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Mike McCoy ... First HC to be fired this season?

Discussion in 'Chargers Fan Forum' started by Blue Bolt, Sep 2, 2016.

  1. Blue Bolt

    Blue Bolt Persona Non Grata

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    Predicting the first NFL coach fired (it'll be Mike McCoy)
    By: Nate Scott | September 2, 2016 8:09 am Follow @aNateScott

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    The NFL season is upon us, which means it’s time for my favorite prop bet of every year — namely, predicting which NFL coach will be the first to be fired. There is an art to this bet, a thought process that goes beyond “which coach is bad?” (Though “which coach is bad” is very much a part of this, as we will discuss later.)

    Before we get to the horses this year, let’s take a look at some of what you should be evaluating when trying to predict who is the first coach to get canned. (All odds listed from Sportsline.)

    1. Is he a bad coach?
    This is self-explanatory. Good coaches aren’t getting fired. Bill Belichick and Bruce Arians will not be discussed here, because they are good coaches. Bad coaches, well, being a bad coach is a good way to get fired. Jim Caldwell (+450), for example, has shown to be a pretty bad coach. We are going to be talking a bit about Jim Caldwell.

    2. How is he with the front office?
    Front offices aren’t going to keep around coaches they don’t like, even if the coach is doing well. Call this the Chuck Pagano (+1600) Corollary. Pagano, who is actually a decent coach in my opinion, has reportedly had some testy exchanges with Colts GM Ryan Grigson, and if there’s a power struggle there, Pagano might find his way out the door. This is stupid, but things in the NFL are too rarely smart.

    3. How is he with the fans/media?
    If a coach can sell the media on his “vision,” or is just a plain likable dude, that’s a way to keep your job for longer than you might deserve. If the columnists aren’t calling for your head and fans aren’t staging boycotts, it’s easier for ownership to tolerate a 6-10 season. We’ll call this the Rex Ryan (+2500) Principle.

    4. Is he new or did he just sign a contract extension?
    Owners aren’t going to fire a head coach they just hired. It makes them look stupid, and even if it is shown to be a stupid decision, they aren’t going to prove their stupidity by firing a guy they just hired. Dirk Koetter (+2000) in Tampa Bay, feel safe my man!

    This holds true with contract extensions, usually. (Unless it’s Pagano, who just signed an extension with the Colts, and who I can’t say is safe because I have absolutely no idea what the Indianapolis ownership and front office is doing.)

    5. Does the team have expectations?
    This is the big one. For me, if we were going by any other metric here, Caldwell would be the easy choice for the first to get fired. The Detroit Lions are probably going to stink — Calvin Johnson is gone, Matt Stafford looks like he might never make the leap, the defense has taken a step back — and Caldwell looked like a guy who should have been fired last year.

    But that mediocrity might actually protect him. No one really expects the Lions to be any good this year. If the team starts out 1-4, well, sure. They’re the Lions.

    Which is why my pick for first to be fired this year is a boring one, as he is the favorite, Mike McCoy (+350) in San Diego. The team will possibly be playing its final year in San Diego, meaning there will be pressure from the fans to be good. Phil Rivers will be in his age-34 season, meaning the time for him to make a serious run at a Super Bowl is dwindling. The team has very good skill players in Keenan Allen and Antonio Gates, Danny Woodhead can make stuff happen, they have an improved offensive line, and they finally signed Joey Bosa to help their defense.

    Basically, the Chargers could be a good football team. With a very good coach, they have the potential to be a very good, perhaps even great football team. And these expectations are what will doom Mike McCoy.

    The Chargers begin their season away at the Chiefs, home to a frisky Jaguars side, away against Andrew Luck and the Colts, home vs. the Saints and then away at a rejuvenated Raiders side.

    If the Chargers are sitting at 1-4 after that start, I think that makes the Thursday night game against the Broncos McCoy’s Alamo. If Trevor Siemian and the Broncos defense comes in and smacks them, game over. If Jim Caldwell is still somehow employed, which I will say is a big if, I think that marks the end of Mike McCoy’s tenure in San Diego. Friday, October 14, McCoy is fired, and you can all cash in. You’re welcome.

    By that same idea, my favorite slightly longer shot is Gus Bradley (+1200) of Jacksonville. There’s some hype about the Jaguars this year, Blake Bortles has looked good, and team owner Shahid Khan has shown he’s not afraid to fire a coach who isn’t producing. (He owns a soccer team in England, Fulham, that’s fired about 27 managers in the last four years.) McCoy and Bradley are my guys.
     
  2. Lawyers guns & money

    Lawyers guns & money BoltTalker

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    The Chargers aren't that talented or are they? Impossible to say with this guy. But I will say that the 2's, 3's and 4's exhibit the same basic problems as the 1's. That looks like coachin to me.
     
