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LBC and Duffman's "Watch List"

Discussion in 'NFL Draft' started by The LBC, Sep 23, 2013.

  1. Duffman57

    Duffman57 BoltTalker

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    Thats one thing i kept seeing in Beasley, he's got that "country strength", where he consistently wants to hit people and is really good with the leverage battle as well as the playing mean comment. But most of all, the handwork is all there. The big difference i've seen from some of the other guys like Maybin is the fluidity when he's in space, similar to Irvin. But what i like most about him is how he fits this teams need, he can come in right away as a pass rusher and play well. As you said, right now he looks like a very good pass rush specialist, but the question is if he can turn into more than that. Every time I see him i keep thinking how there's no way that he's only 6'2" like he's listed at...he's gotta be taller.

    I'm really interested in Murphy. There's just so much to think about with him. Honestly at some points i think he can be a guy like Kerrigan as you said, but it'll be interesting to see how he measures out. He's just one of those guys who isn't physically impressive, but will just consistently get the job done and get to the QB. He seems like one of those guys who can succeed as a "length" type rusher.

    I'm interested in Beau. I think he's a guy who could be the right fit for us. I think TT likes those types of high football IQ, hard worker, smart guys that he can plug and play, and they'll just get they're job done time after time. And at NT, after Nix, IMO he's the next best option, as i'm not a big fan of McCullers or Carruthers.

    CB is still confusing the crap out of me. I see a bunch of guys piled in the late 1st-2nd round conversation but there's nobody i'd really put in the conversation in the top 20. What are your thoughts on the earlier round CB's LBC? A lot of people seem high on Dennard, but i just dont see that athletic ability for him to go top 15-20, same goes for Gilbert.
     
  2. The LBC

    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    Really depends on what people are looking for when it comes to the CB's, and different guys offer different positives and negatives, so that's why there's such a jumble in the order of the order of Top 3 or 4 from person to person.

    Gilbert appeals to people that covet the long, ballhawking corner. But I keep seeing Casey Heyward in him as a pro; except that he's slower and for all the talk lauding his "shutdown" ability as a man-coverage corner at Oklahoma State, he consistently lines up 6-7 yards off the line of scrimmage to do so because he's really not got the kind of long-speed many teams that run man will prefer (if he breaks the 4.5s barrier on his 40, I'll be surprised). Again for all the talk of him being shutdown, I've seen him get burned probably more than any of the other highly-regarded CB prospects in this class - and that's with his cushion - because he's extremely inconsistent and slow in his jump off the snap. Also, for a guy who seems to want to be a bigger hitter and a box-out corner (pertaining to jump-balls and in the end-zone), Gilbert can't press to save his life... another reason for having to play off. In short, he's scheme limited which affects his value. He's a solid 2nd round pick that people are hyping because of his INT splash play highlight film (without watching the full game) up to be a Top 15 pick and 1st CB off the board, which should come back down to Earth some after the combine. He would still have value in the late 1st, but I don't see a Top 20 player unless you overrate collegiate turnover stats.

    Dennard to me is a Leon Hall clone. If he gets the proper coaching and continues to keep his head on straight (in terms of effort, as it's going to be interesting to see how he fares when the adversity truly kicks up on him), he has definite high-end starter potential, but those expecting him to come in as a rookie and be a dependable starter are, in my opinion, not looking close enough at the tape. I'd actually expect the opposite - he'll struggle as a rookie, but if he responds well in the face of adversity should bounce back in his sophomore campaign, similarly to Hall, and prove to be more than capable and worth the Top 15 selection he's likely to see. The main issue with Dennard right now is that for all his knack of getting himself into great positions to make plays on receivers, his tackling is downright sad (and that's where the effort question comes in for me, because D'Antonio's staff is not known in the slightest for being lax on preaching clean and proper technique especially on defense) - good amount of bigger guys managing to shake him loose, lots of going for leg- and ankle-tackles, and don't even ask about running backs - I've seen him steamrolled on a number of occasions by backs much smaller than Carlos Hyde. Now extrapolate that to the next level, where the guys are on average bigger and more athletic than what he's been used to facing on a week-to-week basis and that's likely to happen more often until he corrects his technical flaws. That said, he's a 1st rounder off his current physical abilities (change of direction, size, covering and closing speed, endurance, hands), instincts, and scheme (and side: L/R) diversity not unlike Stephon Gilmore.

