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Aldon Smith Missouri

Discussion in 'Chargers Fan Forum' started by RM24, Apr 5, 2011.

  1. RM24

    RM24 BoltTalker

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  2. matilack

    matilack Take A Knee McCree!!!

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    Ehh...hard for me to get excited about this guy.

    Pass Rush: He's a lumberer, he plays strait up and down and leaves his knees really exposed which kinda scares me. He also gives up on a lot of plays once they head in the other direction. Some decent rip and pull moves made Nate Solder look like a fool, but he lacks the acceleration to beat his man around the corner.
    Run defense: Very good when shooting out of the 3 point stance, but looks awkward when standing up.
    Read/React: Inconsistant. At times he looks a step ahead of everyone, very disruptive in the backfield, other times he's just not running.

    I think he's a 4-3 DE. Maybe the Bucs at 20 or the Saints at 24 would love to have him.
     
  3. matilack

    matilack Take A Knee McCree!!!

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    I'll tell you what, if Robert Quinn falls to 10 (99% likely it won't happen) we should jump up and grab him, that guy is the ****** truth.

    It would take an epic collapse in scouting for multiple teams to let him fall that far, but given the character questions anything can happen.
     
  4. The LBC

    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    That I agree with, save for the fact that 1) the Skins would likely take him at #10 so we'd have to trade up to #9 with Dallas, and 2) it would cost our first two picks to make that 9-pick jump (possibly more considering how generous Dallas is feeling or how much stock Jerry Jones puts in the draft pick value chart... where our first two picks come up a Top 5 4th short of being equal value). Dallas might well be willing to do it - being that if both Peterson and Amukamara are off the board they're likely targets (the OT's) don't hold great value until the later teens (and they'd still be ahead of the Giants who are the first major threat - aside from maybe Detroit), but is Quinn worth what would quite likely be our first two picks and Seattle's 3rd (we'd be lucky if we could recoup a 6th in balance as trades typically favor the team trading down)? Moreover, that puts us with Quinn and then no DE until the 62nd overall selection (which means we're likely reaching for a 3rd tier guy just to satisfy a need) and painted into a corner to where we'd be going at our natural 3rd (RT) where teams would know what position we're obviously targeting and could trade ahead of us without worry because we wouldn't have the ammo to move up.

    Realistically, I can't see a scenario (unless both Houston and Washington aren't sold on Quinn) where we can land him without spending what would essentially be 75% of our draft on one player. The draft order isn't to our advantage with teams at #10, #11, #12, and #13 all possible candidates to take him and only so many QB's to go around to the ones among them that need that positions (Washington, Minnesota).

    I hate to say it, but I wager that if anyone trades up for Quinn (aside from maybe Houston trying to jump Washington) it's likely to be New England (Belichick 9/10 times won't draft OLB's in the 1st round, but this could be a very BB type move where he gets a guy who fits his scheme extremely well and thus is worth the trade up from an acquired pick).

    Though I do agree with you on Smith, I like him far far more as a RDE (2nd best in this draft on my rankings, just under Quinn) than I do as an OLB. And RDE's are actually a rare commodity in this draft class (lots of LDE's not so many pure RDE's which are the coveted position). He doesn't fit the typical mold of player that Gene Smith (Jacksonville's GM) normally selects, but it wouldn't shock me to see them select him. Tampa's the furthest he'd fall. Detroit a possibility. And I could even see a team without a lot of holes like New Orleans trade up to take him (he's actually one of the guys I'm hoping is on the board when we're on the clock because he's worth more to us as a commodity to market our pick than he is as a player on our team, being that we pick right ahead of Tampa who would be chomping at the bit to get their hands on him).
     
  5. matilack

    matilack Take A Knee McCree!!!

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    On Smith....put it this way, I'd rather see us shock the room by taking Jabaal Sheard at 18 than waste a pick on Aldon Smith. At least I see some Woodley esc' talent and relentless effort there.....albeit some huge character concerns. Smith would be hugely mis-cast in a 3-4.


    What do you think of Brooks Reed? Dude is gaining hype.
     
