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2009 Compensatory - 3rd rounders ???

Discussion in 'Chargers Fan Forum' started by Shamrock, Mar 3, 2008.

  1. Shamrock

    Shamrock New Member

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    Unless I've missed someone, these are the top deals so far .... ...

    Calvin Pace - six-year, $42 million contract - includes a signing bonus of $20 million and $22 million in total guarantees. Avg: $7 mill/yr

    OG Alan Faneca - five-year, $40 million contract, with $21 million in guaranteed money Avg: $8 mill/yr

    CB Asante Samuel - Six-Year, $57 Million Contract, $20 Million guaranteed Avg: $9.5 mill/yr

    DE Justin Smith - six-year, $45 million deal - $20 million dollars in guaranteed money Avg: $7.5 mill/yr

    WR Bernard Berrian - $42 million for six years, including $16 million in guarantees Avg: $7 mill/yr

    S Gibril Wilson - six-year, $39 million contract. The deal includes $16 million guaranteed Avg: $6.5 mill/yr

    C Jeff Faine six-year, $37.5 million contract, including $15 million guaranteed. Avg $6.25 mill/yr

    RB Michael Turner - six-year, $34.5 million contract with $15 million guaranteed Avg: $5.75 mill/yr

    CB Drayton Florence signed for a 6 year, $36 million contract with nearly $13 million of guaranteed money. Avg: $6 mill/yr

    Antwan Odom to a five-year, $29.5 million contract - $11.5 million in guaranteed money Avg: $5.9 mill/yr

    S Madieu Williams - six-year, $33 million contract including slightly less than $13 million guaranteed. Avg: $5.5 mill/yr

    WR Donte Stallworth - $35 million for 7 years, with $10 million guaranteed. Avg: $5 mill/yr

    WR Jerry Porter - 6 year $30 million dollar contract with $10 million in guaranteed money. Avg: $5 mill/yr

    OG Justin Smiley - five-year contract worth $25 million, including a $9 million signing bonus Avg: $5 mill/yr

    Damien Woody -, $25.5 million contract 5 year -$11 million in guaranteed money Avg: $5.1 mill/yr

    OG Jacob Bell - 6 year $36 million contract - includes a $7 million signing bonus and $13 million in guaranteed money.



    Rankings

    By contract average

    1 - CB A. Samuel - $9.5 mill
    2 - OG A. Faneca - $8 mill
    3 - DE J. Smith - $7.5 mill
    4 - LB C. Pace - $7 mill
    5 - WR B. Berrian - $7 mill
    6 - S G. Wilson - $6.5 mill
    7 - C J. Faine - $6.25 mill
    8t - CB D. Florence - $6 mill
    8t - OG J. Bell - $6 mill
    10 - DE A. Odom - $5.9 mill
    11- RB M. Turner - $5.75 mill
    12- S M. Williams - $5.5 mill
    13- OG D. Woody - $5.1 mill
    14t - WR D. Stallworth - $5 mill
    14t - WR J. Porter - $5 mill
    14t - OG J. Smiley - $5 mill

    By total contract value

    1 - CB A. Samuel - $57 mill
    2 - DE J. Smith - $45 mill
    3t - WR B. Berrian - $42 mill
    3t - LB C. Pace - $42 mill
    5 - OG A. Faneca - $40 mill
    6 - S G. Wilson - $39 mill
    7 - C J. Faine - $37.5 mill
    8t - CB D. Florence - $36 mill
    8t - OG J. Bell - $36 mill
    10 - WR D. Stallworth - $35 mill
    11- RB M. Turner - $34.5 mill
    12- S M. Williams - $33 mill
    13- WR J. Porter - $30 mill
    14 - DE A. Odom - $29.5 mill
    15 - OG D. Woody - $25.5 mill
    16- OG J. Smiley - $25 mill