    When it comes to Purifoy, if he didn't keep giving me reason to question what's between his ears he'd probably be my favorite corner in the class. The thing is, questions regarding his intelligence and psyche can drag down even the best of athletes (Hello Vince Young!). On the field, Purifoy just views as way too passive, quite unwilling to take advantage of his plus-size and length - gets neutralized by blockers way too easily and often in the run game, lets more physical receivers outmuscle him, and for a guy who is celebrated for being "a big corner" he backs off of plays a good amount and shies away from being physical. In short, there's no swagger and even what looks to be a lack of confidence in his game, which can often tend to leave DB's more prone than others among their peers to drawing penalties, especially in today's NFL. There's the off-field concerns too - he was Janoris Jenkins' running-mate when Jenkins was at UF, so it really wouldn't shock me if come draft eval time stories start surfacing about Purifoy having run-ins with the law or if he tests positive for marijuana. Long-term, he's projects much better as a man-coverage than zone-coverage defender.

    I'd say the opposite of Roby, to be honest. I think his future is bright in a zone-based scheme. Not that he couldn't play man, but just looking at this season compared to last, Ohio State's now begrudged DC Luke Fickell stuck Roby out on an island by design and his shortcomings were put on showcase more than perhaps more appropriate scheming would have allowed to happen. The reason I bring up playing him more in zone is because he's not particularly good at pressing, has gotten utterly owned by run-blocking receivers using good leverage technique fairly often, while his best attributes are his assignment discipline, his closing speed, and his blitzing. He's another guy who seems to get too passive for my liking at times but in a different way than Purifoy does. Purifoy gets passive as the play progresses, Roby's the exact opposite - passive at the onset then gun ho as the play progresses. Character concerns are obviously there too - the battery arrest (charges dropped) earlier in the year and, to be honest, given Urban Meyer's track record for paying little mind to (save to help "make them go away") the off-field behavior of his players, whenever I see smoke from a team he's attached to, he's a safer assumption that there's fire there than most.

    If Verrett were slightly bigger, I'd consider him a shoe-in for a Top 15 selection and likely pushing Dennard for first CB off the board. He's equal parts Aqib Talib and Cortland Finnegan, just without the character concerns (and Finnegan's off-field stuff is actually non-existent, he's just got a reputation for being a POS on the field) that either have. I'm less concerned about his lack of ideal size (won't be shocked if he actually measures in at 5'9" and change versus 5'10") affecting his play on the field and more about lack of bulk making him more prone to injury. But he plays bigger than he is (in fact, that's part of the reason I have the potential to be injury prone concern about him), feisty, scrappy. Where Purifoy and Roby have that tendency towards passiveness, Verrett's the exact opposite, he can almost get a little too aggressive at times and needs to work on that (particularly when defending the boundary downfield - as it got him into trouble drawing flags for illegal contact most notably against OkSt's Charlie Moore. There is no back-down in this kid though. He's part of the reason why I'm so critical of guys like Roby and Purifoy for being so middling in press-coverage, because Verrett who is much smaller than either of them looks dominant in not letting his man get off the line unmolested by comparison to the two of them.

    My favorite, non-1st-rounder in the class remains EJ Gaines. He's got a high football IQ, plays smart and tough, has better length than his height indicates, he's scheme diverse (can play both press and zone and often switched back and forth between the two in games), off the charts awareness, and aggressive (to the point it probably needs to be harnessed a bit better by coaching). I see many shades of Brandon Flowers when he was coming out of VaTech in EJ.
     
  3. Moses

    Moses Yeah Buddy!

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    LBC I like your above analysis, I actually have learned quite a few things from reading this thread lol, I'm not as experienced watching the college game as most of you guys but I'm enjoying learning for the last few years.

    Regarding DBs, is Lamarcus Joyner is too small to be CB in the NFL? Will he project better as a safety, or can he cut it as a corner?
     
