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Planning for the worst possible draft scenario

Discussion in 'NFL Draft' started by matilack, Feb 16, 2013.

  1. matilack

    matilack #therealagent47

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    1. Chiefs - Star Lotulelei
    2. Jaguars - Bjoern Werner
    3. Raiders - Demontre Moore
    4. Eagles - Luke Joeckel: Honestly I think this is a ludicrous pick, but a lot of people think its going to happen.
    5. Lions - Dee Milliner
    6. Browns - Dion Jordan
    7. Cardinals - Eric Fisher: Again, a QB desperate team choosing to upgrade a position I would argue is already log jammed doesn't make sense to me...but again people seem to think its likely.
    8. Bills - Ezekiel Ansah
    9. Jets - Barkevious Mingo
    10. Dolphins - Lane Johnson: In a very likely scenario, the Fins trade up 2 spots for a 4th round pick to take the only 1st round caliber LT left.

    Now what? Anyone got any ideas?

    I think it would be very unwise to leave ourselves without options at LT entering the draft, that said I don't know how we're going to afford one in free agency. The real disturbing part is how there are no worthy pass rushers left at this point, or Dee Milliner, and I don't think this scenario is too far fetched.
     
  2. The LBC

    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    Well for one, it would cost the Dolphins more to trade up than a 4th - particularly with there being heavy suspicion that we'd covet an OT, Miami would be buying in a seller's market from Tennessee.

    And I realize this doesn't answer your question, the way you're looking for, but I literally see a less than 5% chance that two QB's don't go in the Top 10. But if there's not a trade back option in this current scenario (which I'd have to believe there would be with Tyler Wilson, Warmack, and all the WR's still on the board), that's when you start getting creative. It sounds a bit off - but considering we didn't run a pure 1-gap 3-4 last year, a guy like Shariff Floyd has the ability to project long-term as a 2-gap NT and if we have a stop-gap at run-plug, he can rotate through as a 5-tech and see time as a 1-tech in nickel and dime packages which he bridges the size/strength gap (the ideal situation for any rookie intended to project as a 0-tech long-term). Another option to explore is Ezekiel Ansah - a raw lump of clay, yes, but an extremely athletic one (though he make lack an elite first-step, with improved technique and seasoning he can develop a well-above-average one). And of course, there's also the War-lord (Warmack - as it could be argued that he could play at least 3 and possibly 4 positions in a zone scheme).

    I'm a major proponent that whenever you feel like the upside at your key areas of need are exhausted and you can't trade back, you invest your pick in one of the guys with the greatest upside (in particular if that upside has elite-potential). If those guys develop to their potential, they become the types of players that you quite frankly adapt your scheme to find ways to get on the field and trust in their God-given ability to do the rest for you.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  3. Lance19

    Lance19 BoltTalker

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    "I'm pretty sure "Barkevious Mingo" is a joke name, sir..."

    --Sillius Soddus

    Barkevious Mingo.jpg
     
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  4. matilack

    matilack #therealagent47

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    1. Based on "the draft chart" a 4th would easily do. But as for motive, what do the Titans have to lose by sliding back 2 spots at that point? Are the Chargers and Dolphins likely to take a player they want? They can take the extra 4th and select Warmack, Vaccaro, Floyd or whomever when the time comes. Also worth mentioning the Dolphins have extra picks in both the 2nd and 3rd rounds, so they have plenty of ammo if a 4th isn't enough.

    2. I agree I've been saying all along I think the Chiefs and Cardinals have almost no choice but to go QB, they have competent (albeit unimpressive) left tackles, and nobody to build a future around at the most important position on the field. At which point I think the Bills either take a QB themselves, or make a real attempt to trade back a few spots to salvage some value as there is nobody behind them other than maybe the Jets with huge QB problems...we might be able to low ball the Bills for a trade up to 8 in any case.

    3. As far as the worst case scenario, I love Floyd but its really a consolation price as the OT, CB, and OLB situations remain unsatisfactory. But you see my point right? If we don't go get a viable starting left tackle in FA, or god forbid keep Gaither around, we risk not getting one at all thanks to the fact that everyone and their mother knows we're going to draft Fisher or Johnson.

    The Dolphins are a dangerous team to our draft plans. I know they have Jonathan Martin, and they need a WR desperately, but nobody should be surprised if they decide to keep Martin at RT and bolster their O-line for the foreseeable future with Johnson.
     
  5. matilack

    matilack #therealagent47

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    Just heard the Bills signed Tavaris Jackson and announced Fitz will return. I'd say 3-4 OLB and WR are now their biggest needs, which is not good for us.
     
  6. The LBC

    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    It's more than just them having Jonathan Martin. They have Jonathan Martin AND a TE-convert that's beefed up to 300 lbs that they are extremely high on (Will Yeatman). And they also have needs of their own that could be bigger than OL - and a GM in Jeff Ireland who has made a habit out of drafting for need in the 1st round - like WR, CB (if Sean Smith isn't franchised or flies the coup), and FS (which I think may be a dark horse position for them in the 1st if Vaccaro manages to stand head and shoulders above the other safety prospects at the combine or in interviews). To be honest though, I expect the Phins to be more of a candidate to trade back than up - they're one of the three teams I've identified as likely spots someone will likely trade back into the 1st with aspirations of getting a QB), the others being St. Louis and Carolina.
     
