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LBC's Draft Thread (Rankings, Sleepers, etc.)

Discussion in 'NFL Draft' started by The LBC, Dec 23, 2014.

  1. The LBC

    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    Sort of a hodge-podge thread for the time being. I'm going to reserve myself the first few posts so that I can add more material (time permitting) as I'm able to crank it out. With all luck I'll be able to get in at least positional rankings, a list of sleepers, and eventually a mock of how I expect things to fall out in the draft.

    Table of Contents
    Prospect Rankings
     
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  2. The LBC

    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    Prospect Rankings

    Quarterbacks:

    1.) Marcus Mariota [Oregon; Jr.]
    2.) Jameis Winston [Florida State; RSo.] ©
    3.) Brett Hundley [UCLA; Jr.]
    4.) Garrett Grayson [Colorado State; Sr.]
    5.) Bryce Petty [Baylor; Sr.]
    6.) Bryan Bennett [Southeast Louisiana State; Sr.]
    7.) Brandon Bridge [South Alabama; Sr.]
    8.) Shane Carden [East Carolina; Sr.]
    9.) Chris Bonner [Colorado State - Pueblo; Sr.]
    10.) Sean Mannion [Oregon State; Sr.]
    11.) Jacoby Brissett [NC State; RSo.]
    12.) Cody Fajardo [Nevada; Sr.]
    13.) Anthony Boone [Duke; Sr.]
    14.) Taylor Kelly [Arizona State; Sr.]
    15.) Chuckie Keaton [Utah State; Sr.]

    HM: Brian Bell [Sam Houston State; Sr.]

    Halfbacks:
    1.) Todd Gurley [Georgia; Jr.] *INJ*
    2.) Melvin Gordon III [Wisconsin; Jr.]
    3.) Jay Ajayi [Boise State; Jr.]
    4.) Tevin Coleman [Indiana; Jr.]
    5.) Mike Davis [South Carolina; Jr.]
    6.) Duke Johnson [Miami (FL); Jr.]
    7.) Ameer Abdullah [Nebraska; Sr.]
    8.) David Cobb [Minnesota; Sr.]
    9.) Jeremy Langford [Michigan State; Sr.]

    10.) T.J. Yeldon [Alabama; Jr.]
    11.) David Johnson [Northern Iowa; Sr.]
    12.) David Cobb [Minnesota; Sr.]
    13.) Josh Robinson [Mississippi State; Sr.]
    14.) Javorius "Buck" Allen [USC; Jr.]
    15.) Karlos Williams [Florida State; Sr.] ©
    16.) Cameron Artis-Payne [Auburn; Sr.]
    17.) Zack Zenner [South Dakota State; Sr.]
    18.) Terrance Magee [LSU; Sr.]
    19.) John Crockett [North Dakota State; Sr.]
    20.) Tyler Varga [Yale; Sr.]

    HM: Malcolm Agnew [Southern Illinois; Sr.], Akeem Daniels [Northern Illinois; Sr.], Alonzo Harris [UL-Lafayette; Sr.], Jahwan Edwards [Ball State; Sr.], Thomas Rawls [Central Michigan; Sr.], Malcolm Brown [Texas; Sr.]

    Wide Receivers:
    1a) Amari Cooper [Alabama; Jr.]
    1b) Kevin White [West Virginia; Sr.]
    1c) Devante Parker [Louisville; Sr.]
    ^ All dependent on scheme-fit
    4) Tyler Lockett [Kansas State; Sr.]
    5) Deandre Smelter [Georgia Tech; Sr.] (INJ)
    6) Breshad Perriman [Central Florida; Jr.]
    7) Rashad Greene [Florida State; Sr.]
    8) Phillip Dorsett [Miami (FL); Sr.]
    9) Devin Smith [Ohio State; Sr.]
    10) Nelson Agholor [USC; Jr.]
    11) Devin Funchess [Michigan; Jr.]
    12) Tre McBride [William & Mary; Sr.]
    13) Chris Conley [Georgia; Sr.]
    14) Sammie Coates [Auburn; RJr.]
    15) Jaelen Strong [Arizona State; RJr.]
    16) Vince Mayle [Washington State; RSr.]
    17) Justin Hardy [East Carolina; Sr.]
    18) Josh Harper [Fresno State; Sr.]

    19) Tony Lippett [Michigan State; Sr.]
    20) Stefon Diggs [Maryland; Jr.]
    21) Dezmin Lewis [Central Arkansas; RSr.]
    22) Kenny Bell [Nebraska; RSr.]
    23) Dorial Green-Beckham [Missouri; Jr.]
    24) Ty Montgomery [Stanford; Sr.]
    25) Titus Davis [Central Michigan; Sr.]
    26) Austin Hill [Arizona; RSr.]
    27) Jordan Leslie [BYU; RSr.]
    28) Dres Anderson [Utah; Sr.] (INJ)
    29) Lemar Durant [Simon Fraser; Sr.]
    30)Jamison Crowder [Duke; Sr.]

    HM: Chris Allen [Friends University; Sr.], Donatella Luckett [Harding; Sr.], Deon Long [Maryland; Sr.], Jake Kumerow [Wisconsin-Whitewater; Sr.], Evan Spencer [Ohio State; Sr.]

    Tight Ends:
    1.) Maxx Williams [Minnesota; RSo.]
    2.) Jesse James [Penn State; Jr.]
    3.) Clive Walford [Miami (FL); Sr.]
    4.) Jeff Heuerman [Ohio State; Sr.]
    5.) Darren Waller [Georgia Tech; Sr.]
    6.) Tyler Kroft [Rutgers; RJr.]
    7.) Ben Koyack [Notre Dame; Sr.]
    8.) Nick O'Leary [Florida State; Sr.]
    9.) Eric Tomlinson [UTEP; RSr.]
    10.) E.J. Bibbs [Iowa State; Sr.]
    11.) Blake Bell [Oklahoma; RSr.]
    12.) C.J. Uzomah [Auburn; Sr.]
    13.) Nick Boyle [Delaware; Sr.]
    14.) MyCoyle Pruitt [Southern Illinois; Sr.]
    15.) Wes Saxton [South Alabama; Sr.]
    16.) Matt LaCosse [Illinois; Sr.]
    17.) Kivon Wright [Colorado State; RSr.]
    18.) Sam Arneson [Wisconsin; Sr.]
    19.) Gerald Christian [Louisville; RSr.]
    20.) Gabe Holmes [Purdue; RSr.]

    HM: Westlee Tonga [Utah; Sr.], Randall Telfer [USC; RSr.], Jake McGee [Florida; Sr.]


    Offensive Tackles:
    **Note: Some players will appear multiple times in my OL rankings, according to where I would stack them up against their peers at that respective position currently.**

    1.) La'el Collins [LSU; Sr.]
    2.) T.J. Clemmings [Pittsburgh; RSr.]
    3.) Jake Fisher [Oregon; Sr.]
    4.) Andrus Peat [Stanford; Jr.]
    5.) D.J. Humphries [Florida; Jr.]
    6.) Cameron Erving [Florida State; RSr.]
    7.) Brandon Scherff [Iowa; RSr.]
    8.) Ereck Flowers [Miami (FL); Jr.]
    9.) Ty Sambrailo [Colorado State; RSr.]
    10.) Rob Crisp [NC State; Sr.]
    11.) Cedric Ogbuehi [Texas A&M; RSr.] (INJ)
    12.) Tyrus Thompson [Oklahoma; RSr.]
    13.) Austin Shepherd [Alabama; Sr.]
    14.) Donovan Smith [Penn State; RJr.]
    15.) Rob Havenstein [Wisconsin; RSr.]
    16.) Cole Manhart [Nebraska-Kearney; Sr.]
    17.) Corey Robinson [South Carolina; RSr.]
    18.) Daryl Williams [Oklahoma; RSr.]
    19.) Takoby Cofield [Duke; RSr.]
    20.) Cameron Clear [Texas A&M; RSr.]

