Discussion in 'NFL Draft' started by charger1993, Dec 24, 2011.
lets talk draft, who you want
Why? If we have AJ it wont mean much.
I really hope we don't have AJ.
So hypothetically: let's say we fire AJ and hire a reasonable GM....
Cause i believe AJ and Norv are both gone, and talking draft is better than watching this team suck a s s
Not really, the stupid arguing over this highlight reel or that makes me want to puke. However if you like talking about the draft have fun please.
I never care until they are Chargers.
yea i live for the draft, its interesting seeing what some players can bring to the table, i wish we would have pulled a mike ditka and traded our whole draft for Suh
Now that would of been interesting!
I've got OLB at #1 in need, assuming that we're good to go with Gaither next year.
If not, LOT is #1.
yea OLB has moved to my number 1, CB then, ILB in that order
I mean if Dielman and McNeil don't retire were looking at a crazy offensive line of:
McNeil, Dielman, Hardwick, Vasquez, and Gaither..
Looks good to me.., But thats the only thing, that whole left side could be retiring.. I wouldn't go to crazy, Schilling for a 7th round pick looked great at LG and I wouldn't be hesitant to throw him in there next year.. LT will be an issue though, certainly its a need because even if McNeil is back his durability is questionable..
6. Special Teams Man (A good PR and KR, aka Joe Adams or Bobby Rainey)
I thought Schilling was suspect. Granted, it was his first year, and you don't expect a late round draft pick to do well on OL in year 1. So maybe he develops. But Green will win that job over him. Assuming we keep Hardwick (whose contract is up), in which case maybe Green to C.
At any rate, McNeil's condition is serious. We'll need a LOT sooner rather than later if they don't go with Gaither.
I agree, but when he started in Chicago he played very good and didn't allow a sack and he had Peppers on his side..
Hardwick should be signed without a doubt.. if not we don't need Green there, we'll have Mski and Colin Baxter another youngster who can better his play..
I dunno--relying on backups there. We'll need one of McNeil/Dielman/Hardwick back, healthy, and playing well.
Gaither, Green, Hardwick, Vasquez, ? wouldn't be bad. Clary had a poor season, and it's time to replace him as well. All of these replacements are solveable by FA as well as draft. Not necessary to get caught up in AJs way of thinking...
Guys like Mski, Baxter, Schilling I see as backups. In fact, Dski has more experience at LG, LT etc than Schilling.
We need an OLB but I honestly don't see one that I'd risk a pick in the what? 13-17 range we'll pick at? Upshaw isn't that kind of guy. However, there ARE likely to be some damn good OL available there. Since we're assuming that AJ is gone, so will be his preference for chicken over beef.
I think we go BPA & that will quite likely be OL or DB. We can use both. There will be a 'tweener who is as likely to make the switch to 3-4 OLB in the 2nd or 3rd as there is in the 1st this year.
One thing changes player availability in that range big time - Barkley returning.
There isn't an OLB with the upside/ceiling to merit selection in the Top 15 thus far in this class - and with guys like Jarvis Jones going back to school there likely won't be. Only guy I can see with potential to bolster his stock to that level is USC's Nick Perry, but he's really raw (we're talking nearly Aldon Smith raw) and honestly does need another year or so to fill out. That said, he's got the highest ceiling of any Rush-LB. The other ceiling guys are Irvin, Jenkins, and Paige-Moss (I wouldn't touch him till the 4th or later, though), whereas this class is loaded with a good amount of high-floor/lower-ceiling guys whose performances come as a product of more effort than athleticism (and while we'd love to see that kind of guy pay off and turn into a superstar, more often than not as Jason Pierre-Paul is showing us this season, it's the uber-athlete guys that have exceedingly better chances in that aim) - Curry, Mercilus (assuming he declares, but he should), Alexander, Ronnell Lewis.
Only guy I'd touch anywhere about the 27-32 range would be Perry... and maybe Upshaw - but I think ultimately with a season's worth of quality/proper coaching and development there really shouldn't be that big of a difference between a guy like Jenkins/Irvin and a guy like Upshaw; I'm also hearing that pro scouts aren't as high on Upshaw as internet pundits are.
Also, FCBolt, we tried Green at center and he couldn't take to it at the pro level, which was why he's been seeing his snaps exclusively at guard and why we were so pressed to re-sign Mruczkowski (because we literally had no backup center and didn't have the luxury in the last draft of using a pick on one). Green's been unable to snap the ball and fire up into his stance quick enough at this level - if you watch him in games he actually cheats a bit out of his stance to begin with and rarely starts from a full 3-points. He should (and is) looked at purely as a guard.
