1. Welcome to San Diego Chargers NFL Football Podcast and Forum!

    Bolt Talk is one of the largest online communities for the San Diego Chargers. We host a regular Chargers podcast during the season. You are currently viewing our community forums as a guest user.

    Create an Account or

    Having an account grants you additional privileges, such as creating and participating in discussions. Furthermore, we hide most of the ads once you register as a member!
    Dismiss Notice

AJ Smith Does It Again

Discussion in 'Chargers Fan Forum' started by Concudan, Apr 22, 2010.

  1. Concudan

    Concudan Caffeinated Commando

    Joined:
    Mar 5, 2006
    Messages:
    53,033
    Ratings:
    +4,976
    Some Charger fans are fuming. Some are numb; others are smiling and enjoying the moment. AJ Smith, General Manager of the San Diego Chargers has pulled off another good trade. What is that you say? Are you daft? No I am not daft. Let’s break this down.

    AJ moved the Charger up 16 spots in the first round, going from the 28th pick to the 12th pick. To do this he gave up the 40th pick in the draft, swapped the fourth round picks, moving up another 16 spots in the fourth, going from the 126th pick to the 110th. Top it off he also got a sixth round pick, the 173rd over all. So if you look at that, it does not look too bad, but not too good either.

    However, if you look at the draft pick value chart, which is where the crust of the biscuit turns nice and golden. In the first round, AJ gave up the 28th pick which has a value of 660 points. He got the 12th pick which has a value of 1200 points, which is a gain of 540 points. In the second round AJ gave up the 40th pick overall that is a pick with a value of 500 points. That brings the net total down to 40 points in our favor. Not bad…

    Add to that the switch in the fourth round; pick 126, with a value of 46 points traded for pick 110, with a value of 74 points. That is a 28 point gain, bringing our point total to 68, getting better no? Lets tack on the 6th round pick up of the 173rd pick, with a value of 23.2 points, then you realize that this isn’t at all a bad trade.

    All in all AJ made a trade that netted us a total of 91.2 points. Looking at the value of these pick is the way to go. It is what the GMs of the teams do when considering a trade of draft picks. This was a good trade, and it filled possibly our biggest need. We got a Running Back who has the potential to be a franchise player.

    Looking at it, as the GMs do, there is no way you can consider this a poor trade. If Ryan Mathews gives the Chargers Offense the staying power to stay on the field, forces the opposing Defenses to be more honest, then this will be a trade that will rank a bit below the trade for Philip Rivers.

    Using a draft trade calculator such as the one found at NFL Draft Pick Value Calculators & Chart you can plug in the trade in the first round. You will see that it gives AJ an A+ on the trade based on value of the picks, indicating that AJ gained +81.82% on the value he gave up. The Dolphins in turn get a B, but have a -45% value. Folks, it is more than losing a 2nd pick, this is a trade that if looking at the whole value, putting in all the pick you will see the Chargers come away with an A grade. Do the math, you will see that it is a positive trade.

    As always, time will be the ultimate judge of this trade, I for one believe that it will be judged a good trade and a good move for the Chargers.
     
  2. matilack

    matilack Take A Knee McCree!!!

    Joined:
    Aug 14, 2006
    Messages:
    17,097
    Ratings:
    +3,551
    Ok, he actually gave up the 40th pick (500pts), not the 60th. And the 28th is worth 660pts.

    1200-1160 = 40pts in our favor, meaning we got good value in the trade.

    Not to mention moving up in the 4th round and gaining a 6th round pick without giving up a key contributor in Dobbins.
     
  3. turbo_turtle

    turbo_turtle In Disguise

    Joined:
    Aug 2, 2006
    Messages:
    7,685
    Ratings:
    +890
    We traded Dobbins as well. He was part of the deal. :icon_toast:
     
  4. Concudan

    Concudan Caffeinated Commando

    Joined:
    Mar 5, 2006
    Messages:
    53,033
    Ratings:
    +4,976
    Yeah, I looked at the one we sent to the Seahawks. I will fix that now.
     
  5. AnteaterCharger

    AnteaterCharger Calibrating Bolttalk, Podcast by Podcast Staff Member Super Moderator Podcaster

    Joined:
    Jan 19, 2006
    Messages:
    19,108
    Ratings:
    +2,928
    I'm not at all against what AJ did, I just worry he filled the easiest hole instead the hole we needed the most.

