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updated mock draft

Discussion in 'NFL Draft' started by charger1993, Dec 12, 2011.

  1. charger1993

    charger1993 bad motherfucker

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    This is if we keep the 3-4
    1. Dre Kirkpatrick CB Alabama
    2. Brandon Lindsey OLB Pittsburg
    3. Andre Branch DE Clemson
    4. Michael Egnew TE Missouri
    5. Jarius Wright WR Arkansas
    6.Trumaine Johnson, montana
    7. Phillip Welch K Wisconsin

    if we go to a 4-3
    1. Quentin Couples De North Carolina
    2. Fletcher Cox DT Mississippi state
    3. Cliff Harris CB Oregon
    4.Emmanuel Acho ILB Texas
    5. Trenton Robinson FS/SS Michigan State
    6.Gerrell Robinson WR Arizona State
    7. Kyle Wilber, OLB Wake forest
     
  2. SuperCharger92

    SuperCharger92 BoltTalker

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    Yeah man I keep changing mine too lol.. Well if Norv is out most likely he is.. we'll prob get a whole new coaching staff, so we will probably go with the 4-3..

    1. Coples - DE - North Carolina
    2. Lewis - LB - Oklahoma
    3. Armstrong - SS - Miami
    4. Egnew - TE - Mizz (I really hope this doesn't turn out to be a Scott Chandler)
    5. Ryan - OT - UConn
    6. Jones - WR - Cal
    7. Barnes - NT - Georgie Tech
     
  3. The LBC

    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    I fail to see how a new coaching staff automatically or even makes us more "probable" to switch to a 4-3 when we're built to run a 3-4, but I digress...

    Kirkpatrick in the 1st is straight value if you can get him. I think his ceiling is higher at Safety than at CB, but the guy is capable of starting at either position in the pros.

    Lindsey in the 2nd is another I'm taking a real shine to as he's got good burst but he isn't just a pure speed rusher who looks like he'll struggle initially against the run (Lindsey's got good upper body strength right now).

    Drafting Lindsey though makes taking Branch somewhat redundant. I'd sooner sink that 3rd round pick into someone the likes of Iowa's Markus Zusevics (versatile OL with good program pedigree that can play 4 OL positions including RT), Auburn's Brandon Mosley, or BYU's Matt Reynolds (assuming his shoulder-injury history checks out).

    As to Egnew... he is Scott Chandler... just like every other TE prospect that Mizzou has produced under Gary Pinkel. Their system simply doesn't emphasize TE blocking at all so the guys are so raw in that department they're effectively just larger, slightly slower WR's. I'd much rather someone like Ladarius Green who may need the polish on his blocking but at least has the basics already and IMO has better hands than Egnew. Otherwise, while I can appreciate that a reserve TE is a need the mid-round value in this draft isn't that great and I'd sooner sit until the 6th or 7th and take a flier on someone like Brad Herman out of Iowa (better program pedigree for TE's - they've had one drafted in every year for the past decade I'm pretty sure) or pray to God that someone like Kavario Middleton (Montana, formerly of Washington) runs a little faster than he's projected to (he's a long strider, so a tenth of a second is forgivable for a TE).
     
  4. SuperCharger92

    SuperCharger92 BoltTalker

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    I agree were a fit to run the 3-4 but who runs that successful these days?

    4-3 is the way to go.. Shaun Phillips played the 4-3 in college, I'm pretty sure Liuget did although I might be wrong and hey maybe even Larry English could fit the 4-3 (highly doubt it though, but worth a try)..

    Butler, Spikes, Mouton or a solid free agent/draft player at the other LB position and your looking at a pretty damn good front seven with Coples/Castillo/English, Garay, Liuget, and Phillips..

    thats just my opinion though, what do you think about Rodriguez out of Temple? I like Dunsmore and Lutzenkirchen and I also like Eifert, Charles, and Bryan as well at TE..
     