    HM: Terry Poole [San Diego State; RSr.], Jermaine Barton [Illinois State; RSr.], Tayo Fabuluje [TCU; RSr.],

    Offensive Guards:
    1.) La'el Collins [LSU; RSr.]
    2.) Brandon Scherff [Iowa; RSr.]
    5.) Cameron Erving [Florida State; RSr.]
    Ali Marpet [Hobart; Sr.]
    7.) Laken Tomlinson [Duke; RSr.]
    4.) AJ Cann [South Carolina; RSr.]
    3.) Ty Sambrailo [Colorado State; RSr.]
    6.) Rob Havenstein [Wisconsin; RSr.]
    10.) Tre' Jackson [Florida State; Sr.]
    9.) Darrian Miller [Kentucky; Sr.]
    8.) Josue Matias [Florida State; Sr.]
    11.) Mitch Morse [Missouri; RSr.]
    12.) Adam Shead [Oklahoma; RSr.]
    13.) Jarvis Harrison [Texas A&M; RSr.]
    14.) Donovan Smith [Penn State; RJr.]
    15.) Robert Myers [Tennessee State; RSr.]
    16.) Jamil Douglas [Arizona State; RSr.]
    17.) John Miller [Louisville; Sr.]
    18.) Arie Kouandjio [Alabama; Sr.]
    19.) Jeremiah Poutasi [Utah; Jr.]
    20.) Matt Rotheram [Pittsburgh; RSr.]

    HM: Miles Dieffenbach [Penn State; RSr.] (INJ), Aundrey Walker [USC; Sr.] (INJ); John Miller [Louisville; Sr.], Scott Inskeep [Texas-San Antonio; Sr.], Jon Feliciano [Miami (FL); RSr.]

    Centers:
    1.) Cameron Erving [Florida State; RSr.]
    2.) Reese Dismukes [Auburn; Sr.]
    3.) B.J. Finney [Kansas State; RSr.]
    4.) Hroniss Grasu [Oregon; RSr.] (INJ)
    5.) Shaquille Mason [Goergia Tech; Sr.]
    6.) Greg Mancz [Toledo; RSr.]
    7.) Mitch Morse [Missouri; Sr.]
    8.) Andy Gallik [Boston College; Sr.]
    9.) Brandon Vitabile [Northwestern; Sr.]
    10.) Kaleb Johnson [Rutgers; Sr.]
    11.) Jake Smith [Louisville; RSr.]
    12.) Nick Easton [Harvard; Sr.]
    13.) Austin Gund [Richmond; Sr.]
    14.) Max Garcia [Florida; Sr.]
    15.) Matthew Reese [Tuskegee; Sr.]

    HM: Chad Hamilton [Coastal Carolina; Sr.], Vince Kowalski [Villanova; Sr.], Dallas Lewallen [Wisconsin; Sr.], David Andrews [Gerogia; Sr.]

    5-Technique/3-4 Defensive Ends:
    1.) Leonard Williams [USC; Jr.]
    2.) Eddie Goldman [Florida State; Jr.]
    3.) Arik Armstead [Oregon; Jr.]
    13.) Preston Smith [Mississippi State; Sr.]
    6.) Carl Davis [Iowa; RSr.]
    4.) Mario Edwards Jr. [Florida State; Jr.]
    5.) Danny Shelton [Washington; Sr.]
    7.) Christian Covington [Rice; RJr.]
    8.) Marcus Hardison [Arizona State; Sr.]
    9.) Michael Bennett [Ohio State; Sr.]
    10.) Gabe Wright [Auburn; Sr.]
    11.) Xavier Williams [Northern Iowa; Sr.]
    12.) Rakeem Nunez-Roches [Iowa; Sr.]
    14.) Henry Anderson [Stanford; Sr.]
    15.) Leterrius Walton [Central Michigan; Sr.]

    HM: Kaleb Eulis [Mississippi State; RSr.], Cameron Botticelli [Minnesota; RSr.], Tyeler Davison [Fresno State; Sr.], Angelo Blackson [Auburn; Sr.], Patrick Mertens [Wyoming; Sr.], Joe Okafor [Lamar; Sr.], George Riddick [Norfolk State; Sr.]

    0-Technique/3-4 Nose Tackles:
    1.) Malcom Brown [Texas; Jr.]
    2.) Jordan Phillips [Oklahoma; Jr.]

    3.) Eddie Goldman [Florida State; Jr.]
    4.) Danny Shelton [Washington; Sr.]
    5.) Carl Davis [Iowa; RSr.]
    6.) Joey Mbu [Houston; Sr.]
    7.) Xavier Williams [Northern Iowa; Sr.]
    8.) Terry Williams [East Carolina; Sr.]
    9.) Charles Tuaau [Texas A&M-Commerce; Sr.]
    10.) Darius Kilgo [Maryland; Sr.]
    11.) Ellis McCarthy [UCLA; RJr.]
    12.) Brandon Ivory [Alabama; Sr.]
    13.) LaKendrick Ross [UVA-Lynchburg; Sr.]
    14.) Hosea Crooms [Lincoln (PA); Sr.]
    15.) James Castleman [Oklahoma State; Sr.]

    HM: Taylor Bible [Carson-Newman; RSr.], Jeffrey Whittaker [Auburn; RSr.], Leon Orr [Florida; Sr.], Tonga Takai [Montana; Sr.], Deon Simon [Northwestern State; Sr.]

    3-4 Outside Linebackers/Edge-Rushers:

    1.) Dante Fowler Jr. [Florida; Jr.]
    2.) Vic Beasley [Clemson; RSr.]*
    3.) Randy Gregory [Nebraska; RJr.]
    4.) Alvin "Bud" Dupree [Kentucky; Sr.]
    5.) Owamagbe Odighizuwa [UCLA; RSr.]
    6.) Eli Harold [Virginia; Jr.]
    7.) Shane Ray [Missouri; RJr.]*
    8.) Hauoli Kikaha [Washington; RSr.]
    9.) Nate Orchard [Utah; Sr.]
    10.) Danielle Hunter [LSU; RSo.]
    11.) Lorenzo Maudlin [Louisville; Sr.]
    12.) Za'Darius Smith [Kentucky; Sr.]*
    13.) Davis Tull [Tennessee-Chattanooge; Sr.]
    14.) Lynden Trail [Norfolk State; RSr.]
    15.) Ryan Delaire [Towson; Sr.]
    16.) Frank Clark [Michigan; Sr.]
    17.) Deion Barnes [Penn State; RJr.]
    18.) Zach Wagenmann [Montana; RSr.]
    19.) Markus Golden [Missouri; Sr.]*
    20.) Mike Reilly [William & Mary; Sr.]

    HM: Max Valles [Virginia; RJr.]*, Brock Hekking [Nevada; RSr.], LeBranden Richardson [Bethune-Cookman; Sr.], J.R. Tavai [USC; Sr.], Maurice Falls [East Carolina; Sr.], Edmond Robinson [Newberry; RSr.]

    * NOTE: Like the player's fit significantly better in a 4-3 formation than a 3-4.

    3-4 Inside Linebackers:

    1.) Shaq Thompson [Washington; Jr.]*
    2.) Eric Kendricks [UCLA; RSr.]
    3.) Taiwan Jones [Michigan State; Sr.]
    4.) Benardrick McKinney [Mississippi State; RJr.]
    5.) Paul Dawson [TCU; Sr.]
    6.) Zach Hodges [Harvard; Sr.]
    7.) Stephone Anthony [Clemson; Jr.]*
    8.) Denzel Perriman [Miami (FL); Sr.]*
    9.) Ben Heeney [Kansas; Sr.]*
    10.) Ramik Wilson [Georgia; Sr.)*
    11.) Tony Washington [Oregon; RSr.]
    12.) Jake Ryan [Michigan; RSr.]
    13.) Reshard Cliett [South Florida; Sr.]