    We definitely got the best running back in the draft, and for alot less then you'd figure. I just worry it puts us in a very very bad position to get a NT which I think is a bigger and harder to fill need then RB
     
  6. Concudan

    Concudan Caffeinated Commando

    Joined:
    Mar 5, 2006
    Messages:
    53,033
    Ratings:
    +4,976
    Another way to look at is that AJ Smith thought this trade GAINED the value of the 102nd pick of the draft. A 4th round pick in out favor.
     
  7. Concudan

    Concudan Caffeinated Commando

    Joined:
    Mar 5, 2006
    Messages:
    53,033
    Ratings:
    +4,976
    How exactly does it put us in a "very very bad position to get a NT"?

    We have four people on the team that played NT last season and did a very good job. OG in particular did well when lined up there.

    “OG is one of those guys you point to and use as an example,” defensive coordinator Ron Rivera said. “Here's a guy we got off the street, who was trying to earn a living. . . . He made the commitment to get better, and he did. Now you can see him making strides.”

    The future NT of the team is already on it. We wont find some gem int he draft, Young Jamal Williams' don't come along very often. CB is a more pressing need than NT.
     
  8. matilack

    matilack Take A Knee McCree!!!

    Joined:
    Aug 14, 2006
    Messages:
    17,097
    Ratings:
    +3,551
  9. matilack

    matilack Take A Knee McCree!!!

    Joined:
    Aug 14, 2006
    Messages:
    17,097
    Ratings:
    +3,551
    I love Mathews but I have to agree. NT is a tougher position to fill, and I don't love any of the "NTs" we have on our roster right now.

    I wonder if AJ just doesn't see any true NT's in this class. Either look for him to move up from 91 to address it, or save our stockpile of picks in next years draft to move WAAY up and take the best NT in the 2011 class.
     
  10. turbo_turtle

    turbo_turtle In Disguise

    Joined:
    Aug 2, 2006
    Messages:
    7,685
    Ratings:
    +890
    I agree to a certain extent with you Conc except for the CB issue, we got Vasher and I think is excellent for us. You forgot about Martin as a possible NT and then there is Scott.
     
  11. Concudan

    Concudan Caffeinated Commando

    Joined:
    Mar 5, 2006
    Messages:
    53,033
    Ratings:
    +4,976
    I mentioned there are four that have lined up there. I think OG has the inside track on the position. Martin is still a little raw.

    I think we still need a young CB, Vasher is a vet, not that there is anything wrong with that, but we need people we can get ready to take over when players like Jammer cant go any longer.
     
  12. AnteaterCharger

    AnteaterCharger Calibrating Bolttalk, Podcast by Podcast Staff Member Super Moderator Podcaster

    Joined:
    Jan 19, 2006
    Messages:
    19,108
    Ratings:
    +2,928
    Permit me to translate what Rivera is saying

    "We found him off the street, he's working hard and improving but he's not particularly good"

    With the exception of Vaughn Martin and maybe Antonio Garay, we don't have a good nose tackle on the team, and both these guys are raw as steak tartar. Ian Scott is a backup at best, same as Travis Johnson. None of those guys can or do fully replace Jamal Williams

    Not to mention we don't pick again until very late in hte third round. With the exception perhaps of Torrell Troup (unless Cody drops like a 354lb stone) there will not be any of the top NTs available (Thomas, Joseph, Cody likely, perhaps Troup). We would have to trade up and hand over more picks/players. Nose tackles are rare and hard to find in any draft - running backs are not.

    Again I like the pick up of Matthews but I worry in getting him we lost out on a chance to fill a bigger need with Dan Williams or later with Thomas/Cody
     
  13. turbo_turtle

    turbo_turtle In Disguise

    Joined:
    Aug 2, 2006
    Messages:
    7,685
    Ratings:
    +890
    I guess my Blue and Gold Glasses for Cason could be wrong about our future for a CB and then there is Strickland to include the 2 Hughes and possibly Gregory as a CB moving from the Safety position. I just like our DB's where they are at as my opinion.
     
  14. Concudan

    Concudan Caffeinated Commando

    Joined:
    Mar 5, 2006
    Messages:
    53,033
    Ratings:
    +4,976
    Really, is that what he is saying? Have you spoken to him on this? Tell you what, why not go do a quick search and tell me who started the most at NT last season, then tell me what Rivera is saying.