  6. RM24

    RM24 BoltTalker

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    Just get me the next Merriman without the off the field drama, injuries and roids, whoever that is. :D
     
  7. AnteaterCharger

    AnteaterCharger Calibrating Bolttalk, Podcast by Podcast Staff Member Super Moderator Podcaster

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    with or without ketchup?

    I'd rather get Sheard over Smith; I question Smith's actual skills and his talent, wondering if he's a one hit wonder, would prefer Ayers or Kerrigan over him
     
  8. RipTheJacker

    RipTheJacker Well-Known Member

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    You guys are crazy. Aldon Smith is one of the best pass rushers in this draft, and would be a great pick at 18. The guy was hurt this year, but if you watched his games as a freshmen, he was one of the best pass rushers in the country. Also, he only 20 years old, so he still has alot of potential to get better. The guy already has great size, but considering hes only like 10% body fat at 265lbs, he could actually get bigger if need be.

    If hes there at 18, AJ would have to very strongly consider him. BUT with all the talk about an OLB by Acee this offseason, its pretty obvious that we arent looking for a OLB until atleast the middle rounds, so this is all mute. The only way Smith gets drafted here is if all the other guys AJ is really after get picked before 18 and smith is just heads and shoulders above everyone else
     
  9. matilack

    matilack Take A Knee McCree!!!

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    You're thinking about the raw product more than the football player. I see a guy who has some huge red flags as a guy who could just end up fading in the NFL.

    His terrible posture and high center of gravity could either be laziness or his natural running style...either way its bad. I don't see an explosive first step, I don't see relentless pursuit of the ball, I see looong heavy strides that will make him vulnerable to cut blocks and knee injuries...etc.

    I want no part of Aldon Smith, especially not in the 3-4 defense. He's a guy I'd scratch off my board for the first 3 rounds and consider a young development project with some upside in later rounds.
     
  10. The LBC

    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    I tend to agree. I have the same concerns with Smith that I had with Jason Pierre-Paul last year, though Smith has more than just one year of production. He still lacks pro strength and in order to gain that, particularly given his low body-fat percentage, he's likely got 15 pounds to put on. And as is his change of direction skills are questionable, how are they going to be affected with an extra 10-15 pounds on his frame? He has a good initial punch, but his explosion is still more projection than it is actually demonstration. For as athletic as he is he should have great burst and explosion, but it hasn't shown up with any kind of consistency yet.

    My take is this... no matter the potential, he's a project and more so than most 3-4 OLB prospects in this draft; and I'm not a fan of spending a Top 20 pick on a guy who is very likely a year-or-more out from being a 3-down player. I also hate, and I mean HATE, his extreme youth. Some people love it because of the potential but the fact remains that particularly among DL prospects most of the guys that come out really early never maximize their potential because they're playing catch-up their entire rookie contract. And why is that? Because they're coming in with less years of physical maturation and development than those players that were 4 and 5-year collegians. I'm not sure the comparison is quite this drastic, but I look at Aldon Smith and I see way too much of Jarvis Moss.

    As for Brooks Reed, the Clay Matthews comparisons are getting a little out of control. The comparisons started because Reed had the best 10 yard split of any of the DE/OLB prospects at the combine (1.54), but Matthews' 10-y split was sub 1.5, and yes that 5 hundredths of a second do make a difference. I still don't quite see him as the low 1st round grade I see him getting projected as in some mocks. He's got very solid high-to-mid 2nd round stock. I do like him a lot, but as I said comparing him to Clay is extreme.

    I place a lot of value in the Kirwin Explosion Index (KEI) when evaluating OLB prospects; that's Bench + Vertical + Broad Jump = X, where X > 70. You combine those numbers along with 10-yard splits and 3-cone numbers (the coveted benchmark is sub 7.0s) and it gives you a pretty good indication of how good a pass rusher a player ought to be. It's definitely not a be-all/end-all but it's certainly an effective tool, as the vast majority of the players that have enjoyed a high degree of consistent success as 3-4 OLB's have scored successfully in those respects. (You do have to consider and weigh a bit more in terms of pure explosion if say two guys have comparable numbers - which Von Miller and Robert Quinn do, for example - that one is doing it while carrying 20 lbs more weight than the other.)