I'd seriously think of drafting Mark Barron in the first round if there are no better OL available and then taking an OLB like Curry or Irvin in the second round. To be honest I'm wondering seriously if Barnes isn't ready to be a starter. At 15 I doubt we can get a top 3 tackle (obviously not Kahlil but also Martin/Reiff) and unless Kirkpatrick falls to us, I don't see a CB worthy of that pick. I'm inclined to agree that neither Upshaw nor Perry nor Jenkins are worth first rounders.
Perry's got the upside that he's worth a 1st round pick. A Top 15 pick? I'd have trouble justifying that, but I also try to keep a mindset of about a 3-4 slot flexibility because if you truly want a specific prospect over any other prospect available at his position then there's the value that makes up for the perceived "loss" on the pick value chart - that's justifiable. I'll say this, unless Bruce Irvin, Ronnell Lewis, Sammy Brown (maybe), or Brandon Jenkins show something huge at the combine in terms of beasting the living hell out of the broad jump, 3-cone, and vertical (i.e. showcasing elite burst), Perry's go the best chance of any rush LB in this class to be great. That in itself is worth a 1st round pick - not necessarily a high one (and how you define "high" is really subjective in this instance), but he does provide you with the ceiling and upside you typically want to get (and can only get) in the 1st.
I also won't speak to whether one of the tackles will fall or not. Honestly, I'm more confident that one of them would/will fall to our draft position than I am, for them moment, that we'd draft an RT in the 1st (and with a top 20 pick) unless we end up at draft time without either McNeill (retirement) or Gaither (simply couldn't re-sign... or whatever) on the roster.
Reiff is looking more and more like a purer RT than LT. Does that fit our need better (probably)? Yes. But see the above. Teams typically aren't falling over themselves to draft RT's in the 1st round - though that's something that is starting to trend a bit more given how much of a passing league this is becoming.
I think ultimately it's going to come down to how the other premium positions grade out. We're going into a draft that's pretty devoid of top-end pure pass-rushers, so that's going to leave the door open for other premium positions - along with the teams that just draft for pure need (which are fewer and fewer these days). We're still likely to see a minimum of 3 QB's drafted in the Top 15-20 picks (it's just a given, particularly now that the top picks don't tie to as much guaranteed money as they did before and this is very much a QB-driven league) - Luck, Griffin (if he declares), and probably someone along the lines of Ryan Tannehill or Landry Jones (if Jones has a really great Insight Bowl he'll probably declare). We're likely looking at another 2009 in that respect - QB at #1, next QB somewhere between picks #4-7, and then the third one somewhere around pick #15-17 (either via team picking naturally late in the order like KC or Seattle, or trading back into the 1st - likely with the use of a future 1st round pick).
Whoever the top center is will likely go in the Top 15, with maybe a 1 or 2 pick allowance for standard deviation - fact is it's happened in the past 2 seasons regardless of whether the prospect in question was an elite center or not; they're just a position that's becoming more and more in demand because of the large amount of former top centers that are hitting retirement. Claiborne's a lock to go Top 10 minimum. Kirkpatrick should go in the Top 20 minimum (just a matter of whether he's valued more by teams as a CB or a S). Dennard could make a late off-season push into the Top 20; the same case could be made for Janoris Jenkins who has the talent but he also has a rap sheet a mile long that he's going to have difficulty explaining away in interviews. Some 4-3 team is going to bite on Coples' measurables and production likely in the Top 15 (top 20 at worst - I can't see him going any lower than Adrian Claiborne did last year). Devon Still has the right combination of production, measurables, and program pedigree to likely push himself into being the first DT selected (likely Top 20 minimum) and has the best chance among DT prospects of having a JJ Watt like combine. And I'm still pretty confident that some 3-4 team is going to eye him as a potential NT prospect (call it a hunch... he's something of a Brandon Mebane clone).