    Remember, Google is your friend.
     
  15. Brundlefly

    Brundlefly Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 3, 2009
    Messages:
    2,338
    Ratings:
    +370
    This seems unnecessarily hostile. There wasn't any maliciousness to his post.
     
  16. szarmes

    szarmes I am the Walrus

    Joined:
    Jan 11, 2010
    Messages:
    1,082
    Ratings:
    +37
    What I get out of what happened today is that AJ obviously has faith in our d-line. If he was really that concerned about it, he could've gotten Graham, Williams, Morgan, or Pierre-Paul with the 12th pick. He knows that our run game was straight up crap last year and that we needed to improve it in anyway possible to contend for a championship. Most people don't like the call because we no-longer have a 2nd round pick. Well, TS! Adding the best feature back in the draft who can contribute right away is way better than adding another rotational d-line player. Sacrifices sometimes need to be made. Plus, we have some bargaining chips to regain that 2nd if AJ really wants it. Today was a historic day indeed for the Chargers
     
    • Like Like x 1
  17. Concudan

    Concudan Caffeinated Commando

    Joined:
    Mar 5, 2006
    Messages:
    53,033
    Ratings:
    +4,976
    There was nothing hostile in the post. He is speaking to what Rivera is 'really' saying. I want to know how it is that he knows that. Is it that Rivera is a habitual liar, speaks in code, or speaks to Ant?

    Otherwise, to say that the quotes from Rivera is not what he meant, and use that as an argument to bolster his desire to say that AJ messed up by not panicking and getting a NT is to be frank, a load of hog wash. Of course, that is simply my opinion...
     
  18. AnteaterCharger

    AnteaterCharger Calibrating Bolttalk, Podcast by Podcast Staff Member Super Moderator Podcaster

    Joined:
    Jan 19, 2006
    Messages:
    19,108
    Ratings:
    +2,928
    I also used google to watch OG at nose tackle, and he didn't look very good at all. From Baltimore til Denver he looked very bad up front as a nose tackle. And games where we were atrocious up front and were run all over are not something I'd put on your resume.

    I don't feel comfortable nor should anyone that we go into the 2010 season with the hodge podge of backups at our cornerstone defensive position. And currently we aren't in a good position (late third) to acquire a NT
     
  19. Concudan

    Concudan Caffeinated Commando

    Joined:
    Mar 5, 2006
    Messages:
    53,033
    Ratings:
    +4,976
    Well respectfully, I am going to have to question your ability to judge the position based on this.

    Perhaps you can find video and break it down for us...
     
  20. AnteaterCharger

    AnteaterCharger Calibrating Bolttalk, Podcast by Podcast Staff Member Super Moderator Podcaster

    Joined:
    Jan 19, 2006
    Messages:
    19,108
    Ratings:
    +2,928
    Respectfully I disagree with your optimism based on a guy who played NT at a time when we got steamrolled repeatedly
     
  21. Concudan

    Concudan Caffeinated Commando

    Joined:
    Mar 5, 2006
    Messages:
    53,033
    Ratings:
    +4,976
    Seriously, try using some perspective and logic. You point out OG's game with Baltimore. When did that happen? Wasn't that one of his first games in the position. WOW! Makes sense. In fact IT WAS THE FIRST GAME IN THE POSITION! The second game of the season. That is what you judge the position by?

    Now you want to claim that the team that won 11 of it's last 12 games got... How did you put it... 'steamrolled repeatedly'. Correct me if I am wrong, but isn't the idea of the defense to prevent the opposing offense from scoring more points than our offense. So we got 'steamrolled' on a regular basis, but still took the second seed in the playoffs? Great stuff there... really...

    It is one thing when people think they know more than the coaches and front office people of the team, but when someone tries to change the wording of a direct quote from a coach, that just makes you wonder at what they are thinking.
     
