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Chargers 2013 Mock Draft

Discussion in 'NFL Draft' started by AnteaterCharger, Dec 7, 2012.

  1. AnteaterCharger

    AnteaterCharger Calibrating Bolttalk, Podcast by Podcast Staff Member Super Moderator Podcaster

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    I'm going to operate under the assumption that:
    1) we are drafting 6th
    2) that Philly is ahead of us and has selected Luke Joeckel from Texas A&M
    3) That we didn't get a tackle in FA

    First Round: Taylor Lewan OT Michigan
    I'm tempted to go Chance Warmack from Alabama because I think he's as good as DeCastro but we desperately need a tackle in the worst way. Lewan is a big tough strong Michigan tackle who can lock down that spot for the next few years

    Second Round: Desmond Trufant CB Washington
    Brother of Marcus Trufant he has speed to spare (something the Chargers desperately need at CB), great instincts & solid tackling skills

    Third Round: DJ Fluker OT Alabama
    I have a big time man crush on this guy - he's a fantastic right tackle in terms of sheer power and mass. He's a major improvement in all facets from Jeromey Clary

    Fourth Round: Leon McFadden CB San Diego State
    He could very well be gone in the third but I'm doubling down on corners to make sure we get this fixed. Smaller than other corners but a ball hawk with good speed.

    Fifth Round: Lane Taylor RG Oklahoma State
    Big wide body with good mobility, needs help on his footwork but I look at this guy as Vasquez done right; big powerful, can move around well to pull and has a fierce demeanor.

    Sixth Round: Quninton Patton WR Louisiana Tech
    This is a guy who is good at everything but not great at anything, but his attitude, his work ethic and his skill tree suggest he could be something special with coaching.

    Seventh Round:Either a QB or a RB
    I won't pretend to act like I know enough about very late round players at either position so pick your poison

    I'll add this though real quick, let's assume we manage to sign a good LT (Jake Long or Branden Albert) then my draft would be a little diferent; I'd consider strongly taking Chance Warmack OG Alabama in the first, probably leave Trufant where he is, maybe go with Fluker or take a chance on Brennan Williams in the fourth round
     
  2. SuperCharger92

    SuperCharger92 BoltTalker

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    DJ Fluker was beat by Quanterus Smith of Western Kentucky for 2 sacks. He is probably one of the best run blocking OL in the country, but his pass blocking is scary, and seeing how Bama doesn't throw the ball a lot, he doesn't have much experience there. 335 is a lot of weight at tackle, I heard he might be a guard in the NFL but who knows.

    CBS has a 7th round-FA grade on Lane Taylor as well.

    I have my doubts about Lewan, but from what I heard this kid is basically Dielman mean at the tackle position. He has committed needless penalties and needs to cut that out, but also needs help with his footwork.

    I think Leon McFadden is a solid pick in the 4th. Good value, will become a better player as well. I think taking a CB in the 2nd round that won't start in 2013 holds no value. Quandre Diggs and Bradley Roby will be juniors for-going their senior year's because they will most likely be Top-20 picks. It's crucial we get one of those guys.

    I still believe we need a RB with the top 4 picks. Ronnie Brown might be retiring. And Mathews, who is great when we actually have an OL, has missed at least a game or more the last 3 seasons. We need a guy who can come in and make a difference. I don't want to hang my hat on Jackie Battle or Curtis Brinkley, we need a Kenjon Barner, Eddie Lacy, Andre Ellington, Mike Gillislee, Mike Dwyer, etc.

    Look at Baltimore, you'd think with Ray Rice they'd be set at RB position and attack other areas of need in last years draft, but they ended trading up and taking Bernard Pierce in the 3rd round. He's had a fine year running the ball as a rookie.
     
  3. AnteaterCharger

    AnteaterCharger Calibrating Bolttalk, Podcast by Podcast Staff Member Super Moderator Podcaster

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    I've heard stories that people suggest he could be moved to guard, I still think he could be amazing as a tackle but he could be even more ridiculous as a guard. If we get Albert I'd love to get both Fluker and Warmack and bring them in as guard.

    Footwork is correctable, attitude can be harnessed, but his talent and his attitude can't be denied.

    You don't think Trufant will be a starter? Think he's a second round PAC CB along with Proyer who could be very good

    I agree to an extent but I'd sooner see what Mathews could do with a revamped OL, same with Rivers, and with an actual commitment to run him and run him hard. Something they've never done before. I'm not against selecting a running back somewhere but compared to OL and CB its a lower priority.
     