  3. ChargerMike

    ChargerMike BoltBruthaFromAnuthMutha

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    Spanos' lack of spending quality jack for good players with be the ultimate demise of McCoy......much like every other coach that has passed through this organization......
    There's a reason why Kraft is in the playoffs every year.....he spends the money...for quality players....Spanos will NEVER be that guy......that's reality.....and ultimately, may be HIS demise in the city of San Diego......
    It all comes down to..... YOU GET WHAT YOU PAY FOR.
     
  4. Blue Bolt

    Blue Bolt Persona Non Grata

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    Actually, you have it backwards. Dean spends the money on the roster, the CBA demands that, and the Chargers never try to seriously undercut the salary cap, they go right up to it. You can certainly say that they don't spend that money wisely, but they do spend it.

    Where Dean is cheap, is where he can get away with it..... like coaches and GMs salaries, where there is no league mandated amount. One of the big reasons we have McCoy and Telesco in the first place is that they were cheap. A first time HC and GM cannot demand the big $, and Spanos wasn't about to give it to them. If Dean would actually spend the money to get a top HC candidate, then perhaps you would see better results. That's never going to happen though as along as Spanos is running the show.
     
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  5. Lawyers guns & money

    Lawyers guns & money BoltTalker

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    Truth.
     
  6. JohnnyX

    JohnnyX 2017 Chargers Head Coach

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    This makes me sad. Even if MM and TT are fired, the next coach will be straight off the NFL penny saver coach list. My guess is Lovie Smith or Some Assistant Coach from the Jags and Dolphins. Smh
     
  7. HollywoodLeo

    HollywoodLeo Well-Known Member

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    I don't know. Retread HCs don't always work out.

    Without having actually looked up statistics on the matter I'd venture to guess success rates don't differ too much from first time HCs.

    I'm definitely unsure as far as the GMs go.

    At the end of the day the right hires are what matters, not what's spent on them.
     
  8. Blue Bolt

    Blue Bolt Persona Non Grata

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    Yep, and that's why they chose McCoy over Arians...... It's all about the ability to spot talent.

    Spanos + Telesco = Genius.
     
  9. Blitzy

    Blitzy Spanos Chargers Troll

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    fifY ;)
     
  10. Carlsbad_Bolt_Fan

    Carlsbad_Bolt_Fan Well-Known Member

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    As others have said, Spanos does spend up to the cap.

    Truth be told, I thought McCoy was going to be fired when he walked out of a press conference. Don't even get me started on the Raider game we lost at home.

    As for the Patriots, you're a bit off there. They'll cut/trade you in a heartbeat. Look at the trade with Arizona last season. Going back further, they franchise tagged Matt Cassell and then traded him to the Chiefs. Nothing is off the table with them.
     
  11. HollywoodLeo

    HollywoodLeo Well-Known Member

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    Nowhere in my post did I say they made the right hires.

    I was simply arguing that success rate is not necessarily directly proportional with the amount of money spent in GM and HC hires.
     
  12. Blue Bolt

    Blue Bolt Persona Non Grata

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    Perhaps not directly proportional, since some new hires turn out to be good at their job. However, it's hard to argue against the notion that proven talent doesn't come cheap. In effect, the Spanos family hopes to catch lightning in the bottle, rather than paying for quality talent.

    That's like hoping all your UDFAs turn out to be Antonio Gates. Not really a solid plan for building a winning organization.
     
  13. HollywoodLeo

    HollywoodLeo Well-Known Member

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    It is hard to argue against the notion that proven talent doesn't come cheap, which is probably why I never attempted to argue against that.

    What I was arguing is that often times when you pay top dollar for proven talent you wind up paying them for what they did for other teams while they falter with your own.

    EVERY hire is a risk no matter what their back ground or cost is.
     
  14. Blue Bolt

    Blue Bolt Persona Non Grata

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    Your argument applies to players more than coaches. A player loses a physical skill set with age.

    A coach should actually get better with experience. If a coach is unable to replicate their prior success, that's more likely due to the available talent they have to work with, than their loss of ability. Therefore, while there are no guarantees, it's still a better bet to hire a coach that's been successful than one with zero track record at that level.
     
  15. HollywoodLeo

    HollywoodLeo Well-Known Member

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    There's a lot of things in life that should happen in theory but don't in reality.

    It's a fact of life that coaches who had success in the past in the NFL don't always succeed with their new team.

    It's also a fact of life that first time coaches succeeding in the NFL isn't as rare as an UDFA TE becoming a hall of fame player.
     
