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Markets

Discussion in 'The Lounge' started by goboilers, Jul 14, 2006.

  1. goboilers

    goboilers BoltTalker

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    I like Cramer. But, he must think he is GOD. NOBODY can be better than 50-50 on short term calls let alone on short term calls on all the stocks in the mkt. His broad based calls are very impressive. that part he is good with.

    J, nice bounce on SIRI :icon_banana:

    I dont care about the depreciation and maintenance on the boats, houses and swimming pools - I just want to be able to afford it. There is this place on Shelter Island, freaking every car was my dream car. Porsche's were like Camrys out there.

    I dont know how Batapaglia gets a job. He is a joke along with Kudlow and Acampora.

    All these analysts base their analysis on the broad market fundamentals with their Time Series starting in 1993. The fcukers. Pick the best period in the stock mkt's history and then everything looks "historically" cheap. Nobody talks about how Profit Margins are at 50 yr highs, we r about to slow down and P.Es are at their higher end of the true history of the mkt.
     
  2. goboilers

    goboilers BoltTalker

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    L, I hope u r buying the 2 yr TSY.

    Good morning everyone. A couple of housecleaning issues: First, on that GDP
    number we got on Friday, the one thing you want to go back to your clients with
    today is that when you add up the interest-sensitive sectors of the economy
    (consumer spending on durables + capex + housing), they collectively shrunk at
    2% annual rate in the second quarter. Outside of Katrina, this was the first
    contraction since the fourth quarter of 2002, when everyone thought the US
    economy was still in recession.
    The 2.5% headline GDP number was flattering
    So the 2.5% headline GDP number was in some sense flattering, even if it did
    surprise the consensus to the downside because 1/3rd of that top-line growth rate
    was in net exports and inventories. And between the fact that we have almost no
    momentum being built into the current quarter on the domestic consumer and
    business spending fronts, and the fact that part of that inventory buildup,
    especially in the auto sector, is more than likely going to get worked off through
    the rest of the summer, we are calling for 2.3% GDP growth for the third quarter,
    which is actually fractionally softer than the 2.5% headline we saw in the second
    quarter. This would then represent the weakest back-to-back quarterly
    performance in four years and in our opinion, keep the equity market range-bound
    at best and defensively oriented.
    The Fed is increasingly being taken out of the picture
    If there is one bright light, it is that the Fed is increasingly being taken out of the
    picture. The eurodollar futures strip is now at 30% odds in terms of forecasting
    Fed rate hike on 8 August. And we now have this added unusual development
    the money market where the 2-year note yield is now trading below the 6-month
    T-bill, which last happened in January 2001 when the Fed embarked on its threeyear
    easing campaign. The Dow Transports/Utilities index is also behaving very
    much like it did in the summer of 2000, the fall of 1998 and the winter of 1995
    when the Fed switched away from a tightening bias. And we see from Market
    News that of the 22 Wall Street economists polled, we are down to 12 in terms
    the number that now see the Fed raising rates for an 18th time on 8 August.
     
  3. goboilers

    goboilers BoltTalker

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    Why should we run our economy of the cliff bec. the chinese are trying run theirs of the cliff?

    I buy the commodities story but not right now. In late 07 - early 2008, we r going to have the mother of all deflation scares. The Atlas of the global economy, the "US consumer" is about to shrug. No one is prepared for a deflationary scare right now. They will be pisssssing in their pants. The Fed should wait and watch. The Chinese need to stop emulating the economic version of sucide bombing - they have lost the plot.

    Inflation cant take off without wage inflation picking up. The inflation we see rt. now is a product of Asset prices increasing. There is a synthetic cap on interest rates.

    I will put up my report from home one of these days.the housing mkt was a pump and dump game and people just kept on playing like a bunch of idiots. The last macro report I wrote was last year and I warned about the housing mkt (been on that wagon since 04) and the chinese. The Asians fcuked up. They should have let their currencies appreciate significantly in 04. They wanted to eat their cake and have it too and now we will all pay.

    I wonder if the US goes south who is going to pick up the burden. All the capacity that China has built - who the fcuk r they planning to sell the stuff to? Wait for 6 mths and the housing mkt wont respond to rates bec. the supply will just kill the mkt.

    The only reason I think about inflation is bec. of Andy Xie and Marc Faber (2 of my favorites and hence I cant ignore them).

    82% of peops think the dollar is going down. Cant remember the last time 82% of the participants were right in the FX mkt. The Markets always does the unexpected.
     
  4. goboilers

    goboilers BoltTalker

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    100 bucks for what bet? :icon_mrgreen: - I love betting.

    J, I love Gold. Not bec. of the dollar but there isnt a currency on the planet worth the paper its printed on right now. BUT, gold is not a good hedge against deflation. I know what u r talking about - I was in the dollar doom scenario camp since November 2000 ( was in freaking college). I interviewed with Bridgewater (look them up) and the guy out there was like I have never met someone as young as you who knew his FX as well. I studied Engg. not even business.

    Just one question, who is going to pick up the economic burden? China? Europe? Japan? WHO?

    P.S. that was written by David Rosenberg from ML (the best US economist in the past few years).
     
  5. goboilers

    goboilers BoltTalker

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    why? your junk will obliterate.
     
  6. goboilers

    goboilers BoltTalker

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    Its not greedy chinamen - they have lost control. Its like a Ferrari with its driver relying on the road continuing to be straight and with no clue where the fcukin cliff is.
     
  7. goboilers

    goboilers BoltTalker

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    The worst part is that I think that idiot will go 25 bps and the bond mkt will rally. 3 mth will get crushed and overnight will get crushed but the bond mkt will rally. The Fed has overshot already. There is no advantage with raising rates. there is 0 stimulus from short term rates in the US economy.

    CHINA NEEDS TO SLOW DOWN.
     
  8. goboilers

    goboilers BoltTalker

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    I agree. I think Ben is out to prove a pt. But, the bond mkt will rally and rally hard. maybe not that day but in the next mth if he raises rate. The 2 year bond from a risk/reward perspective is a killer bet.
     
  9. WonderSlug

    WonderSlug New Member

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  10. goboilers

    goboilers BoltTalker

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    sluggo, tell us why this imp. from a techy pt. of view? give us some expert analysis.
     
  11. WonderSlug

    WonderSlug New Member

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    Well SanDisk is quickly becoming the monopoly in flash memory by buying it's competitors and their market share.

    That means all those memory cards you use in your digital cameras, cell phones, radios; and all those USB memory keychain devices. Even all the electronic appliances that use flash memory to retain the device settings (like TVs, VCRs, DVD players, DD/DTS A/V, etc.) will soon be using flash memory from SanDisk and only SanDisk.

    As people buy more and/or replace digital cameras and cell phones every year or two, SanDisk will continue to supply the flash memory they store their data on.
     

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