Finally you've got the WR's which is likely what will really dictate (along with CB's) what positions fall the furthest. Blackmon has the production, has the program pedigree, and should workout well enough to merit a Top 5 selection (Top 10 at absolute worst). Ultimately some team will look past Michael Floyd's arrest record in favor of his upside - it always seems to happen with WR's and the guy apparently interviews extremely well - I'd say he's a Top 20 lock and a possible candidate to break into the Top 10. And the real wild card is Alshon Jeffery - I'm confident he'll declare - I'm not particularly fond of him as a prospect, but he's got the kind of size, potential speed, and is proven match-up nightmare that it only takes one team to think he's another Plaxico to drop a Top 15 pick on him. This is of course not even considering RB's where there's a likelihood that at least one goes in the Top 12 with the possibility of 2 within the Top 15-20 (Ingram and Lamar Miller - who both have the program pedigree and production as well as the notoriety to guarantee mid-to-high 1st round stock).
That's a likely 15-17 total prospects while only counting Kalil at OT, which fills out the Top 20 if we throw in that DeCastro likely goes Top 15 as well, one of Zach Brown or Luke Kuechly stand a better than fair chance of breaking into the Top 20, and then Martin and Reiff (plus wildcards that some team could take an off-the-beaten-path shine to like Cordy Glenn, Nick Perry, or Upshaw).
Isn't Hardwick a FA now too?. I could see Green winning the center spot. The rest of the O line is up for grabs. I'd love to see big Mc and Dielman back but we will be lucky to see of them. We have to be looking at FA for O line help. Dombo made a fool of himself this year and is likely gone I reckon. I wasn't taken with Schilling dunno what all the fuss is about ref him. On defense we need some personality in the form of scary people. We need a wrecking ball OLB (is there another V Miller coming?), we need a corner who can cover somebody and a SS that can jump and run. I've mixed feelings about VJ dunno is he the real star we all thought he could be. He can't seem to dominate every game the way he should. Dunno if Sperry can become anything it is not like Norv ever wanted to throw his way.
If we really want to do good in the Draft we have to get rid of VJ, via trade. VJ is a great player but hes to much drama, and sperry is nomore than a filler TE
I covered it in another topic, we tried Green at center and he failed miserably despite playing the position in college. He hasn't shown to be able to snap the ball and get up into his stance quick enough to block effectively without being put back flat on his butt. If you watch closely, he actually tends to cheat his stance a little bit when lined up at left guard (where he's up against quicker UT's and not slower NT's on the right side) and operates out of a two-point stance with his elbow resting on his knee/thigh versus a traditional 3-point stance typically utilized by interior linemen; it's more of a typically OT's stance.
There is no Von Miller in this draft. The closest thing is UNC's Zach Brown who is considerably more undersized than Miller was, struggles terribly to shed blocks, and is a 4-3 WILL LB without the potential to be anything else in the pros.
We won't be getting rid of both Dombrowski and Clary in the same offseason most likely - and both will cost roughly the exact same to keep rostered for 2012 now that the frontloaded portion of Clary's extension has been paid out. And Sperry can't block - he tried putting on the bulk but it still didn't help, he's just physically limited and he's not that dynamic of a receiver to merit keeping if he can't provide as a blocker. This year's TE class is top-heavy and thins out really quickly afterwards. One good run on TE's and the pool will be drained. I'm holding out hope for a guy like Ladarius Green to last until the 4th round or so, but given the success that guys like Jimmy Graham and Gronkowski (though Gronk is much more of an all-around TE) are having this season, athletic receiving TE's are going to be trending (for lack of a better word) in this next draft.
If we're going to be refitting our front office we need to get it done sooner rather than later because we need to give them as much time to sit down and negotiate with Hardwick before the official start of business of 2012 (up until that point we still have access to 2011's salary cap and thus any bonus money we would give him could be applied to the ending season's cap versus having to be spread over the upcoming seasons'). Also, it frees up the franchise tag for either VJ or Garay. This is a draft class devoid of true #1 WR prospects (outside of say Justin Blackmon - who will go Top 5, Michael Floyd - who will go Top 20, and Alshon Jeffery - who has a pretty substantial bust potential), so the demand for VJ could be higher than it's normally been, but that's a double-edged sword... we'd be trading him away in a year where we'd have a significantly lesser chance of acquiring a relatively comparable replacement. It's less of a concern if we ditch the Coryell (not saying it should be done, but if we ran more of a West Coast Offense it fits to Rivers' strengths and doesn't force us into having to have that big, large-framed, AND fast downfield threat but rather guys with good hands who excel at finding holes in zones and gain separation through crisp route-running). Given the potential for turnover on our OL though, I'd almost consider - in a dire situation - having to tag Hardwick over VJ because Rivers' lack of mobility can be compensated for by his good feel for the pocket and ability to step up to buy time... if the interior line isn't up to snuff, as we saw when we went through 3 centers in one season, he's a sitting duck and WILL get killed.
