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Coin toss

Discussion in 'Chargers Fan Forum' started by Scott the Rock, Nov 14, 2010.

  1. Scott the Rock

    Scott the Rock BoltTalker

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    It never fails to make me just laugh. I'm watching the Rams vs. 49's and they just flipped the coin. in my opinion the coin toss is the most ridiculous thing in any professional sport. I have heard all the arguments defending the rule, play D and all that crap. The fact of the matter is 99% of the coin toss winners chose the ball. Since when should luck be a major deciding factor in a game that guys just played their asses off for? It would be better if they played rock paper scissors! It's time to change the rule.
     
  2. HollywoodLeo

    HollywoodLeo Well-Known Member

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    The "play defense" argument is crap because the team that wins the toss doesn't have to play defense so long as they get in field goal range.
     
  3. Scott the Rock

    Scott the Rock BoltTalker

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    Exactly. Just ask Tom Brady about getting in field goal range.
     
  4. SDRaiderH8er

    SDRaiderH8er Well-Known Member

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    then play to win the game during regulation play, that way you dont have to worry about the coin flip.
     
  5. HollywoodLeo

    HollywoodLeo Well-Known Member

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    This completely ignores the issue.

    Ties at the end of regulation happen all the time.

    We can't ignore an issue that puts the game on the decision of a coin toss just because they "should have" won it in regulation.
     
  6. SDRaiderH8er

    SDRaiderH8er Well-Known Member

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    why not go for 2 points after that last touchdown?
     
  7. ChargerRay

    ChargerRay #FireMcCoy #FirePagano Staff Member Super Moderator Podcaster

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    The only fair way to settle an OT game is to play an entire 5th qtr. and whoever is ahead and the end wins. Otherwise it ends with a tie.
     
  8. HollywoodLeo

    HollywoodLeo Well-Known Member

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    Because you look like the laughing stock of the league if you miss it.
     
  9. SDRaiderH8er

    SDRaiderH8er Well-Known Member

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    so now your playing for a tie and now your fate rests on a coin flip instead of playing for the win.
     
  10. HollywoodLeo

    HollywoodLeo Well-Known Member

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    Better to put your fate on the cointoss than to make a bone-headed decision like that.
     
  11. SDRaiderH8er

    SDRaiderH8er Well-Known Member

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    and it goes back to my original statement, play to win in regulation, and dont worry about the coin flip.
     
  12. HollywoodLeo

    HollywoodLeo Well-Known Member

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    NFL coaches who get paid to make these decisions kick the extra point 999 times out of 1000.
     
  13. SDRaiderH8er

    SDRaiderH8er Well-Known Member

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    and then let the fans complain about how they got ripped off at the coin flip to start overtime, then they could not stop the other team as they drove the field for the winning score in overtime.
     
  14. HollywoodLeo

    HollywoodLeo Well-Known Member

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    So, all this discussion was just to lead to that? Why didn't you just come out and say it?

    Again, it's correct that the team should have stopped them but that still ignores the fact that the other team wasn't even required to stop them when they were handed the ball thanks to a flip of the coin.

    It's easy to say "whatever, just stop them" but that doesn't negate the unfair advantage that's given at the flip of the coin.
     
  15. Scott the Rock

    Scott the Rock BoltTalker

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    Wrong Leo. It's 999.9% of the time
     
  16. HollywoodLeo

    HollywoodLeo Well-Known Member

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    You mean 99.99? :lol:
     
  17. Scott the Rock

    Scott the Rock BoltTalker

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    I have said this before and it was kind of stupid but I liked it better than the flip. Remember the XFL? Remember how they decided who got the ball? They put the ball at 50 yard line. The fastest guy from each team was placed 20 yards away and at the whistle who ever got the ball got the ball. Silly, but at least it was a competition and not luck. The reason I really hate the coin toss overtime rule is that I remember more games decided on the one possession VS. the other. How hard would it be for them to play a shorter fifth quarter? Is it TV? I think most people think it's pretty dumb
     
  18. Scott the Rock

    Scott the Rock BoltTalker

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    uuuuh...the .9% is the brain fart that the coach has before reality slaps his thought process
     
  19. SDRaiderH8er

    SDRaiderH8er Well-Known Member

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    then play to win the game in regulation!
     
  20. setanta74

    setanta74 Well-Known Member

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  21. Concudan

    Concudan Caffeinated Commando

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    All the whining and gnashing of teeth, does anyone have a fair way to start over time? May I remind the pundits out there that a regulation game is started with a coin toss to see who is to get the option of getting the ball or defering. Overtime is by default a start of a new game. Thus the coin toss.

    So Scott, how do you WANT the games to be started? Visitors get the ball? Home Team? You mention rock paper scissors, but I think I would stick with the coin toss.

    So in the frustration over an age old tradition, has any of you stopped to think of a fair alternative? I believe the answer to that would be no, because most of what I saw is a desire to argue about 'totally ignoring the facts' as if there are any here to not ignore.
     
  22. Trumpet_Man

    Trumpet_Man Well-Known Member

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    Advanced NFL Stats: Why NFL Overtime Needs To Change

    Feb 1, 2010
    Why NFL Overtime Needs To Change

    First, some facts.