    By guaranteed money

    1 - LB C. Pace - $22 mill
    2 - OG A. Faneca - $21 mill
    3t - CB A. Samuel - $20 mill
    3t - DE J. Smith - $20 mill
    5t - WR B. Berrian - $16 mill
    5t - S G. Wilson - $16 mill
    7t - C J. Faine - $15 mill
    7t- RB M. Turner - $15 mill
    9t - CB D. Florence - $13 mill
    9t- S M. Williams - $13 mill
    9t- OG J. Bell - $13 mill
    12- DE A. Odom - $11.5 mill
    13- OG D. Woody - $11 mill
    14- WR J. Porter - $10 mill
    15- WR D. Stallworth - $10 mill
    16- OG J. Smiley - $9 mill

    The NFL awarded FOUR third round compensatory picks in 2007. The NFL awarded ONE third rounder in 2006. The NFL awarded SIX third rounders in 2005. The NFL awarded ONE third rounder in 2004.

    That's TWELVE 3rd rounders in 4 years, for an average of THREE per season, with a high of SIX in one year.

    It doesn't seem like Turner and Florence will make the grade to earn the Chargers a 3rd round Compensatory selection.

    I'd bet we get two fourth rounders next year .... hopefully ....
     
  2. Electric Chair

    Electric Chair New Member

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    AJ has stated that he expects a 3rd and a 4th. We'll see...
     
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  3. LightningStrikes

    LightningStrikes New Member

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    When do they announce this years compensatory picks? Do you think we'll get a 3rd for Donnie Edwards?
     
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  4. Shamrock

    Shamrock New Member

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    I think it will be on the edge between a 4th and 5th .... we should have voted him into the damn Pro Bowl. :lol:
     
  5. Stan_The_Man_12

    Stan_The_Man_12 BoltTalker

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    It's not just the contract, but Sham you already knew that. It's also post season awards and stats that come into play.

    If Turner runs for 1,000 yards I'm certain we get s 3rd rounder, if Florence plays in all 16 games I am certain at worst we get a 4th rounder. Had Donnie Edwards not gotten hurt in KC, thereby affecting his 5 yards downfield tackling stats he would have been a lock to get over 100 tackles and we'd be staring at a 3rd rounder.
    As it is we'll be lucky to get a 4th, IMO.

    My question is which team will bite on AJ's bait and give up a 2nd rounder for Marques Harris.

    Stan :rivers17:
     
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  6. Boltjolt

    Boltjolt Well-Known Member

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    Im pretty sure we will get a 5th and i think it will be the 3rd comp pick in the 5th round from research ive seen.

    Hope im wrong on the round but it doesnt look good. Maybe some other factors will kick in and raise it but i dont see it.
     
  7. Boltjolt

    Boltjolt Well-Known Member

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    Well im not buying that. Id say they have to make the probowl. They only award 3 to 4 3rd round comp picks and we are way down the list as far as money here.

    Even if Donnie doesnt get hurt imo it wouldnt matter. He wasnt going to a probowl anyways.
     
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  8. Shamrock

    Shamrock New Member

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    I don't think anyone will give up a 2nd for M. Harris. If a 3-4 team is looking for an edge pass rusher, and misses the guy they like in the draft, then they might approach AJ to make a deal, but I can't see anyone giving up a 2nd.

    Yeah, I've read what the NFL tells us about the process, and it's very little for understanding how it works. I've also read the threads on the KFFL forums that try and track/forecast this every year.

    I've seen some people that believe the UFA process exists by itself for determining the Comp picks. By that, I mean they think only the UFA contracts are what is considered in the slotting for each round. If that were the case, and we had a year where everyone was re-signed by their own team before UFA (Tommy Kelly, Lance Briggs, Indy TE Clark, etc) then we might be left with some scrubs being the only ones who moved between teams.

    For instance, say all the UFA's with contracts bigger than Cleo Lemon were re-signed by their own team, making Lemon the #1 largest UFA contact of this offseason. Does anyone believe a guy making $2.7 mill/year is going to get a 3rd round Comp pick for their old team? I don't.