  4. The LBC

    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    I think his skill-set best fits playing safety at the next level, but he can be used in the "Swiss Army Knife" type safety position similarly to how the Cardinals have deployed the Honey Badger. He's not a safety you're going to be keen on covering the "basketball player" safeties, but he can be a nuisance to more traditional TE's, Joker position players, and slot receivers (freeing up a nickel corner to mark up on the more athletic TE's). He's not without his holes in his game beyond just the smaller size - he bites on fakes and play-action more than you'd like (that can be coached out of him but will take time and discipline) and, thus far, has had the recovery speed - while in the ACC - to make up for that tendency. But there's no guarantee that that will still be the case when he steps up in competition. He doesn't defend the boundary very well either - a lot of that is lack of height and length, in that receivers are able to box him out on out and corner routes - the issue really becomes that when that happens, he's had a bad tendency to get overly physical/grabby and draw penalties. He's a guy you'd rather have playing in the mix in the flats rather than in the deep third or as a center-fielder - somewhat similar to how Pagano's been playing Weddle of late as a sort of half-safety/half-linebacker (Seattle's done this a fair amount with Kam Chancellor as well). Biggest thing he needs to work on though is his hitting/tackling technique. He actually has clean technique on his cut-tackling, but he goes high way, WAY too much and in the modern NFL he'd be drawing personal foul penalties right and left and potentially concussing himself going in like that on an RB. Needs to learn to tackle the hips/thighs/legs more - ironically his shorter size could be a boon there if he continues to be able to pack a wallop into his strikes (and assuming he beefs up to around 200 or 205 lbs - which is do-able) as he could his with power and leverage on guys and likely create a fair amount of fumbles (hitting in the same manner that Jones-Drew laid out Merriman a few years back or Sproles used to stonewall bigger guys pass-blocking).
     
  5. The LBC

    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    Also, regarding the thread/column, I'm glad you're enjoying it and finding it informative. Now that we're getting closer to post-season games for the FBS, I'm going to do my best to put more effort into highlighting some of the lesser known guys I've been tracking (Allen was one of them at NT, I've got another that I'm actually more fond of than guys like Carruthers - and more secure in the work-ethic/conditioning of than McCullers) that most people know little about because he plays for Delaware - I've just been waiting to see if he gets an post-season game invite (Texas v. the Nation game possibly).

    But I'm hoping to start cranking out some Chargers needs specific primers for at least some of the more prominent bowl games to give folks on here who are going to be watching them anyway an idea of who to keep an eye on and see what they think themselves.
     
  6. SuperCharger92

    SuperCharger92 BoltTalker

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    I actually don't think NT is a huge need at the moment. If we do draft a NT, he's most likely going to play 40-50% of the snaps and be included in a heavy rotation.
     
  7. The LBC

    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    So do most NT's. Doesn't mean we shouldn't have a quality NT and certainly a better option than the majority of what we've got at the position on the roster. Lissemore is a good piece, but he's also best used in a rotation and the depth behind him are unknowns and not anything we should feel comfortable depending on. You have to be at worst two-deep at quality NT options on your roster if you operate out of a 3-4 because the other two downed-linemen are so dependent on getting a quality performance from the NG in order to produce as best as possible.
     
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  8. SuperCharger92

    SuperCharger92 BoltTalker

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    Yes, I think we found a good piece in Lissemore. Maybe go the FA route and grab someone like Terrence Cody to play in the rotation, guys like like Aubrayo Franklin and Ryan Pickett aren't what the front office is looking for, those older more experienced guys, but they would be quality options.

    Or like a guy you mentioned, Beau Allen in the draft. Had my eye on him in September-October because I heard he made a very smooth transition to the 3-4 NT. Lost track of him since. There's a handful of guys right now that might be there in the 3rd, 4th and 5th rounds like Allen, Carrethers, and Kerr.
     
  9. The LBC

    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    I agree, but at the same time I refuse (because it's closed-minded and, in my opinion, dumb) to write off upgrading a position that does clearly need an upgrade simply because "well... we could just fill the need with a journeyman in FA and get adequate results." I'm not pounding the table demanding that NT absolutely must be a position taken in the first 2 rounds; that particular approach is just as closed-minded and dumb as saying we should just wait until the mid-to-late rounds because the guy is only going to be a rotational player. (Apologies if that last bit comes across as condescending, that's not my intention.)

    If Louis Nix is available to us at our natural pick in the 1st and a more dynamic prospect - specifically Khalil Mack - isn't also staring us straight in the face, you take him. And I'd take him over ANY DB in the class. He provides more in both the short and long-term than any DB in this class will (yes, I believe he'll be more impactful than even Dennard if both scratch their ceilings). Moreover, the sad reality is that unless the salary cap sees a significant hike when the revenue from the media contracts kicked in for the league, the chances of us being able to retain both Liuget and Reyes long-term (when they were drafted in back-to-back years and thus their rookie deals will expire in back-to-back years) aren't as good. So doing whatever we can to ensure that we still consistently field 2 out of 3 high quality downed linemen will benefit our defense greatly.

    Now I'm not saying, that if Nix is gone to reach for the next best NT in the 1st or even in the 2nd unless there's someone that looks of particularly good value there. In fact, if we miss on Nix, my preference is to sit tight till the 3rd (Shelton; if he comes out which I figure is less than 30% at this point), or 4th or 5th (Justin Ellis, Beau Allen, or Zach Kerr) for the high-floor, lower ceiling guys and be perfectly content. But I won't dismiss upgrading over Lissemore if the the opportunity comes along and positive value is presented.
     
