You don't think that the odds of finding quality players decrease as one moves farther from the top? You think the bust to star rate is between 2:1 and 3:1 in the top 5? Really? There is certainly a level of uncertainty present in the NFL draft. However, by choosing before other teams, you reduce your uncertainty to what you've been able to ascertain about all of the players available, instead of about the players left over. A higher draft slot also provides the advantage of being able to trade down and being able to attempt to hit a star more times by having additional picks.