  4. Ikeman83

    Ikeman83 Werter Pöbel

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    I don't think there's a point to selecting a RB before the 3rd day. Just be smart and select (or sign as UDFAs) backs built like Tolbert and coach them to understand that they aren't Barry Sanders.

    I like the positions you selected, and the "theme" of your draft, though I can't comment on the individual players. I think that we should beware of not seeing the forest for the trees with our draft priorities. I'd be interested in knowing what the talent level of the tackles at the top of the 2nd is in this draft. It seems to me that this draft heavily favors defense. Even though our line is a nightmare, it would be counter to our long term interests to take a lesser player at LT if a significantly better player is available at NT, LB, or CB.

    I really don't know what to think about this tackle class. I'd love to see a film break down on each of these guys covering what they do well, what they do poorly, discussing how coachable their weaknesses are, how adaptable they are to different blocking schemes, and maybe comparing them to current or past NFL players.

    I think that if Joeckel is off the board (or maybe if he's still on the board because we've sucked our way to a draft spot higher than 6) that we might want to entertain trade offers and move back a few spots to where no matter what, one of the guys we want is still available. Straight up stealing a 2nd round pick strikes me as a great way to improve our team.
     
  5. Ikeman83

    Ikeman83 Werter Pöbel

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    One thing I'm really curious about is why we don't go after RBs who fit the "cheap" RB mold. I know that everyone wants the explosive feature back, but is that what the team really needs? If we want to run an offense built around big play receivers, don't we just need a RB who's good for a screen or getting us 4 yards consistently to pair with Mathews? If Mathews is going to be our explosive back, it seems silly to pair him with a guy with the same skill set. Tolbert was a perfect compliment to Mathews, except that he would run into the backs of our linemen, and then decide to reverse field and get tackled for a 5 yd loss and/or get stripped.
     
  6. Moses

    Moses Yeah Buddy!

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    There are a few decent free agent RBs that could be a #2 back here. Reggie Bush, Mendenhall, Felix Jones, Hillis, Shonn Greene, to name just a few.
     
  7. Ikeman83

    Ikeman83 Werter Pöbel

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    Did Bush sign a 2 year deal with Miami, or are you thinking that he was cut? Jones, Hillis, and Greene are all either on the wrong side of their careers or have never had a good career. I'm not really sure what Mendenhall's contract status is, but I'm not sure that he'd be better than a an undrafted rookie FA, which was what I was talking about in the post you quoted.
     
  8. SuperCharger92

    SuperCharger92 BoltTalker

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    I wouldn't be opposed to those two, if there playing Guard. But that would put us 4 deep at guard, with Warmack, Fluker, Vasquez, and Troutman, not to forget Dombrowski. We need pure tackles, whether it's Joeckel, Fisher, Lewan or Matthews.

    Well I guess it all depends on who the coach is. Cromartie and Cason were 1st round picks and didn't start until after their rookie years. And look at Wright and Gilchrist currently, 2nd and 3rd rounders who at best are playing nickel and 3-deep schemes.

    Taking that mentality that has been used here, we prefer players with experience rather than players with better talent. Trufant probably won't start over a vet corner we'll sign in FA, or Wright or Gilchrist. So to pick up a guy like McFadden, who's stock will rise and probably end up as a high 3rd rounder, late 2nd rounder, cause I think he's that good.

    And I really don't see what the point is of picking up a RB in the 6-7th rounds and UDFA's. Those are developmental players. Todman was picked last year, he was in Minnesota, and now Jacksonville. Baker was picked this year and can't even get off the practice squad. Brinkley was picked up as an UDFA, he's gone now. So I think picking a top 100-150 prospect in this draft, at the running back position would be very beneficial for us even in his rookie year, whoever it is.
     
  9. Ikeman83

    Ikeman83 Werter Pöbel

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    Here's why you draft RBs in the late rounds, or sign UDFAs.

    http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/rushing/sort/rushingYards/year/2012/seasontype/2

    1. Adrian Peterson, 1st round
    2. Marshawn Lynch, 1st round
    3a. Doug Martin, 1st round
    3b. Alfred Morris, 6th round
    5. Arian Foster, UDFA
    6. Jamaal Charles, 3rd round
    7. Stevan Ridley, 3rd round
    8. Chris Johnson, 1st round
    9. Frank Gore, 3rd round
    10. CJ Spiller, 1st round

    There's nothing developmental about the 3rd leading rusher in the NFL. Looking at last season, there was nothing developmental about DeMarco Murray.

