OAK - WR - Sammy Watkins - Get used to it Chargers fans, he'll be harassing us.
      6. ATL - DE - Khalil Mack - ATL built the interior DL through FA, now time to get a pass rusher.
      7. TB - QB - Blake Bortles - No trust in Glennon by Lovie's staff. Perfect fit.
      8. MIN - ILB - CJ Mosley - CB could easily be selected here, no way MIN reaches with a QB.
      9. BUF - FS - Ha Ha Clinton-Dix - Losing Byrd will hurt, need a playmaker on the back end.
      10. DET - OT - Jake Matthews - DET selects BPA, Matthews likely to start at RT, Waddle moves inside.
      11. TEN - OLB - Anthony Barr - TEN needs an OLB badly in Horton's new 3-4 scheme.
      12. NYG - TE - Eric Ebron - NYG has nobodies at TE, Ebron is too athletic and gifted to pass up.
      13. STL - CB - Darqueze Dennard - Perfect fit. Fisher loves his physical CBs.
      14. CHI - DT - Aaron Donald - CHI upgraded the DE positions, now time to get an inside DL.
      15. PIT - OT - Taylor Lewan - Reach by PIT here, but he fits what they like at OT.
      16. BAL - NT - Louis Nix - BAL will probably want to move Ngata to DE, he's more effective there.
      17. DAL - DE - Kony Ealy - Cowboys being typical, reach on a need here.
      18. NYJ - WR - Mike Evans - Decker is not a WR1, they get a big target in Evans at WR.
      19. MIA - OT - Zach Martin - Dallas Thomas was awful at OT last year, Martin too versatile to pass on.
      20. ARI - OLB - Dee Ford - Abraham is in the last year of his contract, redshirt year for Ford.
      21. GB - ILB - Ryan Shazier - GB needs an upgrade alongside AJ Hawk, but could go WR, OLB or FS.
      22. PHI - CB - Justin Gilbert - PHI still have questions at CB ranking 32nd against the pass in '13.
      23. KC - SS/FS - Jimmie Ward - Andy Reid loves his DBs, Ward has great man to man skills, good fit.
      24. CIN - OG - Xavier Sua'Filo - Losing Collins in FA, Whitworth will move back to OT, OG is a hole to fill.
      25. SD - CB - Jason Verrett - SD ranked 28th against the pass in '13, instant upgrade/scheme fit.
      26. CLE - WR - Odell Beckham Jr. - CLE forming a dangerous offense to aid their solid defense.
      27. NO - CB - Bradley Roby - Ranked 2nd against the pass in '13, the release of Greer opens up a hole.
      28. CAR - WR - Brandin Cooks - CAR lost pretty much every one of their WRs in FA, need a playmaker.
      29. NE - DT - Timmy Jernigan - Release of Wilfork looming, Jernigan offers same run stuffing qualities.
      30. SF - NT - Ra-Shede Hageman - Versatile DL for SF to work with. Either at NT or DE.
      31. DEN - CB - Kyle Fuller - Talib has an injury history, Harris is coming off ACL tear, need depth here.
      32. SEA - OG - David Yankey - Very versatile, arguably SEA's only weak link last year was their OL play at times. Yankey will provide insurance inside and outside.
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  11. Bolts4lyfe
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    Bolts4lyfe BoltTalker

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    I really like the pick of Verrett. Dennard and Gilbert may be considered the better prospects to the draft analysts but that doesn't meant anything if they don't fit the scheme we run, especially in Dennards case. Where as Verrett (as I've said before) looks like he was born for this defense. If we do go CB but not Verrett the other one I really like is Kyle Fuller. In later rounds The other CB that is great gaining my interest is EJ Gaines (in 3rd or 4th round)

    I would welcome the idea to grab 2 cb's in this draft. Another idea I've been thinking (and Im afraid I may be putting too many eggs in one basket is adding Deon Buccanon in the mix,
  12. SuperCharger92
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    SuperCharger92 BoltTalker

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    Watch Verrett's OSU game, they tried a fade route on him 3 times and he deflected all 3. They even put a WR that was 6'2 on him. With shorter corners its all about arm length and vertical. Both Jason Verrett and Steve Williams are similar. Verrett just has those intangibles you can't coach. He dissects plays instantly and breaks on the ball.

    A guy in the later rounds with almost the same intangibles is Rashaad Reynolds out of Oregon State. I would love to grab Aaron Colvin in the 6th also and possibly designate him for a return or just IR him for the whole year.
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  13. Bolts4lyfe
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    Bolts4lyfe BoltTalker

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  14. SuperCharger92
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    SuperCharger92 BoltTalker

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  15. The LBC
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    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    Yeah, Kyle and I (I've been doing some writing at DraftChargers with him this year) have been back and forth on Verrett vs. Fuller, and we're fairly comfortable with either one of them at 25. Both have some minor concerns, but just about all of it is coach-able/scheme-able to hedge against. With Fuller, it's that he's got a high backpedal - less of an issue because we don't ask our CB's to press much at all, but still would need to be ironed out and worked on in camp (this is actually a place that MMA training can help with because there are drills there that can help force guys to sink their butts lower when dropping, thus helping eliminate any extra/wasteful steps in transition to running stride-for-stride with receivers). With Verrett, he needs to dial back the aggressiveness just a touch (play a bit smarter) and put in reps with the jug machine (he dropped several interceptions that he got his hands on the last two seasons) - but again... fixable.
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  16. The LBC
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    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    Just some comments/constructive criticism - take it for whatever it's worth to you.

    HOU - Unless they plan to play Clowney at OLB, he doesn't fit their scheme. Romeo would have to go anti-Romeo or switch heavily over to the "Psycho" formation (ran it in Cleveland for a time) for the #1 overall pick (and JJ Watt) as block-eating 5-Techs. That's A LOT of movement/adapting to do for a coach that hasn't shown that to be among his stronger traits.

    OAK - Comes down to how they feel about McGloin. Reggie McKenzie showed last season (and it's pretty much been the Ted Thompson philosophy - and should be noted that Thompson uses a prospect evaluation process not dissimilar to how Al Davis graded guys in the 70's and 80's... when he was actually really good at it) that where guys rank on his board may not necessarily correspond with where pundits have those guys. Now, Sammy is a guy that does fit into that mold, but I don't think that he's necessarily a lock for this pick.

    BUF - They have that guy already - or feel that they do - hence why they elected to extend Aaron Williams and let Byrd walk for what Byrd was demanding monetarily. They're a tough one to peg and it may come down to what value falls to them. They also invested two mid-day picks in safety last season (Duke Williams in the 4th and Jon Meeks in the 5th) and you know what they say about fans tending to undervalue what front offices think of their own draft picks (promotions from within).

    NYG - Eli loves TE's, so Ebron could look appealing. Not entirely sure that Reese puts a high enough premium on the TE position to view Ebron as valuable as others might at that spot - and the Giants are historic value- and trench-drafters early on under Jerry Reese.

    PIT - Maybe they shouldn't, but they're a team that appears to value interior OL earlier in the draft than OT. If they buck a trend here, I tend to think it might be not taking WR's early (since the Santonio/Burress fiascoes) and sinking the pick into Evans who gives them something in their receiving corps (a big, tall, wall-off red-zone target) they'd lacked for a while. Remember that they kept Todd Haley on staff as OC even despite the poor performance last season, and Haley's said he wanted to throw more with that offense.