I'd slap the franchise tag on Gates.. he's a FA after this year and nobody knows about his durability is with that foot injury.. he doesn't look bad but if he has to miss another 6 games next year or even more theres no point in risking a long term contract for him given the injury will get worse with age.. so.. a lot of questions going into this off season and we need a makeover, but at the same time the continuity is there, so I want to re-sign 80 % of this roster, guys like Sperry, Sanders, Crayton, Hester, Goodman, Moll, Bird, Diggs, Brown, English, Laboy, Oliver, and Novak can all walk.. do what you have to cut/don't resign/trade..
That's right--forgot that he'd bombed out at C this year.
So it's either re-sign Hardwick, find a FA from another team at C, or (unlikely) draft a pro-ready C--I've been calling for drafting a C for 3 years now, but AJ never takes my calls. Now we have a ton of other needs...
M-ski is a backup C but I wouldn't want him #1 on the depth chart. Nor Baxter.
Ski's a better center than he is a guard actually. He's pretty much the fail safe if Hardwick does hang them up; I'd say if Hardwick does retire Ski will get a Clary-esque deal - frontloaded and easy to get out of on the back-end if/when a viable replacement is on the roster. He's a stop-gap, but he's as quality a stop-gap as say Volek is (he's not going to beast for you like your starter would, but he's also not going to be a liability that will cost you wins in tight games).
I've said it in other threads though, if Hardwick does opt for retirement or even hints that he's only got a few years left, and Peter Konz declares... I'd have no issue sinking a Top 15-20 pick in him. Centers come at a higher premium (the top center in the draft has been drafted closer to 15th overall than 20th overall the past couple years; and it's been steadily increasing year by year), Konz is a quality prospect who at worst could move to guard and play well there (he's absolutely sick at pulling) until time comes to succeed Hardwick, and he would be a justifiable BPA while still feeling a need.
Err... Gates signed a 5-year extension in 2010. He's not a FA until 2015.
I'd hate to go into a year with M-ski as a starter. I like the idea of going C round 1. Don't publisize it too much though, cause then AJ will never do it.
Oh really? I totally had no clue lol.. well nevermind then.. but I'd hate to slap the tag on VJ again, we have to sign the man look what Rivers does when he has Floyd, VJ, and Gates on the field, if we had all three of them healthy and not such a banged up o-line we would of had atleast 9 wins by now..
Vincent Brown will evolve to a dynamic slot receiver, hoping he will have a Victor Cruz type year next year, I might be overly optimistic and then we also need a big receiver to snap up in the draft like a Juron Criner, Marvin McNutt, Tommy Streeter, Conner Vernon, or even a Demarlo Belcher.. all guys 6-2 and up, have quickness and height and easily red zone targets for Rivers.. if Dwight Jones is still around I'd snap him up immediately..
But we do need a tight end as well, we need an Aaron Hernandez in this draft.. Guy who is big, strong, and quick so if Gates goes down we have somebody to step up not just McMichael and Sperry.. weak receiving options..
I really don't see us needing another "big" receiver unless we lose VJ. We have plenty of "big" receivers. What we lack is someone who can take short stuff and turn it into larger plays via YAC abilities. Problem is, this draft isn't really loaded with many speed guys. There are a few guys that really intrigue me like Ty Hilton out of FIU, but if they workout well at the combine they're going to press themselves into 2nd round consideration for teams that are more WR-needy than we are. But this draft is loaded with "big" receivers that don't have great speed, so much so that there's really no point in investing an early pick in one unless it's as a BPA like Michael Floyd or (fat chance) Justin Blackmon - Alshon Jeffery is overrated (at least in the respect that I see people mocking him in the Top 5-10; he's a Top 20 prospect but not Top 10). There are going to be late rounders or UDFA with most of the same upside. And yes, this is actually a hard thing for me to accept too because I ride Nick Toon's jock harder than most - but he's not so "standout" that he comes across as a guy that the Chargers "have to have" as early into the process as he'll probably go (2nd-3rd round).