  5. The LBC

    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    Plenty of folks run it successfully these days. There are actually far more highly effective 3-4's than there are 4-3's (depending on how you classify the hybrids like Baltimore and Seattle). And the most effective (non-hybrid) 4-3's in the league right now are productive because they have ultra-athletic pass-rushers lined up at 3 of the 4 positions. The closest thing we have to an ultra athletic pass-rusher on this team is Phillips and maybe Martin; the problem is one's far more the pass-rusher and the other's far more the ultra-athletic, while neither is specifically both at the same time.

    Also if we switched to a 4-3, Garay is as good as gone. NT isn't as key a position in the 4-3 as it is in the 3-4 so there would be no way of justifying paying him the kind of money he'll be seeking.

    As to the TE's, juniors rarely declare unless they've been given a 1st or 2nd round grade. So I don't expect Lutzenkirchen to come out until 2013; the only juniors besides the guys like Dwayne Allen and Orson Charles and Eifert (he's at least submitted to the committee for a grade), that I could see possibly coming out is Stoneburner, but I figure he sits tight (particularly if Eifert declares) and lets Meyer's system feed him the ball a ton en route to solidified 1st round status in 2013.

    FB's are becoming like traditional TE's in college football these days - a dying breed. I like Drake Dunsmore, wouldn't argue with spending a 7th on him (why anyone would spend more than that on a FB is beyond me though - sorry to all the John Conner fans). But ultimately, I think the route that a number of run-happy teams are finding success with in fielding FB's is either converting TE's (like Dallas did with John Phillips at one point) or better yet, converting an LB who simply doesn't have the lateral agility to play the position as a pro (similar to what Minnesota did with Ryan D'Imperio).
     
  6. mettadown

    mettadown BoltTalker

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    I like Whitney Mercilus from Illinois, he can be a game wrecker, he finished with the most sacks and most forced fumbles in the country. He's 6'4 265 pounds so can play olb in the 3-4, has fluid enough hips to cover though he's really a pass rusher, but he's also big enough to play 4-3 end if we end up switching, at the moment he's a late round pick but if he blows up the combine he could go high as 13 to Tennessee. At the moment he's a 25-30 pick who will almost certainly move around as all pass rushers do (Von Miller was roughly projected to go at 16-20 this time last year).
     
  7. The LBC

    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    Mercilus won't last past the 3rd round at the absolute latest, probably will go in the 2nd at minimum because of A) The scarcity of actual legit 4-3 RDE's in this draft (he's not a pure RDE, but that doesn't mean someone won't think that he can't play it - and he can be one heck of an LDE, it's just not as coveted a position) and B) You don't lead the FBS in two major defensive statistical categories like sacks and strips and last to the late rounds unless you've got major injury/character concerns which Mercilus does not.

    I like him a lot - though I'm not as sold on the fluidity of his hips as you are - but again, this is a guy who is an effort-rusher, not a burst-rusher (i.e. he's not producing what he's producing because of immense athletic ability - he's actually a pretty average athlete). Among the effort-rushers I have him on my list as 3b to Ronnell Lewis' 3a (with Upshaw and Curry ahead of him), and closely followed by Houston's Sammy Brown.
     
  8. mettadown

    mettadown BoltTalker

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    Your right he's not exactly Jason Pierre Paul out there but I think that the ability to fight through contact is just as important, if not more than burst around the edge. Some speed rushers are able to beat college tackles, but they’re not able to beat the left tackles of the NFL who have the athleticism to meet them at the corner. Also they tend to be better in run support and have more moves in their aresnal so are less likely to bust. I think he'd be a great fit to rotate and compliment Antwaan Barnes' pure pass rush opposite Shaun Phillips since he's more complete, a (very) poor man's Justin Tuck. Plus how awesome is his name, who doesn't want their pass rusher to be Merciless?
     
