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Nonsense and Non Sequiturs

Discussion in 'The Lounge' started by Blue Bolt, Apr 19, 2011.

  1. Blue Bolt

    Blue Bolt Persona Non Grata

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    Mormon's are polite to a fault (except Mitt). ;)
     
  2. Blue Bolt

    Blue Bolt Persona Non Grata

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  3. Blue Bolt

    Blue Bolt Persona Non Grata

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    Too bad this isn't the Chargers new slogan. ;)

    [​IMG]
     
  4. Blue Bolt

    Blue Bolt Persona Non Grata

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    Bill Polian believes that Moneyball does not work in the NFL, and here’s why he’s wrong

    There's no questioning the credentials of former NFL executive Bill Polian. When you build teams to a championship or near-championship level as Polian did with the Buffalo Bills (1986-1993), Carolina Panthers (1994-1997) and Indianapolis Colts (1998-2009), you've got a history that will have people very interested in what you have to say. Polian says a lot in his current capacity as an analyst for ESPN, but he has nothing good to say about the trend that has more and more NFL teams exploring sabermetrics as an additional way to evaluate the efficiency and productivity of players.

    "Absolutely not," Polian recently told Tim O'Shei of Buffalo Business First, when O'Shei asked Polian if those types of principles could work in the NFL. Polian, who has long been dismissive of an approach to team building that incorporates advanced stats, believes that financial constraints get in the way of principles that have personnel executives thinking outside the box.

    “As a practical tool, Moneyball does not work in the NFL because there are very few undervalued players and no middle class because of our salary cap,” Polian said. “There is no middle class in football because the minimum salaries are so high, and because of the salary cap, a player will reach a point where you can’t keep him. They go. They’re going to get big money elsewhere.”

    Well, we're not sure what Polian means by "Moneyball," though we suspect that he's thinking of a very one-dimensional definition -- putting your team in the hands of number-crunchers and throwing the film-watchers aside. It's the same old scouts-vs.-stats argument that Oakland A's general manager Billy Beane tried successfully to circumvent more than a decade ago, making him the subject of Michael Lewis' book, and a subsequent successful movie.

    Beane didn't mean stats over scouts, though that's the argument used by people like Polian and other Luddites like Joe Morgan when they rail on about Moneyball's ineffectiveness over time. What Beane was trying to do was to fight the exact issue Polian talked about -- the churn of your best players to other teams -- by using any means necessary to find undervalued assets, and constantly discovering new ways to do so. For Beane, it started with on-base percentage as a super-stat, but his sabermetric concepts were rooted firmly in an understanding that physical tools were specifically important. Beane didn't always hit the jackpot, but he was able to maintain competitiveness despite a severe financial disadvantage.

    How does this apply to the NFL? We might argue that the need to find new ways to evaluate personnel and find those undervalued assets. Despite what Polian believes, there are undervalued players all over the place -- and that's kind of a silly thing to say.

    You need look no further than this Sunday's wild-card matchup between the Seattle Seahawks and Washington Redskins, when a Seattle team led by quarterback Russell Wilson will tussle with a Washington franchise helped greatly by sixth-round pick Alfred Morris, who finished second in the league in rushing yardage. Wilson lasted until the third round because many teams questioned his ability to start in the NFL at 5-foot-10 5/8, while Morris dropped even lower in the draft because his Florida Atlantic career didn't impress teams with big-school biases, and he was thought to be straight-line slow by some. Those stories are all over the NFL.

    Too small, too slow, too small a school, we don't like his [insert cliché here]. That player goes off to another team, and your team owner is looking at you, Mr. GM, wondering why you weren't ahead of the curve. Mike Freeman of CBS Sports recently reported that the quick rise of Wilson, who lasted until the 75th overall selection in the draft, had a lot of NFL people under the proverbial gun for not seeing what the Seahawks saw, and taking the risk they were willing to take.

