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ESPN: Rivers Overated

Discussion in 'Chargers Fan Forum' started by Concudan, Jul 25, 2007.

  1. Concudan

    Concudan Caffeinated Commando

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    Article Link

    Quarterbacks are the subject of this week's installment of overrated and underrated players. No position in the league is more celebrated or criticized, so emotions tend to run high when putting together quarterback ratings.

    I try to take as much emotion out of the equation as possible by focusing my analysis on five main metrics: Yards per attempt, success percentage, SYPA, bad-decision percentage and weighted bad-decision percentage. These metrics cover just about every positive and negative a quarterback could bring to his team.

    As has been the case in each of the previous installments, the rankings are based on how each player's 2006 metrics compare with his reputation. Pro Bowl berths are given a lot of weight in determining the perception of a player.


    Overrated Quarterbacks
    Philip Rivers

    Rivers is a good quarterback, but I am not yet convinced he has reached the level of greatness his Pro Bowl berth would indicate.

    His performance faded after about the midway point of the 2006 season. In the first 10 games last year, Rivers' composite passer rating was 99.7. Over the last six games, the rating dropped to 77.6.

    It wasn't just his overall performance that suffered. I did a study late last year in an ESPN.com article that showed Rivers had more than a few issues when facing a blitz. In a five-game stretch from weeks 11-16, Rivers had a passer rating of 23.8 on plays when the Chargers' opponent blitzed.

    If Rivers had a long history of playing well, I might be able to overlook a late-season slump, but he has played well for only half of one season. I believe he needs to do more before being considered one of the league's great quarterbacks.

    Brett Favre
    Many of Favre's 2006 metrics were among the worst in the league. His 6.2 YPA put him in the company of Charlie Frye and Jason Campbell. His total of 18 bad decisions was tied for the fourth-most in the league, and his 62 combined interceptions and near interceptions was easily the most in the NFL, even surpassing the much-maligned Rex Grossman. Favre simply isn't anywhere near the quarterback he was even just three years ago.

    Others:
    Jon Kitna:
    Kitna gets a ton of credit for his strong leadership, but his 20 bad decisions ranked last in the league, and his 38 bad-decision points ranked next to last. Add in his nine lost fumbles last year and it is clear his turnovers and mistakes more than made up for his superb leadership skills.

    Trent Green: Green showed a lot of courage in coming back from a severe concussion last year, but his metrics after he returned were quite poor. His 6.5 YPA tied for 23rd in the league. His 60.4 success percentage was only slightly better than David Garrard's and was worse than Brad Johnson's. His 3.9 bad decision percentage was the 33rd-worst. The metrics indicate Green might not be the savior Dolphins fans are hoping he will be.


    Underrated Quarterbacks
    Marc Bulger

    I know that Bulger made the Pro Bowl last year, but I believe he still doesn't get his due as one of the NFL's best quarterbacks. His 7.5 YPA was the eighth-best in the league and his 92.9 passer rating was seventh-best. Bulger had the fourth-lowest bad-decision percentage and the fifth-lowest weighted bad-decision percentage. He also had the fifth-lowest interception/near interception percentage. That Bulger was able to post these numbers in a new offensive system, and without Mike Martz calling the plays, says a lot for his ability.

    J.P. Losman
    Losman might be the best deep ball quarterback in the NFL today. His 698 bomb passing yards were the second-most in the league. He also had the fifth-highest YPA at that depth level. It isn't just a high YPA level that makes Losman a great vertical passer. He also had zero bad decisions on his bomb passes. That total wasn't a statistical anomaly either, as Losman's 33 bomb pass throws were the fifth-most in that category. If Jason Peters can keep Losman's blindside protected this year as well as he did late last year, Losman should be able to do even better on long passes in 2007.

    Others:
    Chad Pennington: The reason Pennington qualifies for this list is that he is a much better vertical passer than people think. He ranked 15th and 12th in bomb and deep-pass YPA last year. Pennington's 9.8 YPA on deep out passes was also the seventh-highest figure in the league. These metrics prove Pennington is able to beat a defense even on the toughest passes a quarterback has to throw.

    Tony Romo: Romo was like Rivers in that his end-of-season performance tailed off, but his reputation seemed to take a much bigger hit than Rivers. This shouldn't have been the case, as Romo's end-of-season metrics were still among the best in the NFL. His 8.4 YPA was the highest in that category. Romo also had the second-highest success percentage and the highest SYPA rating.

    KC Joyner, aka The Football Scientist, is a regular contributor to ESPN Insider. His core passing metrics can be found in the ESPN Fantasy Football Magazine, which hits newsstands on June 19. A free sample of his latest release ("Scientific Football 2007") is available at his Web site.
     
  2. AnteaterCharger

    AnteaterCharger Calibrating Bolttalk, Podcast by Podcast Staff Member Super Moderator Podcaster

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    Losman is Rivers if he had a bad first year

    Rivers had stumbled at teh end of the year but that's life and he did show some improvement coming out of hte slump. I don't know about OVERRATED though ya know?
     
  3. Ride The Lightning

    Ride The Lightning Join the Dark Side, we have cookies.

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    I give Rivers a pass for 2 reasons: 1) it was only his first year starting, so were talking about starts 10-17, and 2) he doesn't have a whole lot to work with reciever wise (although they are getting there). All the other guys listed ('cept for Romo, who IMO, got worse as the season wore on) have more time starting.

    Also don't forget, our O was often the LT show, as proof by his record setting year. PR didn't have to throw many into the endzone (which would have improved his rating dramatically) when Mr. Touchdown Machine was scoring multiples per game at will.
     