    Of those backs, only Lynch (333) and Foster (377) are on pace for 320+ touches. the rest are basically on pace for between 266 and 300 (Spiller is an extreme outlier). What does that mean? That these players touch the ball on 1/3 of all offensive snaps or less. Why draft a player highly when he's going to impact your game to such a small degree? 3-down defensive starters routinely get double and triple that number of snaps. Offensive linemen get 60 snaps a game if they're starters. Moreover, these are the players most impacted by injury.

    In conclusion, you can get quality backs who run hard without eating the opportunity cost of spending a draft pick, while investing your draft picks into positions which have a greater return on investment. Further, behind an elite offensive line, an average running back looks amazing, however, behind a below average line, even an explosive playmaker can be completely negated (see Mathews). The rules have basically moved RBs to the bottom of the pile in terms of value relative to price paid in the draft.
     
  10. SuperCharger92

    SuperCharger92 BoltTalker

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    Alfred Morris fumbled 16 times at Florida Atlantic. Florida Atlantic itself isn't a stop NFL scouts make annually either. He was also considered a full back by most scouts. And his combine proved it with a poor 40. Shanahan does well evaluating late round RB's though.

    Arian Foster, we all know his story. Fumbling issues in colleges forced him to split carries. Poor attitude and a really bad combine, like Morris.

    So besides those two, your making my point that I want a running back drafted with our first 4 picks. Whether it's round 2, 3, or 4. I don't care. Offensive Line is first though. But, your still not understanding the point of drafting a running back with the top 4 picks. Brown will be gone, Battle will most likely be gone, which leaves us with Mathews and Baker. We need a sufficient back up to Mathews. The NFL has become a 2 back league. And the fact Mathews has missed a game or more since coming into the league, I'd like a good back up. Like we had with Turner & Tomlinson.
     
  11. Ikeman83

    Ikeman83 Werter Pöbel

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    Look at the next 10 RBs, and the next 10.

    A first round RB is just as likely to be the 30th overall rusher as the 1st. There's no reason to draft a RB in the 1st or 2nd round. It's a waste of a draft pick. It's still a waste in the 3rd or 4th unless your team is set at literally every other position on the field, and the guy you'd be picking is a massive upgrade to your current roster (unlikely).

    RBs are a dime a dozen, and there's no reason what so ever to invest in developing them and signing them to big contracts. Get a good enough O-line, and you can run anyone you want behind it. You keep one older vet RB on the roster who can pass block well and run for a few yards on a draw or screen.

    Formula for NFL success on offense is pretty clear. Elite QB, Good-Great OL, Elite TE, average WRs and RBs.

    Drafting a RB highly is a one-way ticket to one of those areas being underdeveloped (more if you're a moron like Smitty and trade up to get a RB in the 1st).
     
  12. matilack

    matilack #therealagent47

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    Like where this is going, but I have 2 issues...

    1. Not a Fluker fan personally, I think he's going to end up another Clary type, just struggles too much with speed rushers.

    2. No reason to spend any resources on WRs this year. Take a flyer on a 6th round RB who could possibly end up backing up RM, or a very talented CB who may have gotten caught doing something illegal once or twice and hurt his draft stock (wink wink), but we are dead set at WR IMO.

    No problem with Lewan although I prefer Fisher.
    Like Trufant a lot, its been a long time since we had a CB who could be defined as more "savvy" than physical.
     
  13. Bolts4lyfe

    Bolts4lyfe BoltTalker

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    Bolds are the ones I completely agree on, not sure on Trufant (only because I haven't seen much on him) I would also love to see us get an ILB like Shayne Skov, or an OLB who may have fallen out of the 1st or Brandon Jenkins (who may have fallen due to injury)
     
  14. Ikeman83

    Ikeman83 Werter Pöbel

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    you can kiss that assumption that we're drafting 6th goodbye.
     
  15. matilack

    matilack #therealagent47

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    No kidding, and we play 3 more cupcakes so 5-11 is unlikely.
     
