1. Welcome to San Diego Chargers NFL Football Podcast and Forum!

    Bolt Talk is one of the largest online communities for the San Diego Chargers. We host a regular Chargers podcast during the season. You are currently viewing our community forums as a guest user.

    Create an Account or

    Having an account grants you additional privileges, such as creating and participating in discussions. Furthermore, we hide most of the ads once you register as a member!
    Dismiss Notice

Loren's 2016 Draft Grades

Discussion in 'Chargers Fan Forum' started by AnteaterCharger, May 3, 2016.

  1. AnteaterCharger

    AnteaterCharger Calibrating Bolttalk, Podcast by Podcast Staff Member Super Moderator Podcaster

    Joined:
    Jan 19, 2006
    Messages:
    19,111
    Ratings:
    +2,930
    2016 Chargers Draft Review

    By: Loren S. Casuto


    1st Round: Joey Bosa, Defensive End from Ohio State


    Had you polled 100 Charger fans/Bloggers/NFL Experts, I doubt there were more than 2 who thought Bosa would be a Charger. While many thought he could only be a 3-4 OLB, the Chargers run enough 4-3/Nickel formations that a standard 4-3 DE has a lot of value. John Pagano has already announced they will ask the 270lb Bosa to bulk up closer to 280 to be closer to a normal 3-4 DE as well. Most importantly the Chargers get one of the most dominant players in college football over the past two seasons.


    Bosa was the best player both starting and ending the 2016 CFB draft season. He is the complete package as a defensive player with a great frame (6’6 275lbs), impressive power both standing and from speed, and advanced understanding of hand placement and tactics. He was often double or triple teamed and still made plays. His strongest skill though is his run stopping, he’s an absolute beast there. On the negative he doesn’t have a lot of speed and might not have the high ceiling of other players.


    With Bosa starting opposite of Liuget and both flanking Mebane, the Chargers front three are set and improved over last year. Bosa should be a huge improvement over Reyes at defensive end in all facets. He will also be kicking inside to defensive tackle during third downs where he and Liuget will rush at tackle while Attaochu and Ingram play outside. This is a player that can be moved all over the place, put in a number of situations and succeed for the Chargers. While it might not have been a player the fans considered, Telesco drafted a winner.


    2nd Round: Hunter Henry, Tight End from Arkansas


    The Chargers have four tight ends on the roster, but only one is considered a great players and none can be considered complete players. To that group Tom Telesco added the best tight end in the class, and the only real offensive weapon on a limited Razorback team.


    In a weak tight end class, Henry was undisputedly the best option. There is no box that Henry doesn’t check off. He is an outstanding blocker with a father that was an offensive lineman, so he takes that job seriously. He has fantastic hands including not dropping a single pass in 2015. He is completely fearless over the middle and has no issue taking big hits. He also is a great route runner and can run the full tree without issue. Hunter Henry is the unique tight end that will not need to come off the field because he can contribute in all facets of the game. The only real negatives are he doesn’t have great speed and while very good at everything, he’s not elite.


    In 2016, the gap between Hunter Henry and the second tight end was the size of the Grand Canyon. Unlike Cumberland or even Gates, Henry is a tight end that shouldn’t leave the field. Unlike Ladarius Green, Henry is basically a finished product that could start day one. Henry could allow Gates to wind down and become a third down/passing down tight end, something Gates has wanted to do for over a year. With two rounds down, the Chargers got the best player at two different positions. But will he be forever tied to Myles Jack in the mind of Charger fans?


    3rd Round: Max Tuerk, Center from Southern California


    As mentioned in my mock draft, the only offensive lineman not safe in their position in Chris Watt (or Trevor Robinson). Neither played well, and there was another Golden Domer available as a center in the second. However, Telesco went against his previous drafting history and selected instead a center from the Golden State.


    At 6’5 298, Max Tuerk is a lightweight but mobile and competitive center. He is tough leader who has played four different positions but is primarily a center, and the best center in the country going into the 2015 season. Tuerk is incredible in space; he can pull, trap, block on the move and hit the second level with ease. He also has impressive hand strength, leverage and patience, often letting defensive linemen show their hand before shutting them down. The negatives on Tuerk will always go to his size. He is under 300lbs and has trouble keeping weight on during the season. He also needs to keep hitting the weight room to build up his strength. This meant that Tuerk could get knocked back against bigger defensive players, which did happen from time to time. To his credit though Tuerk was often athletic and technically sound enough to readjust and handle his position. He also needs to continue to recover from his ACL tear in October.


