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Need vs. BPA ?

Discussion in 'NFL Draft' started by TheLash, Mar 5, 2007.

  1. TheLash

    TheLash Well-Known Member

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    Ok guys I'm participating in LWIII this year which will be my 1st mock draft. I've done loads of fantasy football drafts but never one of these. My big question to you all is this:
    Do you draft for need or do you draft the Best Player Available?
    I realize its always a conditional decision and there is no absolute always right answer, however I would say it's most sensible to draft based on need because if you don't then you still have that need to fill.

    I'm still trying to formulate my draft strategy so any feedback is appreciated.

    :abq1: Lash Out:abq1:
     
  2. Thumper

    Thumper WHS

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    I can't say what others strategy is, but I would take into consideration both Need & Best Player Available.

    What I mean is that I'd first consider the players available in the positions that I have a need. Take into consideration how bad is the need and how many other needs I have. Maybe if I have a ton of needs I try to trade down and fill multiple positions.

    Now if I have to pick at my spot and all of my "need" players rank substantially lower than the Best Player Available, maybe I draft into a strength, but I still wouldn't draft a position where I have one of the best players in the league on my team with a first round pick. An example would be I would never expect AJ Smith to draft a RB in the first round while LT is in town.

    Hope that help ya.
     
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  3. underoath

    underoath BoltTalker

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    i dont see how you can go wrong with drafting BPA.

    saints went pretty far after drafting Bush even though first round running back was far from their biggest need.
     
  4. Ride The Lightning

    Ride The Lightning Join the Dark Side, we have cookies.

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    I firmly believe you get BPA irregardless of need. Saints & Bush is a prime example just as eldwin stated.
     
  5. Thumper

    Thumper WHS

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    It's pretty easy to bring up a single case. In the Saints situation there was a big gap between Bush and the next best player available. In that case I would definitely go for the BPA. It the gap was small in what a team had determined as the talent differencial, I'd go for the position of need. If the gap is large, I'd go for the BPA. If you're really lucky, the BPA is also a player of a position of need.
     
  6. Thumper

    Thumper WHS

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    LT and Bush on the same team? That would be plain sick. That high of talent level you'd have to do it, but RB is definately not a position of need for the Chargers.
     
  7. Electric Chair

    Electric Chair New Member

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    I remember reading that AJ always stays true to his boards. They rank players, and regardless of need they draft BPA. I'm sure that their board reflects need to some degree, but you can never have too much talent at any position.
     
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  8. TheLash

    TheLash Well-Known Member

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    thanks for the feedback:tup:

    seems to me like GBs big needs are RB,CB, S & maybe TE & WR. If I focus on those guys that should cover alot of the BPAs and hopefully my virtual ***.:icon_toast:
     
  9. underoath

    underoath BoltTalker

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    fine then look at the cardinals. they took larry fitzgerald after Boldin had a MONSTER rookie season with 1377 yards and 8 touchdowns.

    fitzgerald turned into a probowler and boldin is one too.

    or look when Larry Johnson fell into the laps of Kansas City at pick 27. Holmes came of a record setting year but the Chiefs still took Johnson. it worked out for them too.
     
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  10. Boltjolt

    Boltjolt Well-Known Member

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    Holmes had that hip injury and they didnt know if he was going to be able to play. That was a potentual need pick that they had no idea at the time just how big a need it was.
    That was called covering their as s.

    Denny Green was going to pick Fitz no matter what. He loves offense for one thing and another, Fitz was a ballboy for Green when he was the HC at Minnesota and Green knows Fitz Dad real well.

    Green didnt draft that well for AZ anways. Alot of those guys havent panned out for him.

    Bush was a good pick because McAlister was coming off of a torn ACL and usually RB's dont come back that great from them the first year. Took Edge two yeas afterwards to be himself. McGahee took two years. I think McAllister was an exception. Carson Palmer too. He was realy a surprise.

    Agree that there are times when you jus cant pass on a guy but i guarantee you we wont be picking Adrian Peterson if we could. We would make a deal first and trade down or pick somebody else.
     
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  11. LT-Express

    LT-Express Bolttalk.com Janitor since 06' Staff Member Super Moderator

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    you beat me to that...I was just about to say all that just not in so many words! As for all the talk about trading down to stock pile picks this year for us, is like choosing to trade the house to move up for 1 guy in the first! AJ WILL NOT trade out of the first round! Especially with big name players falling like flys (Reggie Nelson, Patrick Willis) he will get a good value pick at #30!
     