  22. boltsnow

    boltsnow BoltTalker

    Joined:
    Oct 13, 2006
    Messages:
    1,335
    Ratings:
    +56
    Have to agree here. Once Rivera got a hold of the defense when Jamal went down, it took a bit to get the right pieces but once he did the defense improved leaps and bounds (IMO). Our run offense was 31st in teh league. That to me was more of a glaring need. If we keep the front line the same then we needed more of a pounder then finesse for RB and we now have that. AJ usually seems to always wait till the later rounds to try and get some beef. Besides, today is gonna be a looooong day to try and manuever if he thinks he needs to. I'm sure he didn't draft RM and then start from scratch for our next pick. You would have to believe he has a plan on exactly what he wants to do after the first pick. :icon_shrug:
     
  23. AnteaterCharger

    AnteaterCharger Calibrating Bolttalk, Podcast by Podcast Staff Member Super Moderator Podcaster

    Joined:
    Jan 19, 2006
    Messages:
    19,108
    Ratings:
    +2,928
    OG was at NT for all of the following games. Here's what the opposing team ran on us for

    Baltimore: 130 team yards
    Miami: 149
    Pittsburgh: 177 (we had 16)
    Denver: 101
    Kansas City: 121 yards
    Raiders: 99 yards
    Giants: 116 yards

    Average total: 127.6 yards per game

    Why should I be confident in OG? I'm not saying he's a bad player or that he can't get better, but you have an incredible amount of faith in not only him but a hodgepodge of defensive tackles that, while did a decent job, could not and is not able to replace Jamal Williams. Whereas a Dan Williams or a Terrance Cody can and should be able to.
     
  24. Chargerfn909

    Chargerfn909 High and tight kid, high and tight!

    Joined:
    Mar 4, 2010
    Messages:
    540
    Ratings:
    +34
    I feel like someone punched me in the face last night.
     
  25. ChargerRay

    ChargerRay #FireMcCoy #FirePagano Staff Member Super Moderator Podcaster

    Joined:
    Jun 20, 2005
    Messages:
    8,510
    Ratings:
    +867
    A healthy Merriman, Siler, Cooper, Philips, with last years front rotation should be pretty good. OG, Martin, Johnson, they all have a full year of experience plus this offseason to improve. It would still be nice to land a quality DE/DT and I'm still concerned about our safeties.
     
  26. coachmarkos

    coachmarkos BoltTalker

    Joined:
    Jul 12, 2009
    Messages:
    306
    Ratings:
    +47
    One thing to remember, even if you didn't like the guys we had last year, is that we have 9 guys coming back to fill 7 spots. And that's without Jamal.

    NT: Scott, Garay, OG
    DE: Castillo, Cesaire, TJ, Bingham, Boone, Martin

    So while we will likely draft a D-lineman...I don't see the "need" as being that great. The run defense improved greatly down the stretch last year. Would be nice to see more pass rush, but I think with Merriman's injury, and English's improvement...it'll get better.

    I said this in a earlier thread a few weeks ago...dominating NT's don't grow on trees and don't become that way right away. Jamal took several years to become the monster that he was. Shoot, he didn't even start til his third season. So to think a DL is going to come in and be a gamebreaking type player at that position is just wishful thinking, IMO. Now, I do hope they draft one, because I like Martin's potential at DE.
     
  27. MasterOfPuppets

    MasterOfPuppets Charger fan since 1979

    Joined:
    Aug 8, 2006
    Messages:
    3,052
    Ratings:
    +635
    is it possible that OG, Martin, et. will improve from last year to next?

    would a second round rookie NT make a bigger impact than those two guys?

    BTW, I think when two of those NT talked about are off the board AJ will try to get back in the second round
     
  28. SDKCFAN

    SDKCFAN BoltTalker

    Joined:
    Jun 6, 2009
    Messages:
    101
    Ratings:
    +6
    In my humble opinion, I think we gave up too much for Matt Ryan. He has NOT played a FULL HEALTHY season in college. We can't afford a running back who is nicked up all the time.
     
  29. MasterOfPuppets

    MasterOfPuppets Charger fan since 1979

    Joined:
    Aug 8, 2006
    Messages:
    3,052
    Ratings:
    +635
    I agree, specially with Philip Rivers on this roster, Matt Ryan will only be a backup, wait, what did we give up for Atlanta's QB ? :icon_huh::icon_tease:
     
  30. szarmes

    szarmes I am the Walrus

    Joined:
    Jan 11, 2010
    Messages:
    1,082
    Ratings:
    +37
    QFT

    Would a DT prospect who doesn't know our defense actually have more impact than guys who have experience running our defense? Why can't we just develop the players we have?
     

Share This Page