    The only question right now is whether Tuerk will be ready by training camp or whether he needs more time. He tore his ACL in October (same month that Myles Jack was injured) but says he’s ready to go. Tuerk reminds me of Nick Hardwick without the wrestling background; you can’t teach his attitude, intelligence or his mobility, but how will he handle the huge nose tackles of teams like Denver, Kansas City and Oakland? If healthy he should start and will push Watt to the bench and Robinson to the street. This was a huge and necessary upgrade.


    4th Round: Joshua Perry, Linebacker from Ohio State


    For the first time since 2012, and the first time in the Tom Telesco era, the Chargers checked in with a 4th round selection. And for the first time in nearly 12 years, the Chargers picked not just one but two Buckeyes. The team needs depth at inside linebacker with Nick Dzubnar and CFL standout Dexter McCoil (who is currently listed at safety) backing up Te’o and Perryman. And that doesn’t include the question of what to do when Manti Te’o ends his rookie contract after 2016.


    Ohio State was loaded this year but the old school leader Joshua Perry was Urban Meyer’s favorite player. He has great physical traits checking in at 6’4 254lbs, he is a player who has all the right traits physically and mentally. On a team filled with star recruits, Perry was the unsung hero and unquestioned leader of the Buckeye defense. He has fantastic instincts, plays hard all the time, and can tackle effectively while still laying people out. Perry is also a great man cover linebacker and fantastic run stopper. On the negative is he doesn’t have amazing timed speed, he needs to learn how to shed blockers better, and tone down his aggression sometimes.


    Perry will start his Chargers career as a backup with Te’o & Perryman starting. He will be heavily rotated to keep Te’o fresh and healthy this year. However, Te’o has to be put on notice that Perry could replace him. The Chargers inside linebacker core not only has two good starters but some excellent depth.


    5th Round: Jatavis Brown, Linebacker/Safety from Akron


    More than anything else, the Chargers have continued to need playmakers on a defense that had few of them. To a team in need of help all over the place, the team selected a jack of all trades. The Chargers grabbed the MAC defensive player of the year, a man considered one of the top sleepers in the draft, and he who broke Jason Taylor’s MAC sack record.


    Brown was considered to be the “Peyton Manning” of Akron’s defense. He is an aggressive defender with impressive speed, explosive hitting ability and played sideline to sideline with ease. He showed impressive pass rush as well, though primarily used speed to win. Brown prepares with just as much intensity as he plays, spending a ton of time in the weight and tape rooms. On the negative side Brown is undersized at 5’11 227lbs (Perryman is 5’11 240lbs), is too aggressive at times and would bite on fakes far too often. And he needs to stay healthy as Brown has been nicked up a bunch.


    Jatavis Brown is an interesting player because like Joey Bosa he can be moved all over the place. He primarily played outside linebacker for the Zips, but was considered a prime candidate to be converted to safety (think Su’a Cravens). He will absolutely play special teams and could even be a rotational pass rusher. At best the Chargers would move him to strong safety and give the team a hitter with impressive instincts and speed. At worse he could be a great special teamer and a backup pass coverage linebacker. I would bet heavily that the Chargers found a starting strong safety in the same round they once found Rodney Harrison.


    6th Round: Drew Kaser, punter from Texas A&M


    Well, I can claim that I was half right in my mock draft that the Chargers would go punter in the sixth round. However, I picked the wrong sixth round selection and the wrong punter. Instead of the Aussie from Utah the Chargers grabbed Josh Lambo’s special team colleague and the man that broke all of Shane Lechler’s punting records.


    Kaser has the strongest leg in the entire punting class with an average of 46.3 yards per kick. He also is advanced in the knuckle ball punt (Charger fans will know it as the Bennett style punt) which routinely pinned opposing teams deep. Kaser hasn’t had a kick blocked in two years and has great awareness of when he can take the extra step necessary for a more forceful punt. On the negative he needs to learn to not outkick his coverage and needs to continue to improve his accuracy.