    Such moves don't move Polian, however. He seems to believe that there is no consistent way to establish success through advanced and creative organizational thinking.

    “Truly, on any given Sunday and in any given year, anybody can win," he said. "Now, you can’t win for long, which is why nobody will ever go to four straight Super Bowls again. The system is designed to take good teams and rob them of players. That’s the way it is.”

    Phil Emery of the Bears is one of many execs with a new understanding of the game.

    But several teams are taking to those advanced metrics as a way to balance out the more traditional ways of doing things, and with great success. The San Francisco 49ers were one of the first teams to do so when they hired current COO Paraag Marathe in 2011. The former venture capital and private equity advisor for Bain & Company quickly reached out to the people who were trying to do for football what Bill James did for baseball a generation ago, and he incorporated those ideas into the franchise's more traditional outlook. In his second year as COO, Marathe is a key cog for a team that has lost just seven regular-season games over that period of time.

    Many other NFL teams have followed suit by either consulting with people like Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders, the staff of STATS, Inc, and Pro Football Focus, or by hiring their own in-house analysts to crunch efficiency data and find out which metrics best correlate to winning. In the end, that's what Moneyball is all about, in whatever guise it's presented -- finding new, and different, and better, ways to win. The fact that Polian doesn't think it works in the NFL may explain why he doesn't currently work in the NFL. Certainly, it would put him on the wrong side of the curve.

    In a New Year's Day explanation of the ways in which he evaluates his offensive line, Chicago Bears GM Phil Emery cited metrics put together by STATS, Inc. and Pro Football Focus as part of the overall equation. Not the entire equation, but an attempt to find the right kind of balance between coaching, tape evaluation, and statistical analysis.

    "Yes, we're going to pay attention to the coach's grades," Emery said. "Yes, we're going to pay attention to our internal scouting grades. But let's look at this another way. I went to STATS Inc., [and] went through all the numbers. Went to Pro Football Focus, did all the numbers. I'm familiar with STATS Inc. We're one of their contracted teams. Spent quite a bit of time with their people, not only their programmers but went to their offices, watched how they grade tape, how they triple check all their facts. So I trust all their data, that's it's unbiased, that it doesn't have my hands in it, that it doesn't have our coach's or scout's hands in it, or anybody else in the league. They are simply reporting fact. Some ways to look at it is in a very Moneyball way, crunching the numbers."

    And the Bills recently hired their own "numbers guy" in the person of new team president Russ Brandon. When Brandon was the executive director of business development for the Florida Marlins, he learned about the practical value of advanced stats from Dave Dombrowski, now the main man with the Detroit Tigers.

    "Dave was all about scouting," Brandon said on Jan. 1. "He was also about layering in the analytics to what the game presented. We've seen it in the NBA. We've seen it more in baseball. It's starting to spruce its head a little bit in football, and I feel we're missing the target if we don't invest in that area of our operation, and we will.

    "We are going to create and establish a very robust football analytics operation that we layer into our entire operation moving forward. That's something that's very important to me and the future of the franchise."

    Current GM Buddy Nix reacted in a Polian-like fashion, but if he wants to stick around -- with the Bills or anywhere else in the NFL -- he'd better learn to breathe where the oxygen is.

    "You know, obviously, I'm old-school in more ways than one," Nix said. "It'll be something I'll have to get used to, because I go a lot on feel and what I see."

    Obviously, there's nothing wrong with using a lifetime of football acumen and instinct when it comes time to make key decisions. But those executives who willfully bury their heads in the sand and avoid the advantages other personnel people are using will eventually find that they're playing checkers while the rest of the league is playing chess.

    Most likely, they'll also discover that they'll have a lot more free time to do so.
     
  5. Blitzy

    Blitzy Rainbow Bolt

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    Can someone email The Deaner that Jim Mora video snippet about the POs please?! You gotta be friggin kidding me about the POs! Does this Maroon realize that this team is not the 2006-2007 team/roster anymore?! :confused: :poop: :eek:
     
  6. Blitzy

    Blitzy Rainbow Bolt

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    What AJ said and what he did were two totally different things. Like I said, spurious deeds!
     