    KC - Andy Reid loves DB's... but he loves trench players and "big hog-mollies" a lot more. It pains me because I really like him as a player, but I have trouble seeing the XSF getting past the Chiefs if he's still on the board. He's everything Andy thought Danny Watkins was going to be, and the Chiefs did just see some major turnover on their interior OL thanks to free agency. As much of a "need" as WR likely is for the Chiefs, if Andy's the one with the big stick in terms of calling the early draft picks (and that "Exec. VP of Football Operations" title suggests he is), I'd consider interior OL and DT/5-Tech to be more likely 1st round picks than WR.

    CAR - They need WR's, yes. Presently they project to start Marvin McNutt and Tavares King (only the later of which might be a serviceable option). But they're also a running offense first and foremost, and if anything Cam has shown he can produce well enough without weapons if his line keeps him standing. Can't necessarily say the same thing the other way around. They don't have the kind of GM I expect to reach (Gettleman is a Jerry Reese protege), but if they reach at all I'd wager it's for a trench guy. Really going to depend on where/how they grade Morgan Moses or how their physical on Kouandjio goes (I still think he's more a career RT than LT, but he's also the kind of prospect a team will draft as an LT and give him th shot there before kicking him to the right to salvage him). This is a team poised to start undrafted Byron Bell at LOT if they don't make a capable addition.

    CLE - Take it for what it's worth - and I'm almost inclined to believe the opposite this time of year - but there's a lot of talk out there (and not from the big-wig "we make money peddling panic and controversy" sources) that Cleveland isn't poised to take a QB with their 1st pick and that they're big on Jimmy Garoppolo (God help them if they are - that would be such a Cleveland pick). I doubt all of it's true, but there may be a kernel of truth in there: Either that they're big on Garoppolo or not poised to take a QB with their 1st pick (probably the more likely). If Michael Lombardi was still their GM, I'd saw sew up Johnny to them - but with him gone (and honestly with him getting canned in a window where they're likely to address the QBotF position in this draft) it seems rather telling that they wouldn't go with the obvious Lombardi "athlete" pick at the position.
  17. SuperCharger92
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    SuperCharger92 BoltTalker

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    Thanks enjoyed that.

    I just though that HOU and probably every team in this draft sees Clowney as an elite DE/OLB prospect and also the best player in this draft. I think it would be tough for them to pass up on him and if he does get passed up I expect STL to trade out once again because a team with a need there (ATL, BUF, TENN) will be aggressive and trade up.

    I agree on everything else pretty much, I just mocked Clinton-Dix to BUF because Byrd is such a huge hole to fill. I know they invested picks in Williams and Meeks but could they really be the answers there? Who knows, they clearly have an idea though. I really don't see any holes on their roster besides possibly another DE and TE. I don't buy Jake Matthews or another OL going there.
  18. The LBC
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    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    I don't buy OL to Buffalo unless they go way off the reservation and take either Zack Martin or XSF that high as a guard (not inconceivable, as we're coming off a draft where two guards went in the Top 15). They do have a need at guard and if Marrone's scheme is as much like Sean Payton's as I'm led to believe then guard-play is put at a higher premium than tackle-play is in that offense. So if they fall in love with a guard prospect, it's not unfathomable they bite - probably would try to trade back, but that failed they could well bite considering how poor their guards were last year after Levitre left in FA. Trying to force Jake Matthews to change positions to anywhere except maybe center is foolish IMO; I don't even much care for him as an RT and if put there he has similar struggles to what Joeckel had this year at RT. He's a immensely technical, finesse LT - that's not a bad thing if you're also talented, Joe Thomas is essentially the same thing, Alex Mack is exactly that at the center position.
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  19. NYCharger
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    NYCharger BoltTalker

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    Don't know how I stumbled across this site but you guys really know your ****. Thanks for the analysis.
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  20. The LBC
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    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    Fair warning, it's long (what post from me isn't though?), but here's my 1st round thus far. Explanations are really intended to create talking points and bring up some things that may/should be affecting decisions.

    I'm not projecting trades (yet... I'll do one with a trades in April), but if there's clear-cut potential for one I've made sure to note where and for what prospect(s).

    1.1 - Houston Texans: Teddy Bridgewater [QB, Louisville]
    - Clowney may be a dark horse, but I'm not sure Houston's fan base could survive another time around with the #1 overall and not coming out with a franchise QB. I don't see Manziel as being in the conversation here - which has little to do with my own opinion of his abilities and more to do with him just not possessing the traits which Bill O'Brien desires in a QB to the degree that both Bridgewater and Bortles do. So really this is a two-man race that ultimately could come down to interviews. Each has their own red flags and each has their clear selling-points. At this stage, I'm more inclined to trust the guy that I've had firmly ranked as a Top-2 QB in this class for over a year versus the late-riser. Ultimately if something puts BOB off Teddy it won't be his size/bulk, it will be simply liking the potential of Bortles more and believing he can maximize it.

    1.2 - St. Louis Rams (via Washington): Greg Robinson [OT, Auburn]
    - Les Snead is a GM that has shown he's willing to overlook lack of technical refinement or great experience for high-end upside (see the picks of Tavon Austin, Alec Ogletree, Janoris Jenkins, and Michael Brockers over higher-floor talents available at similar positions). Robinson has massive potential and comes equipped early on as a run-blocking boon; he does still need some work and coaching on his pass-blocking technique, though. This may feel eerily similar to Rams fans of Billy Devaney passing on the safer Eugene Monroe (in this case Jake Matthews) for Jason Smith. The nice part is that Robinson is both more athletic than Smith was and shows all signs of being brighter and possessing a better work ethic. This time around the Rams have a Fisher/Boudreau combination they lacked in '09. Robinson could finally give them the franchise LT they've been searching for since Orlando Pace. Clowney is in play here, as is a trade out possibility, but ultimately I feel as though Clowney is worth more to the Rams as trade-bait than he is in the lineup. Keep eyes peeled for this pick to be traded (one of the Rams' 1st's will be).

    1.3 - Jacksonville Jaguars: Jadeveon Clowney [DE, South Carolina]
    - We know two things for certain: Per Jacksonville owner Shad Khan, the Jags will be drafting a QB at some point in May and General Manager David Caldwell is a dyed-in-the-wool Best Player Available drafter, perfectly willing to pass on what he views to be a lesser QB prospect for a player of substantially greater value. Clowney is a defender that transcends scheme - something that will truly appeal to Gus Bradley giving him a piece that truly embodies the hybrid-approach between 4-3 and 3-4 schemas he deploys. This gives him a piece that can be lined up as a LEO, a 5-Technique defensive end, or 3-Technique tackle (most likely the first 2) and make the players around him better by his mere presence. One concern I'm certain will be voiced, particularly given Bradley's hard stance on the matter, are the questions surrounding Clowney's effort. But go back and watch the tape and consider how conservatively the Gamecocks used him - through three quarters of most games he was lined up on the right and told rush the passer "even though they're triple-teaming you on most plays." That's going to wear on a guy, particularly when he knows he has the kind of ability that if he were moved around the line (as SCe finally did late in some games, though only after Clowney had been worn down) he could be contributing much more. For Caldwell's track record in terms of willingness to trade up, because of lack of sample-size, we have to refer largely to his mentor Jerry Reese with the Giants, which suggests their more likely to stand pat. If a Blake Bortles fell to the bottom of the 1st, it's possible they might make a low-cost attempt to jump 8 or so picks given they move to the end of the rotation among QB needy teams Cleveland and Oakland in the 2nd. But limited history shows that a Clowney/Carr or Clowney/Smith (who has a lot of qualities that will appeal to Bradley) combination projects much more as Caldwell's test versus Bortles/BPA unless Bradley really pounds the table for Bortles.