  7. DenverBolt67

    DenverBolt67 BoltTalker

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    Carolina trading back in hopes to get a QB or just in general?
     
  8. The LBC

    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    Buddy Nix has still said he intends on drafting a QB. WR is likely a high need for them as they've got squat across from Stevie - but Buddy's been a pretty heavy value drafter there. If Tyler Wilson's available at that pick, I'd say he still has a high probability of coming off the board there. Buddy loves his SEC guys, so maybe that includes Moore now that A&M's in the conference (but it's only been a year so I'm not certain how much he'll consider their prospects SEC prospects yet) - more likely is he could bite on Jones or Mingo. More likely though I'd expect Wilson (it's a freaking SEC QB) or Cordarelle Patterson to be the pick.
     
  9. The LBC

    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    No... those are the teams I expect most likely to trade back with teams which would be looking to trade back into the 1st to target a QB (Jets, Bills, Cardinals... though less likely, still won't rule out Jacksonville or Cleveland because of their owners).
     
  10. DenverBolt67

    DenverBolt67 BoltTalker

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    Ok, had me scratching my head
     
  11. The LBC

    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    New Orleans is another candidate I could see moving back - but I'm not certain Mickey Loomis has the sense to. But Carolina - like New Orleans - is pretty tight up against the cap and I think would jump at the opportunity to get more out of that 1st round pick than just a single starter (not to mention the draft class is pretty deep at their major areas of need: WR, DT).

    Les Snead (St. Louis' GM) is just plain an accumulator. We say it last draft that the guy is more prone to trade back and acquire than trade up (which I'm sure plenty of people will try to project them to do given they have two 1st's, but I think Snead is more likely to go the route of New England and use one of the 1st's and trade back into the 2nd with the other and acquire more picks in order to keep constant ammo in the quiver).
     
  12. matilack

    matilack #therealagent47

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    I'm never against seeing us trade up, although I know its not the popular thing to do now days. Everyone wants to trade back and hoard draft picks, and they have a complex scheme in their head about how they're going to scam another teams future 1st rounder away by sliding back 5 spots. The Patriots have done this for years and their defense has deteriorated to the point where they simply don't win if they can't score 30 points.

    If we can secure a LT via free agency I wouldn't mind giving up a 3rd (or two 4ths) to move up a few spots to select Jordan, Moore, or Werner. Or even if its just to secure Eric Fisher.
     
  13. Bolts4lyfe

    Bolts4lyfe BoltTalker

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    The Buffalo News says the Bills will "almost certainly" draft a quarterback in the first or second round.
    After Tarvaris Jackson was re-signed on Friday, coach Doug Marrone said T-Jack and Ryan Fitzpatrick would compete for the starting job. Fitzpatrick and Jackson aren't long-term answers, however, and may not even be short-term ones, either. Ryan Nassib, Tyler Wilson, and Mike Glennon are just a few names that could be considered by Buffalo on the draft's first and second day.
     
  14. matilack

    matilack #therealagent47

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    Lets hope the 1st, but expect it to be Ryan Nassib in the 2nd.
     
  15. Lance19

    Lance19 BoltTalker

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    As I've said before, I don't like pretending I'm a player finance cap specialist
    (or GM, or scout, for that matter) but I do think that the 'new' rookie allocation
    system of 2011 changed the equation significantly: Under previous systems,
    I think it was easier for 'small market' fans to argue that their teams should
    hoard draft pics. But under the 'new' CBA, it's simply easier
    (for a team that doesn't have Jerry Jones' wallet) to sign a premium rookie for less.

    In lessr words, I'm much more open to the Chargers trading up (in general)
    than I would've been 2 years ago.
     
  16. Bolts4lyfe

    Bolts4lyfe BoltTalker

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    Say what you will about Mayock, Sure he is a paid analyst that sells whats hot right now, but when he does give his opinion its pretty spot on

    Draft czar Mike Mayock does not see a real difference between picks No. 5 and 25 in terms of projected available talent.
    "I don't really see the immediate difference-makers in the top 10," Mayock said. "If you're a playoff team this year, you have to be laughing." Because of the plateau of talent, there's a chance positions that usually are selected later in the first-round, namely guard, could see a push earlier in the draft.
     
  17. matilack

    matilack #therealagent47

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    I think there is a huge drop off at pass rushers after the top 3 (Moore, Jordan, Werner). Mingo and Ansah are pick and pray players, you pick them, and you immediately get buyers guilt wondering if you just drafted football players or guys who's most impressive trait is how they look getting off the bus.

    Also at OT after the top 3 (Fisher, Joeckel, Johnson) I don't see another 1st round pick at all.