    14.) Jeff Luc [Cincinnati; Sr.]
    15.) Mike Hull [Penn State; Sr.]
    16.) Martrell Speight [Arkansas; RSr.]*
    17.) Zack Vigil [Utah State; RSr.]

    18.) D.T. Shackleford [Ole Miss; RSr.]
    19.) Jarrett Grace [Notre Dame; RSr.]
    20.) Jordan Hicks [Texas; RSr.]

    HM: Dyshawn Davis [Syracuse; Sr.], Hayes Pullard [USC; Sr.]*, Amarlo Herrera [Georgia; Sr.], Michael Odiari [Texas State; Sr.], Mark Nzeocha [Wyoming; Sr.], Damien Wilson [Minnesota; Sr.]

    NOTE FOR ALL DEFENSIVE BACKS: I'm taking into account fit for the Chargers' particular defensive scheme, as well as versatility (ability to play inside-out, third-safety, slot-corner, etc.) in all DB rankings.

    Cornerbacks:
    1.) Marcus Peters [Washington; RJr.]
    6.) Trae Waynes [Michigan State; RJr.]
    7.) Kevin Johnson [Wake Forest; RSr.]
    2.) P.J. Williams [Florida State; Jr.]
    4.) D'Joun Smith [Florida Atlantic; Sr.]
    3.) Jalen Collins [LSU; RSo.]
    14.) Ronald Darby [Florida State; Jr.]
    12.) Ifo Ekpre-Olomu [Oregon; Sr.]
    18.) Steven Nelson [Oregon State; Sr.]
    5.) Alex Carter [Stanford; Jr.]
    15.) Jacoby Glenn [UCF; RSo.]
    8.) Senquez Golson [Ole Miss; Sr.]
    9.) Josh Shaw [USC; RSr.]
    10.) Quinten Rollins [Miami (OH); RSr.]
    11.) Kevin White [TCU; RSr.]
    13.) Doran Grant [Ohio State; Sr.]
    16.) JaCorey Shepherd [Kansas; Sr.]
    17.) Craig Mager [Texas State; RSr.]
    19.) Quandre Diggs [Texas; RSr.]
    20.) Byron Jones [Connecticut; RSr.]

    HM: Bobby McCain [Memphis; RSr.], Damian Swann [Georgia; Sr.], Ladarius Gunter [Miami (FL); RSr.], Lorenzo Doss [Tulane; Jr.], Troy Hill [Oregon; RSr.], Curtis Riley [Fresno State; Sr.], Donald Celiscar [Western Kentucky; Sr.], Imoan Claiborne [Northwestern State; RSr.], Eric Rowe [Utah; Sr.]

    Safeties:

    1.) Christian Hackett [TCU; Jr.]
    2.) Landon Collins [Alabama; Jr.]
    3.) Cody Prewitt [Ole Miss; Sr.]
    4.) Derron Smith [Fresno State; RSr.]
    5.) James Sample [Louisville; RJr.]
    6.) Durrell Eskridge [Syracuse; RJr.]

    7.) Jaquiski Tartt [Samford; RSr.]
    8.) Kurtis Drummond [Michigan State; RSr.]
    9.) Anthony Harris [Virginia; Sr.]
    10.) Damarious Randall [Arizona State; RSr.]
    11.) Byron Jones [Connecticut; RSr.]
    12.) Nick Marshall [Auburn; Sr.]
    13.) Ibraheim Campbell [Northwestern; RSr.]
    14.) Clayton Geathers [UCF; RSr.]
    15.) Adrian Amos [Penn State; Sr.]
    16.) Gerod Holliman [Louisville; RJr.]
    17.) Erick Dargan [Oregon; RSr.]
    18.) Tra'Mayne Bondurant [Arizona; Jr.]
    19.) Eric Rowe [Utah; Sr.]
    20.) Imoan Claiborn [Northwestern State; Sr.]

    HM: Quandre Diggs [Texas; Sr.], Tye Smith [Towson; Sr.], Jacob Hagen [Liberty; Sr.], Sam Carter [TCU; RSr.], Kyshoen Jarrett [Virginia Tech; Sr.], Robertson Daniel [BYU; Sr.], Bobby McCain [Memphis; RSr.]
     
    Last edited: Mar 21, 2015
  3. The LBC

    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    Update (3/20/2015): I managed to check off all the items on my to-do list ahead of schedule today, so I figured it was high time I got around to putting some more content on here. So with that in mind:


    LBC's Sleepers of the 2015 NFL Draft:

    First, just so we're on the same page - let me clarify my criteria for being considered a sleeper. There is a common misconception that "sleeper" automatically denotes a smaller conference, small school guy who comes out of nowhere. Sleepers really are just guys who are being "slept on" by those in the various media circles doing all the hyping of prospects. Any player who is a household name is generally not a sleeper. Once a player has broken out, that designation can't apply again unless the player has since fallen back into obscurity. According to NFL.com's Fantasy Football Glossary, sleepers are often wide receivers and are typically late-round draft picks or waiver-wire selections that outplay their projections. I tend to expand this to any player being talked up as a Day 2 or higher prospect by most online draft resources has vacated sleeper status (e.g. Ali Marpet was a sleeper prior to extra-collegiate games like the Senior Bowl, but is no longer).

    I'm going to do my best to provide an assortment of sleepers, not just small school guys (of whom a solid 75-plus percent of which I can credit Emory with turning me onto; giving credit where it's due), but also guys from D1 programs who perhaps are being slept on because they were buried on depth charts, playing on bad teams, or playing in poor schemes for where their skill sets project at the next level. Obviously not all of these guys will be drafted, but I have "draftable" grades on every one of them (even if it's just a late Day 3 grade as someone whom I'd qualify as a high-priority UDFA I wanted to ensure getting into camp and not competeing to sign).

    Quarterback:
    [​IMG]

    Bryan Bennett // Southeastern Louisiana State (formerly Oregon)
    6'2" - 211 pounds
    LBC's Take: A lot of names are getting thrown around by media folk trying to sell the potential of some of these former collegians. The thing is, if I'm drafting a quarterback based on his potential I want him to check several boxes for me that tell me he at least has the upside to project as starter down the road if developed properly. I came by these traits via a friend and colleague (who I try not to hold it against too much that he hosts a sports talk radio program in the Denver market), Ben Albright, who has been one of the best QB prospect eval guys I've come to know.

    Per Ben, the necessary filters to pass are a hand-size greater than 9" (correlates to both touch on the football as well as holding onto it consistently), throw velocity of at least 55 mph (i.e. "actual arm strength" as it pertains to QB's), and must be 23 or younger at time of draft. There are a few other preferable traits (specifically a sub-4.4s short-shuttle, weight of at least 210 lbs, clean character), but none are as essential as the primary three.

    So what's the 4-1-1 on Bennett? Before Marcus Mariota was recruited and given the opportunity to beat him out in camp as a true freshman, Bennett was the boy-wonder and heir-apparent at the QB position in Chip Kelly's Oregon offense. His tape isn't fantastic, but it does show some very favorable traits: Quick reading ability, very good pocket movement and ability to evade rushers, technically-sound footwork, and good velocity on his throws (nice quick snap) in spite of a low release point. Not without his faults, he's cut from that Brett Favre mold in terms of mindset - his playing style leads him to taking a lot of hits that aren't necessary and he's definitely a gunslinger. Most of his physical shortcomings can be overcome - his arm isn't likely to get much stronger, but that release-point can be fixed and that will improve both his ball-placement/accuracy and should help him get a bit more zip/control on his long passes, which have had a tendency to float on him. Mentally, it's a matter of wrangling him in and hoping he listens. Best fit is an uptempo West Coast Offense. Wouldn't be shocked to see Chip Kelly give him a late round look if he's not settled on Matt Barkley behind Bradford and Sanchez.

