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Which Safety Will It Be? Read on...

Discussion in 'NFL Draft' started by MtlBoltsFan, Apr 27, 2007.

  1. MtlBoltsFan
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    MtlBoltsFan Jesse Ventura/Howard Stern 2016

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    Ok guys we know we are going to get a safety on the first day. I will break down the probability of drafting those within the elite and second-tier range....

    LaRon Landry (1%): AJ doesn't like trading up for players because the person who initiates contact does not have the upper hand in trade negotiations. We'll give Landry a 1% shot at being a Charger as there is always a remote possibility.

    Michael Griffin (29%): If Griffin is on the board we WILL take him, but he deserves to go a bit earlier than 30 overall. The good news is that there are four safeties with 1st round talent in this draft and it makes sense to think that one of those four will be available at 30 overall, however, safeties have been in high demand in recent years and teams are starting to realize how important of a position it is.

    Brandon Meriweather (1%): As far as I know, Meriweather has not been contacted by San Diego at all. Again, we'll give him 1% as there is always a small chance but I really doubt it.

    Reggie Nelson (14%): Reggie Nelson will not be available at 30 overall. If, however, he does make it past the mid 1st round, and if a trading partner is found, AJ might in fact pull the trigger.

    So there are our first-tier safeties. According to my estimations we have a 45% chance of drafting a first-tier safety. On to the second-tier safeties..

    Eric Weddle (18%): AJ likes athletic players who are leaders, who look good on film and who have the stats to back it up. If we cannot hit that 45% chance of landing a first-tier safety, Weddle is a decent possibility at 62 overall.

    Aaron Rouse (0%): Some will argue that Rouse is a safety... I have seen Rouse get burned by receivers who are walk ons who run 4.7 40 yard dashes. He is a linebacker at the next level. No chance we draft him to play safety.

    Sabby Piscitelli (7%): I really don't think AJ is interested in him as much as this next guy...

    John Wendling (24%): AJ has met up with this guy numerous times and it seems like he is the #1 second-tier option for the Chargers. Should be available at 62 and his size-speed combination warrants a very late 2nd round selection.

    Josh Gattis (6%): Gattis would be an option if for some reason we are unable to select anyone that we are targeting and would be targeted with the 93 selection.

    To sum it up:

    Michael Griffin (29%)
    John Wendling (24%)
    Eric Weddle (18%)
    Reggie Nelson (14%)
    Sabby Piscitelli (7%)
    Josh Gattis (6%)
    LaRon Landry (1%)
    Brandon Meriweather (1%)

    45% chance of drafting a first-tier safety
    55% chance of drafting a second-tier safety
  2. sdchrger
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    sdchrger Well-Known Member

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    Good analysis MTL. :tup:

    Adam Schein just said on Sirius that he thinks that if the Packers could get Turner for the 16th pick that they should do it in a second (he also said that it might take more to get Turner).

    With the 16th pick all safeties come into play. We could trade up for Landry or see who's available when we pick.

    With Marshawn Lynch dropping I think that the Turner sweepstakes are heating up. :abq2: :abq1: :abq2:
  3. MtlBoltsFan
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    MtlBoltsFan Jesse Ventura/Howard Stern 2016

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    And guys I really think that if the draft plays out as I predict, Wendling will be the pick in the second round. This is a guy who was running 4.38 and jumping 41 inches earlier in his college career. With the added bulk he can no longer do this but he has retained much of his athleticism and his size/speed combination is filthy. I really think Wendling will be the guy. AJ said and always says "we will take the best ATHLETE available" and Wendling is flying under the radar. I think there is a slightly better chance that Griffin falls but if Griffin is not there, Wendling will be our pick in the second round. This has 1st round implications as well. If AJ is confident Wendling will be there at the end of the 2nd, look for AJ to go BPA among WR, DE/OLB and OT in the 1st round. Given the talent at WR we may just find a sick player still on the board at 30.
  4. sdrocks
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    sdrocks Well-Known Member

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    I heard that too but I'm hoping its a smokescreen. I'd be really happy with Merriweather at #30.
  5. MtlBoltsFan
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    MtlBoltsFan Jesse Ventura/Howard Stern 2016

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    Fuc the UT comin' straight out the underground
    My buddy leisure got it bad 'cause Forrest is down
    And EC's gone so the other mods think
    They have the authority to kill a minority
  6. Trumpet_Man
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    Trumpet_Man New Member

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    You dudes ain't learned your lessons it appears.

    Pendejos. :icon_twisted:
  7. MtlBoltsFan
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    MtlBoltsFan Jesse Ventura/Howard Stern 2016

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    <object width="425" height="350"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/B-TToJwQwXg"></param><param name="wmode" value="transparent"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/B-TToJwQwXg" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" width="425" height="350"></embed></object>

    PS: If you are under 18 or get easily offended do not click the play button.
  8. MtlBoltsFan
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    MtlBoltsFan Jesse Ventura/Howard Stern 2016

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    I mean hay that's ultimately the reason why I started a feud over there because people were picking on me and the mods would let it fly. Imagine having 20 different posters all like boltsbbound criticizing everything you say without posting their own opinions... that's what happened and the mods just let it pass and called ME out for defending myself. Some guy called me a '****ing idiot' for liking Jon Scott over Winston Justice... last I checked Scott played a couple games and even shut down Aaron Kampman while Justice has done **** in the NFL.

    Anyway I am done with this and sdc and leisure I encourage you to get along there is no reason to fight if sdc and I can get along and leisure and I can get along then sdc and leisure can get along.
  9. Shamrock
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    Shamrock New Member

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