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  10. SuperCharger92

    SuperCharger92 BoltTalker

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    Absolutely, If Nix gets to us, you take him. Though I think he'll still go top-15 even with the knee injury, and I don't see us picking in the top 15. I see us just out of it, around 16-19. And I wouldn't want to trade up for him to be quite honest. I'd like to trade back into the mid-20's because I believe Mack's smalls school knock, teams going QB crazy, will push Beasley into the mid-20's. I'd love to grab another pick and either select a player with it or use it to trade up in the 2nd or 3rd round.

    But, that's all nonsense talk. Telesco has shown he will get aggressive if he likes a player on the board. I would just love to have Vic Beasley and Will Sutton on this defensive front. I think its doable, but can't see Telesco being that aggressive. I think Sutton can play as a NT 3rd down pass rusher, and Lissemore as the run stopper. I really can't wait for the bowl games and combine coming up.
     
  11. Duffman57

    Duffman57 BoltTalker

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    Thats pretty much what i got on everyone. I was wary of Dennard's physical abilities until i watched him closer, but he way he grabs and makes some dumb plays downfield leads me to believe that he's going to get his share of PI/Illegal Contact penalties in the first few years.

    I really never saw the athleticism people keep talking about with Gilbert.

    Another interesting guy is Ifo, but i'm really not sure where to put him. I have him slotted in right after Roby probably, and before Gilbert. He's another guy who could collect a lot of yellow hankies in his first few years for physical downfield play, but definitely has the aggressiveness and quickness in and out of breaks, as well as closing speed to make a big impact.

    At risk of sounding like a homer, Terrance Mitchell is another guy i'm really interested in around the 3rd-5th round. I've always thought he was the better pure corner of the two, and has incredible instincts, though is very passive.
     
    Last edited: Dec 21, 2013
  12. Boltjolt

    Boltjolt Well-Known Member

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    Id be surprised if that happened. Probably more like 4.8's. Good player but more a 4-3 DE. I dont see him at all as a 3-4 OLB. If you see Kerrigan in Murphy then you see a slow Kerrigan in him because he isnt going to come close to the 4.67 that Kerrigan ran. Im going to agree with your friend here even though i dont know exactly what he said. Its just i dont agree with you on this. Murphy isnt a good fit for us.
     
  13. SuperCharger92

    SuperCharger92 BoltTalker

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    Adam Muema of San Diego State put on a show last night against Buffalo. Khalil Mack's name was barely called. Great scheme by San Diego State to keep one of college football's most disruptive forces on the edge basically a non-factor.
     
  14. The LBC

    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    Khalil Mack was triple-teamed most of the night. That in itself speaks of the kind of respect he needs to be shown.
     
  15. matilack

    matilack #therealagent47

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    Top 5 pick, 10 at latest. Will probably go to the Raiders (after they sign Jay Cutler) knowing our luck.
     
  16. SuperCharger92

    SuperCharger92 BoltTalker

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    I hope they sign Cutler lolololol

    They probably end up with Jadeveon Clowney to be honest, or Derek Carr or Blake Bortles.
     
  17. AusCharged

    AusCharged BoltTalker

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    You think Nix will go that high Super?
     
  18. SuperCharger92

    SuperCharger92 BoltTalker

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    There's just too many teams that need interior help in the top 15 right now. And if we finish 9-7 and the Cowboys go either 8-8 or 9-7 they will still be ahead of us, and their run D is atrocious. They need a big run stuffer in the middle of the defense.

    Nix has too much darn good tape. Even against Bama last year he held his own against an OL that fielded 2 top 15 picks and Barrett Jones going afterwards. And another in Kouandijo this year, most likely going in the 1st round.
     
  19. The LBC

    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    Realistically the best hope we have is that he suffers a setback with his meniscus rehab (though I do think if George Uko declares, he'll jump Nix similar to how Michael Brockers jumped several other more established DT's two years ago) - which is still a double-edged sword because the meniscus is the one part of the knee you really have to worry about, given that ligaments can be repaired and replaced using cadaver parts if necessary - once a meniscus is worn away or degraded that's typically permanent and will at minimum shave time off a player's career length (and eventually require knee replacement surgery when it finally degrades away to where the joint is effectively bone-on-bone).
     