    [​IMG]

    Chris Bonner // Colorado State - Pueblo
    6'6.5" - 236 pounds

    LBC's Take: Bonner's gotten some publicity here and there with several "Best QB You've Never Heard of Articles" popping up from around November forward, but when you still see names of guys with lesser arms, arguably similar-at-best tape, and less projectable traits like Cody Fajardo, Brandon Bridge (who had me fooled until I got a better look at this season's tape), Connor Halliday, and Blake Sims getting more mentions, someone's just getting lazy at doing their job. Some of you who are more local to the SD area may remember him, he was that 6'6" (in high school) freshman starter at QB for Clairemont when they were going through all those coaching changes and kids were transferring left and right out of the program and over to James Madison.

    Beyond having legitimate pro size and a pro arm - the biggest concern is really level of competition, which shouldn't be underestimated (CSU Pueblo was D-2, which means Bonner saw a lot of windows that were a helluvalot larger than they'll be at the pro level even against 3rd-stringers) - there are a good many traits to like about the guy: Great work ethic and a dedicated student, he boxes (which speaks to both toughness and has helpd hone his footwork and body-mechanics in terms of throwing), he's played in multiple pro-concept schemes (i.e. a pro-style scheme which at various times used no-huddle, had Bonner calling plays at the line, working from under center, etc.). Given that he's a local kid who lists Rivers as one of his role models and he's got better innate footwork (the product of A LOT of training) than most QB's in this class to go with Flacco-like size, I'd be more than willing to give him the nod over Sorensen.

    Running Back:
    [​IMG]

    Josh Robinson // Mississippi State
    5'7.7" - 217 pounds

    LBC's Take: There's no denying that Robinson did himself no favors at the Combine. His 4.70s forty, 32" vertical jump, and 9'2" broad jump notches were among some of the worst for RB's assembled. But what the combine, when used properly, is supposed to do is give you pause to go back and look at the tape - and Robinson just has traits I flat out covet when it comes to runners. It's no surprise he fashions himself after Marshawn Lynch, because he runs a lot like him: Violent, consistently getting chunks of yards after contact, and just flat out doesn't quit. So I went back and looked at the tape of his combine workout. Amid that 4.7s forty was a 1.66 second 10-yard split - that's on par with a number of edge-rushers and only 3/100ths of a second slower in get-off than Melvin Gordon and T.J. Yeldon. Is he going to pull away from DB's in the open field with a great 2nd or 3rd gear? No. Does that completely negate his ability to break off big runs? Well... guys still have to actually tackle him, right? And as Robinson's tape shows, that's no easy task. All Robinson does is break tackles... and break tackles... and break tackles - and he does this in the SEC. The Kentucky game from this past year was insane to watch.

    Other traits I really love (and why you see me rank Robinson so highly in my RB rankings): Plus balance, very good vision, above-average pass-blocking ability, capable receiving threat out of the backfield, plus confidence and leadership traits, and extremely limited wear on his body (meaning he's got a lot to give before wearing down). I've got a firm Day 2 grade on him, so I consider being able to get him anywhere on Day 3 to be a legitimate steal.

    [​IMG]

    John Crockett // North Dakota State
    5'11.6" - 217 pounds

    LBC's Take: Every time this guy gets some pub, it seems like Big Draft (as we've come to call them among #DraftTwitter) goes out of their way to re-hype the bigger school guys like Artis-Payne or Buck Allen. Crockett's going to make an NFL roster. Barring injury he's going to make an impact while on that NFL roster, and I'm extremely confident in that. He really is the total package. This kind of prospect is why the free agent running back market has become so less valuable - because you've got FCS guys (granted, NDSU is the creme de la creme of FCS programs and has been for a while) like Crockett able to come in and contribute (from rotation to potentially growing into a much bigger role) from Day One.

    Folks may want to try and knock him for his 4.62 second forty. To that I direct people first to his 1.61 second 10-yard split time (better than Gordon, and dead-on-even with Duke Johnson) and then promptly to Crockett's tape - he plays faster than 4.62, and has a second gear that kicks in right around the 17-20 yard mark at which point he pulls away from defenders (watch last year's game vs Iowa State - he runs away from every level of that D1 defense). This is a back with fantastic vision and patience, and a great mind for the game - he recognizes when to put on the just and reacts quickly, planting a foot in the dirt and all-cylinders-GO! Moreover, this is a guy who is a 3-down back right now. He's heady and capable pass-pro and willing and productive receiver. If I'm making a major knock on him, it's that he's seen a lot of touches, but he's done so without picking up any significant injures aside from a few bumps and bruises, so it's not a huge concern for me - just may have an effect on his overall longevity.

    Wide Receiver:
    [​IMG]

    DeAndre Smelter // Georgia Tech
    6'2.4" - 226 pounds

    LBC's Take: I'm not quite in the camp that had he not torn his ACL late in the season that Smelter would be in consideration for a 1st round selection right now. It's possible, but I don't think, given the fact that - like pretty much every other Tech receiver - he will need development before being a major contributor, that he would have turned the combine quite on its head the way that has historically been necessary to garner 1st round consideration as a developmental receiver. In other words, he wasn't likely to run in the low 4.4's or measure in at 6'4"-plus while jumping completely out of the gym. That's not to say he doesn't "play" 4.4-fast or bigger than he is, or that he lacks the ability to consistently high-point balls... because on tape he does just that.

    To me, Smelter is what everyone was/is hoping for Ty Montgomery to be - save for the fact that despite both being baseball players Smelter showcases natural hands whereas Montgomery doesn't... at all. That baseball player mentality is on display as he demonstrates a trait I really love in receiving prospects: Snatching the ball out of the air. He's not the guy that's going to try and cradle the ball against his body to make the catch, he goes up and gets it and he plucks it. He also shows up on tape pulling away from DB's while in a footrace, so while I wouldn't have been shocked, if healthy, to have seen him only run in the low 4.5's to high 4.4's, at best, I'm not worried about him having the requisite speed to play on the outside at the next level.

    As with prior Ga Tech receivers - and any other receiver coming out of a triple-option offense - Smelter runs a rather limited route tree (slant, go-route, out, hitch, and dig), he is going to need more time to develop as a route-runner, but he has shown the kind of covetede YAC ability as well as a solid understanding of how to use his body to shield defenders, where he is ultra-competitive for the ball, to make him useful in the interim. The other perk to receivers coming out of Paul Johnson's scheme, in large part because Johnson demands it, is that they are aggressive and proficient run-blockers. The knee injury likely means that he'll miss 2015 training camp and start the season on the PUP, which likely means that any Year 1 production is bonus. However, he has shown to have all the traits necessary to start and be quite productive at the next level and is likely to be available late Day 2 or even into Day 3 because of the injury. The only receiver outside of the Big 3 that I have graded higher in this class that Smelter, if all are assumed healthy, is Tyler Lockett.

    [​IMG]

    Lemar Durant // Simon Fraser
    6'1.4" - 231 pounds

    LBC's Take: The projected #1 overall pick in the CFL draft, so the talent is there, but that's not completely surprising as Durant originally began his college career at Nevada on a Chris Ault coached team that saw him competing for touches with current Dolphin Rishard Matthews and this guy from Turlock, CA named Colin Kaepernick. The physical traits are there - sub-4.5 speed, a big body (proportionately he's build like Andre Johnson is, just an inch shorter), big hands, and a good set of feet on him. Level of competition is obviously a concern, given that the NFL is big step up from programs like Azusa Pacific, Dixie State, and Humboldt State, but that's why Durant is a guy who, if he finds his way onto a team, will do so as a late Day 3 pick or priority UDFA.