    I rank Kaser as a similar pick to the Max Tuerk pick; not only does it provide a big upgrade but it saves the team money. Assuming Kaser doesn’t bomb in training camp, he allowed the team to let Mike Scifres go and save $2.6 million. Combined with Trevor Robinson being released and that’s nearly $6 million in savings. And that ignores Kaser’s immediate value as a better and younger punter than Scifres currently. While it might’ve made a few eyebrows raise, the team once again fixed a need with the best ranked player at that position.


    6th Round: Derek Watt, fullback from Wisconsin


    The Chargers went fullback for the first time since Jacob Hester in the draft. While a position that has been declining over the last decade as more teams go single back, they can still find their place and value on a roster. To that end the Chargers went with a top 5 member of that class with a great pedigree.


    The name and school should sound familiar; he is JJ’s younger brother and Melvin Gordon’s former lead blocker. He is a good but not punishing blocker who can also catch and run the ball well. He is also a solid special teamer who plays hard without fail. On the negative is that he needs to get bigger and stronger while continuing to work on his blocking craft. He also needs to prove himself somewhere on the field in a hurry.


    The Chargers haven’t had a typical traditional fullback since 2013 with Le’Ron McClain, when Ken Whisenhunt was last OC. Watt might have the name and the intensity but he wasn’t the best fullback in the class or, arguably, available. He will have to show quickly that he deserves to be on the team and that’s likely in special teams and the occasional blocking assignment. Still it should provide some comfort to Melvin Gordon that his former lead blocker is covering him again.


    7th Round: Donovan Clark, offensive guard from Michigan State


    With their final pick in the draft the Chargers went offensive line. There aren’t many open spots at this position group, especially with Max Tuerk likely moving to the top of the center depth chart. However you can never have too many options and this is the perfect opportunity to take a flyer on a large individual from a major program.


    Clark was Michigan State’s jack of all trades and though primarily a guard, he moved to both left and right tackle positions when someone went down (doesn’t this sound familiar Charger fans?). He spent 18 games at right guard, nine at right tackle and six at left tackle, though he doesn’t have the speed or length to play outside in the NFL. He’s smart, powerful and intelligent enough to play in the NFL but has to widen his base when playing and improve his hand placement.


    7th Rounders aren’t expected to make the team but at the same time no one on the Chargers offensive line (save for Joe Barksdale) covered themselves in glory in 2015. Players especially like Kenny Wiggins, Chris Watt and Tyreek Burwell will need to compete for a spot on the roster and Clark is good enough to win a spot as a back up guard and emergency tackle.


    Undrafted Free Agents

    This year’s class, unlike the past two, don’t have a lot of names that ranked high on the ‘best remaining players’ list as the draft ended. There are some unique names that could be contributors soon. OT Tyler Johnstone is a 6’6 295lb 3 year starter for the Ducks at left tackle but is coming off a torn ACL and has an injury history. S Adrian McDonald is Houston’s all time interception leader and was a semi-finalist for best defensive back in the country. WR Dominique Williams wrote his name all over Washington State’s record books as the 6’2 200lb rookie was the primary target in the Cougars’ aerial attack. And Chris Swain was a RB/FB from Navy who rushed for over a thousand yards last year while blocking for all time FBS touchdown leader Keenan Reynolds.


    Final Gate: B+


    This might be the best draft Tom Telesco has had in his time with the Chargers. At the very least it’s the most meaningful and has the most potential for the future of the team. The Chargers end the 2016 Draft with the best player last year in college football (Bosa), the best at two positions (Henry & Kaiser), top 3 players at three other positions (Watt, Tuerk & Perry), one of the top sleepers in the draft (Brown) and a good depth player (Clark). On its surface, the Chargers clearly look to be a better team on May 1 than they did on April 27, and that’s all you can ask for.
     
    • Like Like x 1
  2. Montrose

    Montrose BoltTalker

    Joined:
    Jun 20, 2012
    Messages:
    751
    Ratings:
    +223
    Oh no not another +....:whistling:

    "...and that's all you can ask for." - heh wanna bet :rolleyes:

    In all seriousness, that is a nice summation. The draft is a bit of a mystery to those of us across the pond who don't/can't follow college football so it is great to have so much input from the folks here.
     