  7. Blue Bolt

    Blue Bolt Persona Non Grata

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    Norv tried to be gentle, but fans took it as a potshot and an insult...... Oh well. ;)
     
  8. Blue Bolt

    Blue Bolt Persona Non Grata

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    This kid will make you rethink Spanos leadership of Chargers
    By Kevin Acee
    Thursday, January 3, 2013

    A few years ago while tagging along on a scouting trip to Texas, I was a passenger in a rental car as John Spanos drove through rush hour traffic while simultaneously checking his directions and talking about the dynamic between his father, brother and himself.

    The topic at that moment was John’s counsel to his dad, Chargers President Dean Spanos, that he needed to not be so bothered by outside criticism, that he just needed to do what he thought was right and not worry about making people happy.

    As he spoke, the car drifted not quite into another lane, and a nervous driver laid on the horn.

    "You can't please all the people all the time," John said without a second’s delay as he corrected his course.

    I’m not declaring John’s stewardship will result in the Spanos name supplanting Rooney among dynastic NFL families. We won’t know what kind of decisions he will make until he’s the one making them. But I’ll never forget the poise, maturity and quick wit demonstrated in that moment in Texas. And I contend it says something about why John Spanos is not who you think he is and why he’ll do well when he achieves his life’s mission.

    John Spanos has been groomed for much of his life to someday take over the Chargers’ football operations -- working summers at training camp first, shagging balls, in the mailroom, as an errand boy, then a stint with the league and then back to the team as a scout, with time spent beginning at 18 helping negotiate contracts. (His brother, A.G., a year older at 34, did much the same and two years ago took over the Chargers’ day-to-day business operations.)

    John believes he is ready now, by the way, as he should. Confidence is the hallmark of a leader. But you can believe him when he says he is still focused on the journey so he can be best prepared when he reaches the destination.

    And even as he technically has the title of Director of College Scouting, John’s power in the organization is ever growing. And that influence underwent another revolution this week when A.J. Smith was fired after 10 years as the Chargers’ General Manager.

    John Spanos will likely receive a new title after the new G.M. is hired. That hire will come at some point after he participates in a small group of decision makers in hiring a new general manager and head coach.

    Now, the prevailing feeling is that John’s presence is a deterrent to potential general manager candidates. It’s a natural assumption and may, in fact, be true. It has long been known the path John is on to assume a role that is sort of a hybrid of his father’s and Smith’s.

    “I don’t think it would be at all,” John Spanos said of his presence being a negative. “I think if nothing else, my experience is going to give this team a great chance to succeed. The next G.M. is going to have full say over personnel matters. It’s not like in any way I would be a hindrance to his doing his job. If anything, it would be a benefit. Think about teams with owners who haven’t been around. I’ve been around this team, know the personnel. Why would that be a deterrent? Why wouldn’t it be a positive?”
    I’m telling you, if there is a guy who can pull off nepotism, making it seem not just a good idea but also really cool, John Spanos is that guy.

    I told him the other day that he couldn’t possibly argue that if his last name weren’t Spanos he wouldn’t be in position to one day run the football side of his family’s business.

    His answer was disarming.

    “Perhaps I would concede that,” he said. “But I know this -- and maybe if my last name wasn’t Spanos I woudn’t have the same passion for football that I do -- but I have such a strong passion for football I’d try to work in this business no matter what my last name was.”

    Normally, how do you not want to punch someone who begins a sentence with, “Perhaps I would concede ...”? But it was uttered so naturally in this case, I didn’t mind. That’s how cool John Spanos is.

    He will surprise you. He will make you rethink your definition of the word Spanos.

    For many years now, he has possessed an air of experience that is not at all smug, He’s refined without pretense. Genuine yet reserved.