    His route-running could use some polish as he has a tendency to round off his angles, but the potential to grow and become quite good is there; he has legitimate running-back-like cuts with the ball in his hands... and it doesn't hurt that he's built like one as well. Need to show better consistency plucking the ball out of the air with his hands rather than basket-catching - a good chunk of this can be eliminated if he learns to time his jumps better so that he high points the ball rather than catching it on his descent against his body. His hands are there and they're nice and soft, he just has to learn to use them better.
     
    Last edited: Mar 21, 2015
  4. The LBC

    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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  5. The LBC

    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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  6. Lance19

    Lance19 BoltTalker

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  7. SuperCharger92

    SuperCharger92 Winners Win

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    Just a question.. Would anybody be opposed to taking a QB in the middle rounds? Rivers is a free agent in 2016, window closing, might be time to start grooming a QB. Just throwing it out there..
     
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  8. The LBC

    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    I'm of the opinion that teams that have the luxury of doing so (i.e. already have a franchise QB and don't have so many needs that they're like the Raiders and need to scrounge players that will see a good chunk of early minutes out of their late round picks) should be buying a lottery ticket on a QB at least every other year if they can. With the amount of underclassmen that declare nowadays, draft classes are heavily saturated and push quality players into priority free agency. Meanwhile, even if you already have a franchise QB a player who other clubs suspect might be one can yield a nice return on investment (see Whitehurst, Charlie; Cassel, Matt; Schaub, Matt).

    Frankly though, you don't make this kind of move with the aim of an eventual replacement to your aging starter (very rarely does this happen unless you make a luxury - or literally straight value - pick of a QB who falls out of the top of the 1st round even though he had the talent to go there (Rodgers, Derek Carr, Teddy Bridgewater). Russell Wilson's and Tom Brady's are extreme rarities (and both of them were speculative pickups); even Brees was the very first pick of the 2nd round. You're making these picks on speculation.

    More likely, when Rivers hangs them up we'll either suck badly enough for a year that we'll be picking in the Top 10 (with our tendency for injuries that likely means Top 5 for us as that's usually what puts a poor-performing team over the hump from bad to baaaaaad) and we'll be in position to draft the next in line of Chargers QB's. As the Zach Mettenberger's, Kyle Orton's, Matt Schaub's, and Josh McCowns's of this league are showing - the highest-percentage shot at a QB that can take you to championships is a blue-chipper. There are very few exceptions to this - Brady (whose very much the anomaly), Brees (who, let's be honest, even in his "good" year here wasn't the Drew Brees he was when he joined forces with Sean Payton and his "go ahead and be a gunslinger" scheme), Kurt Warner (different type of league back then when he would have been a rookie, too), and Russell Wilson (would have been a blue-chip, Top 10 prospect if he was 2-3 inches taller).

    When was the last time anyone remembers a "developed" mid-round QB actually panning out to anything more than backup-caliber player for the team that drafted them outside of Russell Wilson? Kaepernick - maybe, but you look at how under-developed he still is as an out-and-out quarterback (he now makes 2 reads before taking off and running as opposed to 1 prior) and Alex Smith was never the current (soon-to-be-former) Head Coaching/Management combinations handpicked QB. Ryan Mallet was traded for peanuts. Brock Osweiler can't even get on the field to bat clean-up for Peyton. Jury's still out on Logan Thomas, but Whis had a litany of mid-round guys he tried to develop in Arizona who never paned out (John Skelton, for instance).

    Best case scenario, if/when Rivers retires the team and coaching staff is in such a respected place that a vet in the twilight of his prime (I'm not even talking a Peyton - since Peyton in free agency is a damn purple unicorn type scenario) comes available (see Palmer, Carson; Warner, Kurt; McNair, Steve) and we present the best opportunity for that one last run.

    That all said, this isn't the QB class I'd want to be investing a mid-rounder into a lottery ticket on. Late round pick, sure... depending on who else was available at the pick that could satisfy needs elsewhere. After Mariota and Winston (who while on-the-field he's everything you could want, off-the-field - from what I've heard from sources I trust - the poop hasn't even hit the fan yet on the stuff that front offices may hold against him) there's pretty slim pickings - some guys with tools but also noticeable flaws that aren't 100% easily fixed.
     
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  9. Bruce Daniel

    Bruce Daniel BoltTalker

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    Thanks for posting LBC, I enjoy reading these. Couple quick questions though (1) no Buck Allen in the running back rankings? (2) I feel strongly the Chargers will go for playmakers early in the draft. This team lacks speed and it shows. If the Chargers miss out on cooper, white and Parker (probable imo) are there any other wrs you would take in the first? Funchess is extremely raw and strong doesn't seem to have the speed we lack. (3) would you consider melvin Gordon in the first if available?
     
  10. charger1993

    charger1993 bad motherfucker

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    no to the first 2,
    3. Is possible but I doubt it we'll take gurley before him.
    We most likely will take defense first or oline man . I think it'll be rt, lg, wr,cb, olb,dt, wr,
     
  11. The LBC

    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    To address them directly:
    1) I think USC and Sark are going to believe they can make a NC push next season. And Sark was quite good at getting his underclassmen to stay at Washington, so I'm not projecting Buck to declare (he doesn't exactly have a ton of tread on the tires). If he (or any underclassman I'm not projecting to come out) does, I'll adjust my rankings accordingly.

    2) I think we need to address the trenches - period. AJ set us behind in that area that two years removed from him we're still playing catch-up because he didn't even really leave us with much in the way of viable depth (we had to go out and acquire that via free agency and the waiver wire). I'm not saying Rivers doesn't need an additional playmaker or two, but they're far less valuable to us if we don't have adequate hosses in the trenches to allow them the opportunity to even make plays. I won't be disappointed in the slightest if all three of our first three selections are 300+ pounders. I think "Duke" Williams had 1st round talent, but with his knee injury towards the end of the season I wouldn't spend a 1st on him (he'd be someone I'd be hoping, like KA did, to fall to the 3rd and whom I'd willingly trade up to get if he was still there). Other than that, no... I don't see 1st round talent (right now) in any of the others outside of DGB, who I wouldn't touch with a 10-foot poll because he's shown to consistently be a selfish moron who may well be "the next Josh Gordon" in more ways than one. Jalen Strong has deficiencies that may well never solve themselves (i.e. he may not physically be capable of it) that limit him having the complete skill-set necessary to merit anything more than fringe-1st selection (I've heard from multiple sources - I hate using that word because none of my convo's with these guys are on the record since I'm not a journalist - that the scouting community is split right down the middle on him: Half love him, half would touch him till Day 3).

    3) I just don't see the value in 1st round runners anymore unless you're getting Adrian Peterson - the guy who can literally do it all (and even really AP wasn't perfect because he's fairly mediocre as a pass-catcher - good with the ball in his hands, but those hands weren't outstanding). The difference between the quality of runner you can get in the 3rd-5th round versus the guys you have to spend a 1st or 2nd on in order to acquire is pretty marginal these days (easily made up for with scheme and talent on the OL). As to Gordon specifically, he definitely could be another Jamaal Charles, but you have to consider what makes Charles such a commodity - it's not his ability to break it on any given play (yes, that's a small part of it), his biggest selling point is that he's consistently producing high yards per carry (actually the highest, or second-highest in NFL history in terms of career YPC if I'm not mistaken). I'm not saying Gordon isn't a very good prospect, but as Montee Ball showed - Wisconsin's line has a habit of making runners look better (i.e. more productive than they may actually be); it's a program habitually churning out pro-caliber OL and using a pro-blocking scheme. Melvin Gordon behind our current (even if we assume a Hardwick retirement, all other players healthy, and assign optimal fits) OL would likely disappoint people expecting him to produce in the pro's like he's done in the NCAA.

