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How confident are you that the Chargers will beat the Pats?

Discussion in 'Smack Talk' started by BeerGuy, Jan 14, 2008.

  1. Grogan's neck roll

    Grogan's neck roll Banned Banned

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    Stay classy San Diego.
     
  2. bigcarson50

    bigcarson50 New Member

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    Sorry I just don't see it. And to be honest, I haven't heard anyone else say this. It is something subtle. Do they high five each other, and congratulate each other absolutely. I can't quite put my finger on it, and therefore it would be very difficult to debate this point with you (due to my own inability to put it down in words).

    I respect the heck out of how they play the game, how BB turns on convention (going for it more on fourth for instance).

    Anyways, good luck on Sunday, and bundle up if you are going to the game.
     
  3. BeerGuy

    BeerGuy BoltTalker

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    I'm comfortable with myself. Show yourself, stud, instead of hiding behind that airbrushed chick that wouldn't piss on you if you were on fire.
     
  4. PhillyChargerFan

    PhillyChargerFan New Member

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    Confidence is very SEXY :icon_rofl:

    I'm glad your comfortable you should be :icon_rofl:
     
  5. foober

    foober BoltTalker

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    Hey, I was just trying to help you out. So your not sure huh. Maybe its better not to know.

    As far as classy. YOur the fans that accept all the cheating your team does. Geez. Give it up. EIther your blindl dumb or something else. But to accept all the cheating your team has done over the years. Geez.
     
  6. PhillyChargerFan

    PhillyChargerFan New Member

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    :icon_rofl::icon_rofl:
     
  7. PhilipRivers#1

    PhilipRivers#1 BoltTalker

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    I'm 110% confident !!

    If we can beat indy we can beat the pats !!

    We just have to play brady just like we did peyton !! :tup::abq1::icon_toast::bolt:
     
  8. Grogan's neck roll

    Grogan's neck roll Banned Banned

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    Yeah, great how you're so blown away by how funny his joke is, could it be because you both made the same joke. You guys crack yourselves up don't you.

    It'll be comforting to you all that you can site ref calls, cheating, cameras, and whatever other ghosts you see in the shadows for why your team got beat, but deep down, in your heart of hearts, you'll know that your team isn't as good as the Patriots.
     
  9. foober

    foober BoltTalker

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    hey if it makes you feel any better. YOu look like a nice guy. Glad your comfortable with your situation. Lifes short. Got to be who you are and accept that. Something I think the grogan guy would have trouble with.
     
  10. PhillyChargerFan

    PhillyChargerFan New Member

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    RIGHT :unsure:

    :icon_rofl:

    who know maybe Norv is as slimy as bilicheat over there and my team is in "film" study right now :tup:
     
  11. Thumper

    Thumper WHS

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    This is a smack thread.
     
  12. foober

    foober BoltTalker

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    It is.:lol:
     
  13. Grogan's neck roll

    Grogan's neck roll Banned Banned

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    If you go back, I was talking football, PhillyChargerPh*ck has been talking smack from the jump. I was just responding to him, but I'll stop.
     
  14. PhillyChargerFan

    PhillyChargerFan New Member

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    Why the language???? :icon_eek:
     
  15. LT-Express

    LT-Express Bolttalk.com Janitor since 06' Staff Member Super Moderator

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    Ahh imagine that, you are starting to say the same sh!t the colts fans were saying....That we were inferior to your teams! Hahaha then we go into Indy, hostile crowd, a 402 yard effort from Peyton, No LT for 3/4 of the game, No Rivers in the 4th, Gates at about 40%, and the refs in their hip pocket.....Yet we still pulled out a win! I think you need to give a little more respect then you are giving but hey its okay if we beat your *** you better come eat some CRO!
     
  16. Thumper

    Thumper WHS

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    I moved this thread to the smack section, so continue. I just want smack threads off the main board. Here, I don't care.
     
  17. BeerGuy

    BeerGuy BoltTalker

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    My bad, that wasn't my intention, move it if you think it's best.

    I'll calm it down.
     