    1.4 - Cleveland Browns: Blake Bortles [QB, Central Florida]
    - Typically when rumors start circulating this early in the process that a club (particularly one in possession of three picks in the Top 40 selections) has substantial interest in a particular player they are the last thing I'm willing to believe. This is the case here as well as it just reeks of media-generated rumor trying to sell copy by talking of trade-up's and polarizing prospects. Rest assured, I'm completely convinced Johnny Football will go in the Top 10 picks - I'm not convinced he's worth that, but just as I was confident Tim Tebow would be drafted in the 1st round in 2010 the writing is similarly on the wall. I just don't think Cleveland's going to be the team to take him. That said, I don't foresee them expecting to find Bortles available at this pick and being quite content to snatch him up if/when he is. And for Bortles, who does still need development, this is actually a very good situation to go into: The Browns have a capable Kitna/Maddox-esque option in Brian Hoyer who can play productive stop-gap and a fanbase that has suffered for so long they're almost patient by default, and thusly won't be pressuring the team to plug in the QB of the Future prematurely if it threatens his development. Moreover, Brian DaBoll's offensive scheme actually fits rather well with what Bortles does well and can help mask some of his deficiencies.

    1.5 - Oakland Raiders: Johnny Manziel [QB; Texas A&M]
    - Yes, he's a polarizing prospect, but there's a part of me that wouldn't be surprised at all if this pick was Johnny Football because it's the Raiders who, even under Reggie McKenzie, have been content to bushwhack their own path in the draft from the consensus path (see DJ Hayden picked in the 2013 Top 10), but they're also a club coming off a season where they gave it a go with a quarterback with deficiencies similar to Manziel's (tendency for floaters, premature bailing on a perfectly good pocket, and forcing the ball to one specific receiver) in Terrelle Pryor to little success. That said, they seem to have fully accepted that they're in a progressive rebuild and Johnny is a project, even if he does present some traits that lead one to believe he could start out the gate (with tempered expectations). They retained OC Greg Olson who is himself "a quarterback guy," and I wouldn't be shocked to see them utilize some of that $70 million in available cap-space to bring in a veteran mentor-type for whatever young QB they do decide to run with, be it a Josh McCown, Shaun Hill, or Josh Freeman (less mentor, more QB whom Olson has previously worked with directly while in Tampa).

    1.6 - Atlanta Falcons: Jake Matthews [OT; Texas A&M]
    - Thomas Dmitroff is normally a guy who likes his H/W/S guys, but he has demonstrated that when a just plain all-around good value player at a position of need falls into his lap, he won't hesitate to snatch him up. While he doesn't have the ceiling of Greg Robinson, Matthews represents a considerably higher floor with marginally less potential. What he does present is someone much more able to step in immediately on Matt Ryan's blind side and keep him a lot cleaner than Sam Baker did in 2013. In terms of the character and intangibles that Atlanta covets, Matthews has them all: A 2013 team captain, a sterling NFL pedigree, and a two-time All-American. Jake needs to add lower-body strength, some of that I expect to be in-process right now leading into the combine, but reasonably it's going to take a year in a pro-level strength and conditioning program to get him where most would like him to be. In the interim his technique is crisp enough that he can hold his own as a Day One starter at left tackle.

    1.7- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Sammy Watkins [WR; Clemson]
    - New GM Jason Licht comes to Tampa from a Cardinals organization and Steve Keim regime that are staunch Best Player Available drafters. In this case the best player available also fills something of a need for the Bucs. Mike Williams is coming off an injury and should be slated for a full recovery, but the offense being installed by Jeff Tedford is far more QB-driven than the run-centric approach of former coach Greg Schiano with considerably more spread elements than the Bucs have run in recent years. Watkins is a star in the making, equal parts Josh Gordon and Percy Harvin, with the ability to stretch the field and produce underneath, operating on the outside or in the slot. If the Bucs look to the defensive side of the ball, it's possible that Lovie Smith takes a shine to Khalil Mack and sees him as another Lance Briggs in the making, but he's also had a phenomenal track record with getting the most out of Day 2 and 3 LB's.

    1.8 - Minnesota Vikings: Derek Carr [QB; Fresno State]
    - If the board falls this way, I actually expect one of Minnesota or Buffalo to be fielding trade offers and move down as there are several players of value who fill needs for them, but no one that's head and shoulders above the others in respect to pure value. With Watkins coming off the board and a receiver-wanton Lions team teed up, a team with aspirations of A&M's Mike Evans likely needs to make a move here. If the Vikings stay put things become interesting. Arguably quarterback is their greatest need, though the value on a Derek Carr or Zach Mettenberger isn't spectacular in the Top 10; I suspect given Rick Spielman's penchant for trading up in the draft, the Vikings are a prime candidate to move back into the 1st to catch a falling QB if they can't move back from this pick to try and snag Carr in the teens. Of late, when it comes to drafting, Spielman appears to target the consensus guys in the media and the "late risers." To me, that could well be Aaron Donald. Zimmer molded an All-Pro out of a nearly identical prospect in Geno Atkins - though the argument could be made that Donald is more pro-ready than Atkins was. The Vikings will likely let Jared Allen walk, but re-up Everson Griffin to slide into his spot. However, Kevin Williams is a free agent, and basically done, with no standout on the roster to replace him other than possibly Sharif Floyd who is more Domata Peko than Geno Atkins.

    1.9 - Buffalo Bills: Xavier Su'a-Filo [OG; UCLA]
    - First real "shocker" pick, but Su'a-Filo is a very good guard with a rather frightening ceiling. I realize that some are more want to project an OT to Buffalo, but consider that Doug Marrone's offense is intended to mimic what he and Sean Payton achieved in New Orleans. In that offense, there was a considerably higher premium put on excellent guard-play than there was on tackle-play; hence why when the Saints lost one of the two outstanding guards to free agency they went out and spent big on another - and have remained reluctant to unsettle those two players even when in a tenuous cap situation. After Andy Levitre left in free agency last season, Buffalo's line performance (but specifically the guards) took a tumble and with 1st-round-failure Chris Williams the only solution thus far, an early interior OL wouldn't shock me in the slightest for Bills. Yes, too early for a guard - maybe - but we're in a year following one where two guards went in the Top 10. Stranger things have happened and Buffalo has shown they're not afraid to beat their own drum and jump on upside guys that can play immediately but are just scratching their surface.