    I'd also throw in that I don't expect McCoy to ever go full-blown feature-back with this offense. It's just not a staple in his offense. In Denver, he rotated the backs as much as he was able; the issue was that Peyton's scheme was to run up-tempo and no-huddle as much as possible, which limits the ability to swap runners except following huge gains where there's time left by the officiating crew moving and resetting the chains. In Carolina, McCoy (QB coach there yes, but he had John Fox's ear and McCoy is very much Fox's protege) and the Panthers were very much RBBC; heck, they drafted two 1st round RB's (2 of the higher touted prospects in their respective classes) along with spending mid-round picks on 2 others and the rushing offense still never took off much because the OL was base average (the Jeff Otah pick never panned out, their guards got old and fell off, and a line cannot survive alone on Jordan Gross and Ryan Khalil).
     
  12. The LBC

    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    Fluker's not going to play RG or any guard spot most likely. People need to get that out of their heads. We ask our guards to pull - Fluker doesn't have the feet and isn't terribly good on the move. He also takes most snaps in a two-point (not three-point) stance which he wouldn't have the luxury of playing on the interior.
     
  13. NYCharger

    NYCharger BoltTalker

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    Do you think this will be an offensive tackle heavy first round? I think I've see half of your top 20 mocked in the first round at least a couple times each. If so, does that counsel towards us taking a guy in the first or perhaps waiting to take advantage of all the depth?

    Also, why so low on Ereck Flowers?
     
  14. matilack

    matilack Take A Knee McCree!!!

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    My first initial top 5 of 2015 (pick 17)

    1. CB Marcus Peters - Now looking more like he won't fall this far, with Peters, Verrett, and Flowers we'd be set.
    2. DT Eddie Goldman - We desperately need D-line talent.
    3. C/OG/OT - Cameron Erving - Versatile, super aggressive, mobile. I would usually never EVER approve of an interior OL at this point in the draft but I think he can be special if Joe D can polish him up.
    4. DE/OLB - Dante Fowler - Little bit of a stretch that he falls this far. Can never have too many pass rushers.
    5. RB - Melvin Gordon - A bit of an impulse pick, but there is an Adrian Peterson-esc quality to his game.

    H.M. CB - Trae Waynes - Sure tackler, good instincts, even if we can keep Flowers we still need a CB or two.
     
  15. The LBC

    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    Trae Waynes would get eaten alive in our defensive scheme unless Pags and Milus suddenly decide to let our CB's play up in the grill of receivers and press - which is a less-than-10% likelihood. Wayne's hips are sketchy and when he's not able to slow the receiver's initial release off the line so that he can do his little shuffle-step transition, he's constantly playing from behind which is never good for a CB. Today's match-up against Antwan Goodley was indicative of this (and he's had multiple games like it over the past 2 seasons, so it's not like this was a lightning-striking type incident) - Receivers who can get separation with quick, decisive cuts and sound route-running eat Wayne's lunch... eerily similar to Justin Gilbert from this past draft class except I'm not sure he has Gilbert's lateral agility if I'm being honest.

    The #1 thing you want in a CB, especially one you're going to ask to play off-man like we do habitually, is smooth hips. The value of spending a 1st round pick on Waynes, as it relates to plugging him into our scheme and the kind of immediate results it would reap, is pretty poor when you consider that guys like D'Joun Smith, Kevin Johnson, and Quentin Rollins (who all have superior hips and are still just as "big" just not quite as tall - and again, vertical leaping ability and arm length can nullify the difference of a couple inches in height rather quickly) will all be there in the 2nd, and that failing Cam Thomas (who is the exact same size as Waynes with honestly a better frame to go along with better hips) should well be there in the 3rd.

    If you draft Erving, you play him on the interior, it's just been night and day the difference in his play since he was transitioned to center. He was a passable to "good" OT, he's been a standout center and playing in a phone booth really seems to suit him. Really kind of depends on how and where we end up looking to address on the line. I'm fairly convinced that Rob Havenstein is an Alex Boone clone - and while he hasn't played guard (as Boone hadn't when he was a rookie - being that he played OT for Ohio State), he's coming out of Wisconsin's blocking scheme which is identical to Joe D's, so he has some familiarity with what the responsibility of the guards in that system is supposed to be. If we're aiming to slot in a RG, I tend to prefer Havenstein or Laken Tomlinson. If we're looking to fill a void at LG, then I tend to lean more towards Erving (or Watt with Erving slotting in at center) or La'el Collins (he has some handwork issues to sort out, but they're minor and he's come a long way with them in the past year anyway - but he's the sort of mauler with attitude that we've lacked since Dielman was forced into retirement).

    Go try to get hold of tape of Zach Hodges and watch - you'll likely fall in love with him the same way I have. He's scheme-proof - can play multiple linebacker positions in just about any scheme, still needs some refinement, but is a legitimate speed-to-power rusher and is smart as hell (his on-the-spot diagnosing abilities really stand out). I'm also really, really hoping Jordan Phillips lasts to us - it's definitely possible. The guy's about the closest thing to a Dontari Poe clone that's come out in a while (arguably better lateral quick's) and he's further along in his development than Poe was as a prospect.
     
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  16. The LBC

    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    I'm low on Ereck Flowers because he's a massive project who needs to have a lot of his mechanics retooled. Guy's got tons of natural ability, but he's coasted on it throughout his entire collegiate career and doesn't appear to have a ton of interest into being a technician - and he's going to find that the saturation point where everyone has more substantial athletic ability in the pro's comes a helluvalot quicker than it does in college. He's also not terribly flexible - especially in the lower body which is a killer for OL, and especially OT's - and not terribly strong in the lower body either. He's carrying too much weight around the middle currently and totally reliant on his punch and initial contact - doesn't really reset terribly well. You take all that and combine it with the fact that he's really miscast as a LOT at Miami and is likely to pull an Orlando Franklin and be transitioned to ROT (and possibly even kicked inside to guard if/when he finally builds up his lower body strength) in the pro's and it's just not worth that high of an investment to me, relative to other guys who can likely play both tackle positions.

    As to a tackle-heavy 1st round, I think it depends on who all declares. I'd say at least 3 go in the 1st round and it could be as many as 5 if you figure that some teams may draft guys that are tackles to plug in at guard until further notice. TJ Clemmings is far and away the top OT in the class and should not only be the 1st tackle off the board but rightfully should go in the Top 5. His feet are just sublime - I went back and watched the Duke game and on an inside zone play to his side he's seriously getting two steps taken before the defender even gets one full one in. He's got room to grow and just has a really good head on his shoulders - reminds me a ton of Tyron Smith coming out of USC. Ronnie Stanley is an interesting case - his potential is massive and there's little reason to believe he won't get there, but his upper body isn't developed enough yet and he's just not as strong as you'd like him to be to not have initial struggles as a rookie. I kind of liken him to Nate Solder - ideally you'd want to redshirt him as a 3rd tackle and allow him to get stronger, but given proper development and time there's little reason to believe he doesn't come out of this class as one of the top 3 tackles by the time 2nd contracts come due.

