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Rmancil Crystal Ball 2008

Discussion in 'NFL Draft' started by RMANCIL, Jan 4, 2007.

  1. RMANCIL
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    RMANCIL New Member

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    As I stare into my crystal ball it is very clear that the darn thing needs a good cleaning , wow it is cloudy today , you know the draft focus was much clearer in years gone by.

    You know it use to be pretty sharp in years gone by about this time of year when it came to Charger team needs. Now days the darn thing seems to be all over the place but that could be due to the team being so much better across the board.

    Of course the Dielman issue is still unresolved so that clouds things up as well. It does seem to lock in on LB , WR and safety and funny RB keeps popping up yet it comes and it goes so lets try and sift threw all of theses messages and see what the future may hold in store come draft day.

    The word trade keeps popping in and out and the issue with selecting last in the 1st round along with B.A. and impact player. All of that is pretty common draft stock but with the roster depth and the plethora of draft picks it seems that the Chargers are going into waters that the team has never sailed in previously.

    It seems that after the Super Bowl that there is a wide spread interest in RB Michael Turner, it seems that this draft is shallow in good looking top quality RB and Turner fits the bill. It looks like a lot of interest is coming from Green Bay , Houston , Cleveland , Pittsburgh , Atlanta , Philadelphia , Baltimore and two teams that live in New York.

    Now that is a lot of jungle drums , some are faint but other's are much louder but they are all pretty distant . The ball doesn't work as well now as it does after all the F.A. signings go figure.

    But it is a pretty good indicator that teams will look at this draft and rate the RB in it and if the player they like falls into their lap they will be happy if not then the idea of trading becomes a reality especially with teams with several holes in the roster, here is a short list of what appears right now as the best candidates.

    The Giants will need another RB to replace Tiki Barber but right now their fans are not real happy with past trades with S.D. and even though the Giant GM Ernie Accorsi is retiring the new management may be a little reluctant to make any deals with the Chargers as the Giant fans feel that the Chargers got the best end on the Rivers and a world of draft picks for Eli Manning.

    But if they changed their mind it looks like the Giants will be selecting around the 20 slot depending on how they do in the playoffs. It also looks like they may be in the hunt for a new coach as well as a GM. Scott Pioli of the Pats is a leading candidate and he has a history of making draft day trades.

    The cost for slot 20 according to the trade value chart that most N.F.L. teams use is 850 points , the value for Turner if we average out second round value at 425 and add in the Chargers 2nd round and a 3rd round pick 425 + 270 + 116 = 811 we get a formula for a trade that could work.

    The Giants would have a feature RB in Turner and with two number 2 # 52 , 64 and 2# third round picks 84 and 96 it would create a huge buzz for the Giants. The lower round picks would also allow the Giants to land some LB and OL depth /starters while Turner could be the featured back that Manning needs in order to have a chance at succeeding.

    This draft class at RB is slim Adrian Peterson is the best back and he figures to go early . After Peterson you have Marshawn Lynch , Kenny Irons , Michael Bush and Tony Hunt all of whom have question marks and none of them project to be better than Turner. If I am the Giants GM and if Peterson doesn't fall into my lap I think I make the call.

    If A.J. were to get that call and Reggie Nelson S , Lamarr Woodley ILB , Michael Griffin S or Ted Ginn WR is on the board I think I would jump all over it. After all I still have another number 1 at the 32# slot to take either a LB ,S , WR , OL ,DL = B.A.= impact player.

    Plus I should have one or two more number 3# round supplemental picks.

    The Ravens and the Jets are two other teams that may be in the RB hunt , the Jets with Brian Schottenheimer at the offensive controls are rumored to be interested as well. They are at New England in the 1st round of the playoffs and have to be favored for a early exit from the playoffs. The Jets could find themselves with a selection around 21 to 26 in the 1st round need to improve on their run game. They currently have Leon Washington , Derrick Blaylock , Cedric Houston and Kevan Barlow which means they need help at RB in a big way.

    Schottenheimer saw Turner up close for several years and he understands the importance of a strong run game. The Jets are a young team on the upswing but they still have several areas of need including WR , CB , LB could make the trade and fill several additional needs and have a recent history of doing just that with recent draft day trades with Dallas , KC , Phil and a pre draft trade with Atlanta thru Denver that netted them several extra selections in the 2006 draft for DE John Abraham.

    The Ravens who at this point figure to play the Bolts for the A.F.C. title would figure to not offer the Chargers the chance at one of the top talents that they may covet but if the other trades failed to materialize they still could offer a pretty good value for Turner.

    Well the ball is starting to fog up again , it is like that most of the time but hey if yours is working better please I want to here what yours predicts.
  2. sdrocks
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    sdrocks Well-Known Member

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    Just curious, how you came up with 2nd round value for Turner. I think we can get a first round pick straight up for him by offering him the first round tender. Some team will be desparate enough to do it. With AJ drafting our 2nd and 3rd round picks should be pretty good players.
  3. RMANCIL
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    RMANCIL New Member

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    Teams realy value number 1# picks , the fact are that Turner if we don't trade him will be one and done. That being the case why would a team give up a 1st for him?

    When you look at past situations and teams trading for a RB their isn't a very good history of them giving up a 1st.
  4. sdrocks
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    sdrocks Well-Known Member

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    I guess you're right there isn't much of a history. Only one I can think of is Curtis Martin when the Jets gave up a 1st and a 3rd to sign him.

    I just can't see AJ trading him and throwing in a 2nd and 3rd rounder.

    If we did offer him a first round tender and if another team did sign him, would we get the pick this draft or in 2008?
  5. RMANCIL
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    RMANCIL New Member

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    It could go a couple of ways I think

    1) Bolts sign a medium ranked contract and trade him to a team for a 2nd round pick from what I have read I think the Jets may pay that for him now and yes it would be for a pick in 2007 draft.

    2) Some team could try a hostile contract that would include bonuses for games won ( if the team wins 10 or more games for example) that because that team sucks they would not pay that bonus but if the Chargers matched the contract they would pay the bonus another example would be a contract that guarantees Turner to be the highest paid RB on the team.

    In the second case I think it would have a lot to do with Turners agent and Turner and if they would want to sign a contract like that which in effect cheats the Chargers out of the ability to match the contract or to get any trade value for Turner.

    I think it would be possible for Turner to sign a high tender offer and that the Chargers would agree to not match the offer in exchange for some compensation such as a 2nd round pick which would allow Turner a opportunity to play as a starter for another team and still allow the Bolts to receive some value for him and thats what I think will happen.

    If I am Smith I would say to Turner and his agent pick out the two or three teams you think you would like to play from that need a RB and work out your contract with them and we will take the best offer and let you go.

    That would allow both parties to "win win".
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  6. sdrocks
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    sdrocks Well-Known Member

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    I'm thinking Jets or Giants
  7. Boltjolt
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    Boltjolt Well-Known Member

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    Who knows what wil hapen, but i wouldnt count out the Broncos.
    They arent content with both Bells. That would suck to see Turner go there. And it dont have to be a trade. If they offer him a contract we cant match....but it would cost them at least their first rounder. Ill go ahead and say that NO TEAM will pursue him if he gets a 1st and 3rd tender.

    Id still be surprised if we get a first round for him, but id sure take it. That would be great compensation since he was a 5th round pick.

    Id like to see him stay but its inevidable that we will lose him someday and it makes sense to get something for him.

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