    Or, say all the players above Cleo were "offset" by like signings. In other words, teams like SD signed the exact number of FA's we lost for the exact same contract size. So, again, Lemon is the #1 UFA by contract size and by eliminating teams above him because of offsetting signings. IMO, there is no way the Dolphins get a 3rd round Comp just because everyone else was eliminated. It would still be a 6th or 7th, because that's the type size deal to warrant that Compensation.

    To believe Cleo Lemon's deal could earn a third round Comp pick means one believes that the UFA process exists by itself. I don't think it does. League wide contracts must be considered to create "floors" for the amount of money a deal is worth (total contract or average salary) that would slot a player into a Comp round. Playing time/awards/etc will move a guy up or down a little, but the primary consideration is the contract size.

    The guys who have tracked this over time (again, primarily from KFFL forum) have shown that the floors of each round increase slightly each season. They've tried to tie it to RFA tenders, total salary cap increase percentage, etc, but haven't nailed it down. There is something that is the determining factor, and it could be average contracts for a certain segment just like the NFL does to come up with Franchise and Transition numbers. Just use a larger sample, and divide by the amount of positions combined .... I don't know what the factors are, but logic dictates UFA does not exist in a vacuum when Comp picks are determined.

    Regardless of how the NFL figures it, each round will have a floor. The KFFL guys have always used contract averages to estimate future Comp pick awards. Then after the picks are awarded, they go back and match up their guesses with reality, and plug the names/contract numbers to the picks. Here is the 2007 awards:
    The "floor" of the third round was basically $6 million per year. There is a grey area in between the top of the 4th and bottom of the 3rd.
    Maybe Weaver was bumped down due to playing time, or combined with Hope getting some recognition. I don't know. But, this shows a basic area of $5.3 mill to $6.0 mill is where the cut-off fell for the 3rd round picks awarded in the 2007 draft.

    The picks we get for the 2009 draft will have TWO inflation adjustments to the "floor" of the 3rd round. Given that our BEST average contract to acquire a Comp pick is D-Flo's $6 mill/year, this doesn't bode well for a 3rd rounder.

    If contract inflation only goes up just $100-200k per season, then it will take nearly a $6.5 mill/year contract to guarantee a 3rd rounder in the 2009 Compensatory award. Florence and Turner don't quite make it.
     
  9. Buck Melanoma

    Buck Melanoma Guest

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    Good info here. Thanks, Shammie & company. Looks to me that the comp picks are, if not an exact science, certainly an odd & somewhat secretive brew.

    Donnie probably brings us a 4th this year, IMO. I really hope that MT's stats next year grab us a 3rd, but that seems unlikely based upon the info here. DFlo? Anybody's guess. Depends largely upon which guy shows up to play.

    Here's to the magic of an AJ draft. :icon_toast: Sure he'll pull some type of rabbit out his as .... errr, um, hat. :lol:
     
  10. bigcarson50

    bigcarson50 New Member

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    One thing to remember about that list. Most of those players will not lead to any picks for their team. A large portion of the secret formula boils down to how many players you lose overall vs how many you sign. (PS the jets aren't going to get any comp picks)
     
  11. Trumpet_Man

    Trumpet_Man New Member

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    Bingo. It appears someone finally "gets it".

    Compensation picks (for free agents lost) are based on NET contractural values lost or gained and not simply what a leaving free agent received...........
     
  12. wrbanwal

    wrbanwal Well-Known Member

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    does signing Volek factor into this equation?

    Technically he WAS a free agent, no ???

    :icon_shrug:
     
  13. Trumpet_Man

    Trumpet_Man New Member

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    This applies to ALL free agents signed and lost.

    All of them.

    The net contractural values (which one can not determine since we do not know the escalators) can not be determined. It is like pissing in the wind in a sense since the formula used by the NFL Management Council to determine compensatory picks has never been fully disclosed anywhere. There are always vague references to net contractural values but never a breakdown of the components to arrive at a final decision to determine our compensation.
     
