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Interesting study on the top 5 picks of the NFL draft

Discussion in 'American Football' started by RaiderRay, Apr 21, 2010.

  1. RaiderRay

    RaiderRay RIP SD Chargers...Go Padres, Gulls, Ducks, Raiders Staff Member Administrator Podcaster

    Jun 20, 2005


    Rookies taken in the top five spots of the 2009 NFL Draft collected a record $167.7 million in guaranteed money—an 81% increase from 2005. That figure is bound to rise again Thursday when several rookies become instant millionaires before ever playing a snap of pro football.

    However, any player called to the podium in the first five picks of the draft has about a 50% chance of being a flop, according to Yale School of Management professor Cade Massey, who recently co-authored the study "The Loser's Curse: Overconfidence vs. Market Efficiency in the NFL Draft." Mr. Massey looked at the top five picks from 1991 through 2004, 70 players total, to see how many couldn't cut it in the league (didn't play five seasons), which ones were mere disappointments (still in the league after five years but never made a Pro Bowl) and how many actually panned out (named to at least one Pro Bowl).

    About 51% of these picks fell into the negative categories, with 10 not even reaching the five-season mark. Only a handful of players were washouts because of injuries—most notably linebacker Trev Alberts, the No. 5 overall pick in the 1994 draft—while quarterbacks Heath Shuler, Akili Smith and Ryan Leaf were cut because of poor performance. This group also includes those who played five years but were undeniably busts, such as No. 1 picks Tim Couch (below) and Ki-Jana Carter.

    So is there a way to draft smarter? "Unless the steepness (of rookie contracts) is changed, the Loser's Curse will remain," Mr. Massey says. He says smart drafting teams should be defined by their willingness to trade top picks for multiple, more economical selections—not only their ability to gauge talent.
  2. coachmarkos

    coachmarkos BoltTalker

    Jul 12, 2009
    Yes, the rookie Salary Cap is needed, and a big reason why the lockout may happen, as the NFLPA says they won't accept one.

    This is most likely the biggest point of contention in getting a new agreement worked out.
  3. Ride The Lightning

    Ride The Lightning Join the Dark Side, we have cookies.

    Aug 15, 2006
    qft a bunch of times
  4. Trumpet_Man

    Trumpet_Man Well-Known Member

    Feb 14, 2006
    The players should all get one million per year regardless of position or tenure.

    Anyone biiitches - they are gone.

    End of story. :bolt:

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