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McCoy's Mistakes

Discussion in 'Chargers Fan Forum' started by Burlington Bolt Brother, Dec 2, 2013.

  1. HEXEDBOLT

    HEXEDBOLT Don't like it, lump it!!!

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    Exactly, that's why they play the percentages, go with the safer bet that early in the game.
     
  2. Burlington Bolt Brother

    Burlington Bolt Brother BoltTalker

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    I cant believe there is guy debating me who has me on ignore
     
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  3. Burlington Bolt Brother

    Burlington Bolt Brother BoltTalker

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    I dont know what the situation book says to do but both these cases., the ball was well in the opponent's territory.
     
  4. Blue Bolt

    Blue Bolt Persona Non Grata

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    "You have to be poised under pressure," McCoy said. "It's something that whether you get baited or not, it's unacceptable. That's what I told him instantly after the play happened. I'm sure you all saw that. After the game, talking to the team, it's something we can't accept. You don't want any unsportsmanlike conducts. ... That's kind of certain players' jobs to bait you into certain penalties. You have to stay away from it. It really hurt our football team."

    At least, McCoy is holding the players accountable for their "unacceptable" mistakes.......... if not his own. ;)
     
  5. Burlington Bolt Brother

    Burlington Bolt Brother BoltTalker

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    Did he really say, "I'm sure you all saw that"? You made that up, right?
     
  6. Burlington Bolt Brother

    Burlington Bolt Brother BoltTalker

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  7. Blue Bolt

    Blue Bolt Persona Non Grata

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    Nope....... quoted verbatim.
     
  8. Burlington Bolt Brother

    Burlington Bolt Brother BoltTalker

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    Then I'd like to close this thread and start a new one
     
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  9. ETicket

    ETicket Well-Known Member

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    How do you like me now?

    Screen Shot 2014-01-06 at 4.17.06 PM.png
     
  10. Burlington Bolt Brother

    Burlington Bolt Brother BoltTalker

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    Review: San Diego Chargers on 4th down against the Cincinnati Bengals
    [​IMG][​IMG]

    By Jason Peters @bledderag on Jan 6 2014, 10:00a 31
    Why score points when they have Andy Dalton? – Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

    The Chargers pulled out an impressive victory against the Bengals on Sunday thanks to great pregame preparation. Did Mike McCoy do well with his in-game management?
    Tweet (6) Share (3) Share 31 Comments Rec 1

    The playoffs are when a head coach needs to be at his absolute sharpest (right Andy Reid?). How did Mike McCoy do with his 4th down decisions against the Bengals? Let's find out with help from the New York Times 4th Down Bot and the Advanced NFL Stats 4th Down Calculator.
    Chargers 0, Bengals 0 – 11:57 left in 1st quarter – 4th and 11 from the SD 30

    NYT 4th Down Bot Says: Punt the ball

    Mike McCoy's Decision: Punt the ball

    No question here, punting was absolutely the right decision here.
    Chargers 7, Bengals 0 – 12:15 left in 2nd quarter – 4th and 2 from SD 13

    NYT 4th Down Bot Says: Too close to call

    Mike McCoy's Decision: Punt the ball

    The numbers ever so slightly favor going for it, but a punt isn't bad at all here. The consequences of going for it and failing are catastrophic.
    Chargers 7, Bengals 7 – 3:51 left in 2nd quarter – 4th and 1 from SD 34

    NYT 4th Down Bot Says: Go for it

    Mike McCoy's Decision: Punt the ball

    The stats say to go for it here if there is a 54% chance or better of making it, which is definitely the case here. The offensive line has been pushing the defense around in the run game all day, this should have been an automatic go for it.