    • Funny Funny x 2
    • Like Like x 1
  3. LT-Express

    LT-Express Bolttalk.com Janitor since 06' Staff Member Super Moderator

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2006
    Messages:
    2,673
    Ratings:
    +434
    Nice write up Loren. :)
     
    • Like Like x 1
  4. Lance19

    Lance19 BoltTalker

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2011
    Messages:
    4,695
    Ratings:
    +2,153
    Oh, don't feel bad Montrose...half the guys here don't/can't follow college football, either...
    they just read a few "experts," watch a few 2.7 minute YouTube vids, then start typing things like:
    "I have Johnson going :rolleyes: to the Browns at 65...they've been looking for a solid 5-tech since Washington's ACL." :roflmao:

    Trust me, you can do it from across the pond, & there's little chance you could get less correct than most here. :p Try it! (Hell, I'm pretty sure a few are just using refrigerator word magnets)
     
    Last edited: May 3, 2016
    • Funny Funny x 1
    • Winner Winner x 1
  5. Montrose

    Montrose BoltTalker

    Joined:
    Jun 20, 2012
    Messages:
    751
    Ratings:
    +223
    Heh, Johnson to the Browns at 65...are you crazy!!!! He has hips and stout arms. He is too heavy and too light. His combine has a puncture and he dropped his 40. Dude you tripping.

    Wow you're right that was easy...can't wait for next year's draft.

    \:)/
     
    • Funny Funny x 2
    • Winner Winner x 1
  6. Lance19

    Lance19 BoltTalker

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2011
    Messages:
    4,695
    Ratings:
    +2,153
    Dude, that's the best laugh I've had from this board in ages! You're already 2nd best armchair GM!

    And Loren, I didn't drop in to mock your mock... :) and I think what you wrote above works fine...
    just have a years-long habit of mocking mocks in general...
     
    • Like Like x 1
  7. AnteaterCharger

    AnteaterCharger Calibrating Bolttalk, Podcast by Podcast Staff Member Super Moderator Podcaster

    Joined:
    Jan 19, 2006
    Messages:
    19,111
    Ratings:
    +2,930
    Grading a draft two days after is absurd and I don't even pretend like it isn't. Day after it happened I thought the 2012 draft class was the best in 6 years; and now one person is basically left from that group and none covered themselves in glory. This is the norm for podcasting/journalism so what the hell, put your opinion out there.

    And as I'm sure you know I'm so completely fallible I rotate back around to infallible :)
     
    • Like Like x 2
    • Winner Winner x 1
  8. Lance19

    Lance19 BoltTalker

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2011
    Messages:
    4,695
    Ratings:
    +2,153
    Oh, it's all fun...I just get a kick out of the guys who take this one opportunity a year
    to sound like they understand the game better than the other 11 months suggest! :roflmao:

    It's a crapshoot: Even the pros that know 100x what most posters do, guys that fly around
    the country to see prospects in person, and sit down and talk with them...those guys make tons of mistakes
    http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.co...ons-show-everyones-guessing-in-the-nfl-draft/
    but we're to believe that Bernie from Santee really knows better... :p

    The story linked above just ran in PFT, and it's a pretty good look at the topic.

    Fortunately for most scouts and GMs, the results won't be sorted for years...
    so right now, fans all over the country are touting the "excellent" draft their team just had.
    many are flat out wrong...we just don't which ones, yet.


    P.S. The biggest blowhards are always easy to spot...they're the most thin-skinned...trying to maintain the ruse...
     
    Last edited: May 4, 2016
    • Like Like x 1
    • Winner Winner x 1
    • Old Old x 1
  9. matilack

    matilack Take A Knee McCree!!!

    Joined:
    Aug 14, 2006
    Messages:
    17,105
    Ratings:
    +3,555
    Ant what you're seeing now is the very limit of Lance's football acumen, which is pretty much just making fun of people who care.

    If you can comb through his posts from the last 12 months and find a single relevant well thought out strictly football related opinion, without unwarranted sarcastic jabs at other posters, I will donate $100 to the "Bolt Talk podcast relief fund":D tonight.
     
    • Funny Funny x 1
  10. Chaincrusher

    Chaincrusher BoltTalker

    Joined:
    Apr 8, 2015
    Messages:
    2,322
    Ratings:
    +302
    Loren, I agree with many of the things you wrote, but one area where I could not disagree more is regarding your take on Hunter Henry and the Arkansas Razorbacks.

    Arkansas had a number of good offensive players and a good college offensive line. Collins was effective at RB in Williams' absence. He averaged 5.8 yards per carry, ran for 1,577 yards and scored 20 TDs.