    1.10 - Detroit Lions: Justin Gilbert [CB, Oklahoma State]
    - Detroit's Martin Mayhew is, by his own claim, a BPA drafter. However, the Lions have managed to paint themselves into enough of a cap-issue situation that they're now cutting starters to be able to maneuver around the massive contracts of Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson. Pure need would dictate a cornerback here, possibly even a linebacker, but Mayhew has ignored the cornerback position early on for multiple years now and I refuse to get burned again, right? Right? I don't feel Gilbert is BPA here, but Mayhew has appeared to really heavily factor "undeveloped upside" into his BPA evaluation, and Gilbert certainly has that. Long-term, I think Detroit ends up with a really good pick here. Short-term, he may disappoint to produce as some fans in Detroit have to expect from their 1st round picks; in fact, his eventual future may lie as a "spur", freelancer CB/S hybrid that's becoming slowly popular around the league. Gilbert's a zone-coverage corner , not the press-man one he's being sold as, but DC Terryl Austin is a DB guy and will be able to refine Gilbert and figure out how to position him in the best role (stop thinking strict positions, start thinking "roles") to succeed.

    1.11 - Tennessee Titans: Khalil Mack [LB; Buffalo]
    - There are many that see "Ray Horton" and any mention of the 3-4 formation and directly assume that the Titans will snatch at the first NG available to them with this pick (presumably Notre Dame's Louis Nix if his surgically-repaired meniscus checks out). However, Horton's scheme has actually more emulated a 3-4/4-3 hybrid and is fueled by versatile pass-rushers. Mack offers the Titans something they truly lack, outside of an overpaid and aging Kamerion Wimbley - a legitimate edge-rushing threat. Akeem Ayers will likely slot in on the strong-side, and potentially kick inside with Zach Brown in nickel packages. Derrick Morgan just doesn't project well to playing in space, and ultimately I wouldn't be surprised to see him spending his time largely as an LDE in 4-downed linemen formations and as a 5-Tech when they go to three (similar to how Matt Shaughnessy was utilized by the Cardinals at times this past season).

    1.12 - New York Giants: Zach Martin [OG/OC; Notre Dame]
    - Jerry Reese is historically a by-the-book BPA and trenches drafter. However, with that in mind, he's also a very savvy GM and in-tune with what goes on around the league. The Giants, and specifically Eli Manning's struggles in 2013, are presently in a very similar situation to where the 2012 Chargers were: Injuries, age, and lack of great talent across the OL, coupled with a scheme that did that aspect no favors and an OC who refused to adapt led to a lull in production and a spike in turnovers. I'm on record as believing that Taylor Lewan's lack of proper knee-bend and piss-poor character is going to drag him down like concrete-loafers which will serve to boost Martin's stock. Is he a bit too much of a clone of 2013 draft pick Justin Pugh... maybe, but he's also more versatile, which I believe is the selling point here. Martin projects best as an interior lineman, and has even seen some time at Notre Dame as a center. That kind of versatility sells, especially for a Giants team that lacks at the center position and is showing that they grasp needing a bit of urgency to keep the Tom Coughlin contingent around. While he lacks the elite lateral agility to be a stellar LT, he performs extremely well in a phone booth, and could provide a really nice pairing lined up inside of Pugh on the left. Two things are going to do the most to help turn Eli Manning around: Keeping him clean and getting an effective and efficient running game going again. Eric Ebron may be really tough to pass on here, but Eli looks to his TE so often anyway that a competent guy with a decent set of hands will put up mid-level production if Manning has time to actually set up and find him on the field. No matter who it is, high floor is going to be an important factor in this pick as the Giants can't afford to wait around for a guy to develop this time.

    1.13 - St. Louis Rams: Mike Evans [WR; Texas A&M]
    - Simply put, here is Mike Evans' floor. If the Rams don't take him, they'll trade back here with someone who will. Not that Chicago is a massive threat, but Pittsburgh is - and in fact could be a team that offers up a 3rd or 4th round pick to jump up two slots here and more important ensure that no other team beats them to the punch on Evans. I'd expect the Jets to be in play here too - with as much as they've locked-in on receivers in the free agent process. And also possible the Panthers (less likely as they'd almost certain have to cough up a future 1st to make this kind of jump, without not picking again till Day 3, and they won't be want to do that) and the Niners (though again not as likely more so because of the absorbent cost the Rams would want to aid a division rival). The Rams biggest want will be at safety (though they could even take a shine to Evans themselves, as a pairing to dynamo Tavon Austin), where the value is better later. The only thing that could keep them from moving is that Chicago is desperately in need of safety help as well, and sitting with the next pick.

    1.14 - Chicago Bears: RaShede Hageman [DT; Minnesota]
    - Phil Emery covets H/W/S specimens (see Kyle Long, Brandon Hardin, Shea McClellin) and in this draft class outside of Clowney there is not greater prospect that fits that bill than Hageman and Gilbert - ironically neither are all that polished or play up to that athletic potential and Gilbert is already gone. The Bears have brought back Jay Ratliff and but may miss out on Henry Melton if Jerruh offers more than the one-year "show me" deal Chicago's offering to prove he's back from the ACL injury he suffered last season. If they lose Melton their DT corps (as we saw last season when Melton went out injured) is underwhelming at best. For the record, Hageman is not my top-rated DT in this class, but he has the highest ceiling - and Aaron Donald simply may not be "sexy" enough in the measurements department for Emery. Hageman needs to work on his hand-work something fierce and improve the consistency of his flexibility, but he has Richard Seymour kind of potential if he does put it all together.

    1.15 - Pittsburgh Steelers: Darqueze Dennard [CB; Michigan State]
    - With Cam Thomas signing on to spell at NT, Louis Nix isn't a likely possibility any longer, but the fact of the matter is that rookies rarely feature in Dick Lebeau's defenses unless injuries push them into action - so Nix's plug-and-play ability (assuming a clean bill of health) is less of a factor here anyway. Dennard, on top of being the top-rated corner prospect in this draft class, is actually a prospect I expect to struggle initially as a rookie if asked to start and be "the guy" right out the gate. His tackling technique needs more than a little refining and he's got to tone down how handsy he gets or he's going to draw a lot of penalties at the pro level. However, as a guy who could contribute in sub-packages and apprentice under aging Ike Taylor for a season before assuming the reins in 2015, he makes a really nifty fit. As I said earlier, if Mike Evans falls to #13 and Kevin Colbert doesn't have to pay out the backside, I wouldn't be shocked to see the Steelers make a rare trade-up in the 1st (though it would be a rather minor amount up) to secure him as something they've lacked since Plaxico Burress is a big-bodied, go-up-and-get-it red zone target, and with Todd Haley still in tow running the offense, they'll stick with his 2013 plan of wanting to throw more than is typically expected of "Steeler football." Dennard's a great fit for them, but I'm not sure he's the actual pick.