    On average, going for the first down here will succeed 74% of the time. With the way the Chargers were playing at this time, it is easy to assumed their chances are even higher than that. Instead, Mike McCoy opts to go with the cowardly decision to punt the ball away.
    Chargers 7, Bengals 7 – 1:27 left in 2nd quarter – 4th and 9 from SD 13

    NYT 4th Down Bot Says: Punt the ball

    Mike McCoy's Decision: Punt the ball

    The decision to punt the ball is correct on 4th and 9 here. The decision to not attempt for anything better than 4th and 9 on the three previous plays is quite possibly one of the dumbest things Mike McCoy has done all season.
    Chargers 14, Bengals 10 – 2:04 left in 3rd quarter – 4th and 3 from CIN 6

    NYT 4th Down Bot Says: Go for it

    Mike McCoy's Decision: Kick the field goal

    Going for it will net about 0.5 more points on average than kicking the field goal here. Another good reason to go for it is to try to go up 2 scores, while a field goal still keeps you up only a touchdown.
    Chargers 17, Bengals 10 – 14:20 left in 4th quarter – 4th and goal from CIN 5

    NYT 4th Down Bot Says: Too close to call

    Mike McCoy's Decision: Kick the field goal

    The numbers are pretty even here, with only a 0.1 point advantage on going for it. Kicking the field goal to go up 2 scores isn't a bad option in this situation.
    Chargers 20, Bengals 10 – 8:16 left in 4th quarter – 4th and 1 from CIN 40

    4th Down Calculator Says: Go for it

    Mike McCoy's Decision: Take a delay of game, then punt

    The 4th Down Bot didn't officially review the 4th and 1 situation due to the Chargers intentionally taking a delay of game penalty. This was by far the worst decision of the game for Mike McCoy. Going for it nets an expected 1.64 points. Punting nets the team 0.04 points of field position, a difference in 1.6 points. In terms of win percentage, the Chargers would win 95% of the time if they opted to go for it, versus 94% when punting. This was a decision that could have cost the Chargers the game.
    Chargers 20, Bengals 10 – 4:29 left in the 4th quarter – 4th and 3 from SD 48

    NYT 4th Down Bot Says: Go for it

    Mike McCoy's Decision: Punt the ball

    By win percentage, the Chargers win the game 95% of the time when going for it here, versus 91% when opting to punt. McCoy should have gone for it here.
    Conclusion

    This was not Mike McCoy's best game when it comes to 4th down decision making. The two most clear-cut 4th down decisions occurred in the 4th quarter, and he got it wrong both times. McCoy faced 8 fourth down situations, and he made the non-optimal decision on half of them. And on another one, he made the right decision, but he made it after horrendous play-calling left him no other option. It is good to trust Mike Scifres and the defense. It is better for it to not be necessary.

    The Chargers have their third meeting against the Broncos next week. Mike McCoy may need to be more aggressive to pull out the win.
     
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  11. Lance19

    Lance19 BoltTalker

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    To be fair, the Magic 8 Ball McCoy purchased for these occasions was defective
    (with the 20 possibilities as follows)

    ● Punt
    ● Better punt
    ● Without a doubt, punt!
    ● Yes definitely punt
    ● You may rely on Scifres
    ● As I see it, punt!
    ● Most likely downed inside 20
    ● Outlook good for a punt
    ● Yes, punt it!
    ● Signs point to punt
    ● Reply hazy, flip a coin
    ● Who doesn't love a nice hanging punt?
    ● WWJD? Punt!
    ● Cannot predict now, better punt
    ● Belichick would probably punt here
    ● Look elsewhere, wonder what Weddle's doing
    ● My reply is "No 4th down attempt"
    ● My sources say Mathews sore: punt!
    ● Outlook not so good, so punt
    ● Go for the first down!!

    punt.jpg
     
    Last edited: Jan 6, 2014
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  12. ETicket

    ETicket Well-Known Member

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    The article forgot to leave an email address, so here it is.

    Send questions to:
    armchairqb@hindsight100%.com



    :p j/k - that is actually an interesting read.
     
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  13. Burlington Bolt Brother

    Burlington Bolt Brother BoltTalker

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    thanks for having humor...the guys mobbin up with you are not laughing in that way though. what's sad is that Conc would actually agree with much of what I say were it not for him sticking to his declarations. Pretty sure I could start a thread on the world not being flat and he would side with anyone disagreeing.
     
  14. Concudan

    Concudan Caffeinated Commando

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    There is a certain level of hindsight. That said, there is value in using something to measure expectations against. What I disagree with is where I see people trying to judge the coaches ability in a dynamic situation with a static device such as this list. There is far more involved in making a judgement to go or not go for it than what quarter it is, and where you are. You have to factor in what your line can do, what theirs can do, wind, etc...