    Their WRs, while not necessarily of NFL quality were solid college players. In fact, Drew Morgan led the team in receptions (63), receiving yards (843), and receiving TDs (10), not Henry (51-739-3). The fact Henry was not the primary red zone option and couldn't get it done in the red zone is a red flag.

    Their OL was the biggest in the nation, including all NFL teams. That's where the run blocking came from. Some of their good college OL players may not translate to the NFL due to lack of speed/athleticism, but they were a huge mauling group that pounded smaller opponents at the college level.

    In all fairness to the Razorback offense, I would say that a RB that averages 5.8 yards per carry, runs for 1,577 yards and has 20 TDs is a pretty gosh darn good offensive weapon. I would say that a receiver that puts up 63 receptions and 10 TDs (to Henry's 3) is also a pretty gosh darn good offensive weapon. In fact, Henry was not even the best receiver on his own team.

    So, I am sorry, but your take on the Arkansas offense and Henry that Henry "was the only real offensive weapon" is laughable.

    Henry is a solid run blocker, but he is not a standout blocker. Henry is solid as a receiver, but not a standout receiver.

    I do not believe there is a huge gap at all in this weak TE class between Henry and others like Jerell Adams or Nick Vannett. I would give Henry the slight edge, but only a slight edge.

    I think most fans of their teams see things through rose colored glasses. I try to do my best to be objective and I understand that that attempt at objectivity is often taken for negativity and is often not liked by the forum.

    That said, and as for the whole draft class, here's a dose of reality. Before the draft, we were 50-1 to win the Super Bowl. After the draft, our odds dropped to 80-1, third worst in the whole NFL. I think that shows what the perception of our draft is outside of Chargerland.
     
  11. HollywoodLeo

    HollywoodLeo Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 13, 2006
    Messages:
    15,203
    Ratings:
    +2,415
    He's probably come to the realization that we don't all know as much as we pretend to know about everything we argue about and wonders what the point would be in making a well thought out strictly football related opinion.
     
  12. HollywoodLeo

    HollywoodLeo Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 13, 2006
    Messages:
    15,203
    Ratings:
    +2,415
    I'm sure they didn't factor in other teams' drafts when they made those odds.
     
  13. matilack

    matilack Take A Knee McCree!!!

    Joined:
    Aug 14, 2006
    Messages:
    17,105
    Ratings:
    +3,555
    Yes, and I'm sure it requires an exceptionally enlightened mind to realize that mock drafts are meaningless, and one who's so self satisfied in this realization that he feels the need to drive the point home every single year.

    Congrats to Lance for having such an evolved opinion on the subject of other people's opinions, and for condescending to our level long enough to cleverly insult people for those opinions; and do pretty much nothing else. Ever.
     
  14. Blue Bolt

    Blue Bolt Persona Non Grata

    Joined:
    Oct 28, 2009
    Messages:
    22,295
    Ratings:
    +4,405
    I'm sensing a budding bromance. ;)
     
  15. Lance19

    Lance19 BoltTalker

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2011
    Messages:
    4,695
    Ratings:
    +2,153
    I don't pretend to know, but weren't those 50-1 odds made when Weddle was still on the Chargers' roster?

    Since odds are based mostly on betters' impressions, wouldn't one expect to see the public downgrade
    the Chargers' chances when their most well known "star" defender of the last 5 years leaves?
     
  16. HollywoodLeo

    HollywoodLeo Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 13, 2006
    Messages:
    15,203
    Ratings:
    +2,415
    Would it matter?

    Those betters' impressions are their opinions of whether or not the Chargers can win and, as we all know, opinions are irrevocable facts.
     
    • Winner Winner x 1
  17. Blue Bolt

    Blue Bolt Persona Non Grata

    Joined:
    Oct 28, 2009
    Messages:
    22,295
    Ratings:
    +4,405
    fify ;)
     
    • Like Like x 1
  18. Lance19

    Lance19 BoltTalker

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2011
    Messages:
    4,695
    Ratings:
    +2,153
    I don't think that's dispositive, lads.

    Anyway, I fear the point of Loren's perfectly nice thread is getting lost in these trivialities,
    so I'll cease and desist right now.

