1. Welcome to San Diego Chargers NFL Football Podcast and Forum!

    Bolt Talk is one of the largest online communities for the San Diego Chargers. We host a regular Chargers podcast during the season. You are currently viewing our community forums as a guest user.

    Create an Account or

    Having an account grants you additional privileges, such as creating and participating in discussions. Furthermore, we hide most of the ads once you register as a member!
    Dismiss Notice

If this is true, what a difference one play makes!

Discussion in 'Chargers Fan Forum' started by Concudan, Oct 25, 2011.

  1. Concudan

    Concudan Caffeinated Commando

    Joined:
    Mar 5, 2006
    Messages:
    53,044
    Ratings:
    +4,979
    [​IMG]
    @SDchargersdude Christopher Smith

    Interception on pass intended for VJ was huge: Advanced NFL Stats says 81 percent win probability for SD before the play, 46 percent after.
     
  2. Pointyearedog

    Pointyearedog I only put idiots on ignore...

    Joined:
    Aug 19, 2008
    Messages:
    5,345
    Ratings:
    +1,734
    Great time for hindsight. Would have, should have, could have.
     
  3. Concudan

    Concudan Caffeinated Commando

    Joined:
    Mar 5, 2006
    Messages:
    53,044
    Ratings:
    +4,979
    How is looking at percentages hindsight? Neither myself or Chris is saying "if we woulda done this we would have won". Simply looking at the percentages before and after the play.

    There is no hindsight, but your might be puckering up from some sour grapes my friend...
     
  4. Blue Bolt

    Blue Bolt Persona Non Grata

    Joined:
    Oct 28, 2009
    Messages:
    22,299
    Ratings:
    +4,411
    I thought Crayton fair-catching the punt at the 6 was huge as well.

    If he let it go, we could've had the ball at the 20. Instead, we're backed up and quickly go 3 and out. Jets get the ball back in great field position and score. The momentum shifted after that boneheaded play.
     
  5. Concudan

    Concudan Caffeinated Commando

    Joined:
    Mar 5, 2006
    Messages:
    53,044
    Ratings:
    +4,979
    Yeah, small things add up. Of course if the officials were not paid off... ;)
     
  6. Blue Bolt

    Blue Bolt Persona Non Grata

    Joined:
    Oct 28, 2009
    Messages:
    22,299
    Ratings:
    +4,411
    It's New Jersey....... what do people expect? ;)
     
  7. Aggieman

    Aggieman I bleed blue and gold

    Joined:
    Aug 14, 2008
    Messages:
    2,363
    Ratings:
    +194
    I know the the guy that runs Advanced NFL Stats's brother. He actually messaged me when that happened. I usually can trust his work so it's likely true and reliable but it's still looking backward and not forward. There will be many more mistakes like that.
     
  8. Buck Melanoma

    Buck Melanoma Guest

    Ratings:
    +408
    Anyone show this to DenverBolt? :laugh:
     
  9. DenverBolt67

    DenverBolt67 BoltTalker

    Joined:
    Jan 24, 2010
    Messages:
    5,482
    Ratings:
    +629
    I think the entire 2nd half performance of the players and coaching staff, is what cost us the game. Same reason that we almost allow Tebow to pull a win out of his *** 2 weeks prior to that
     
  10. DenverBolt67

    DenverBolt67 BoltTalker

    Joined:
    Jan 24, 2010
    Messages:
    5,482
    Ratings:
    +629
    I saw it, and still don't care. What is the % of a team winning that has a double digit lead at half time? I bet it is pretty high also, but it doesn't guarantee anything just as that Int didn't guarantee a loss. There was a lot more involved in that loss than a couple Interceptions
     
  11. JohnnyX

    JohnnyX 2017 Chargers Head Coach

    Joined:
    Oct 7, 2010
    Messages:
    2,584
    Ratings:
    +378
    Advanced Stats also say that having a Horrible Coach and QB having he's worst year ever playing a team playing physical football equals a resounding 100% losing probability.
     
  12. DenverBolt67

    DenverBolt67 BoltTalker

    Joined:
    Jan 24, 2010
    Messages:
    5,482
    Ratings:
    +629
    By the way, a team with Norv Turner loses 49% of the time.
     
  13. Concudan

    Concudan Caffeinated Commando

    Joined:
    Mar 5, 2006
    Messages:
    53,044
    Ratings:
    +4,979
    I am sure the stats do not back this rhetoric... :rolleyes:
     
  14. DenverBolt67

    DenverBolt67 BoltTalker

    Joined:
    Jan 24, 2010
    Messages:
    5,482
    Ratings:
    +629
    You are right. It should have been that team with Norv has a head coach, lose 51% of the time, not 49%, being that Norv's career winning % is .490
     
  15. Concudan

    Concudan Caffeinated Commando

    Joined:
    Mar 5, 2006
    Messages:
    53,044
    Ratings:
    +4,979
    Do the numbers and let me know what it is as a Chargers head coach...
     
  16. scratchnz

    scratchnz BoltTalker

    Joined:
    Mar 1, 2009
    Messages:
    1,077
    Ratings:
    +91
    Gees Louise, your like a broken record!
     
  17. Concudan

    Concudan Caffeinated Commando

    Joined:
    Mar 5, 2006
    Messages:
    53,044
    Ratings:
    +4,979
    And what are you?
     

Share This Page