  14. Kwak

    Kwak ....

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    I don't think Volek factors in, but then with the NFL fuzzy math.... :icon_shrug:
     
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  15. Trumpet_Man

    Trumpet_Man New Member

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    I do not remember if we offered a draft pick in return for Volek? If so, then nothing applies other than the teams pocketbook and draft picks lost.

    In the instance where we traded player for player, then the net differential formula comes into play.
     
  16. Electric Chair

    Electric Chair New Member

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    Resigning your own FA's does not apply. See Dielman last year/Donnies compensatory pick this year.
     
  17. SanDiegoRon

    SanDiegoRon BoltTalker

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    buzzkill.... :icon_eek:

    :lol:
     
  18. Trumpet_Man

    Trumpet_Man New Member

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    I think he means when we acquired Volek from the Titans and how it affects the compensatory picks.
     
  19. wrbanwal

    wrbanwal Well-Known Member

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    ahh, this is good then

    carry on
     
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  20. wrbanwal

    wrbanwal Well-Known Member

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    :icon_shrug:


    :lol:
     
  21. SanDiegoRon

    SanDiegoRon BoltTalker

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    I think he meant.... :lol:

    that we resigned Big Balls 1/2 day into free agency... in theory he was a free man... no longer our property...
     
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  22. Shamrock

    Shamrock New Member

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    Exactly.

    For the gain/loss of UFA's, Volek won't count. Even if he did count, then it's a wash because SD "lost" him, then "gained" him for a net gain/loss of zero.

    As far as his initial acquisition, that was a trade with the Titans. Trades don't affect the Comp process either for counting gains/losses.

    Also remember that players released (McCree, Olivea, Neal) don't count. Neither does signing a player that has been released (LB D. Smith). Only players that have played out their contract to UFA status will count in the gains/losses for each team.
     
  23. Thread_Killer

    Thread_Killer Well-Known Member

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    We will get a 5th rounder for Donnie Edwards this year.

    We will get a 4th rounder for Michael Turner next year.

    We will get a 5th rounder for Drayton Florence next year.
     
  24. Shamrock

    Shamrock New Member

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    Agreed, but that counts for the number of picks, not which rounds they fall.

    There is no doubt that SD will get two picks, one each for Florence and Turner.

    From looking at past 3rd round Comp awards, it looks like Florence's contract average puts him right at the edge of the 3rd round floor and 4th round ceiling.

    Yet, Acee believes Turner is the one who has the better chance at earning SD a 3rd: (From Acee's mailbag)
    I'm not sure about that "real money" comment, when the report difference in "guaranteed money is $15 mill for Turner and $13 mill for Florence. That's not "much bigger" .... at least not a large enough difference to completely offset a difference in Florence having a larger annual average of $250,000, which makes Florence's deal $1.5 mill larger in total.

    Drayton Florence base pay - NFLPA.org

    2008 1000000.00
    2009 1500000.00
    2010 4900000.00
    2011 5900000.00
    2012 5900000.00
    2013 5900000.00

    ... $ 25,000,000.00 ( + $13 mill = $38 mill)

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    Michael Turner - base pay - NFLPA.org

    2008 1000000.00
    2009 1000000.00
    2010 2000000.00
    2011 5000000.00
    2012 5000000.00
    2013 5500000.00

    ... $ 19,500,000.00 (+ $15 mill = $34.5 mill)

    ~~~~~~~~

    So, adding the reported "guaranteed" money into each player's base pay shows that Turner's matches, suggesting that "guaranteed" means "bonus."

    In Florence's example, the "guaranteed" pushes the total to $2 mill over the reported total contract value. That suggests the term "guaranteed" means a combination of base pay (in years 1 and 2) and the bonuses.