  16. Bolts4lyfe

    Bolts4lyfe BoltTalker

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    It would be cool if the Chargers brought in Marcus in FA and drafted Desmond. Having the brothers play together
     
  17. SuperCharger92

    SuperCharger92 BoltTalker

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    I guess I'll wait til the Bowl games are over to get another mock draft in.. But I'd like to see this now,

    1. OT
    2. OLB
    3. CB
    4. RB
    5. DL
    6. OT
    7. OG

    All depending in what we do in FA. I think we will sign a top tackle - Clady, Long, Vollmer, Albert, if they even hit the market. But, first need to file grievance on Gaither and wave him good bye. Don't want to take the cap hit, and don't want us to be limited in FA when the market is at best. The fact Gaither hasn't showed his face since being placed on IR really bothers me. Guy is could care less, he got his contract.

    I think Gilchrist has done a fine job at nickel CB, but we need an improvement there. Kyle Arrington, Chris Owens, Brice McCain and Glover Quinn have all played well in the nickel CB. We of course need a CB1. We can draft a potential CB1 and let him develop his first year, and get a top corner in next year's draft, ex. Quandre Diggs/Bradley Roby. Signing a vet CB is key, Marcus Trufant, Brent Grimes, Tracy Porter, Chris Houston, Mike Jenkins, Stanford Routt, Cedric Griffin, etc. Plenty of options there.

    Even if we bring back Barnes at OLB, we need another rotational guy..
     
  18. Ikeman83

    Ikeman83 Werter Pöbel

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    SP is probably gone, and so is English (lol). That leaves us T-Rex and Johnson. We'd basically need to resign Barnes, then draft or FA sign another 2 OLB if we want to have a strong rotation and any depth.
     
  19. Bolts4lyfe

    Bolts4lyfe BoltTalker

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    I think SP may come at a cheaper price, plus I think he loves living and playing in San Diego too much to walk. Wheres as Barnes has never seen that big contract and may overprice himself. Just my thought
     
  20. Ikeman83

    Ikeman83 Werter Pöbel

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    Maybe, but if we retain 1, and lose the other, we still need to bring in 2 legitimate rotational guys, either in the form of rookies or journeymen.

    Also, and more to the point of your original post, I would put a CB ahead of OLB at this point. We're probably picking 20th, and I'd put more trust in a CB taken #50 and an OLB taken at #82 than the other way around, assuming we want both of them to be contributors in 2013.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  21. SuperCharger92

    SuperCharger92 BoltTalker

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    I don't think Barnes will overprice himself. Phillips, I can see though. He's an east coast guy, he might want to move closer to home, but you never know. We should get a discount from him though cause he has gottent he big contract.

    No way Barnes is gonna find a big contract either. Just cause he had 1 - 11 sack year won't justify anything he has done in previous years. He's had only 4 through 11 games, and had 1 or 2 before the Baltimore game.

    I think OLB is more important than CB. Without pressure, your CB's get exposed cause the QB has all day to throw. We witnessed it last year. You can make average corners look good with great pass rushing. That's what we can build with a quality OLB in the 2nd, have Ingram, Johnson, and Barnes/Phillips, then a front line of Liuget, Franklin, Garay, Thomas, Reyes, and Martin, is dangerous.

    Also anybody notice how good Demorrio Williams looks? He's really impressed me since Butler went down.

    And Larry English has looked decent. He doesn't have sacks, but he's gotten pressure on the QB the last few games I've seen, and forced the QB to move out of the pocket a few times.
     
  22. Ikeman83

    Ikeman83 Werter Pöbel

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    True, but we don't even have average corners.
     
  23. AnteaterCharger

    AnteaterCharger Calibrating Bolttalk, Podcast by Podcast Staff Member Super Moderator Podcaster

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    I think we have a single question mark in Wright, a guy with maybe #2 ceiling in Gilchrist and someone on the PS. I'm liking what I'm seeing out of Wright and Gilchrist so far but they remain question marks. We need to add someone for sure, whether in FA or the draft. Having said that, we need to bleepin CARPET BOMB our OL even more than we need a corner
     
  24. The LBC

    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    Again... what we need and what we can likely expect are probably significantly different.

    Unless there's an injury out clause to Gaither's contract, I don't care how little trust we as the fans have in him, there's too much money committed to him on the salary cap ledger over the next 1-2 years for the team to spend two of its first 3 picks on the OT position - and they very likely won't. More likely we see a swing tackle with LT-upside drafted in one of the first two rounds, played at RT for 2013 and possibly 2014 and then moved to replace Gaither. Lewan fits that bill (though I still believe it's Dean that has the aversion to drafting OL in the 1st, as the trend well precedes AJ or anyone he has ties to), as do Eric Fisher, Lane Johnson, and maybe Jake Matthews (I'm reserving judgment until I see him in lateral agility drills at the combine, because his tape still leaves me with question marks as to whether he can man the blind-side).