    Well, one final word: My enthusiasm re. this Telesco draft is a bit more tempered than many here.
    On paper, yes, it looks pretty good...but I've been fooled sooooooooo many times before:
    Hell, I remember watching Mikhael Ricks spectacularly one-hand passes at camp at UCSD in 1998,
    and thinking: "Bobby Beathard is a genius!!" :whistling:
    I know that much of the league thinks that the Chargers are one of the 2 or 4 worst clubs in '16.
    I don't think they're that bad...in fact, I thought they were a .500 quality club, last year, before the extraordinary rash of injuries...and similar overall roster quality this year. Unfortunately it's not 2009 anymore in the AFC West...
     
  19. Blitzy

    Blitzy Spanos Chargers Troll

    Joined:
    May 7, 2011
    Messages:
    8,203
    Ratings:
    +1,026
    I'm sooo glad that you still have got that spidy sense ;)
     
  20. matilack

    matilack Take A Knee McCree!!!

    Joined:
    Aug 14, 2006
    Messages:
    17,105
    Ratings:
    +3,555
    You should make that your tag line.

    I'll never forget the one from charger1993....."If he can help us win, I can look past the incest."
     
  21. Chaincrusher

    Chaincrusher BoltTalker

    Joined:
    Apr 8, 2015
    Messages:
    2,322
    Ratings:
    +302
    I am sure they did factor in other teams' drafts. That's the point. The perception is that the other teams drafted better than we did as our odds to win the Super Bowl dropped.

    We are the #3 long shot in the entire NFL to win the Super Bowl according to Eric Williams.

    That doesn't necessarily mean that we are viewed as the third worst team (our path to the Super Bowl could be viewed as more difficult than another team's path that might be viewed as worse than us), but it does indicate that the public at large does not think we are going to be very good this year.
     
  22. Chaincrusher

    Chaincrusher BoltTalker

    Joined:
    Apr 8, 2015
    Messages:
    2,322
    Ratings:
    +302
    Oddsmakers knew Weddle was not coming back. Telesco publicly proclaimed it at his end of the season press conference. So that should have been already factored into the opening odds.

    We had a nice group of free agent signings.

    And yet, after the draft, our odds dropped from 50-1 to 80-1.

    I would say that the public perception of our draft was that it was not very good.
     
  23. Chaincrusher

    Chaincrusher BoltTalker

    Joined:
    Apr 8, 2015
    Messages:
    2,322
    Ratings:
    +302
    Well, you can ignore the point all you want, but that won't make it go away.

    I am trying to show that there is a disconnect between the perception on this board and the perception outside of Chargerland--a big one.

    For example, I was talking to a Cowboys fan recently and his opinion of our taking Bosa was an outright snicker. Now, I don't think Bosa is full on snicker worthy the way Darius Hands of Clay was for the Raiders years ago, but the point is that the public at large does not think we drafted all that well.
     
  24. Lance19

    Lance19 BoltTalker

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2011
    Messages:
    4,695
    Ratings:
    +2,153
    Well, yes, I get that that's your point...if interpreted that way, it would appear to support your narrative.
    But I think that the more obvious truth
    --that an objective person would be more likely to embrace, if they hadn't doubled down, tripled down, on
    declaring a Telesco draft a loss--would be that Weddle is the bigger factor. For your assertion to be true,
    there would need to be overwhelming agreement around the league that the Chargers had a horrible draft.

    https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2016/04/30/draft-2016-nfl-draft-grades-for-all-32-teams/
    http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2016/5/...-west-chargers-raiders-joey-bosa-paxton-lynch
    http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/writer...-grades-32-grades-for-32-teams-but-only-one-a
    http://www.sportingnews.com/nfl/lis...ound-picks-/1e3u2w27u5dsgz97bviax6yvk/slide/6

    Five minutes with Google (and these are not cherry picked...just the first 4 I found...though I'm sure that if one dishonestly wanted to
    round up the lowest Charger grades, and pretend they were representative---don't do it, CC!--they could)
    quickly demonstrates that, no,
    there's certainly no consensus that the Chargers had a poor draft, never mind a disastrous one,
    that would explain such a dramatic change in odds. Sorry CC, but your claim is already dead, here.


    But history tells us that we don't actually know, until we know. Again, your framing it that way supports your
    dogged narrative...so I get why you're doing it. But that doesn't make it true. Recently a lot of people said Bradford would never play another down in an Eagles uni. But we don't actually know do we? Surely, when that eventually is decided, some dumb and/or dishonest people will claim that "everybody knew that Bradford was going to _______,"
    but honest people with good memories will know that to be untrue.