    Clay's KEI was 78.5 with a 1.49 sec 10-ys and a 6.9 sec 3-cone.
    Reed's KEI is 69.9 with a 1.54 sec 10-ys and a 7.11 sec 3-cone; translates to being very near Clay's explosiveness but not on par with his athleticism.
    Aldon Smith's KEI is 63.83 with a 1.66 sec 10-ys and a 7.19 sec 3-cone; that rings RDE to me - Acho has a better KEI score than Smith does, Sheard's is inconclusive because I can't find a bench number anywhere (he's likely below 60 though since he'd need 30 reps to hit a sum of 70) but his 10-ys is passable and his 3-cone is OK not great.
     
  11. RM24

    RM24 BoltTalker

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    LBC, that's great info man. Better than what I've seen from some Sportswriters! Good stuff.
     
  12. The LBC

    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    I won't speak for all sports writers but a fair portion of them have this knowledge they just don't really throw it out there that much because - let's face it - the average NFL fan reader doesn't understand it, and when you start throwing a ton of numbers and statistics in front of them their attention span starts to fade. And the media's first and foremost function (at least these days) is as a business - which means selling ads, posting high ratings and view/readership, and raking in what cash they can. It's sad, but it effectively means dumbing down the "basic package," and figuring that those that really are gung ho will pay for "premium" (i.e. ESPN insider, Scouts Inc Insider, etcetera).

    I came upon these due to following Floyd Reese (former Tennessee GM, current Patriots personnel "consultant") two years ago when he was one of the draft analysts for a network. I guarantee you Mike Mayock has knowledge - and likely places a fair amount of value - in these indexes and measurements... because actual team scouts do. In a sense, I get the feeling it's why Mayock has kept the continued stance that prevents him from pimping Aldon Smith as a 3-4 OLB. For the record, the only thing holding Justin Houston back from bona fide 1st round status is bad tape - which I can guarantee at least one team will be willing to overlook because there's always at least one - is his 10-yard split. 1.62 isn't great, but everything else about his workouts suggests that he should project well as a rush LB (sub-7.0 3-cone, KEI score of 77, prototypical height/weight/hand-size, above average shuttle time).

    A couple other guys to watch in late rounds as they have at least the floor of Frank Zombo (who Green Bay managed to sign as a UDFA and who ended up as at worst a serviceable rotational starter at OLB... and had a positive KEI score):

    Bruce Miller (UCF) - Short and thus probably limited to weak-side detail as a result, but he's got a 3-cone barely in excess of 7 seconds, his KEI is 76. No one is going to mistake him for a starter because he doesn't have the elite burst (1.65 10-yard split which is worse than some of the ILB's), but as a depth/spot-starter you could do worse if you're rolling the dice in the later rounds.

    Cheta Ozougwu (Rice) - Another guy with a similar build to Miller - and in need of a pro caliber weight training program - but with tools to build with. 71 KEI score, a 3-cone only a few hundredths over 7 seconds, good-not-great shuttle, and ditto on his 10-ys. Deceptive upper body strength, particularly for his size, which lends itself to shedding blocks.

    Ryan Winterswyk (Boise State) - I wouldn't touch him till the 7th round, because he appears to lack quick twitch (the poor 10-ys in spite of otherwise solid timed speeds in other drills is pretty indicative of that), but if he hits the weight room (and he needs to) and bolsters his upper body strength, he could prove to be a quality utility back-up particularly at SOLB - i.e. perimeter run defender.

    Gabe Miller (Oregon State) - My own personal sleeper; He was, on record, the fastest DE in the Pac-10 last season with straight-line speed on par with Robert Quinn (I'm not kidding, he's been timed multiple times in the sub 4.65's and a sub 4.6's once). 6'3", 250 lbs. KEI score of nearly 80 (78.5). Sub-7.0s 3-cone. Flat out great shuttle time (4.12; only 6 hundredths of a second off Von Miller's shuttle... and better than Clay Matthews'). Above average (1.56s) 10-yard split. He's a converted TE, so his hands are well above average. I'm honestly surprised he's not gaining more steam than he is right now; and I'd spend a late round pick on him in a heartbeat.
     

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