    1.16 - Dallas Cowboys: Tim Jernigan [DT; Florida State]
    - Admittedly, the Jones' are tough nuts to figure out. I can typically peg the position they're going to go with most picks, but often miss on the specific prospect. I'm wagering a DT is likely here with an outside chance of a DE (as both DE spots are equally important in a Rod Marinelli Tampa-2). If it were me making the pick it would be Aaron Donald, hands down, as he's the best fit available as a Tampa-2 marauding 3-Technique DT. And while the knock on Donald is lack of size, he had an impressive Senior Bowl and would likely serve as a shocker-pick to some on Day One. For the time being, I'm hedging my bet a bit and going with the standout underclassman who projects to be able to play the 3- or 1-tech in Marinelli's scheme in Jernigan. I wouldn't rule out Kony Ealy here either, given that he fits the Henry Melton/better-Israel-Idonije mold of a player who can play outside in - LDE in the base package and kicking inside to the 3-Tech on passing downs. The odds of a DE may have gone up here with the whole Ware fiasco (evidently Jerry believe that he'd be able to get DeMarcus back less-expensively by releasing him and underestimated the player's market), but the Jones' had a good draft last year - so I'm going to try and give them some benefit of the doubt. (That said, they have sort of alternated "good pick"/"bad (overzealous) pick" the last 4-5 years, so this is scheduled to be an off-year.


    1.17 - Baltimore Ravens: Louis Nix III [NT; Notre Dame]
    - It's not that I'm not high on Ebron, I just don't know that I see Vernon Davis and in spite of the hard sell of "everybody wanting a Graham or Gronk" bit of the "copycat league" shpiel, Tyler Eifert fell out of the Top 20 last year. The Ravens managed to keep the more important of their starting tackles (Monroe), but with Gary Kubiak and Rick Dennison coming to town, likely too is a Shanahan-esque zone-blocking scheme that I'm not entirely sure Taylor Lewan fits terribly well, certainly possible (and Ozzie hasn't shied away from making his coaches work guys into the scheme before) though. What the Ravens really need is a center, as AQ Shipley is just too undersized to get any kind of reasonable push and their run-game suffered tremendously for it in 2013 and Zack Martin is off the board. However, unless they plan on reaching - which isn't Ozzie's style - the best perceived value here may be the "slipping" Ebron who, with all due respect to Dennis Pitta, provides much more of the Shannon Sharpe mold of TE that went electric in Kubiak's scheme, but if Nix's knee checks out he's the right combination of value and need. A trade back is a definite possibility if the right offer comes along, but ideally the Ravens would prefer to play Haloti Ngata at DE and not NT in their three-man sets, and while they crapped out on Mount Cody, Nix has the flexibility to go with the plug-and-play potential Cody provided, so that he actually won't get abused in the run game like the later did.

    1.18 - New York Jets: Eric Ebron [TE; UNC]
    - This pick may or may not sit well with a majority of Jets fans, but here's my line of thinking. This draft will really tell us where John Idzik sits as a General Manager. I feel like he could allow himself to get pressured into drafting for the "trendy," H/W/S darling receiver, be it Ebron at TE or a guy that fits the more stereotypical mold of a "#1 receiver" in Kelvin Benjamin - who isn't as pro-ready as they require and really is a higher-ceiling version of a player they already have on the roster in Stephen Hill. The smart play is the best receiver available, Odell Beckham Jr. I'm not confident Idzik is going to see that, or that he'll have Rex's eye for defensive talent to bail him out here. At his heart, I see a guy who seemed feel compelled to draft a CB early to replace Darrelle Revis who he'd traded away. Ebron gives them a great weapon and I'm probably underselling him here, but if given the choice between a high-end TE and a high-end WR for a QB who hasn't shown to be anywhere near top or middle shelf, I'll take the WR. Rex, however, will want the blocker. And there's still only a slight chance they're still at this pick, as they're my odds-on favorite to trade up if Mike Evans starts to fall. If this is St. Louis, watch for Clinton-Dix or Ryan Shazier to come into play here.

    1.19 - Miami Dolphins: CJ Mosely [LB; Alabama]
    - As expected Miami made a hard run at Branden Albert in free agency and, albeit overpaying, got their guy to man the LOT spot. Now, they're a team that could potentially be starting 5 new OL on Day 1 (with Mike Pouncey likely to earn himself a suspension from the league for BullyGate, though he'll end up back after that's up). Thing is, the best OL "value" here, I'm not sure is in their best interest to select as the character concerns trailing Taylor Lewan could easily lead someone to call him a younger Richie Incognito - they are both very similarly the Alpha Male type personality. As far as guards go, David Yankey could be in play if they really want to reach for a need, and is possible, but not likely. The Phins are a team in this instance that's hosed by the fact that Martin and particularly Su'a-Filo go offer the board earlier than expected. The consolation prize isn't bad however, as they appear intent on sticking with a 4-3 front and CJ Mosely makes an excellent fit as the sort of player who can play multiple positions, as well as cover athletic TE's like Gronkowski and Ebron (now in the division).

    1.20 - Arizona Cardinals: Anthony Barr [LB; UCLA]
    - As already established, GM Steve Keim is a strict BPA practitioner. Barr drops from his once-touted Top 5 status because... well... the guy is way, way more raw than given credit for and is entirely a speed rusher who has a whopping one pass-rush move. You're not going to be able to plug-and-play Barr as a starter and not expect him to struggle. For the Cardinals this presents very nice value and an heir apparent who can learn behind John Abraham. Taylor Lewan is definitely in play here, even with the Cards signing Jared Veldheer, as their needs on the OL went beyond just one tackle. But I wouldn't let the Tyrann Mathieu situation get you too willing to believe Arizona has no regard for prospects' character whatsoever; Mathieu had an advocate on the team who was willing to mentor him. Lewan doesn't appear to. The potential sleeper is Derek Carr who needs some work and refinement, but has the big arm that Bruce Arians covets and could make a sneaky pick to develop behind Carson Palmer.

    1.21 - Green Bay Packers: Hasean Clinton-Dix [S; Alabama]
    - This pick is almost certainly defense for the Packers, and the likelihood points to either defensive line or safety. Were a good-value safety prospect not to have fallen I'd have been much more inclined to lean DL, but the value is there and from the sound of things, the Packers are planning a transition to a more traditional Dom Capers style defensive line, focused on linemen that are lighter and quicker than the 330+ plus Ryan Pickett and BJ Raji who both look on their way out the door. If Timmy Jernigan lasts this far he's a far more likely option than Louis Nix, if the previous assertion holds true. Though I personally don't rate him as highly, Stephen Tuitt could draw some consideration here as well. That said, Thompson covets DB's that a 6'0"+ and ideally Green Bay would like to be able to deploy as many as three at one time.

    1.22 - Philadelphia Eagles: Dee Ford [OLB; Auburn]
    - Howie Roseman in previous years, and particularly when paired with Chip Kelly last year, appeared to really take a shine to late-risers (see Fletcher Cox, Lane Johnson, Earl Wolff, Mychal Kendricks, and Zach Ertz). The Eagles, while they may stand to lose one or two receivers in Riley Cooper and/or Jeremy Maclin, need to use their early picks to shore up their defense which faded fast down the stretch last season in spite of their winning record (which was largely carried by their offense). Were Clinton-Dix to last one more pick, he'd come off the board here. It's possible Chip takes a shine to LaMarcus Joyner as a prospect to move to safety, but he's likely to be deployed more as a Swiss Army Knife type defender than a pure safety which doesn't fit the Eagles' needs as well. Elsewhere, they need pass-rush as aging Trent Cole is their only consistent edge-contributor with 2013 free agent acquisition Connor Barwin struggling to contribute and Vinnie Curry and Brandon Graham proving to be relatively average. In many ways Ford reminds of a younger version of Trent Cole - undersized and needing to add bulk before he can hold up against the run, but with astoundingly quick explosion off the snap (though he could do to improve his snap anticipation) and slick flexibility to bend the edge and run the arc.

