1. Welcome to San Diego Chargers NFL Football Podcast and Forum!

    Bolt Talk is one of the largest online communities for the San Diego Chargers. We host a regular Chargers podcast during the season. You are currently viewing our community forums as a guest user.

    Create an Account or

    Having an account grants you additional privileges, such as creating and participating in discussions. Furthermore, we hide most of the ads once you register as a member!
    Dismiss Notice

AccuScore analysis of Chargers-Dolphins

Discussion in 'Chargers Fan Forum' started by Johnny Lightning, Sep 26, 2009.

  1. Johnny Lightning

    Johnny Lightning Go Bolts

    Joined:
    Feb 7, 2006
    Messages:
    23,310
    Ratings:
    +1,703
    By Stephen Oh

    SPECIAL TO THE UNION-TRIBUNE
    September 26, 2009



    AccuScore runs 10,000 computer simulations of NFL games, one play at a time to project the likely outcome. Here is its assesment of today's Chargers game against the Dolphins:
    The Chargers should beat Miami and they are winning more than 70 percent of simulations by an average of one touchdown. Philip Rivers is forecasted for yet another great game with a passer rating close to 100 in simulations and he is throwing more than twice as many TDs as INTs. The Dolphins struggled to prevent big passing plays against the Colts Monday night, and you can expect the Chargers to have similar success. Vincent Jackson is averaging five receptions per simulation with an average of 17 yards per reception. In contrast, the Dolphins cannot convert big passing plays and Dolphins WRs are all averaging fewer than 10 yards per reception.

    SAN DIEGO MUST STOP MIAMI RUNNING GAME

    The Chargers defense is in the bottom third of the league in stopping the run. The Dolphins are third in the league in rushing yards per game on a strong 4.7 yards per carry. The injuries to San Diego's defensive line leave the team vulnerable to the Dolphins' running game. If the Chargers' passing game can get them ahead by 10 points or more early in the game, the Chargers can force the Dolphins to pass more than they would like. This is what is expected to happen and as a result, the duo of Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams are only averaging around 90 rushing yards per simulation.
    When the Chargers do not get an early lead and the Dolphins can stick with the run throughout the game, the Dolphins duo has more than 100 yards and the Chargers actually become the slight underdog, winning just 49 percent of these simulations. When the Chargers do take the commanding first-half lead and the Dolphins RBs are held to fewer than 100 yards, the Chargers are the big 87-percent favorite.

    R. BROWN & R. WILLIAMS %Chance SD WIN

    Baseline rushing: 90 Yards – 70% Duo rushes for 100 or more yards 35% 49%
    Duo rushes for fewer than 100 65% 87%

    IT'S A BAD THING IF RIVERS HAS 300+ YARDS

    Philip Rivers had 436 yards vs. Baltimore (a loss) and 252 yards in a win in Week 1. The fact is, more than 60 percent of QBs have more passing yards in losses or close wins than in big wins because teams have more passing yards when they are playing from behind. Rivers is only averaging 236 passing yards per simulation because the Chargers are expected to be playing from ahead against Miami.
    In simulations where Rivers has a big 275-plus passing-yard game, the Chargers actually win less (66 percent) than when Rivers has fewer than 225 yards passing (73 percent). This inverse relationship (more passing yards equals fewer wins) is not true if applied to just the first half of the game. If things are going well with San Diego, it will have a 10-point lead at halftime with Rivers having 150 of his 230 passing yards in the first half.

    RIVERS PASSING YARDS %Chance SD WIN

    Baseline yards: 236 – 70%
    Rivers has 275 or more 28% 6%
    Rivers has 225 or fewer 42% 73%
     
  2. Skuzzlebutt

    Skuzzlebutt BoltTalker

    Joined:
    Jan 10, 2007
    Messages:
    939
    Ratings:
    +128
    Interesting stats on Rivers' passing yardage. Never thought I'd hope for under 200 yards...
     
  3. Cheapseats

    Cheapseats Loud, proud Charger fan

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2008
    Messages:
    1,362
    Ratings:
    +373
    I wouldn't mind big numbers in the passing game at this point.
    Since our running game is still sputtering, we need to run enough to keep the Dolphins defense honest. Otherwise they will just pin their ears back and send the house against Rivers on every down. While I understand that the large amount of passing yards typically means a team has abandonded the running game completely and is passing on virtually every down playing catch up...it may not necessarily pan out that way. If our pass-happy offense finds weakness to exploit Rivers could still put up big numbers in a winning effort...and besides, if the Dolphins defense gets gassed chasing VJ, Sproles, Gates, Floyd and Naanee up and down the field that could open up our running game too.

    Bottom line: I don't think the Dolphins can take away all of our weapons on offense. Fasten your seatbelts, folks.
     
  4. matilack

    matilack Take A Knee McCree!!!

    Joined:
    Aug 14, 2006
    Messages:
    17,098
    Ratings:
    +3,551
    Just win.

    Screw stats, just ****ing win.
     
  5. Skuzzlebutt

    Skuzzlebutt BoltTalker

    Joined:
    Jan 10, 2007
    Messages:
    939
    Ratings:
    +128
    CHURCH, M-Fer.
     

Share This Page