And if VJ doesn't get an extension, the only way he doesn't get the tag again is if it's deemed a necessity to keep Hardwick (or to a lesser extent possibly Garay depending on how a new coaching/FO staff grades out our NT situation). VJ'll get the tag because, at absolute worst he stands the most to bring back a return in trade (the number of guys with #1 WR and legit deep-threat potential in this draft are extremely limited - which boosts VJ's stock). I'm on the fence over whether we should bend over backwards to re-sign him. The guy still tries to basket-catch way too many balls for my liking, but it's difficult to detract from his ability to take over a game - and he's the sort of player that A) Coaches will be drawn to want to work with and B) Could under the right scheming circumstances break out even more than he has already in the past.
As to TE... I hate just arbitrarily saying we need a clone of "Player A" that's already in the pro's, because it assumes that said player would automatically be as successful in our system as he would be in the one he's in. Not saying that Hernandez isn't talented, but the Pats offensive system is designed to make TE's look good and in fact to run through the TE's quite a bit - so you're going to see a massive skewing in favor of the TE stats. You've got to remember that this is the same offensive scheme that made Christian Fauria and Daniel Coats look like better-than-average receivers. If you were to say we need a Gronkowski clone, I wouldn't be able to disagree because aside from having spinal stenosis himself (just a less severe narrowing than McNiell has), Gronkowski is the ideal prototype TE in the mold of Jason Witten or Tony Gonzales.
If we draft a TE it needs to be someone that is capable of blocking, because if we're looking at this in the sense that we need someone who can/will eventually have to injury-fill for Gates with a little regularity in the later part of his contract, we can't afford to be telegraphing what's a run-play and what's a pass-play simply based off of which TE we have in. This TE class is top-heavy and falls off QUICK - i.e. there isn't a ton of depth to it. I personally don't think Tyler Eiffert declares (he's a 2nd-3rd round pick if he does, with the potential to push for late 1st round status depending on how he and Stoneburner do going head to head next season). Coby Fleener has a higher floor than Dwayne Allen, but Dwayne Allen has a higher ceiling and those are the only guys I'd take through the first 2 days (first 3 rounds). I'm not as high on Orson Charles as some folks are. Not that he's bad, he's just got limited upside; he's basically Ed Dickson who is a little more polished in terms of where his blocking is at as a prospect than Dickson was but they have almost identical ceilings. Ladarius Green is a guy I like as someone who could make impact as a receiving mismatch option early on, but his blocking won't improve till he fills his frame out more because he just doesn't have the strength to do much more than chip and chop-block at this point - he doesn't have the strength to drive-block. And then there are just trainwrecks waiting to happen like Michael Egnew (go ahead, I can wait... feel free to try and find me the last TE to come out of Gary Pinkel's spread offense at Mizzou that was actually a productive pro) who is an oversized WR, with closer to TE speed than WR speed, and to top it off he's really not all that clean of a route runner. And there really aren't a heck of a lot of other guys worth mention. Maybe David Paulson from Oregon finds a niche in the league as an H-Back, but I'm really on the fence with regard to his pro prospects - and I'm an Oregon fan. Personally, I favor waiting until the 6th-7th or UDFA and taking a flier on a former Washington prospect, who finished his career at Montana, in Kavario Middleton. He's not particularly fast, but he can create mismatches in terms of being a size/reach issue for LB's and safeties to cover, and his vertical is beastly which gives him strong prospects as a red-zone target.
Pretty much agree with this...
At WR, i really like Joe Adams if we can get him in the 3rd, or like you said, i'd be REALLY happy if we were able to steal Hilton in the 3rd. Probably the best return men and speed receivers in the draft.
Another guy that i really like if he declares, is Aaron Dobson from Marshal. Freakish speed for a 6'3" 205 lb guy, and has just absolutely INSANE hands (go ahead and try and look his name up on youtube. Best catch i've ever seen in my life. He's really raw though, but match him with the best WR coach in the NFL in Joiner, and He's gonna be a MONSTER.
I'm a fan of Middleton as a later round guy. But one thing i'm wondering is what do you think about going after a guy like Martellus Bennett from Dallas? Perfect compliment to Gates, and gives us some time to wait out a project like Middleton or Green. He's a very good blocker, and, although he isn't really a guy who will stretch the field, he's really athletic and has good hands to be a short yard option and has that size that he can just box guys out with. He's also only 24 or something like that, so he'll be with us for a long time. I guess he was actually born in SD too, which may help a bit...
Yeah I like Martellus Bennett as well but he is a Texas native so I do not know if he will be willing to move here, but its worth the shot I don't think however Dallas will offer him what he wants, but he does have talent and could compliment Gates very nicely which will not be a need in the draft until next year where the pool of Tight Ends will be more broad and stronger I believe..
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