    Still, that may or may not mean that Turner's deal is "much bigger" as a bonus could be an out year that is counted as "guaranteed" and in the NFL, nothing is guaranteed until it's actually paid. We'd have to know the exact breakdowns of the bonuses and when they are to be paid.

    Further .... the question becomes what is a bigger factor? Total reported contract value? First year actual money paid (bonus and salary)? First two years? Average of first three years?

    The NFL has never said how each of those types of value affects the Comp process. That's why I listed each reported value number (total, "guaranteed," and the average). The guys who track Comp picks and get it close use the average of the deal as the most important factor, with the other values making slight adjustments.

    Yet, Acee suggests "real money" (ie - guaranteed) is the biggest influence on comp picks. I agree that some contracts come with real funny money (ie - SF CB Clements had two years voided within a month of signing, so 8 years at $80 mill became 6 years at $54 mill). Do we know if Turner or Florence have funny money in them? Or any others above them on the UFA contract rankings? Does Acee have everyone's contract and know everyone's "real money?"

    A case could be made that Turner's deal is more "real" than Florence's, but a case could be made the other way as well. The intent of Atlanta may be this is a three year deal because of how RB's burn out so fast, but JAX's intent may be that Florence's deal will go the distance because of how expensive it is to find CB's.

    But this isn't just a discussion about Florence and Turner, it's also about everyone else in the UFA class. How many of them are getting more "real money" than our two ex-players? If a case can be made that Turner's deal is really bigger than Florences (even with a lower average and smaller total value) then the same case might be made for player's listed under Turner. Each contract detailed would have to be explored, so Acee's assertion is mitigated in that regard.

    Again, the contract floor for the awarded Comp picks in the 2007 draft was just around the Turner/Florence area. Inflation of two drafts suggests that both their deals will fall down to the fourth round area.
     
  25. Shamrock

    Shamrock New Member

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    I wish you'd take a stand on something once in a while instead of being so wishy washy.

    :lol:
     
  26. Boltjolt

    Boltjolt Well-Known Member

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    Thats where i get most of my info on the comp picks. That Adam guy on KFFL is really good at predicting them, tho he is never 100%, he does do a good job with the formula he uses and if you have ever seen his threads which he does once a year, he breaks it down very well.
     
  27. Boltjolt

    Boltjolt Well-Known Member

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    I still say we will get a 5th for Donnie.

    Stats wont have anything to do with Turner netting us a 3rd round comp pick. It is awards that matter more. If he makes the probowl we will get a higher pick than if he doesnt with the same stats.

    It may not even be a whole round higher if he makes teh probowl depending on where he slots contract wise. It may be the first pick in the 4th round comp area instead of say the 4th in that round, or it could move him up to the 3rd round area.

    IMO the contract slotting will determine MOST of that to start with from the last few years of seeing these threads and what has happened.
     
  28. Thread_Killer

    Thread_Killer Well-Known Member

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    At least my posts are short enough that people will actually bother to read them.


    Just kidding. :icon_smile:
     
  29. Shamrock

    Shamrock New Member

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    :tdown:

    :no:

    :lol:
     
  30. Stan_The_Man_12

    Stan_The_Man_12 BoltTalker

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    I think using the Cleo Lemon example was a bad one Sham, I know you are smarter than that, Cleo was an undrafted free agent and career back up pressed into service as a pseudo-starter this year for a handful of games, yes you are right no one in his right mind would ever think Cleo could garner a 3rd rounder but you know Florence was a former 2nd round pick with 40+ starts and Turner is a former 5th rounder with nothing but production behind his name, that's comparing a spoiled Tomatoe [Cleo] with some suculent ripe Avocadoes [Turner and Florence] you know pure $$$ numbers don't tell the whole story, but this issue is still a moot point because the actual formula on how the NFL awards compensatory draft choices is a closely guarded secret and formula so vague that it's authors the C.I.A. have threated to waterboard me if I even mention "compensatory pick formula" to form a sentece.

    Well leave it at that. :flag:

    Stan :rivers17:
     

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