    When you think of the owner of the Chargers also being the man who is running the football operations, don’t think Jerry Jones.

    Even when John Spanos does take over the Chargers’ football operations – two, three, four years from now – he will retain a personnel chief (a G.M., in other words) for counsel. And,presumably, so he eventually has someone to fire.

    “Anybody who is in a position of authority,” he said, “will tell you the smartest thing you can do is surround yourself with smart and successful people.”

    He will soon be in authority, and he will be smart.
     
  9. Blue Bolt

    Blue Bolt Persona Non Grata

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    Kevin Acee is really a terrible writer.
     
  10. Blitzy

    Blitzy Rainbow Bolt

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    Evidently John Spanos is a very good driver :tup:
     
  11. Blue Bolt

    Blue Bolt Persona Non Grata

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    Perhaps, he was subconsciously trying to eliminate Kevin from the "conversation". ;)
     
  12. Blitzy

    Blitzy Rainbow Bolt

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    Can you blame him for that? ;)
     
  13. Blue Bolt

    Blue Bolt Persona Non Grata

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    Certainly not........ I would've done the same in his place. ;)
     
  14. Blue Bolt

    Blue Bolt Persona Non Grata

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    Does he know something we don't?.......

    Antwan Barnes@vikes42
    Well i gave it all I had in san diego..the time spent there was amazing ..don't know where tomorrow will take me but I'm ready for the next
     
  15. Blue Bolt

    Blue Bolt Persona Non Grata

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  16. Blue Bolt

    Blue Bolt Persona Non Grata

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    2013 Chargers Free Agents

    RB - Jackie Battle
    RB - Curtis Brinkley
    RB - Ronnie Brown
    WR - Danario Alexander
    WR - Richard Goodman
    WR - Michael Spurlock
    TE - Dante Rosario
    PK - Nick Novak
    OG - Brandon Dombrowski
    OG - Tyronne Green
    OG - Rex Hadnot
    OG - Luis Vasquez
    LS - Mike Windt
    NT - Aubrayo Franklin
    DE - Vaughan Martin
    LB - Gary Guyton
    LB - Demorrio Williams
    OLB - Antwan Barnes
    OLB - Shaun Phillips
    CB - Chris Carr
    CB - Antoine Cason
    CB - Quentin Jammer
    SS - Corey Lynch
     
  17. jackfrost

    jackfrost Well-Known Member

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    This entire State is about to explode ............. insane temps all over the place, the heat is something weird, its so intense, not sure I've ever felt it this type hot before though.

    I recall a year or so back, we had a 4 day run of temps in the 40's+ ...............it was miserable.

    This today may be hotter than that patch and its suppose to be around mid 30's C (high 90's) till around Midnight !!! :eek:..............now thats some crazy shite right there !!!!
     
  18. newjerseydamo

    newjerseydamo BoltTalker

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    where you there when it was 116/47C when there was those massive fires in Vic? I was in the city, and -that- was intense!
     
  19. jackfrost

    jackfrost Well-Known Member

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    I lived through some damn incredible heat waves during St Louis Summers Dave .....................the humidity in that part of the Country makes even mid 90's an absolute bitch too swelter through .......... but this "heat" here is something entirey different again, just walking outside is the equivalent of walking into a sauna fully clothed and sitting for about 20 minutes., it makes your skin actually feel like its baking.
     
  20. jackfrost

    jackfrost Well-Known Member

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    I was living in Geelong that year Damo, when Black Saturday occured, no one will ever forget that entire 2 week period leading up to that day in fact, Ive just read up on that time and that is infact the week that we had the 3 straight days above 43C !!!!...........God, doesnt get much worse than that, sleeping was near impossible.

    To see complete towns disappear is hard to fathom, let alone 173 people perishing ............... makes you appreciate why this place is known as "The Sunburnt Country", doesn't it !!!

