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Maybe there is hope, Lancer

Discussion in 'Chargers Fan Forum' started by LaDeezie21, Sep 10, 2012.

  1. LaDeezie21

    LaDeezie21 BoltTalker

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    I've given Nate a hard time, but it looks like he's come back strong. I'm liking the long kick offs and accuracy.

    If he can keep it up all season long (including the playoffs) I could see myself changing my tune.

    Here is to me being wrong. ;)
     
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    • Optimistic Optimistic x 1
  2. Whooki Mane

    Whooki Mane BoltTalker

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    This is nothing new with Nate he does this in the regular season no problem... the knock on him is the playoffs
     
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  3. ThunderHorse17

    ThunderHorse17 Lone Wolf

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    Aside from his moniker as *most accurate reg season kicker ever* I think it is too soon to start sailing that ship. Granted he did end up scoring more points than either our offense or Oakands.
     
  4. robdog

    robdog Code Monkey Staff Member Administrator

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    I love to hate this guy... (Nate)

    Love him now, and then when playoff start... I will let you know.
     
    • Funny Funny x 1
  5. CoronaDoug

    CoronaDoug Well-Known Member

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    Seriously? How easy you forget.....

    1) These were kicks that any professional kicker should have made. 23, 28, 19, 41, 45.

    2) Someone may come on here and write a book about it but... none of these were clutch.

    3) Just in case you forgot.... Playoff FG's 53.3%

    4) In case you need a visual......
    [​IMG]


    On the bright side, we will not get a chance to see him kick in the playoffs if they do not start scoring TD's.
     
    • Old Old x 1
  6. Concudan

    Concudan Caffeinated Commando

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    You are starting to sound like a Raiders fan... "A long time ago 'this' happened..."

    If we make the Playoffs this year, Kaeding will have had several years to settle down and mature. I know you are stuck in yesterday, but the rest of the world is. it is pathetic how you hope he will fail so you can crow about it.
     
  7. CoronaDoug

    CoronaDoug Well-Known Member

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    Not at all. Just stating the facts. Have you ever seen it written that I hope he would fail? Of course not.
     
  8. Concudan

    Concudan Caffeinated Commando

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    The tone of your continuous poison pen posts about Nate indicate that you relish the fact he MIGHT fail. You can of course your choice... Just seems pathetic to me. If I am wrong, so be it... But if it walks like a duck, barks like a duck and has feathers.....
     
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  9. Ikeman83

    Ikeman83 Werter Pöbel

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    He's pointing out the logical fallacy of saying that Nate has solved his problems in the playoffs by kicking regular season field goals. It's the equivalent of saying that the United States has solved its problems with finding lasting peace following military conflicts because we blew up the Iraqi Army in 1991.
     
  10. CoronaDoug

    CoronaDoug Well-Known Member

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    It is in 90+% of peoples heads that he could fail at anytime (especially in the playoffs). I am only adding to the posts or disagreeing with those who have already nominated him for comeback player of the year.

    If you think I relish a failure then you have this confused with the anti-Norv threads that you love so much. ;)

    Maybe it was that year off without Kaeding that made you forget about my pathetic posts? I would suggest "ducking" them in the future. :whistling:

    Not to be optimistically challenged but... Matthews will be back soon (for at least one play). That will take a little heat off of the Kaeding posts.:D

    [​IMG]
     
  11. Lance19

    Lance19 BoltTalker

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    That is extremely big of you!
    All you ask is that a man have the highest field goal percentage in NFL history,
    and come back from a season-eating injury with long kicks and accuracy for an
    entire season, plus playoff success. And if he delivers all that, it's possible that you might
    consider beginning to say nice things about him. Mother Teresa aspired to be a LaDeezie.
     
    • Agree Agree x 2
  12. Concudan

    Concudan Caffeinated Commando

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    The only fallacy of logic is to think that because what happened before will happen again. I point to the various team that have won the Super Bowl, as evidence of this. If past playoff performances dictated the future there would only be one team that ever won the Super Bowl. Please up your 'logic'...
     
  13. CoronaDoug

    CoronaDoug Well-Known Member

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    First of all you are comparing team performances to individual performances. You are also denying that trends do exist. It is not like he missed one FG the playoffs and we are basing it only on this one kick. If you think that there is not an issue that the "most accurate NFL kicker" has a 53.3 playoff percentage, then I apologize.
     