  9. The LBC

    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    There's a HUGE difference between "burst" and being a "speed-rusher". Just because a guy is qualifies as the later doesn't mean he has the former. Burst is more about strength AND speed combined than just pure speed. The reason why so many speed rushers struggle against athletic NFL LOT's isn't as much because of the athleticism of the tackles - it factors in there but not as much as... - it's much more because of the fact that pro tackles have longer arm length and because a large amount of collegiate speed rushers do what they do by going around their blocker rather than actually defeating him with burst off the line, handwork, and pass-rushing moves.

    And saying Mercilus is "not exactly" JPP is akin to saying Antwan Barnes is "not exactly" Terrell Suggs. The athleticism and explosion off the line is simply not there. And without those, I simply cannot grade him as a 1st round prospect AS A RUSH LB. As a 4-3 DE, yeah, I could see a team sinking a bottom 1/3 1st rounder into him, but he still doesn't have the explosion most teams look for from their RDE. Even the comparison to Tuck is off because Tuck is a premier athlete. Mercilus compares more favorably to guys like Anthony Spencer, to a lesser extent Robert Ayers, and from what I can see at the moment (that could change when I see his actual workouts) doesn't have the ceiling as an OLB to reach being even another Shaun Phillips (SP95 has, and had as a prospect, a better first-step than Mercilus has). You simply don't draft guys with that limited of an upside in the 1st round.
     
  10. mettadown

    mettadown BoltTalker

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    Obviously we have different opinons on burst, I call what you described (strength + speed) as explosion. I describe burst as that 1st step, ability to get into the back field. I think he's more athletic than you give him credit.

    Suggs has 13 sacks with much more talent around him compared to Barnes' 11 sacks with virtually nothing around him, which I guess is a tick in the box for Liguet. So if we get him I'll be quite happy if Mercilus is as comparable to JPP as Barnes is to Suggs.
     
  11. The LBC

    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    And I question how much tape you've actually watched on Mercilus if you think he has a good first step. He doesn't.

    Look, I get that folks want to use sacks as the be-all, end-all of determining the quality of a prospect, but it simply doesn't work that way. A lot of folks want to use INT's as a similar gauge for DB's which is, honestly, even more ridiculous. My point with regard to Mercilus is that, if we use your terminology, great explosion makes up for lack of great "burst". Thing is, I don't see either in Mercilus. He's a technician - nothing wrong with that, but it takes more than just great technique to be a playmaker in today's NFL, which is why you see guys whose athletic ability drastically outweighs their technical ability producing where the technicians with average athletic ability do. Look across the league at the 3-4 OLB's who you would consider are "safe" in their jobs, in that their respective team wouldn't be open to replacing them if an upgrade were available... nearly every last one of them has either a great first step or elite level explosion to compensate for a less-than-desired first step.

    If we're selecting a 1st round OLB we damn well better be getting a guy with the ceiling and floor to be an every down player nearly out the gate. Justifying it as getting a guy to rotate with Barnes is counter-productive, Barnes' strength is against the pass whereas he struggles against the run. So we're supposed to get a guy who is going to rotate in on run downs for Barnes and come out on passing downs (and even if that were the case that guy is not Mercilus as his gap-discipline is horrendous and he over-pursues something fierce). And if we're going to compare Barnes to Suggs then run defense sure as heck needs to be brought into the discussion (as well as pass defense) as Suggs blows him out of the water in both regards.

    I can go back and dig up some of my posts from last years draft because the numbers don't lie. Far, far more of the successful 3-4 rush LB's drafted in the past year have met or exceeded a minimum benchmark in terms of explosion which, based off what I've seen from the tape so far, I'm not completely confident that Mercilus has - and I would have to be before I could justify spending anything more than a 2nd round pick on him.
     
  12. mettadown

    mettadown BoltTalker

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    Yeah you win, I think Mercilus is a good player who I would love to see on the team.
     
  13. charger1993

    charger1993 bad motherfucker

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    we already got one Illinois player, i can pass on him
     

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