    Collins is going in the 1st, it's just a matter of when. He's simply too versatile and has too much good tape not to. I liken him to this year's Zack Martin, it really just will come down to who feels like he's the best fit for them, but I'll be truly shocked if he falls out of the Top 20 picks (I could realistically see all three of these tackles going in the Top 10-12 picks, even with multiple QB's being selected there as well). Scherff's a bit of a wild card - he projects better as a guard to me than a tackle (in fact, I'd wager his better fit at tackle is on the right side versus the left, not unlike fellow Hawkeye Brian Bulaga), but a team could certainly draft him with aspirations of trying him at tackle and figuring to slot him in at guard if all else fails. I don't know that Erving goes Top 15, but he's in play at pretty much any pick following where I'm concerned. Centers have been devalued a bit lately, but that's also because we really haven't had a high-caliber center prospect (to the level of a Nick Mangold or Alex Mack) since Maurkice Pouncey. I liken Erving more to Seattle's Max Unger (who actually also played some tackle early in his collegiate career at Oregon) - value is the 2nd round, but need could push a playoff team to stretch a little early for him (I wouldn't be shocked if he was even in play for New Orleans at #13, but my gut says they go defense there and look to land a center with their 2nd).

    Then it really comes down to who among the playoff teams feel the need to address what and where. Carolina and Denver are two teams I could most definitely see prioritizing OL among their draft needs - but both are also in a position where they may be able to solve that need more immediately through veteran free agency. Detroit seems fairly well set at tackle, but their late season struggles can be directly attributed to the line's inability to keep Stafford clean. And while Baltimore's line appears to have finally gelled into a solid unit, Ozzie Newsome is a BPA drafter, so if he sees the value there, you can never rule out him taking it.
     
  17. Bruce Daniel

    Bruce Daniel BoltTalker

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    This is my opinion but I feel like after the senior bowl and combine these players will be off the board by the time we pick
    Jameis Winston
    Marcus Mariota
    Randy Gregory
    Leonard Williams
    Amari Cooper
    Kevin White
    Devante Parker
    Ronnie Stanley
    TJ Clemmings
    La'el Collins
    Bud Dupree
    Dante Fowler jr

    That's 12 guys I don't think will be there when we pick. If one of these guys slips thru (minus the qbs) I think it's a no brainer pick. That leaves these guys to pick from (obviously four more guys will be taken before we pick)

    Brandon Scherff- prob not a LT, so if he's a guard or RT can you justify the value here? Gets a ++++ for me for nasty demeanor

    Cedric Ogbuehi - oozing athleticism, but failed at LT at A&M this year. Played much better after moving back to RT. Has the footwork, needs weightroom and work with his hands/punch. I'm torn here, I like Ogbuehi, he could make a lot of sense at RT for us and we could groom him for the LT spot in the future.

    Cameron Erving - LBC already discussed him earlier. I like the versatility particularly inside. But at 17? When you can get Dismukes, Grassu, Tomlinson, Cann, Sambrailo and others in the second or third? Not sure the value is there

    Vic Beasley - God I love this guy, but more suited for the Von Miller role in a 43

    Marcus Peters - gonna depend on character for this guy. Has the talent. Right now tho I doubt ownership would sign off on questionable character guys

    Landon Collins - doubt we put that much money into the safety position with weddle there

    Melvin Gordon - All depends on how you value the rb position. Like the guards do you think you can get similar production from Abdullah, Johnson, Coleman, ajayi, booker or others in the 2nd or 3rd. I think Gordon is special and would have no problem if he was the pick

    Arik Armstead - here's my early dark horse if we don't go OL. Really think he's gonna rise in the next couple months and wouldn't be surprised if he's gone when we pick. Freak athlete and you could argue 5-tech is as big a need as oline is on this team. Reyes, Palepoi, Lissemore, Carrethers those guys are fine as depth/rotational but we could use a difference maker with Liuget.

    Eddie Goldman/Danny Shelton - wouldn't have a problem with either of these guys. Everyone knows it's long overdue for a O-tech on this D.

    Andrus Peat - I have him returning to school
    Shane Ray- I think he's grossly overrated right now. I see Vernon Gholston
    Trae Waynes - not a scheme fit for us
    Todd Gurley- love love love this guy but we don't have the luxury of waiting a year on him

    So what do you guys think? If that's the pool we're fishing from on draft day who would you like to see? Are there others I'm leaving out? For the record I would rank these guys (big board) like this

    Armstead
    Erving
    Gordon
    Ogbuehi
    Scherff
    Goldman
    Shelton
     
    Last edited: Jan 4, 2015
  18. The LBC

    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    Generally I'm in agreement. Scherff reminds me of Marshal Yanda - better fit at guard, but probably can move over and play ROT in a pinch. I get that people will say "well, you can always get interior OL later in the draft," but what we're almost assuredly not going to be able to do is get an upper-echelon prospect at those positions (arguably our biggest need on the team as a whole) "later in the draft" because more often than not the teams that are picking high are doing so because their trenches suck too or they've recently invested in a franchise signal caller and are going to bend over backwards to protect him.

    I'm just not impressed with Ogbuehi the way that some others are; he reminds me too much of Luke Joeckel (who I was similarly more down on than some). His handwork is terrible - his punch hits like a 10 year old girl's. And for being as "athletic" as he is, his balance and footwork really don't show it. i'm also just not sure I see the fight in him. Guys like Sambrailo may have athletic deficiencies, but you can't teach that "mean-streak" attitude that they've got. There are just certain qualities I'll always covet higher than others for specific positions: I want OL with a mean-streak; I want long, agile pass-rushers; and I want WR's who consistently get strong YAC - all for example.

    I know this will be an unpopular opinion, but I stand by it and my track record with DB's is strong: Landon Collins is overrated... like Day 2 prospect overrated.

    When all is said and done, Arik Armstead is likely a Top 10 pick - Top 15 at worst. You simply don't find that kind of athleticism at that size - and where the guy also has production to go with it - very often. And in the 1st round in particular, there's an increasing trend of swinging for the fences on the high-ceiling over high-floor prospects. So I won't be surprised in the slightest to see Armstead drafted ahead of Goldman and any other 5-Tech/3-Tech not named Leonard Williams.

    We do agree that Melvin Gordon is special (really my only issue with taking him at #17 is that I'm supremely convinced that with Coleman likely not able to work out at the combine, he'll fall to the 3rd which is KA-type value) and Shane Ray isn't (his closing speed is pedestrian at best). I just don't see Shelton as as much of a 0-Tech as I do a 5-Tech. He could perhaps develop into a 0-Tech, but there are pad-level issues where I just have trouble not seeing him getting put on skates be pro-level double-teams (I've seen him stalled by guys much smaller than him because he consistently gets too high). Part of it is a discipline issue too; he's very disruptive, but he seems much more intent on penetrating rather than holding the POA on obvious running downs/sets and sells out his teammates in those instances. The reason I'm a Jordan Phillips supporter over Shelton is largely because, while Phillips also has some of these shortcomings, he has a considerably higher ceiling than Shelton does - so if I'm going to risk the floor I want the higher potential pay-off.
     
  19. charger1993

    charger1993 bad motherfucker

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    I agree with everything you said, for me free agency is gonna control my draft board the most. If we can sign a good quality rt then no need for ogembi. I'm not high on ogembi but I think him and fluker side by side could pan out. Honestly if we don't go tackle, or dt, I think we take Melvin Gordon. It'd just make sense. Melvin, bo, wood head . It'd work. But it hinges on who we get in free agency
     
  20. Bruce Daniel

    Bruce Daniel BoltTalker

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    For the record I think Ray, Waynes and Collins are all vastly overrated right now, in the sense of guys you are seeing mocked in the top 20. I only put their names up because I figured the casual fan has seen their names and would wonder.

    I completely agree on Armstead. I think he'll enjoy the same rise as JJ Watt and Aldon Smith leading up to the draft. Probably dreaming he will make it to us, but I admittedly didn't have the balls to put him in the "definitely won't make it to us" category

    My issues with Joeckel were footwork related. My issues with Ohbuehi, and you hit on it are more hands/punch. I'll even give you demeanor although I don't think it's as important for a LT as the guard positions. I straddle the fence with him. An oline coach would have to be convinced his issues are correctable, he has some tools to work with, just not sure I'd be willing to gamble on that at 17.