  14. CoronaDoug

    CoronaDoug Well-Known Member

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    And just for the record....

    [​IMG]
     
  15. Lance19

    Lance19 BoltTalker

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    Well, you started okay. :)

    Yes, as far as it goes, implying that stellar regular season play somehow disproves the idea that Nate
    has struggled in the post season does commit the Ignoratio elenchi (irrelevant conclusion) fallacy.

    However, the obsession with Nate's playoff results commits the very same fallacy. The question is not
    "Has Nate been successful in the post season?" it's "Is Nate the best kicking solution for the Chargers?"
    A much more complex question, since his spectacular regular season results contribute directly to
    the team's chances of reaching the playoffs. In fact, the last two seasons, the question of Nate's playoff
    abilities has been 100% irrelevant. Though Nate's post season performance is not the total disaster
    some have tried to portray it as (he has made most of his kicks, after all), the gap between his excellent
    regular season results and his disappointing playoff results is a legitimate concern to any Charger fan.
    From my perspective, Nate's dubious playoff results are less important than the steady, excellent
    performance that gets a team into the playoffs. To take the most accurate kicker of all time off the
    field, employing wishful thinking that his replacement might do better in the playoffs--if the team should make the
    playoffs (with, by definition, a less accurate kicker)--is very questionable reasoning...the new kicker would have to be
    stunning, in order to make that move. So, who is the stunning (and unemployed / available) kicker that the Chargers should replace Nate with?

    I read the "lasting peace...military conflicts...Iraqi Army" thing 4 or 5 times...and simply can
    not decipher what you're trying to say. It's bizarre...but, as far as I can tell, not truly analogous
    to the Ignoratio elenchi above. (Maybe re-write it, clarify your point, so it can be compared?)
     
  16. Ikeman83

    Ikeman83 Werter Pöbel

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    Ludicrous assertion. First, if something happens a single time, then there is no reason to expect a repeat performance. However, when the same event occurs over and over and over again, that constitutes a pattern. That's how I know, without having to witness it happen, that everytime a rock flies into a black hole, it gets spaghettified by gravity before disappearing into the event horizon never to be seen again, instead of magically turning into a butterfly and fluttering out of the gravitational pull of the singularity to populate the universe with happiness. The idea of that happening, however, is no more ludicrous than a comparison of the millions of interactions among thousands of people which have to happen in order to determine who goes to the playoffs annually and then who ultimately wins them, to the 22 interactions among players on the field, the 5 interactions on the ball, 3 of which are so routine that when any of them goes awry it's not only hilarious but highlight worthy, and the 2 steps and kick of the kicker that goes into a kicker converting a field goal.
     
  17. Lance19

    Lance19 BoltTalker

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    Yep...the sun "rises" every day in the east. Surely it will always be so. :)
     
  18. LaDeezie21

    LaDeezie21 BoltTalker

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    Give me a fuggin break. Adrian Peterson came back from a shredded knee in time for the season opener and didn't miss a beat. Asking a kicker to do his job after a knee injury shouldn't be too much to ask.

    Get off his sack. He hasn't proven anything yet.
     
  19. Buck Melanoma

    Buck Melanoma Guest

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    Not exactly. He's proven he can kick 5 more FG's in a game than you. :tup:
     
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  20. LaDeezie21

    LaDeezie21 BoltTalker

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    Dude, you're trying way too hard. Tone it down. No one's impressed.
     
  21. LaDeezie21

    LaDeezie21 BoltTalker

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    Oh wow, never heard that one before.
     
  22. Lance19

    Lance19 BoltTalker

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    The man wants to speak the language of logical fallacies...and I'm happy to go there.
    This involves you, how?


    (p.s.: You'll know when I'm trying to impress you: I'll be shaking my keys or employing some other shiny object)
     
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  23. Buck Melanoma

    Buck Melanoma Guest

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    You're welcome.
     
  24. Lancer 1

    Lancer 1 Eternal Optimist

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    If Peyton Manning plays the entire season, he’ll be named the NFL Comeback Player of the Year, of that I’m certain and it won’t matter what Kaeding, AP or any other NFL player does.
     
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  25. Ikeman83

    Ikeman83 Werter Pöbel

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    I am now typing this for the second time, and am therefore rather angry. I apologize for the long delay in replying. Damn you keyboard!