    1.23 - Kansas City Chiefs: Taylor Lewan [OT; Michigan]
    - Likely floor for Lewan here, though my expectation is that KC (who has no 2nd; Alex Smith trade) and Carolina (who are slated to start a UDFA at LOT at the moment) come to terms and swap spots in a deal here. Lewan actually fits that kind of scrappy (somewhat dirty) attitude that the Panthers may be want to employ as that was what could be considered the type of play that saw them ousted from the NFC playoffs this past season... from the other team. The Chiefs are going OL in the 1st round, I'd put money on it. Andy Reid is calling the shots. Andy Reid LOVES beef. Ideally, David Yankey probably fits more with what they need given that their interior OL just got plundered in free agency, but it's possible they look to grab Lewan themselves, moving either him or Barry Stephenson to guard. I doubt the Chiefs are able to squeeze 2nd out of Carolina, but they could, or at minimum would likely net a 3rd this year and a future Day 2 pick.

    1.24 - Cincinnati Bengals: Kony Ealy [DE; Missouri]
    - I don't doubt that the Bengals will make a valiant attempt to re-sign pending free agent Michael Johnson, and Mike Brown generally isn't as cheap when resigning his own players. However, it's still Mike Brown and he's likely going to have a point of no return that he's not willing to go beyond in paying Johnson; if that's reached, Cincy will let him walk and look to replace him in the draft. The Bengals like their DE's big, tall, and long; and though I doubt it's true, there's enough sample-size to give suspicion that Mike Brown consults all the hot media Draft rags to create his big board. Kony Ealy definitely fits that bill and is actually pretty solid value here. He needs to demonstrate better awareness, better snap-anticipation, and clean up his handwork (few DL prospects don't), but he could step in and contribute immediately in an already potent defense.

    1.25 San Diego Chargers: Jason Verrett [CB; TCU]
    - The pieces seem to be connecting that the Tom Telesco's lining up to take a CB early in this draft, similarly to how he did OT in the 2013 draft. As scheme-fits go (important as hell and don't let anyone tell you otherwise), Jason Verrett and Kyle Fuller are the best fits for us - and I've got them as literally 1a/1b at this point. Verrett gets knocked for his height, but his vertical jump and his tape support that the guy (who wasn't exactly playing against midgets) wasn't losing jump-balls. Fuller has a coachable flaw - he gets too high and needs to sit lower - in his backpedal he needs to iron out so that he doesn't let his cushion (which he needs) get chewed up too quickly in our off-man Cover-3 look, but otherwise checks out superbly. In this particular, there may be several trade-up options that could suit us just fine though - Carolina moving up for Lewan if he makes this far (past KC) being one, Seattle moving up for Aaron Donald (who they reportedly love) being another, a team like Minnesota (if they pass on a QB earlier in the round) trying to get ahead of Cleveland (if they pass on a QB) being a third in a move up for David Carr. Despite that some folks will be bemoaning not getting Nix, we'd be sitting really pretty without many bad moves to make here if we're drafting for value.

    1.26 - Cleveland Browns (via Indianapolis): Odell Beckham Jr. [WR; LSU]
    - Gone is Michael Lombardi and his love affair with Davon Bess. In this case, the Browns provide up-and-coming QB Bortles with a receiver that fits his strengths with great YAC ability, a large catch-radius, and fantastic body-control to adjust to throws and make the catch. In a way OBJ is the anti-Lombardi pick: He's doesn't have great size or "elite" speed (he actually gets his separation with solid quickness and crisp routes/fakes), but he's a multi-function contributor who has a knack for making his QB's job much easier. I doubt they look running back this early after acquiring this pick by trading Trent Richardson, but it's possible; as is the possibility they look at a guard like Yankey or a RT like Kouandjio to kick Mitchell Schwartz inside to fill the spot at guard. CB Marcus Roberson may be a darkhorse pick here as he's the type of CB that new HC Mike Pettine really tends to like (athletic, long, and physical).

    1.27 - New Orleans Saints: Brandin Cooks [WR; Oregon State]
    - The Saints' 1st round picks in the Payton regime have traditionally been what would generally be labeled as the safer variety (i.e. higher floor over higher ceiling) and one of the noticeable determining factors towards this is production. That's actually what Cooks is, he's a safe, consistent producer that can fill the void of what the Saints were forced to shed for cap-space in Darren Sproles and Lance Moore. Sean Payton loves his gadget guys - there's going to be no escaping that. It's just a simple, very logical pick that gives the Saints someone who can come in immediately and contribute and is under a very inexpensive contract (relative to other starters at his position) for the remaining duration of Drew Brees' massive contract. Darkhorse selection here may actually be, believe it or not, a QB. Not only must the Saints prepare for life after Brees, but given their "all-in" approach this off-season, that may be coming sooner than later. Brees has been excellent QB and is a very good one, but make no mistake he benefits massively from Payton's scheme and, given time to develop within it, another QB could be suitably productive as well. Derek Carr (who could use a year to develop his pocket presence) or, and dear God would this be the stereotypical "Sean Payton" draft pick, AJ McCarron could be guys the Saints view as successors who could dig them out of Cap Hell sooner than later.

    1.28 - Carolina Panthers: Cyrus Kouandjio [OT; Alabama]
    - No team has been ravaged more this off-season than the Panthers, losing their starting LT (retirement), top 3 WR's, starting corner, and starting SS. Couple this with their ultra-limited cap space available and they've shoehorned themselves into likely having to draft for need despite their GM being from the Jerry Reese learning-tree, thus a BPA type. That in mind though, Jerry Reese is a trench-lover and in this case that fits Carolina's need. With the false injury reports put to rest on Kouandjio, I can return to disliking him as a pro-level LOT because I just don't see the quality kickslide and footwork necessary for it. He's still, almost certainly, going to get drafted by a team looking to try him first at LOT (because... why not?), but at least he has value to the Panthers if/when he fails there as he can still be a quality (if not high-end) RT or guard. If Taylor Lewan falls as I think he will/should, like I said, I expect Carolina to make a desperation move for him (hell, even if he's off the board they could make it for Cyrus), but if they're still here when the clock starts and Cyrus is as well... BINGO!

    1.29 - New England Patriots: Jace Amaro [TE; Texas Tech]
    - I'm actually quite torn here because I want to convince myself that Belichick would be the exact type of guy to say "screw it!" and pick Aaron Donald here. Based off the physical corners they've picked up in free agency, I'm expecting the Pats to blitz a lot more next season and Donald makes a rather frightening prospect in that sort of situation. Bill LOVES his TE's though, and Amaro gives him everything Aaron Hernandez did (plus height!) with only 1/3 the character issues (and none of the criminal/illegal ones!). More/most likely, the Pats trade this pick... because it's what they do - and we all get pissed.