  16. Blue Bolt

    Blue Bolt Persona Non Grata

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    I really get the feeling that you're extending this argument purely for the sake of arguing. ;)

    Face it, the reason we have an inexperienced HC and GM is because Dean promoted his young sons to run the organization. It was a combination of Dean's inherent cheapness, and him wanting to hire people who his youngsters would feel comfortable with. Getting older more experienced people would make things hard for Little Johnny in particular.

    I guess it all depends on what you consider "succeeding." Gates wasn't a HOF TE in a day, and even many great coaches weren't successful initially. Belichick's first HC gig in Cleveland was hardly what you'd call a success. I'm not sure why you keep insisting because it isn't a 100% given that an experienced hire is a better option than a 1st time HC that therefore experience is somehow overrated or unimportant. I hope that's not what you're saying, because if it is, than that's simply stupid.
     
  17. HollywoodLeo

    HollywoodLeo Well-Known Member

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    What gives you the impression that I was extending the argument for the sake of arguing? Because I didn't completely change my mind after one post and agree with you?

    I'm not the one making multiple posts arguing that ownership wants to be cheap by hiring first time head coaches (and GM's) just because they did so for the first time after Marty Schottenheimer and Norv Turner (hint: Neither was a first time HC) were done with their tenures.

    But maybe I am arguing just to argue now since I decided to come back to this? I don't know. The crux of my argument remains the same: 2nd and 3rd time around head coaches don't always succeed and first time head coaches have enough of a success rate that it's not inconceivable to think they can find the right hire even if they go that route.
     
  18. Lawyers guns & money

    Lawyers guns & money BoltTalker

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    When have the Chargers ever hired a 1st time head coach and had success? Boss Ross wasn't an NFL head coach but had been a successful college head coach. They've never been able to identify coordinator talent that was ready to step up.
     
  19. HollywoodLeo

    HollywoodLeo Well-Known Member

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    Considering the amount of overall success the Chargers have had at all over the years that constricts the data set too much to be reliable.

    You need to look at first time HC success rate overall, not just that with the Chargers.
     
  20. Lawyers guns & money

    Lawyers guns & money BoltTalker

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    I'm not looking for league wide stats. We're talking about the Chargers and a particular set of individuals who don't seem to be able to identify coaching talent. I realize guys can step up and be successful as first time HC's. Our guys just can't identify them.

    Consequently, the best we can do is get someone who has been successful elsewhere. That has its own set of problems but there's a better chance we succeed. Unfortunately those guys cost more which is where Spanos penny pinching hurts us. They do t want to pay for guys who have had success and can't identify those who have never done it
     
  21. Blue Bolt

    Blue Bolt Persona Non Grata

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    I think you're missing the point entirely. The best coaches don't become available, because teams extend their contracts. 14-2 coaches don't get fired, unless your name is Marty, and you work for the Chargers.

    My point was simple..... experience usually trumps inexperience. That's more true for coaches and GMs than players, because age isn't an issue when you're not an athlete. Your argument seems to be that because first time coaches are sometimes successful, that means that experience is somehow not preferred or unimportant.

    If a coach becomes available a lot, that's because he's not a good coach, or he's been put into terrible situations by ownership or a GM. But, most likely, they aren't a good enough coach to overcome a less than ideal environment. There's a difference between a guy with experience as a HC, and a guy that's a retread. You seem to lump them all together.

    What is very hard to imagine, is that an ownership that has continually shown bad judgement would suddenly strike gold when hiring a candidate with zero experience at that position...... either a HC or GM. Particularly, when it's filling both positions at the same time.
     
  22. HollywoodLeo

    HollywoodLeo Well-Known Member

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    And my point is that you're accusing the ownership of not wanting to hire experienced coaches when 2 of the last 3 had previous experience.

    Also, there was extenuating circumstances involving Marty so let's not rehash that on this board for the 20 millionth time.
     
  23. Jesse Kemp

    Jesse Kemp BoltTalker

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    Some time ago I did some research to compare the success rates of retreads Vs college hires Vs first time coaches from within the NFL. I don't remember the numbers, but college coaches had the highest success rate though with a much smaller sample size. Retread coaches had a much better success rate than first time guys.
     
  24. Blue Bolt

    Blue Bolt Persona Non Grata

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    So, you're conveniently glossing over their poor decision making when it comes to evaluating said talent. You know very well that Norv was chosen when most of the best candidates had already been hired, because Dean made his decision to fire Marty so late. The pool of available candidates was limited, but they did pick Norv over both Rivera and Ryan. Guess who's no longer a HC, and who still are.

    I'm not accusing the ownership of never hiring experienced candidates, but I am saying that they didn't this time for both monetary reasons, and because Johnny wanted someone young like himself. Someone he wouldn't be intimidated by. You read what I write, but somehow you gloss over everything. They could've hired Arians, but they took McCoy instead. They went for the guy with less coaching experience.
     

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