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28 points = WIN 90% of the time for Chargers

Discussion in 'Chargers Fan Forum' started by WonderSlug, Nov 30, 2009.

  1. WonderSlug

    WonderSlug New Member

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    The Chargers have scored 28 points or more 28 times since Rivers became the starter. This includes the 2007 season playoff game at Indy.

    They've won 25 out of those 28 times, for an 89% winning percentage.

    The 3 losses:

    2009 @ Pittsburgh, lost 38-28
    2008 @ Denver, lost 39-38 (*)
    2008 @ New Orleans (London), lost 37-32

    If you throw in what SHOULD have been a victory in Denver last year (the Hochuli game where we scored 38 points), then that pushes it to 92%.

    I'll just use 90% as a nice round number to remember.

    Why is this point total seemingly a threshold for victory?

    28 points is achieved most frequently by scoring 4 TDs. When a team scores 4 TDs, by whatever method, it suggests several things are happening in the game:

    1.) The offense is performing well enough to score at least 3 of those TDs and/or well enough for good TOP to give the defense a rest. The receivers are catching passes thrown to them. The running backs are gaining yards for the most part, instead of being tackled behind the LoS. There aren't many offensive penalties to kill drives. The QB is making good throwing decisions, isn't getting sacked, and the offense isn't turning the ball over.

    2.) The defense is creating enough 3rd down stops, redzone defenses, or turnovers to give the offense good field position and chances to score TDs. There are sacks or at least QB pressures to force errant throws. Maybe the defense even scores a TD on an INT or a fumble recovery.

    3.) The special teams are holding up well. They may even contribute with a kick return or fumble recovery for a TD on occasion.

    Thus, victory 90% of the time.

    Now, those 3 losses are the rare exception where the defense failed to hold the opposition. It gave up quick TDs and/or failed to prevent 3rd down conversions. Hence allowing at least 5 TDs itself for a loss.
     
  2. Buck Blincoe

    Buck Blincoe BoltTalker

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    With no intent to denigrate Rivers' accomplishments, he is a terrific QB, I would wager that most NFL games where a team scores 28, that team would be the winner.

    Anyone have those kinds of stats out there?
     
  3. WonderSlug

    WonderSlug New Member

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    Especially if their coach doesn't go for it on 4th and 2 from his own 29 in the final minutes.... :lol:
     
  4. RM24

    RM24 BoltTalker

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    Ouch! So Buck, now that Weis got fired from Notre Dame, are you guys gonna get him back?
     
  5. Kwak

    Kwak ....

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    Overrated. Funny that Weis had the most success with Willingham's recruits.

    He did recruit some offensive stars on the current roster, but his D was a FAIL. They couldn't stop anyone.
     
  6. WonderSlug

    WonderSlug New Member

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    Actually ,if you watched their games this year, it wasn't their lack of offense that lost them 5 of those 6 games.

    It was their lack of defense. Weis turned over complete control of the defense to Jon Tenuta and focused entirely on the offense and Clausen.

    Notre Dame's losses:

    Michigan, 34-31

    USC, 34-27

    Navy, 23-21 where the defense allowed 300+ yards rushing

    Pittsburgh, 27-22 where the defense allowed 430 yards of offense including almost 200 yards rushing

    Connecticut, 36-33 in OT

    Stanford, 45-38 where the defense allowed a single RB to get 200+ yards rushing


    I could understand questioning Weis' offensive ability if Notre Dame had lost games by say, 38-10, but when your team scores 31 points or more, it should win if it has even an average defense. A little better defense, and Notre Dame is 10-2 instead of 6-6 and Weis is still HC of the Irish.
     

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