    I disagree with your framing of the question, and by extension with your assertion that arguments regarding Kaeding's postseason performance are guilty of being irrelevant conclusions. First, the question is not whether or not Kaeding has been successful in the postseason, as field goal kicking is not an area of expertise where an approximately 50% completion rate constitutes success. Rather, the question is whether or not Nate would be successful in the postseason, were he given another opportunity to be, and taking that into account, whether or not he is the best kicking solution for the Chargers. You state that Nate's dubious playoff results are less important to you than his steady regular-season performances in order to reach the post-season, and yet this perspective suffers from two major faults. First, equality of opportunity; although each regular season game is important in the context of a team's overall efforts to reach the postseason, no single regular season loss determines whether or not a team will or will not be eliminated from competition for a championship, while any post-season loss immediately has this consequence. Second, equality of competition; The typical opponent winning percentage faced in the regular season hovers, by necesity, near 50%. While in the playoffs, opponent winning percentages are typically much higher. Although the correlation between games won and team quality is not linear, there is a correlation between the quality of a team and the number of wins they've registered, and the quality of the competition in the playoffs is, by this metric as well as the old-fashioned eyeball test, higher than that of the complete field of opponents faced in the regular season. With a higher caliber of opponent, the margin of error is reduced, and the frequency of opportunities to score, and of opportunities to overcome missed opportunities to score, is lower than in the regular season as a result. This places a premium on playoff performance, specifically on single opportunities to win or tie the game, which, stemming from the single-elimination nature of postseason play, are infinitely more important than similar opportunities in the regular season. While Nate has so far lacked the ability to definitively answer the question of whether he would be successful in the postseason since his last opportunity, this doesn't make the question of whether or not he would have been capable of doing so irrelevant, but rather merely academic. As the capabilities and limitations of the players on the roster are certainly never irrelevant when making roster decisions.

    Now, you next asserted that any replacement kicker would have to be stunning, and I wholeheartedly disagree. Nate's regular season record is 178/205, or almost 87%. Staggering. How different would our record be, however, if he kicked 75% (hardly staggering for NFL standards for a kicker, resulting in an increase of 3.5 missed kicks per season played) in the regular season, while also kicking 75% in postseason play, instead of his more pedestrian 53%? There's obviously no way of knowing, but it's not difficult to recall the myriad blowout games we've had in each of these seasons where a missed kick in the regular season would've had no impact on our ability to make the playoffs, or how completing 50% more kicks in the playoff games might've changed our fortunes. The Chargers don't need a stunning kicker to be more successful than they have been with Nate, merely a consistently good one. As far as where to find this mystical kicking machine? I have no idea, but the draft would seem like a good place to look. I would prefer it if Kaeding would simply slay his demons with regards to clutch kicking so that we could have the most accurate regular season kicker of all time and a clutch postseason kicker.

    The analogy was attempting to show the fallacy of reaching a conclusion regarding situation A (Difficulties finding long-term solutions to political stability and nation-building in a post-war environment in the nuclear age) based on observations from situation B (Military success following a limited engagement after the conclusion of which no attempts at finding long-term solutions to political stability and nation-building in a post-war environment in the nuclear age were made). You'll have to excuse my hastiness in not fully illustrating the comparison.
     
  26. Concudan

    Concudan Caffeinated Commando

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    He has also made them in playoffs. Yet you ignore that. He may miss again in playoffs he may not. You act like it is a forgone conclusion and it is not.
     
  27. Concudan

    Concudan Caffeinated Commando

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    Wow! An astophysasist who know what really happens in a blak hole. We are in the presence of true genus! Did you mention anything else worth reading... nope. keep an eye on your crystal ball, I am sure it gives you a lot of comfort.
     
  28. Blue Bolt

    Blue Bolt Persona Non Grata

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    I wonder what Nick Novak is doing these days? ;)
     
  29. Buck Melanoma

    Buck Melanoma Guest

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    Waiting to get signed after Week 1.
     
  30. Ikeman83

    Ikeman83 Werter Pöbel

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    Actually, what I described happens outside the black hole as an item approaches the event horizon, and you don't have to be an astrophysicist to know that, nor am I. I never said I had a crystal ball, or anything of the kind. I said that it was reasonable to assume that something acting in a pattern will continue to do so until it provides evidence to the contrary, once a pattern has been established. This is why I expected a post from you like the one linked above instead of an argument to the contrary, or an agreement.
     

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