    And at CB, after Milliner its questionable weather another one deserves to go in the 1st round.

    I see no 1st round worthy QBs or RBs.
     
  18. Bolts4lyfe

    Bolts4lyfe BoltTalker

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    The good thing about the Talent being there but with no real stand out type players like players is if push comes to shove and there is no one that we like at 11 (which would be highly unlikely) is the fact that we could take Lane Johnson at 11 without it truly being considered a reach, Warmack being considered one of the top players this year could go in the top 5, it appears this draft is filled with diamonds in the rough, many of them dominating while still learning their position, lets hope who ever the Chargers draft in every round only has an arrow pointing up.
     
  19. Moses

    Moses Yeah Buddy!

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    Unlikely as this scenario is, I'd happily take Chance Warmack at 11, then try to address OT in the second round, or via free agency.
     
  20. matilack

    matilack #therealagent47

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    Who would you take in the 2nd round? Kyle Long is not even remotely close to being an offensive tackle in the NFL, on either side. Watson is a RT, Fluker is a RT, Thomas is a glorified guard, Bakhtiari is a project, Williams is a huge reach at 49... We're talking about the 2nd most important position on the franchise here, and nobody after Lane Johnson is someone I feel comfortable with starting in 2013.

    Free agency starts more than a month prior to the draft, any left tackles worth having will be spoken for looooong before draft day.
     
  21. Moses

    Moses Yeah Buddy!

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    I agree with you on the 2nd round picks, but in this scenario the element of choice is gone. Literally all of the first round LTs are gone, so in this situation I guess there are only 3 options:
    1. Draft in later rounds and hope for a steal. Big risk.
    2. Keep Gaither. Big risk also.
    3. Try to get by with a budget free agent. Again big risk.

    Unfortunately, if all 3 guys we are talking about are gone by our spot. there isn't a whole lot you can do, so you've got to address another need, and Chance would be the best available player for us then.
     
  22. The LBC

    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    You're underrating Thomas to be honest. Does he have "elite" feet? No. Is that required to function in a power-zone scheme and succeed at the pro level? No, it's not. I agree, Fluker has no place in our lineup. But there are several guys who, while guard might be their better fit, certainly can be serviceable as a LT in the same fashion that Andrew Whitworth is for Cincinnati or Cordy Glenn has been for Buffalo; namely Thomas, David Quessenberry, and I have to admit that (though I know some guys will turn their nose up at him because he's from a school they didn't know existed) Terron Armstead is growing on me more and more every time I see him play (as he didn't look at all like he didn't belong facing progressively higher and higher competition at the Shrine and Senior Bowl games).
     
  23. SuperCharger92

    SuperCharger92 BoltTalker

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    If were going OG, Warmack will be gone. I don't see him getting past Tennessee to be honest. I'd rather trade out of the #11, get into the late teens - early twenties and select Jonathan Cooper and then get Dallas Thomas or Kyle Long, who I think could really blossom in the ZBS, rather than the one on one block system we had here.
     
  24. The LBC

    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    Like I said, it's going to take a ballsy GM to draft an OG in the Top 10 - Mike Reinfeldt ain't that. I really don't get this concern that Warmack "won't be there." Unless someone thinks he can play center or tackle, he'll be there and he very well could be there all the way until St. Louis selects at 16 (which is where guards have typically come off the board in the 1st round #16-17) if we pass on him.
     
  25. SuperCharger92

    SuperCharger92 BoltTalker

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    The Titans' interior OL is terrible. DeCastro was the best OG last year and he fell to #24, yes, that could happen with Warmack, but Warmack is way more NFL-ready than DeCastro was or is. Obviously drafting a OG in the top 10 is ballsy and unheard of, but Warmack is clearly a top-5 talent in this draft.

    I could also see the Titans trading out, and a team needy of OT trading in that #10 spot if Eric Fisher is still on the board and taking him. So again, puts us in a bad spot. But, we don't know what will happen on draft day, We've seen crazier things before.
     
  26. matilack

    matilack #therealagent47

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    Well the Saints may just enter the LT fray, sounds like they won't tag Bushrod.
     
  27. Bolts4lyfe

    Bolts4lyfe BoltTalker

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    No 1st round pick no worries.
     
  28. Bolts4lyfe

    Bolts4lyfe BoltTalker

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    NFL Media PR@InsideNFLMedia
    Daniel Jeremiah: The O-linemen were a strong group and Lane Johnson stole the show. I don't see him getting past 15th pick.
     
  29. Chico Andy

    Chico Andy BoltTalker

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    Warmack must be crazy good. I have not seen him play much, or maybe more accurately, have not focused on his play. However, I did watch DeCastro play a lot and I thought he was a complete stud! If Warmack is "Way more NFL-ready" then DeCastro, I would love to call him a Charger.
     
  30. Bolts4lyfe

    Bolts4lyfe BoltTalker

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    At this point I don't believe Fisher makes it out of the top 5. Obviously if he does fall to 11 he's my choice but if we were picking tomorrow I'm all in on Lane Johnson
     

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