  4. Yngwie77

    Yngwie77 Well-Known Member

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    Unreal! It was the guys FIRST season!!! How many QB's in the history of the NFL have had a better first season??? I bet not many. Marino...Maybe? And did he go 14-2? They can take their stats and shove em. The guy flat out wins. I mean 14-2!!! First season! C'mon what else is there. I know we had LT to take pressure off him but he made almost no big mistakes and he did lead us back in huge games against the Bengals and Seahawks so its not like he just handed the ball off while we kept our fingers crossed that he wouldnt make a game chaging mistake. 14-2 is all you need to know.
     
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  5. HeatMiser

    HeatMiser BoltTalker

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    Losman? Romo??? That article is tripe. We'll see who is the better QB in 2007 and I am very confident it won't be either of those two guys.

    There is more to being a successful QB than throwing the long ball well. Unfortunately for Losman, that is about all he does well.
    Romo's YPA is a product of the offense they run. Culpepper throws a great long ball and had very high YPAs in Minnesota. Anyone think he is a probowl QB now?
     
  6. Kev

    Kev BoltTalker

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    :)

    The results of this formula are technically valid, but the choice of factors to input made it skewed to a certain stat or stats. It's pre-biased. Besides...
    [​IMG]
    'Nuff said. :tup:
     
  7. super_deluxe

    super_deluxe World Class

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    Now THAT is ****in sweet
     
  8. Trumpet_Man

    Trumpet_Man Well-Known Member

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    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    I AM THE CHOSEN ONE - FOLLOW ME !!!! :bolt: :abq2: :helm1: :bolt2: :bow: :football:
     
  9. Concudan

    Concudan Caffeinated Commando

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    The matrix picture is kinda cool. Until it made Trumpy think bringing out his gay porn pics is ok...
     
  10. Trumpet_Man

    Trumpet_Man Well-Known Member

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    [​IMG]

    THE PROPHET SEZ:
























































































































    FU :icon_evil: :icon_twisted: :trout: :icon_finger:
     
  11. Concudan

    Concudan Caffeinated Commando

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    The profit needs to stop :drool: over Rivers' staff.
     
  12. 17Rocks

    17Rocks Well-Known Member

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  13. AnteaterCharger

    AnteaterCharger Calibrating Bolttalk, Podcast by Podcast Staff Member Super Moderator Podcaster

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    who in GODS NAME is playing Yoda???
     
  14. turbo_turtle

    turbo_turtle In Disguise

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    Yoda is being played by #43 RB of the San Diego Chargers Darren Sproles. :tup: :lol::icon_tease:
     
  15. PowderLove

    PowderLove Former Mod, Current Slacker

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    That would be Darren Sproles, I believe.
    BTW, those pictures always crack me up.:yes:
     
  16. PowderLove

    PowderLove Former Mod, Current Slacker

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    TT beat me to it!
     
  17. PhilipRivers#1

    PhilipRivers#1 BoltTalker

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  18. turbo_turtle

    turbo_turtle In Disguise

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    :icon_bow: :bow: :icon_bow:All hail the Chosen One. He will lead us to the promised lombardi land of many shiny things full of rings and trophies. :icon_bow: :bow: :icon_bow:
     
  19. Kev

    Kev BoltTalker

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    :)

    *steals-steals-steals-steals-steals-steals*

    Phew! You folks here sure remind me I need to get off my butt and learn photoshop! :lol:

    GREAT PICS! KEEP EM COMING! I got lots more room in my photobucket.;)

    :icon_rofl: :lol: :abq1: :icon_party:
     
  20. super_deluxe

    super_deluxe World Class

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    Oh man....I'm going to laugh my *** off all day, you jerks!!!
     
  21. PowderLove

    PowderLove Former Mod, Current Slacker

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    I don't just want to believe. I do believe.
     
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  22. Thread_Killer

    Thread_Killer Well-Known Member

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    Can you use your SuperMod powers to limit the number of times you can post the same picture on the forum?

    I'm thinking after like the 150th time, Trumpie needs to be cut off.

    :icon_rofl:
     
  23. Trumpet_Man

    Trumpet_Man Well-Known Member

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    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    <img src="http://img163.imageshack.us/img163/4781/brooks2vz9.jpg" alt="Image Hosted by ImageShack.us"/><br/>Shot at 2006-09-20

    SCARED SHITLESS !!! LOOK AT THE EYES ... :icon_rofl:
     
  24. Concudan

    Concudan Caffeinated Commando

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    I have no such powers.

    Go ahead, put me on ignore. You cant ignore Mods, so that will show you that I am not a Mod.
     
  25. sdchrger

    sdchrger Well-Known Member

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    Please don't quote Concudan, I have him on ignore.
     
  26. super_deluxe

    super_deluxe World Class

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    [​IMG]
    He's poopin his pants!!!!!!
     
  27. boltssbbound

    boltssbbound Well-Known Member

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    Hey, just because the pictures make you feel sexually conflicted, that doesn't mean there's anything wrong with them. Kneel at the feet of your master, Rivers, and worship his majesty.
     
  28. sdchrger

    sdchrger Well-Known Member

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    Did you just tell conc to give Philip a hummer? :icon_eek: :unsure: :no:
     
  29. Thread_Killer

    Thread_Killer Well-Known Member

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    I think Concudan lost his sense of humor along with his mod powers.

    :lol:
     
  30. sdchrger

    sdchrger Well-Known Member

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    I'd think that he had me on ignore, but he can't. :lol:
     

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