  18. PhillyChargerFan

    PhillyChargerFan New Member

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    Hold on, you sign up for a Charger forum and try to come over here and tell us how great your team is and I'm talking smack :icon_rofl:



    What color are the skies in your world???
     
  19. BeerGuy

    BeerGuy BoltTalker

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    Oops, too late, thanks.
     
  20. PhillyChargerFan

    PhillyChargerFan New Member

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    Judging from your picture your a real tyrant :icon_rofl:


    Thanks for calming down :icon_rofl:
     
  21. AnteaterCharger

    AnteaterCharger Calibrating Bolttalk, Podcast by Podcast Staff Member Super Moderator Podcaster

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    <object width="425" height="355"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/WvufFwdqMzg&rel=1"></param><param name="wmode" value="transparent"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/WvufFwdqMzg&rel=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" width="425" height="355"></embed></object>
     
  22. LT-Express

    LT-Express Bolttalk.com Janitor since 06' Staff Member Super Moderator

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    Fuggin Pats fans!
     
  23. PhillyChargerFan

    PhillyChargerFan New Member

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    What about calling me Philly :icon_banana::abq2:Ph%ck???
     
    • Like Like x 1
  24. LT-Express

    LT-Express Bolttalk.com Janitor since 06' Staff Member Super Moderator

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    Fuggin Pats fans!
     
  25. Boltzzz

    Boltzzz BoltTalker

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    100% confident, the Pats are beatable, just ask the Ravens, Eagles, Giants. True, we will have to play a very good game to beat them, but out D is playing at top level right now and I expect us to be in the game from the start, unlike most media people. Nobody gave us a chance vs the Colts and the same thing this weekend so maybe we will show them again!!!! I really hope Rivers can go though. I fully expect a very close win for us this weekend. Go Bolts :icon_toast:
     
  26. Butterfingers McCree

    Butterfingers McCree BoltTalker

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    I think if we ask all three of those teams, they will report that they lost to the Patriots.
     
  27. Buck Blincoe

    Buck Blincoe BoltTalker

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    AccuScore simulation: AFC Championship game

    By Stephen Oh, AccuScore Analyst, AccuScore.com
    January 14, 2008

    http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news;_y...-accuscore-nfl20080120017&prov=yhoo&type=lgns

    AccuScore.com has run more than 10,000 simulations for Yahoo! Sports, calculating how each team's performance changes in response to game conditions, opponent's abilities, roster moves, weather and more. Each game is simulated one play at a time and the game is replayed a minimum of 10,000 times to generate forecasted winning percentages, player statistics and a variety of game-changing scenarios. Here's AccuScore.com's analysis of the AFC Championship game.

    AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

    The Chargers pulled off the big road upset against the Colts, but things do not look good for the Chargers in New England. Even if LaDainian Tomlinson, Philip Rivers and Antonio Gates were not hurt, the Patriots would be heavy favorites at home. The Patriots are winning nearly 90 percent of simulations, converting over 53 percent of third downs. Tom Brady completes 70 percent of his passes for 333 yards and over 3 TD passes per simulation.

    Laurence Maroney is actually out-rushing LT on both a per carry and total rushing yards basis (Maroney 4.3 ypc vs. LT 4.1). For San Diego to pull off the huge upset, it needs Rivers to pass for at least 2 TDs and no interceptions. In simulation losses, Rivers averages 1 TD pass and 1.1 INTs, but in simulation wins he has a 3-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

    The Chargers' defense needs to intercept Brady twice. While San Diego managed to do that vs. Peyton Manning, the chances of Brady throwing 2 picks is under 10 percent. Look for Randy Moss to bounce back from his one-reception performance vs. the Jaguars with a huge 95 yards and at least 1 TD.

    What if LT or Rivers or both are out?

    It is blasphemous to say this, but Tomlinson's presence or absence does not have a huge impact on the outcome. Michael Turner and Darren Sproles both produced big plays vs. the Colts and Turner has been considered one of the best backup RBs in the league, if not the best. In simulations where LT is out, the Chargers won 9.5 percent of the time. With LT playing, they win 10.6 percent of the time. The team is better with LT playing, but not radically better.