    1.30 - San Francisco 49ers: Kyle Fuller [CB; Virginia Tech]
    - But they just re-signed Tramaine Brock... and brought in Chris Cook. But see, here's the thing - they don't have a CB under the age of 25 on the roster, and the 25 year old, starter Chris Culliver, hits free agency next season... when their starting QB is demanding $20 million per year. Safeguarding people, safeguarding. Realistically, the Niners are likely moving up from this pick, but Fuller gives them a ton of flexibility as an option corner or even safety if they asked him to make the conversion. I could see ILB getting a look too, just given that the likelihood of Navorro Bowman being ready to go Week 1 after that nasty injury in the NFCCG isn't very good, but they've got enough money tied up in that position, it may behoove them to wait a round or two on that for the position's true value.

    1.31 - Denver Broncos: Ryan Shazier [LB; Ohio State]
    - The Broncos are another team making a general "all-in" move to try and get Peyton that 2nd ring and it's natural to assume that they'd then be doing the same with their drafting, but team's going all-in typically do the exact opposite in the draft. This is the move to hedge against, and give them leverage in contract discussions with, Von Miller trying to rape them on a contract extension. Shazier gives them an immediate replacement to Wesley Woodyard, with some versatility to play inside or out, and also gives them a WLB that could fill Miller's role in the defense if they end up having to make hard choices among their 2015 free agents. Given that 4-3 DE's aren't exactly as plentiful in this draft class as guys who stand a chance at 3-4 OLB or LEO, Trent Murphy's got an off-chance here too if they choose to hedge against Derek Wolfe's contract demands, or develop someone behind Demarcus Ware for two years.

    1.32 - Seattle Seahawks: Aaron Donald [DT/DE; Pittsburgh]
    - They won't get him here (but would snatch him up if they could) and will likely move up to get him (I'm not certain, but I don't believe John Schneider has picked at his original 1st round selection in his entire tenure as GM, he trades up or back quite often), but by all accounts he's the guy they covet and he's a fantastic fit, as he can slot in and rotate with both Clinton McDonald and Michael Bennett in the 3- and 5-Technique spots on the line, likely building towards eventually replacing McDonald as the starter. If he's gone and they have no chance of laying hands on him, I could see David Yankey being in play, as their guard play - really the right side of their line - was a legitimate threat to Russell Wilson's health last season. Some may want to slot a WR here given the loss of Golden Tate and Sidney Rice to free agency, but WR is a low priority in the Seahawks offense.
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  21. Bolts4lyfe
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    Bolts4lyfe BoltTalker

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    If we do miss on NIX (which is likely) are there any NT prospects that look interesting to you, Ryan Carrethers or Justin Ellis in later rounds? also would you feel comfortable giving Jerrideu or Geathers first crack at the NT knowing we do have Lissemore (who was decent fill in) as a fall back option if we fail through the draft
  22. The LBC
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    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    Carreathers is kind of meh to me; he's not another Cam Thomas - but there's needed technical work and I'm not sold on his motor. Ellis is intriguing, but is likely going to see a boost in stock because he can play the 1-tech too.

    I'm of the opinion that if a prospect hasn't flashed as a 3-down NT, you're not going to develop him into one. Draft for the role you want him to play at that point. If it's a 2-down guy that plugs against the run, get the best guy you can for that specific role; if it's a guy to collapse the point of the pocket and draft blockers off the guys to his immediate right and left, get the best guy you can for that. But technique, flexibility, and lower body strength are more valuable that just pure girth.

    Wisconsin's Beau Allen (I've mentioned him in the past; he's a priority UDFA type) is an intriguing option, though he needs the weight room and likely doesn't offer much, if any, more this season than Jerideau does.

    Delaware's Zach Kerr is under the radar right now. He's never going to be outstanding against the run, but his hand-technique is at an advanced level of development from what we tend to see out of a lot of collegiate 0-Tech's - he understands pass-rushing hand technique too, which is nice.

    And as far as run plugs that don't seem big enough to get the job done but just plain do: BYU's Eathyn Manumaleuna. He's the literal anti-Cam Thomas: Hungry (he wants it and loves the game), old-school mold "smashmouth" football player, who sets a damn tone on the field. I doubt he's ever going to be a star, but I can't doubt he'll die trying to be one. And as far as 6th or 7th round picks or priority free agents go, you can do much, MUCH worse. He needs weight - but he's also Samoan and a rugger (rugby player) so he doesn't have to be "huge" (i.e. 350) to push piles or anchor if he gets low and leverage established. Offers some flexibility as a guy that could kick out to end in a pinch too for jumbo/goal-line packages. I took a similar liking to Ian Williams out of Notre Dame a couple of years ago, and he comes to mind here because he still plays at that similar "light" weight (305 lbs.), as a bulldog-type plug in the middle (San Francisco picked him up as a UDFA, he stuck, and while he has never been elevated to a starting position, he's worked his way into their rotation quite effectively). On tape, EM is a more explosive, nastier version of Williams.
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  23. MtlBoltsFan
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    MtlBoltsFan Jesse Ventura/Howard Stern 2016

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    I stopped reading at Xavier Sua-Filo at #9. You think Buffalo is going to take a "projectable guard" with the 9th overall pick in a deep draft?

    Sua-Filo's ceiling is Mike Goff. He possesses absolutely no traits worthy of such a high selection. Struggles with leverage against smaller DTs and struggles with power from large ones.

    Carrethers is dogshit arena league material. Ellis has a nice body but he sucks.

    Manumaleuna flashes every now and then and there was a time I said to myself "hey this kid can play"....... until watching him get abused snap after snap the next week. He's a scrub.

    Zach Kerr is flying under no one's radar. There were shitloads of teams at Delaware's pro day and teams are extremely intrigued. He put up spectacular #'s at the combine which just confirmed what you see on tape as this is a guy who at 325 lbs has chased ballcarriers 40 yards downfield to make tackles.
  24. The LBC
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    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    I don't necessarily do my mock's off of who I value tremendously high or a "If I were that team, this is who I'd draft" scenario. I've actually taken time to do my due-diligence and study trends & tendencies of the GM's and front offices around the league, and where I've seen evidence in the past - I won't discount the Stupid Factor, because it happens in EVERY draft.

    Is Su'a-Filo worth the #9 overall pick? Hell no, he isn't. Was Dion Jordan worth the #3 overall pick and what Miami paid to trade up there to get him? Hell no. Doesn't mean that teams that have shown a willingness to make aggressive, against-the-grain moves won't.

    If I were putting myself in every GM's shoes in this draft, then Aaron Donald would be easily a Top 10 pick and quite possibly Top 5, there'd be no way in hell I'd touch any QB not named Bridgewater until the late-1st at the absolute earliest, and I wouldn't be drafting Taylor Lewan or Kouandjio as anything other than RT's or in Kouandjio's case possibly a move to guard. But I'm not - my shtick is trying to project what other teams will do as much as purely evaluating prospects (fit and how front offices tend to draft plays as much, if not more, a part as pure value in my mocks).
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  25. MtlBoltsFan
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    MtlBoltsFan Jesse Ventura/Howard Stern 2016

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    Listen the difference is Dion Jordan was an athletic freak who measured at 6'6 with 34 inch arms and ran a 4.6 at 250 lbs. Maybe if Sua-Filo repped 225 40 times Buffalo would be dumb enough to make that move. Listen I get it you are an expert on Buffalo's offensive line but coming up with stuff like this as an excuse to flaunt your expertise is one of the biggest mistakes I have made in the past as a draft guru and you have destroyed the sanctity of your mock draft.