    I love Tevin Coleman. I have him as my 3rd rated back. Hurts him he went to Indiana in the ways of hype but I fully expect him off the board in top half of the second.

    My only issue with Jordan Phillips is the back. Backs and feet scare me and even more so pertaining to men of size. I hear ya on Shelton, valid points. Pad level and penetrating issues are correctsble tho. He does have the passion and size for the position and maybe some pro level coaching and accountability could fix those issues.

    So if we knock out Armstead, and quite frankly I see Beasley going early too, that leaves my list looking like this

    Erving
    Scherff
    Gordon
    Goldman
    Shelton

    Who would you go with there? Is there anyone else available worthy of the pick I'm missing?

    I personally think La'el Collins would be the perfect pick for us. Plug and play anywhere except center. Plug him in at guard and let him slide over to left tackle when king is done
     
  21. SuperCharger92

    SuperCharger92 Winners Win

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    How about drafting Ronnie Stanley in the 1st, Christian Lombard in the 4th, re-signing King Dunlap? Line would look like:

    LT. KING DUNLAP.
    LG. CHRISTIAN LOMBARD.
    C. CHRIS WATT.
    RG. DJ FLUKER.
    RT. RONNIE STANLEY.

    Let Rinehart and Troutman battle it out for a back up spot at OG and tender Robinson to back up Watt at C.

    I'd like playmakers at RB and WR in the 2nd and 3rd, like a Tevin Coleman and Stefon Diggs type of selections. But, I really do want a DE. I guess we just have to wait and see what we do in free agency and the re-signing period. And also, if Johnson and Freeney do retire we have some work to do at OLB.
     
  22. matilack

    matilack Take A Knee McCree!!!

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    I'm pretty sure Peat declared for the draft recently.

    Good stuff man.
     
  23. Bruce Daniel

    Bruce Daniel BoltTalker

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    Thanks Matilack, Peat officially declared today for the draft. I knew he asked for a review from the draft committee but I thought he was still leaning toward staying in school. Good news for us, hopefully it pushes another quality olineman down the board!
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  24. SuperCharger92

    SuperCharger92 Winners Win

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    LBC, 3rd round rolls around, you have a decision to make on either Antwaan Goodley or Stefon Diggs, who do you take and why? I expect both to have very good combines and workouts by the way.
     
  25. The LBC

    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    Ronnie Stanley would get murdered at RT. He needs to fill out and develop and if he comes out (which honestly I don't think he will at this point with Peat having declared) a team is just going to have to either ride out with him at LT or more likely "Nate Solder" him and put him as a 3rd tackle/jumbo-TE for a year while he hits the weight room and S&C program.

    Stanley is a fine draft pick for the future, but a mediocre one if you're looking to improve the line Day One and improve Rivers' 2015 chances of making a championship run. I also think in the rare even Fluker is moved to guard it'll be on the left side, not the right. We pull our RG a decent amount and they're not going to send Fluker with his heavy feet on the run. Fluker as a guard is a complete unknown, sure he has potential there, but reality is that just about every team (all save usually around 3-5 in the league at a given time) has at least one spot on the line they're having to "protect." Fluker may just be ours. Rather than moving him from guard, put a dominant RG next to him, and protect DJ with chips.
     
  26. The LBC

    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    Neither, because there's likely better value elsewhere if those are the extent of the best WR's left on the board.
     
  27. SuperCharger92

    SuperCharger92 Winners Win

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    Could we possibly draft Hronsis Grasu in the 3rd, Jake Fisher in the 2nd? I expect both of their stocks to start rising soon.
     
  28. The LBC

    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    Both will likely make it to those respective rounds. Will they make it to our picks in those respective rounds? I'm not as convinced. Deep OT class this year. Honestly, with the fact that there are legitimately 3-4 guys who have a better-than-average chance to start at center by the end of their rookie contract in this class makes it a deeper center class than we've seen in a while too. Lots of moving pieces still between now and May. But yes, if both occupy spots on the Senior Bowl roster it's going to help their stock and potentially make it more difficult for them to fall to us in those Day 2 rounds. Also, Fisher's going to see at minimum a slight uptick in where he's drafted based off the fact that Ogbuehi is going to take a bit of a tumble with his recent ACL tear. He'll still be ready for training (not rookie) camp most likely, but already with questions about whether some of his negatives are really even coachable, I've got to feel Ogbuehi's likely to take a bit of a drop down - certainly out of the 1st round (I had a 2nd round grade on him any way) and possibly out of Day 2 entirely.

    Thing is too, I'm souring on Grasu lately. Not necessarily for anything physically per se, more just that what I prefer (and IMHO what this club seriously needs) is a center who is a mean SOB and that's not Grasu. And mean streaks really can't be taught. Hroniss is an outstanding person and, technically, a very competent blocker - but he's also a very nice guy... and I mean that in the worst way that "nice guy" can be a bad thing. Typically with Samoans you get two types of personality: Big, happy guy or Big guy who is happy and calm off the field and a hard-as-nails, nasty SOB in anything competitive (see 99% of Pacific Islander rugby players). You definitely want the later protecting your quarterback.

    Also, I'm aiming to round out my prospect rankings in the next couple days.
     
    Last edited: Jan 13, 2015
  29. SuperCharger92

    SuperCharger92 Winners Win

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    I like Grasu typically for the ZBS we run. Even though it's more like a power-ZBS, I still like his quickness and strength. Kid can get to the 2nd level with ease at times.

    Even though Fisher is an ideal lock at RT in the NFL, I think he could be an exceptional RG in our system. He isn't exactly the Joe D'Alessandris prototype, but the kid has at least 20-25 pounds to fill in on his body without really harming his game. He's got a bit of a mean streak as well.

    I want these OL with mean streaks too. Give me a few examples of guys who possess that this year among the OL. We honestly miss that physicality Kris Dielman, Nick Hardwick and even Jeromey Clary brought.
     
  30. The LBC

    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    I honestly think Fisher can play LOT if it came to it. He's not always pretty there, but he's effective and really that's all that matters. Obviously only one game, but he has considerably more in his sample size this season and last, but for the most part he neutralized Joey Bosa (who would be a Top 5 pick if he could come out right now... though he also looks like he's got mad Adderal jawgrind). Fisher is kind of equal parts Jason Fabini and Andrew Whitworth to me - doesn't look the part of the prototype pro LOT, but he can play it.

    As far as the guys who play mean in this class (and some of them may have other shortcomings, but most of them are coachable so I'd be willing to chance it on the mean streak): Fisher (already covered him), La'el Collins, T.J. Clemmings (one of the reasons I have him statTy Sambrailo, Scherff (for the most part, I think if he was moved inside and didn't have to ratchet it back some being mindful of his kickstep, it'd really cut loose), Darrian Miller (Kentucky; I need to add him above), Brandon Vitabile (one of the big reasons he's in my Top 5 C's, he looks to BURY guys), B.J. Finney, Cam Erving (though limited sample-size; shows up much more at center than it did at OT), AJ Cann, Cole Manhart, Cole Manhart, did I mention Cole Manhart (kid is just grit and sledge-hammer personified)?

    Guys who I've notably dinged for not possessing this quality (to the extent it's almost the inverse): Cedric Ogbuehi (literally, he loves to give up his chestplate), Andrus Peat, Grasu, Arie Kouandijo, Rob Havenstein, Sean Hickey, Jamon Brown (reports are he's even getting chewed out by Shrine Game coaches for "lovetapping" with his punch), Corey Robinson.
     
    Last edited: Jan 13, 2015

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