    San Diego Rushing Win% Rush YD YPC TD
    W/ LT Playing 10.6% 25 98 3.9 0.55
    W/ LT Playing 9.5% 23 93 4.0 0.51
    Copyright AccuScore.com

    Likewise, Rivers' presence/absence is not having a huge impact. Billy Volek has not played much since joining the Chargers, but his career completion percentage and touchdown rate are virtually the same as Rivers'. However, Volek does throw 15 percent more interceptions. If Rivers is out, the Chargers win 9.8 percent of simulations vs 10.6 percent with Rivers. Again, the Chargers are better with Rivers, but not radically better.

    San Diego Win% CMP ATT % YD TD INT
    Philip Rivers 10.6% 19.8 32.8 60.4% 214 1.3 1.2
    Billy Volek 9.8% 19.1 32.1 59.5% 206 1.3 1.3
    Copyright AccuScore.com
    If both LT and Rivers are out, the Chargers win just 8.1 percent of simulations. While this represents a 2.5 percentage point drop, that does translate into 23 percent fewer wins.

    Scenarios NE SD
    BASELINE 89.4% 10.6%
    No Rivers or LT 91.9% 8.1%
    Copyright AccuScore.com

    What If San Diego had home-field advantage?

    The Patriots upset the Chargers in San Diego last year and this year would be no different. Early weather forecasts have the high to be around 20 degrees, but without precipitation. If the game were in San Diego, the Chargers' chances go from 10.6% all the way to 28.8%. So the Chargers' chances nearly triple, but they would still be a full 7-point underdog at home to the 17-0 Patriots.

    Scenarios NE SD Score
    San Diego at New England 89.4% 10.6% 32-17
    New England at San Diego 71.2% 28.8% 28-21
    Copyright AccuScore.com

    Antonio Cromartie makes a big difference

    The Chargers were beaten badly in Week 2 by the Patriots. New England came out firing through the air, passing 15 of their first 18 plays. Antonio Cromartie did not play that week, but came off the bench to become a Pro Bowler with 10 interceptions. He had a key interception to end the first half in Indianapolis. Cromartie deserved to make the Pro Bowl, not only because of the number of interceptions he had, but also his presence led to a lower completion percentage and fewer long pass completions by opposing QBs. In simulations where Cromartie does not play, the Chargers win just 7.4 percent. In this specific matchup, Cromartie is having a larger impact on the outcome than offensive stars, LT and Rivers.

    Tom Brady NE Win% CMP ATT % YD TD INT
    Baseline 89.4% 24.0 35.3 68.0% 327 3.1 1.0
    W/ Cromartie Not Playing 92.6% 24.9 34.9 71.3% 346 3.5 0.8
    Copyright AccuScore.com

    Wes Welker's impact

    Wes Welker may have dropped one notable pass vs the Jags, but his presence obviously was a huge part of the Patriots' record-breaking season. In simulations where Welker did not play, the Patriots only won 84 percent of the time, nearly 5.5 percentage points lower in winning percentage. Brady's forecasted passing yards are 327 yards with Welker but just 298 without him and his touchdowns are down 0.8 per simulation. The big difference you see is in third-down conversion percentage which goes down over 5 percentage points without Welker.

    Tom Brady NE Win% 3rd Down CMP ATT % YD TD INT
    Baseline 89.4% 53.4% 24.0 35.3 68.0% 327 3.1 1.0
    W/ Wes Welker Out 84.1% 48.2% 21.9 33.5 65.4% 298 2.3 1.0
    Copyright AccuScore.com
     
  28. Boltdiehard

    Boltdiehard Well-Known Member

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    Buck do you put a lot of faith in exit polls as well? :lol:

    Besides we have Billy Volek fools. :abq2:
     
  29. Buck Blincoe

    Buck Blincoe BoltTalker

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    Just trying to inform the ignorant masses. :D

    Volek and Turner work well for you. You will miss Gates, but Cromartie is a beast.

    I'm psyched for the game.....I don't like the spread, so I won't bet in that pool.
     

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