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LLV week FIVE - SDC Week!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Discussion in 'Chargers Fan Forum' started by leisure, Sep 25, 2007.

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  1. Electric Chair

    Electric Chair New Member

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    leisure, take the Colts -9.5. The Broncos are not a very good football team. The game is in Indy. The Colts traditionally STOMP the Donks. Get it before it steams to 10.
     
  2. in_a_days

    in_a_days dgaf

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    me likey :yes:
     
  3. Thread_Killer

    Thread_Killer Well-Known Member

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    That was gonna be my suggestion for a lock.
     
  4. WonderSlug

    WonderSlug New Member

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    Has anyone done the math of how much you would have made just by putting $500 on each NFL game each week so far just on the team you thought would win, regardless of points? Moneyline only.

    So, instead of betting "Bills +17 versus Pats", just bet "Pats to win", etc.

    That's $500 x 16 games = $8000 a week.

    I'd be interested in seeing how much of a return on that $24,000 total gambled would have been.
     
  5. Carrie1219

    Carrie1219 Banned Banned

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    That's my game plan starting this week---but using alot less than $500/bet... Hoping to hit a couple of dogs this way, like I did last night... :yes:
     
  6. in_a_days

    in_a_days dgaf

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    Big problem there Slug is that Moneyline bets are weighted by the odds. So the teams that are heavy favorites to win are only going to pay back a couple hundred dollars on your $500 bet. I don't know what the odds were on the Pats M/L, but it was probably somewhere close to -800 so your $500 bet would have netted you about $40.
     
  7. WonderSlug

    WonderSlug New Member

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    Yup, it sounds good.

    The Colts will definitely win at home (92% chance), and winning by at least 10 sounds very good.
     
  8. WonderSlug

    WonderSlug New Member

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    Yeah, but isn't getting, say, a 12.5% return on a near sure thing worth it?

    If you know for sure that say, the Pats will beat the Bills, regardless of spread, why not plunk down $1000 and get $125 of what is essentially "free money"?
     
  9. Carrie1219

    Carrie1219 Banned Banned

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    Try doing it in a teaser... You'll make alot more money.
     
  10. in_a_days

    in_a_days dgaf

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    You would think so Slug, but the bottom line is that the books are just too damn good. The payout will always be just behind the realistic probability of a player win.
     
  11. WonderSlug

    WonderSlug New Member

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    Versus losing $500 going the Bills +17 route when there was a very good chance that the Bills wouldn't stay within 17 points of the Pats? :icon_huh:
     
  12. in_a_days

    in_a_days dgaf

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    :icon_eek:

    Just FYI Slug, that means you would have had to bet $1800 to win $100. A $500 bet on the Pats to win would have paid $27.
     
  13. in_a_days

    in_a_days dgaf

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    But there wasn't a very good chance they would stay within 17 points. There was about a 50/50 chance it would stay within 17 points. The books make their money off of having the same number of betters on each side of the action so they're trying to find the point where both sides look equally attractive to the betting public.
     
  14. WonderSlug

    WonderSlug New Member

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    Yeah, I just wanted to see how it would have worked out the past 3 weeks playing moneyline only.

    I'm sure there are people making money on it, just not as much as some here would want.
     
  15. in_a_days

    in_a_days dgaf

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    :yes:

    Mostly casino owners and the CEOs of offshore sportsbooks.
     
  16. in_a_days

    in_a_days dgaf

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    Texans -3 @ ATL = free money
     
  17. Electric Chair

    Electric Chair New Member

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    Sluggo, all that would take is one bad upset loss and you are screwed for the year. It's a terrible idea. It's like betting on Mike Tyson fights back in the day.
     
  18. WonderSlug

    WonderSlug New Member

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    I had very good confidence that the Pats would crush the Bills by 20+ points, and cited all the reasons why in last week's thread.

    So, when a person has that good feeling that the books may have underestimated one of the teams, why not play on it?

    Just like I think the Bolts will beat the Chiefs by at least 13 points this Sunday.

    The Chiefs only have two decent receivers, and their offense sucks so bad that neither Larry Johnson nor Tony G have any TDs yet. You know, their two main scoring threats.

    The Pats and Packers had 4 good receivers going up against our secondary, with excellent QBs throwing to them.

    The Chiefs have only Tony G and Dwayne Bowe with over-the-hill Damon Huard and "I want my mama" Brodie Croyle as the QBs. Double-team the receivers and let the rest of the defense focus on stopping Larry. What else is there for the Chiefs?

    So, even though the "books" say 50/50 on Chargers -12.5, I actually think there's at least a 75% chance the Bolts win by 13 points. If the game was in KC, I'd have less confidence, but it's here in San Diego.
     
  19. in_a_days

    in_a_days dgaf

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    While we're on the subject of heavy fav. moneylines, I was curious about figuring out a payout on a ML parlay. Like if I pick three teams I think are locks to win in a week how can I use their moneyline odds to figure out what the payout will be on a ML parlay?
     
  20. PhilipRivers#1

    PhilipRivers#1 BoltTalker

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    NICE !!! :icon_banana: :icon_toast:
     
  21. in_a_days

    in_a_days dgaf

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    No offense Slug, but this is all probably because you don't have a ton of experience trying to play against sports books.

    If you go ahead and play based on that feeling you have you're going to find that about half the time that feeling is right and about half the time it is wrong. I understand you had a strong inkling on that NE game, but track your leans against the spread for the season and you're going to find that you hit somewhere between 45%-55%. If the sports books say San Diego -12.5 I can assure you there is no better than a 60% chance they win by more than that, regardless of what your gut may say.
     
  22. WonderSlug

    WonderSlug New Member

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    Hmm.. the Texans suffered some big injuries versus the Colts. Also, Harrington is starting to play better.

    But, giving up only 3 points to the winless Falcons sounds good though.
     
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