    Sua Filo abandoned football to go on a mormon mission..... it's clear he would rather search for golden plates than study film. There is no way he goes to Buffalo with Doug Whaley in charge at #9.

    Also good observations, Kouandijo is a piece of turd who got abused at Alabama and I don't have Lewan in my top 5 offensive tackles he is a primadona who gets flagged for holding or false starts at least once a game. He is closer in talent to Michael Schofield than he is to the top OT's of this class.
  26. MtlBoltsFan
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    MtlBoltsFan Jesse Ventura/Howard Stern 2016

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    I would recommend Manziel before the late 1st along with Bridgewater but only if I am a genius GM who is ready to build the offense around him and can identify the right players to surround him with and be committed to doing so. Some team brings him in and tries to make him something he is not is going to turn him into a bust.

    The reality is that Manziel has legitimate passing skills. He isn't a guy like Tim Tebow who will routinely skip passes in the dirt. You need to surround him with WRs who come back to the ball that is #1. That is a trait I have grown to love about Mike Evans is that he always comes back to the ball and even though it is fundamental stuff here, not all WRs do it. #2 is you have to have the right OL....... light footed, agile, intelligent blockers who work well in tandem... no 6'6 Jerome Claries at guard, let him see the field better and no 325 lb drive blocking studs who suck at pass pro even on the strong side. #3 is you need to get him a stud outlet TE who can work the middle, box out and win 1 on 1 over the top.

    and finally just keep working on his football education so that he can change plays at the LOS when necessary. he's intelligent enough and confident enough to be the guy and command an offense.


    this QB class is very difficult to grade and overall it sucks. ultimately though Bridgewater is not the next Akili Smith... akili completed 58% of his passes his last year in college, teddy completed 71%. I don't care what division you play in, even in the MAC 71% completion percentage says volumes about your ability as a passer and is a rare feat on any level. the good news is bridgewater has demonstrated consistent improvement each year in college which is what you want to see ideally.

    at first i thought to myself there hasn't been a pure black pocket passer in ages who was successful in the nfl (russell wilson doesn't count)...... but I think bridgewater has what it takes to be a very effective quarterback. his decision making is better than Bortles', his accuracy is better, his release is better, ... he is undoubtedly a better prospect than Bortles who at the moment is ranked #5 on my QB list.

    the thing that stands out most about bridgewater is his ability to remain calm under duress. that was why i loved matt ryan at BC... just completely blocked out pressure and was willing to take a hit if it meant getting the ball where it needed to be. bridgewater has shown more than any other QB in this class this trait and it takes QBs to great heights in the NFL. he keeps his eyes downfield and has a good feel for the activity around him but it doesn't affect his ability to get the ball where it needs to be.
  27. MtlBoltsFan
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    MtlBoltsFan Jesse Ventura/Howard Stern 2016

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    The only thing keeping me from having Garoppolo as the #1 qb in this class is how he folds under pressure. It's a crying shame because he has fantastic upper body mechanics, fantastic short-intermediate accuracy and underrated deep accuracy, good lower body mechanics too although he needs to shore up some things there. Jimmy throws fantastic touch passes all over the field and he is one of the best QBs in this class at looking off DBs as well as pump faking. Dude has some amazing tools. There is still hope with him but he looks like the kind of guy who is going to be scared shitless against nfl defenders... I can't tell entirely. I still have him ranked higher than Bortles based on his ceiling, I have him #3 of the QBs. Bortles release combined with how he stares down targets tells me he will likely be a 1.5:1 TD-INT ratio thrower in the NFL.
  28. The LBC
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    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    I'm starting to see why, if you're the big deal you claim to be, that the folks I converse with regularly who do make a living doing draft analysis (and have actually gotten the nod from major networks as guest analysts for programs on Day 3 of the draft - when you actually have to have watched tape to give acute analysis of a player selection, as opposed to the Kiper's and McShay's who just want to rehash what happened Day One) have never heard of you.

    You seem fond of using extreme words to come across as more grandiose - "expert," "flaunt, "destroying the sanctity." Now, if you actually do do this as a semi-profession then you'll grasp the notion (or at least you should) that unpopular opinions draw attention and get read, nothing sells in the media (absolutely NOTHING) more than controversy. So if/when you see the opportunity to explore something controversial that has a kernal of a logical root, it's worth exploring because you may just have a story that no one else does in the sense that you're not just writing the "everybody comes out happy"/mass-appeasing pieces that are everywhere and get lost in the shuffle. Thus far, I can only determine that your sense of controversy is childish name-calling, swearing, statements that border on bigotry (I'm not a religious person, but making light of someone's religion is a dick move). If your aim is to be the Tom Leykis of the draft guru community, I can see why people haven't heard of you in spite of your "superior expertise." Nine times out of ten (and that's lowballing it) anyone who has to tell people that he's a big deal isn't.

    There's another reason why Lewan shouldn't be high on as many boards as he is, but it's a bit more deep than being a primadonna (a quality you just downplayed in the thread about DeSean Jackson - and granted Jackson has proven more than Lewan has, but he's also always been a primadonna): He's a waist-bender. For all his great athleticism at the combine, the guy has mediocre flexibility and ends up leaning on defenders. Throw on that it's not just holding penalties he gets flagged for regularly, it's personal fouls (he's got anger issues and lets others get under his skin way too easily). He's a guy that needs a yoga program (to increase his flexibility) something fierce, but conversely is likely to look at yoga, from his meathead perspective, and being "a chick thing" and refuse to take it seriously.
  29. MtlBoltsFan
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    MtlBoltsFan Jesse Ventura/Howard Stern 2016

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    DeSean Jackson is a talented primadonna......... hanestly get a hold of yourself LBC, you borderline know what you're talking about until you make ridiculous claims just to get attention.

    The problem is that you play it safe with your player analysis and instead of having the balls to call Kouandijo and Carrethers dogshit you cover your *** and take both sides with tons of players.

    Be a man and state your opinion with confidence because you hanestly sound like you are copying and pasting **** from ESPN insider.

    Best regards,

    mtl
  30. MtlBoltsFan
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    MtlBoltsFan Jesse Ventura/Howard Stern 2016

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    LMAO

    I'm sure the guys you regularly converse with are washed up losers like Walter Cherepinsky and that douchebag who runs draftcountdown who wants $1000 a month during April for a 2x2 inch ad space on his mock draft page.

    The folks you talk to have never heard of me because they are losers who don't bet on CFB. I have gone on documented 17-0 ATS nfl runs and have hit +900, +2850 and +2200 moneylines in consecutive years and have a 81% ATS record over the past 7 years Week 1 and 2 of CFB.

    Guys like me actually make $ while your buddies get 5 minutes to stumble over their own words and act like hyperactive clowns on local ESPN radio channels and moderately frequented fan websites.

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