    Depending on how the board falls, I realize that our OL looks wretched right now, but I wouldn't be passing on the likes of Demontre Moore (who is a Von Miller clone) or Bjoern Werner (Ryan Kerrigan clone with, my opinion, a higher ceiling). Depending on how well he tests out at the combine, I'm not entirely opposed to Dion Jordan (though I'd prefer to trade a bit further back while still staying in the Top 12-15 to ensure being able to snag either him while having one of the CB's or Fisher as a safety net) who is just a straight ultra-athletic multi-tool defender (he's built like a LB and has lined up effectively as a corner... essentially you've got the kind of OLB who can rush the passer AND also drop into coverage on TE's effectively that's needed to defeat the spread-heavy offenses of the Packers/Saints/Pats). Heck, the only reason I'd steer clear of a dynamic pass-rusher like Jarvis Jones is because he has a limited lifespan in the league, considering he has spinal stenosis (same degenerative condition McNiell had/has) and our medical staff is among the worst in the league.

    Being intentional pessimistic about how the board falls to us, I'd project/hope for something like the following:
    Rd. 1: Bjoern Werner, OLB FSU
    Rd. 2: Lane Johnson, OT Oklahoma (at the moment I expect Fisher to go prior to Johnson, but these two could easily flipflop)
    Rd. 3: Bennett Jackson, CB Notre Dame/Blidi Wreh-Wilson, CB Connecticut (I know someone's going to lay into me on BWW being from UConn, but all I can say is watch tape... the guy has lockdown potential; Jackson's just a guy I've really taken a shine too who has surpasses expectations and that's always going to draw my attention)
    Rd. 4: Hugh Thornton, OG Illinois (Feet and heavy hands of a tackle, arms of a guard... translation: Prime LG prospect with play-early potential)
    Rd. 5: Knile Davis, RB Arkansas (Davis could well end up a 6th round guy, but I said I'm being purposely pessimistic in projections of the order here)
    Rd. 6: Bruce Taylor, ILB Va Tech (No, not just a shout-out for Buck; Taylor is horribly underrated and were it not for a right foot injury painting some legitimate question marks on his future he'd be a Day 2 lock prospect. Low risk, high reward type guy whose skill set pairs very well with Butler)
    Rd. 7: Sanders Commings, CB/S Georgia
     
  25. Ikeman83

    Ikeman83 Werter Pöbel

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    Since you're giving us a top 10 pick, are you assuming that we lose out?
     
  26. The LBC

    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    I'm figuring one win, but the thing is that one win comes against a team that's already ahead of us in the order by more than just -1 in the win column. I really don't think there's going to be a lot more shifting of teams into the Top 10 from what there is now - based on schedule primarily, just a decent amount of jockeying around within that Top 10. The Saints, Dolphins, and Lions are all good for at least one more win, possibly 2. Barring some monumental cluster---- the Jets will take themselves out of contention for a Top 10 pick this weekend with a win over the Titans (and cement Tennessee in for one as well).

    What we've got in these last couple weeks is a lot of co-mingling among the bottom 1/3 teams; this weekend alone one of Jags/Phins, Raiders/Chiefs, Cards/Lions all come out with wins... and you lump us/Panthers in there as well. Week 16, one among the Raiders/Panthers adds a win to their total, while we're the only other team that doesn't look absolutely teed up to take a loss aside from maybe Miami who I wouldn't be shocked to see beat Buffalo at home. Week 17
     
  27. Bolts4lyfe

    Bolts4lyfe BoltTalker

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    I'm calling it now We're picking 9 Which Im all for. Depending how the draft plays out it'll open up scenarios to grab Taylor Lewan, Dee Milliner, Damontre Moore, Bjoern Werner. or trade back and still get Mathews Fisher or Warmack
     
  28. Ikeman83

    Ikeman83 Werter Pöbel

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    Today's horribleness has me strangely thinking that we might not be a mortal lock to be outside the top 5.
     
  29. AnteaterCharger

    AnteaterCharger Calibrating Bolttalk, Podcast by Podcast Staff Member Super Moderator Podcaster

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    Can't see us beating the Jets even as pathetic as they are, Raiders I think we will beat
     
  30. Ikeman83

    Ikeman83 Werter Pöbel

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    I think that if we lose to both we'll have a strong chance at the 5, and for sure get the 6. I think that if we beat the Raiders we'll be outside of the top 10.
     

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