    Over the past decade, there were 158 OT games, including playoff games. There were 2 ties, and there was 1 game in which the coin flip winner chose to defend a side of the field rather than choosing to receive. (They lost.)

    In 96 of the 158 OTs, or 61%, the coin flip winner won the game.

    In 58 of the 158 OTs, or 37%, the coin flip winner won on their first possession while the loser never touched the ball. This includes 2 of the last 3 OT games in the playoffs.

    Don’t be fooled by other numbers. In 2009 there happened to be only 13 OT games, and the coin flip winner won 7 (54%). In 6 of the 13 (46%), the loser never touched the ball. The sample size for any single year is too small for a reasonable estimate of the true numbers.

    Also, don’t be tricked by people that say “only 61%.” If we agree 50% would be the fairest rate, you might think 61% isn’t very far from 50%. But that’s not the right way to look at it. As I wrote in my recent NY Times post, the correct comparison is 61% vs. 39%, the respective winning percentages of the coin flip winner and loser. That’s a big advantage--over 3:2. Another way to think of it is that the coin flip winner will win half again more often than the coin flip loser.

    I've written previously that I favor a simple solution, which I first heard from economist David Romer: Return the kickoff line to the 35 for the OT kickoff. This is a modest change that will greatly increase touchbacks, forcing offenses to start at the 20. And in OT, a 1st down on the 20 yd-line (and not the 15 as previously thought) appears to be the break-even point between where the team on offense and the team on defense are equally likely to score next. I'd guess that teams may tend to play "tighter" in OT than in regulation, and this is why the break-even point becomes the 20.

    The graph below plots OT Win Probability (WP) by 1st down field position. In OT, with the rare exception of the final meaningful possession in an eventual tie, time is not a significant factor.

    The data is a little noisy, but the unscientific fat red crayon technique makes it fairly clear that the 0.50 WP line intersects at a team's own 20 or so. The 0.61 WP line, which represents the current expected winning percentage of the coin flip winner, intercepts the red line at about the 33-yard line, which is where the average return ends up (including penalties and TD returns).

    Moving the kickoff line back to the 35, where it was when the current OT format was instituted, might go a long way toward equalizing the chances of the coin flip winner and loser. Unfortunately, that's only half the problem. Over one third of OT games result in one team losing the game without ever touching the ball. I think that's the bigger issue to many people.

    Moving the kickoff line would reduce the likelihood that one team would never get the ball, but only slightly. I don't think we can solve that part of the problem without a rule requiring an even number of possessions. But such a solution causes a whole new problem.

    However the specifics of the even-possession rule would work, the team with the second possession would have an even bigger advantage than the coin-flip winner has now. Knowing whether or not it needs a TD, FG, or can afford to punt, the second team can adjust its strategy accordingly, using its 4th downs to move the ball when necessary. The current college OT format has this problem, which is mitigated to some degree because teams alternate 'going first' on successive rounds. Even baseball's extra innings format has the same problem to a lesser extent, but it's accepted because it's no different than the advantage the home team enjoys in a tied 9th inning. It's simply considered part of home field advantage in baseball.

    There is no perfect solution for NFL's overtime problem, but perhaps baseball's system illuminates the best path. Maybe the best we could hope for is to keep the current sudden death format, but award the first OT possession to the home team.

    With this arrangement in the playoffs, it would be easier to accept what happened to a visiting team like the Vikings. We would say, "Yeah, it stinks their offense didn't get a chance. But hey, the Saints did earn the right to the first possession by winning home field during the season." Better that a team earns a break than has it bestowed by the flip of a coin.
     
  23. SDRaiderH8er

    SDRaiderH8er Well-Known Member

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    do away with overtime. Treat each tie like a loss. Teams advance to the playoffs based on "WINS". Play to win the game and do not play for the tie!
     
  24. Trumpet_Man

    Trumpet_Man Well-Known Member

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    OR just play until a team wins. That will eliminate the gobblin game called a tie game. To me that is the easiest thing to do without changing anything.
     
  25. Scott the Rock

    Scott the Rock BoltTalker

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    I anwered that. A shorter quarter is fair.
     
  26. HollywoodLeo

    HollywoodLeo Well-Known Member

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    Wrong. Teams advance to the playoffs based on winning percentage.

    11-4-1 is a higher winning percentage than 11-5.
     
  27. Concudan

    Concudan Caffeinated Commando

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    Exactly how is a shorter quarter fair? What is it exactly you are proposing? If you hate the coin toss how are you goign to feel when the game ends in regulation time and the team that last had the ball goes in for a TD in your short quarter? Why should the team with the ball at the end of regulation be awarded the ball at the same point beyond regulation. That is not only unfair but IMHO not well thought out (or at least not well communicated) at all.
     
  28. HollywoodLeo

    HollywoodLeo Well-Known Member

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    it's a lot more fair than the current set-up because the other team can still answer back.

    I dont care about the coin toss so much as the frequent possibility that one team's offense never sees the field in OT because of the coin toss.
     
  29. Concudan

    Concudan Caffeinated Commando

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    Really?! You get all of that from the two words 'Shoter' and 'Quarter'?
     
  30. szarmes

    szarmes I am the Walrus

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    What about "slow-hand"? lol
     

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