    I was ticked when I saw Whisenhunt playing for the punt, three runs in a row after a holding call in our part of the field, and get frustrated when at times like the 4th and 1 in near FG range we don't go, but the bottom line is did we win the game. If we did, then much of the impact of some piece of paper is removed. You can second guess to next Sunday, but in the end, did we win. If the Coach made the right call for that situation, it trumps any static list on paper, same with going for 2.
     
  15. Burlington Bolt Brother

    Burlington Bolt Brother BoltTalker

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    Again, Whisenhunt doesn't make the decision to play for a punt. It's the same thing as deciding to go for it on 4th down
     
  16. Jesse Kemp

    Jesse Kemp BoltTalker

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    That article called McCoy cowardly for punting in a tie game on 4th & 1 at his own 34. And again for punting on 4th & 3 from his own 48, up by 10. Soooo apparently every head coach in the NFL is a pansy because I haven't seen a coach go for it in that situation all season. Either that, or they need to read up on the internet on how to coach better.

    Can that bot factor in how well our defense was playing? Or how badly Andy Dalton was playing? Or that we were playing the Bengals defense in the playoffs, as opposed to say the Jags in week six. I don't see how that thing is supposed to be coming up with hard numbers that are specifically relevant to that game. I'm assuming it uses averages from all similar situations (assuming it has the sample size to reach a reliable average in any given case). But what if the opposition is better than average?
     
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  17. Burlington Bolt Brother

    Burlington Bolt Brother BoltTalker

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    I agree with the examples you brought up (only in that they may not be as bad as presented), the problem is McCoy goes back further than this game and the inarguably worst one was in that game.
     
  18. Burlington Bolt Brother

    Burlington Bolt Brother BoltTalker

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    lol...there's Conc!!!
     
  19. HollywoodLeo

    HollywoodLeo Well-Known Member

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    Are we seriously nitpicking coaching decisions after a playoff win?
     
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  20. Burlington Bolt Brother

    Burlington Bolt Brother BoltTalker

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    hell yes! a win doesn't make any bad play or coaching decision above scrutiny. If McCoy were a player fukking up almost every game and the team was still winning, would it be ok with you?
     
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  21. Burlington Bolt Brother

    Burlington Bolt Brother BoltTalker

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    your conc button coming soon! lol
     
  22. HollywoodLeo

    HollywoodLeo Well-Known Member

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    Is the team still winning? Then I don't care.
     
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  23. Burlington Bolt Brother

    Burlington Bolt Brother BoltTalker

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    yay
     
  24. Jesse Kemp

    Jesse Kemp BoltTalker

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    He's not without his mistakes. I will look for his biggest improvement from year one to year two to be in game management. I have no idea what's normal for rookie head coaches, but I want better than normal so I don't really care about all that. I still believe that the value he has brought to our team in fixing the offense far outweighs the situational gaffes that have cropped up.
     
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  25. HollywoodLeo

    HollywoodLeo Well-Known Member

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    I'm a fan.

    What am I supposed to get out of this? I don't make personnel decisions. Why am I supposed to care to that extent whether each decision he made was "right" or "wrong"?

    I barely care enough about criticizing coaching/player/etc after losses, but at least then it makes some amount of sense to me because we're trying to decide if we agree on why the losses are happening. After a win, especially a playoff win, it seems pointless to me.

    But carry on. I'm just explaining my perspective.
     
  26. Bramare

    Bramare BoltTalker

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    This one definitely belongs in the "McCoy's Mistakes" thread: not going for it on that 4th and 4 against the Patriots signaled the end of the game.

    What if you worked at a winery and put in all the effort to see the grapes through the season, picked, crushed, fermented, barreled, aged, bottled and your boss's only job is to cork them but he doesn't do it. All the effort is wasted! It all goes bad!

    Not given a last chance to taste sweet success has got to hurt. But good thing for McCoy football players are dummies so they might not be able to connect the dots on this issue.
     
    Last edited: Dec 11, 2014

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