  12. Thumper

    Thumper WHS

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    Look at Louis Castillo. We picked him for a need when there were higher rated guys on the board. They just weren't that much higher.

    Actually I think this is silly because I for the most part agree. If there is someone with much higher talent, take him regardless of whether the player is of a position of need. I just don't think a blanket statement that you take only take the BPA no matter what your needs are and regardless of how close this player ranks on your board to another in a postion of need. Needs have to be a consideration. You have to be flexible. I'm sure you could come up with ten more examples of where the BPA was picked and it worked out great & I could probably come up with ten cases where a player of need worked out perfectly. I sure don't feel like doing all the research, and if I did it still wouldn't really mean anything.
     
  13. underoath

    underoath BoltTalker

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    either way you try to spin it, fitz and LJ were the BPA at the time.

    palmer was no surprise going first overall.

    as for us skipping over peterson, there is no way to back up your guarantee, therefore its just your opinion and you could never prove it.
     
  14. underoath

    underoath BoltTalker

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    well it doesnt matter if you do the research or not, because i believe with an extremely strong conviction that taking BPA is almost always a smart move. sure you can do the whole 20/20 thing, but at the time, how are you going to convince a GM to pass on a better player than the one they have highest rated and is available??? ask AJ why he took Charlie.

    Khalif Barnes might be the only prospect I had rated higher than castillo but it still worked out.
     
  15. Thumper

    Thumper WHS

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    I don't think you got my point, but hey, we're all entitled to different opinions. Peace bro!
     
  16. underoath

    underoath BoltTalker

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    i get your point, and i understand the flexibility that you have to maintain. its important to keep your roster well balanced and with good depth. so I understand about drafting for need.

    but EVEN still, I dont see how you pass up on an franchise player even if he doesn't fill your biggest need.

    i mean, we have seen what average players are worth in trade value. draft the elite guy and just trade him on draft day if you dont want him. or trade the guy he is replacing.

    I look at draftees as commodities that are traded just like anything else with a big value.
     
  17. Thumper

    Thumper WHS

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    I never said that you pass on a franchise player regardless of need. I do believe I said I agree with you on that point. My point was if the best player available is only slightly higher in talent than a player that fills a need, you have to consider the player that fills a need.

    NOWHERE did I mention not drafting an "elite" or "franchise" player so judging by this last post, you never did get my point. No worries though. I'm not trying to bust on you. I'm just trying to be as clear as possible on this subject.
     
  18. underoath

    underoath BoltTalker

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    same here, not baggin on u. im just explaining my stance. and I figured this thread has mainly to do with the top of the draft and not, for example, the mid to late rounds where you are primarily drafting the best players available at positions you need depth help at.

    there are a handful of franchise players at the top of the draft this year, so it makes sense for the raiders to go with need, and I think they need a QB. but I still think that calvin is the best player in the entire draft and anyone who picks him is making a good choice - yes that includes Detroit lol!
     
  19. Boltjolt

    Boltjolt Well-Known Member

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    The Raiders have needed a QB for a while and have still passed on some really good ones the past 3 drafts and i think they will do it again.
     
  20. RipTheJacker

    RipTheJacker Well-Known Member

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    Ive always believed to you the best available player THAT FITS A NEED

    It doesnt have to be the biggest need, as long as it it is a need

    Sure there are rare exceptions (like the saints getting Bush), but for the most part, you take BPA that fits a need
     
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  21. nickelbolt

    nickelbolt Fuggedaboutit

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    I think Reggie definitely filled a need. S.Payton comes from the Parcells system where two RBs are a staple. Change of pace/versatile out-of-the-backfield guy is what Reggie is... along with his obvious return skills. So he still fits your criteria. :tup:
     
  22. BoltzRule

    BoltzRule Well-Known Member

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    Yea that's pretty much the way I see. Basically have our needs and pick whoever is the best player available that can fill it. If you have to reach for one then you should trade down.

    Even if it's not a big need if there's a player much better than the others I don't see how you pass on him. Unless like mentioned it's at RB or QB.
     
  23. Alpenbolt

    Alpenbolt BoltTalker

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    Turds should go with Oline so Joe Thomas is the clear choice for them in my opinion. They need to keep drafting offensive linemen until they get it right.
     
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  24. Thumper

    Thumper WHS

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    :icon_rofl:
     

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