    Devastating day in our history :( .............. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Saturday_bushfires
     
  21. jackfrost

    jackfrost Well-Known Member

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    Pffffftttttt ...................Please !!!!!

    Like thats gonna happen, just how many times does a man have to prove his uselessness to be taken serious ???

    Get his arse outta here, no question whatsoever .....the dream is a now a nightmare for cryin' out loud.

    p.s ....."work his tail OUT" ????? (I could ..... but I wont)

    Really Eric ? ...................where'd this kid go to school again ?...................to many church required subjects studied and not enough English Lit. maybe ? ;)

    Then again, maybe in Utah it IS OUT rather than OFF !!!!
     
  22. jackfrost

    jackfrost Well-Known Member

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    Well luckily for some of us ( I think you may have swallowed this one whole, didn't you BLEW ? ;)) ..................... we haven't listened to a word Norf has said for years and again were proven correct for doing so....

    He was right on the money regarding Meachem being a #1 also, wasn't he !!! :whistling:
     
  23. jackfrost

    jackfrost Well-Known Member

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    You Pussy, those Yogi tights are obviously a size or 6 to small and affecting your ability to Man-up.

    Farg charitable, this isn't the Salvo's Wal Mart Xmas tin-rattlers we are talking here ................... this is FOOTBALL Man, something that really matters, so stick the PC bullshit where the sun don't shine and shelve those New Years resolutions along with all those Exe's of yours, put the Big Boy pants on (once you get them back from Ex #1) and show some backbone here Princess !!!!


    And as for BLEW admitting anything that may mean a slight retraction on his behalf ?.................good luck. :roflmao:

    P.S ....I do seem to have the Shartz problem under control currently .................. but that's only ONE wet slip-up away from out of control again. [​IMG]
     
    • Funny Funny x 1
  24. jackfrost

    jackfrost Well-Known Member

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    I'm told that Matt Millen is available for the GM's job too. :)
     
  25. jackfrost

    jackfrost Well-Known Member

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    Now would you agree that MAY be one of those "Fluff pieces" I was referring to in the past ????

    No !!!! :eek: ..............OK, just checking. :D
     
  26. jackfrost

    jackfrost Well-Known Member

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    FARG IT !!!! ...............I knew we could have used him for something worthwhile ......

    Vay Jay Jay's personal chauffer !!!!

    Damn it, missed the boat on that one I guess.
     
  27. jackfrost

    jackfrost Well-Known Member

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    OK, well you wouldn't need to be Frostadamus to figure that one out.... see ya Barnesy !!! :confused:

    Soooooo, can we add "another pass rusher" to the list of "needs" please .................Oh wait, maybe "Larry the not quite a legend yet" can fill that spot ??? :roflmao:
     
  28. jackfrost

    jackfrost Well-Known Member

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    OH Goody, I like these !!!

    Then throw in the usual suspects who arent FA's, but can't play a damn anyway and I believe we should be left with around 45 openings or thereabouts, for anyone who would like the opportunity to play football for a living.

    Man, that recruiting staff is sure gonna be busy this offseason...... :D
     
  29. Pumpkin Bolt

    Pumpkin Bolt Zin me!

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    Might want to think about trading down from #11 :helm1:

    Maybe if AJ gets hired we can get his 1st this yr and his 2nd round picks for the next 5 years!
     
  30. Charger Dave

    Charger Dave Dead account

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    Pretty sure the OUT came from Marty, as much as I like her I sometimes wonder if English was spoken at home when she was young.

    Weddle is a product of the "wonderful":rolleyes: public school system up around Rancho Cucamonga - SoCal boy who went to college in Utah.

    I think the team is figuring the Chargers will try to salvage some of the six mil out of Gaither come OCS and Weddle is drawing a line in the sand with him for the players that will be here. Personally, I believe that is one place they should absolutely cut their losses no matter how badly it hurts the CAP. Lots of dead CAP $ this year no matter which way the new crew turns.
     

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