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  20. Jesse Kemp

    Jesse Kemp BoltTalker

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    Now that Aaron Lynch has declared, I think he could end up being one of the biggest bargains in this draft. He's had a quiet year (causing pundits to put him in the 5th round rangeā€¦ lol), but the talent didn't disappear. His length is incredible. He engages offensive linemen with long arms, rocks them back, and disengages at will. Good get-off, especially for his size. Very athletic. Needs to add weight in a bad way, but his frame will definitely allow him to do so. Looks like he could easily play at 265. In the 2nd round, he would be amazing value.
     
  21. Jesse Kemp

    Jesse Kemp BoltTalker

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    Does anyone have a read on Cameron Erving? I've watched some FSU, but haven't spotlighted him. Seems like some media rate him a top 10 player, and some don't even have him in their top 32.
     
  22. matilack

    matilack #therealagent47

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    Personal opinion...is that he is very like DJ Fluker, he came to FSU as a DT and he plays with that type of physicality. He's a monster in the run game both at the point of contact and 10 yards upfield, so of course as the laws of give and take dictate he's a relatively sloppy pass blocker, he often over extends and gets exposed on double moves to the inside.

    I expect he'll go in the top 20 if he declares this year, top 10 next year if he returns and successfully fixes his foot work....which to be fair I suppose he could do in the NFL anyway.
     
  23. FCBolt

    FCBolt Well-Known Member

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    What's up with Blake Treadwell? He steamrolled Mauro all day today, but I don't see him projected as anything but UDFA. Granted
    1. Mauro isn't that great
    2. I haven't watched much MSU football this year
    but the guy looked solid in both pass pro and run plays.
     
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  24. Jesse Kemp

    Jesse Kemp BoltTalker

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    Thanks. I'll watch him specifically here pretty soon. He seems to be a good candidate to fit my idea of drafting a future left tackle who can play left guard in the meantime. I view Troutman as the future RG, but I'd like to improve upon Rinehart if we can and take advantage of another year of having Dunlap on the cheap. Guys like Ogbuehi, Erving, Robinson, and Collins seem quite capable of fitting that idea. My main concerns with all of them is whether or not they have the feet to pull and get to the second level. From what I've heard, the Noles have Erving pull quite often. Then you have Zack Martin, who projects very nicely to LG and could probably fill in at LT as needed, but I don't view him as the long term answer on the outside.
     
  25. Jesse Kemp

    Jesse Kemp BoltTalker

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    Good catch. Very underrated prospect. The media hasn't caught on yet, but he's a good player.
     
  26. The LBC

    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    I actually view Martin having a better long-term future as a center than an LT. He could play LT in a pinch, but his better fits are at LG and C.
     
  27. Jesse Kemp

    Jesse Kemp BoltTalker

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    I'd say that's fair. In all likelihood, he winds up at LG somewhere and just stays there. No need to convert a perfectly good guard to another position unless the need is dire.
     
  28. SuperCharger92

    SuperCharger92 BoltTalker

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    What do you think of Matt Hall from Belhaven? Transfer from Ole Miss, has played OG and OT, has exceptional length at 6'8-6'9. Could be a nice project for Joe D; has accepted an invite to the Shrine game.

    Also, you think we take a center this draft to play at OG or backup Hardwick since his contract expires next year? I think we do, I'd like to see either Larsen, Stork or Richburg in that order.
     
  29. The LBC

    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    Haven't seen much of Hall, but I'll take a look.

    As far as the second paragraph... yes... to all of it. I think our best bet is to take a center, let him cut his teeth at LG for a year or two, then kick him inside to replace Nick when Nick's contract runs out (at which point he might just retire, TBH). Either way, it helps avoid the "QB developing chemistry with the center" bit because the would-be future center is already on the roster and on the starting OL. Guards are ultimately a lot more easy to replace than centers are (or rather, "cheaply" might be the more operative word). I agree with Jesse that Troutman seems more ideally suited to play RG, but what I personally would like to see is grooming Hardwick's replacement at LG, and letting Joe D - if he doesn't think Becton is the guy - get hold of another TE-to-LT prospect (I still think San Diego State's Bryce Quigley fits that mold, but there are a couple other guys - Najvar, McDonald from K-State) and groom.
     
  30. SuperCharger92

    SuperCharger92 BoltTalker

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    It will be interesting what they do, or what Telesco has up his sleeves.

    I wonder what the Bills will do with Chris Hairston, he finished the year on the IR and they seem to be doing just fine without him, they won't take a hit cutting him either and he's a free agent next year. If they do cut him, I'd like Joe D to make a call to him. I still think Mike Harris looked much improved at the LT position under Joe D.
     

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