    Look, CC, I know you're one to defend your opinions (as facts) :whistling: long beyond when anyone's buying it...
    but let this one go...the claim that the Chargers had a draft was hated so much that it dramatically
    changed their Super Bowl odds, fits your narrative, but not the actual "draft grades."
     
  25. Concudan

    Concudan Caffeinated Commando

    Joined:
    Mar 5, 2006
    Messages:
    53,044
    Ratings:
    +4,979
    Careful, Lancie Boo will put you on super secret ignore if you dont like his posts... ;)
     
    • Funny Funny x 1
  26. Chaincrusher

    Chaincrusher BoltTalker

    Joined:
    Apr 8, 2015
    Messages:
    2,322
    Ratings:
    +302
    If your argument weren't so crappy, I wouldn't take issue with it.

    Oddsmakers use information to set the odds. When the odds were initially set at 50-1, they knew that Weddle was not coming back. Frankly, they knew before Telesco outright declared it to be the case, but just in case there was any doubt at all (in case any of the oddsmakers sported an IQ below 60), Telesco made it 100% crystal clear that Weddle would not be back in his state of the team address.

    In short, your Weddle assertion is a complete and total red herring in this context. With the knowledge that Weddle would not be returning, the odds were set at 50-1. That's a nice try at rewriting history, but the odds were not set on the basis that Weddle would be returning when the team, through Telesco, expressly stated that he would not be back.

    The oddsmakers concluded that the Chargers had a bad draft relative to the other NFL teams and dropped their odds from 50-1 to 80-1. That's what happened, so let's not pretend like something else happened. There were no other intervening events.

    And please note that we are talking about the oddmakers' view of overall public perception, not what some isolated columnists here or there may have opined, no matter how many. Your citing of draft analyses of various media persons is irrelevant to that consideration.

    The oddsmakers' view of the public perception of the team after the draft is reflected by the odds it assigns, which are designed to get bets evenly spread. Here, they changed the odds from 50-1 to 80-1 because they believe that the public has/will conclude that the Chargers had a poor draft relative to other teams.

    Moreover, I didn't declare the draft a loss. So your entire premise regarding the basis for my post fails. I stated that the first two picks were not good, the third was mediocre (C range) and the day three picks were very good as a whole, with Watt being the only questionable pick.

    I simply pointed out that there is a disconnect between the apparent public perception of our draft (as reflected by the odds assigned by oddsmakers) and what many here have concluded looking through their rose colored glasses. Where you decided to run with my post represents an agenda on your part, not mine.
     
    Last edited: May 5, 2016
  27. HollywoodLeo

    HollywoodLeo Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 13, 2006
    Messages:
    15,203
    Ratings:
    +2,415
    Did you know it's possible for the other teams in our division to have a better draft than us and ours still not be a bad one?

    Did you know that it's possible for us to have a better draft than another team but they're more fit to win this year and their draft probably helped that more than ours did as well?

    Did you know betting odds are determined by how betters bet and not some extensive insight to how good a team actually is or is not, meaning these changes are based on the opinions of other armchair "experts" such as yourself and not actual experts in the field?

    Did you know that if you look at the overall picture without an agenda you can figure stuff like this on your own?
     
    • Funny Funny x 1
    • Winner Winner x 1
  28. HollywoodLeo

    HollywoodLeo Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 13, 2006
    Messages:
    15,203
    Ratings:
    +2,415
    Because some random Cowboys fan is the expert on these matters?

    Was he praising his own 4-12 team taking a luxury pick at 4 overall?
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
    • Funny Funny x 1
    • Winner Winner x 1
  29. Blue Bolt

    Blue Bolt Persona Non Grata

    Joined:
    Oct 28, 2009
    Messages:
    22,295
    Ratings:
    +4,405
    Did you know 9 out of 10 Crusher's can't reliably spot a rhetorical question?
     
    • Funny Funny x 5
  30. Concudan

    Concudan Caffeinated Commando

    Joined:
    Mar 5, 2006
    Messages:
    53,044
    Ratings:
    +4,979
    Really? I did not know that... Knowing is half the battle!
     
    • Like Like x 2

Share This Page