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Playoff Odds...

Discussion in 'Chargers Fan Forum' started by Concudan, Aug 22, 2012.

  1. Concudan

    Concudan Caffeinated Commando

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    Thanks to our friends at Bovada for the odds. (@Bovadalv)
    Arizona Cardinals - 2012 Will they make the playoffs?

    Yes +350
    No -500
    Atlanta Falcons - 2012 Will they make the playoffs?
    Yes -150
    No +120
    Baltimore Ravens - 2012 Will they make the playoffs?

    Yes -175
    No +145
    Buffalo Bills - 2012 Will they make the playoffs?

    Yes +155
    No -190
    Carolina Panthers - 2012 Will they make the playoffs?
    Yes +300
    No -400
    Chicago Bears - 2012 Will they make the playoffs?
    Yes -130
    No EVEN
    Cincinnati Bengals - 2012 Will they make the playoffs?

    Yes +200
    No -260
    Cleveland Browns - 2012 Will they make the playoffs?

    Yes +1000
    No -2000
    Dallas Cowboys - 2012 Will they make the playoffs?
    Yes +130
    No -160
    Denver Broncos - 2012 Will they make the playoffs?
    Yes +110
    No -140
    Detroit Lions - 2012 Will they make the playoffs?

    Yes +110
    No -140
    Green Bay Packers - 2012 Will they make the playoffs?
    Yes -600
    No +400
    Houston Texans - 2012 Will they make the playoffs?
    Yes -600
    No +400
    Indianapolis Colts - 2012 Will they make the playoffs?

    Yes +750
    No -1500
    Jacksonville Jaguars - 2012 Will they make the playoffs?

    Yes +750
    No -1500
    Kansas City Chiefs - 2012 Will they make the playoffs?
    Yes +195
    No -250
    Miami Dolphins - 2012 Will they make the playoffs?
    Yes +350
    No -500
    Minnesota Vikings - 2012 Will they make the playoffs?
    Yes +800
    No -1600
    New England Patriots - 2012 Will they make the playoffs?
    Yes -900
    No +550
    New Orleans Saints - 2012 Will they make the playoffs?
    Yes -150
    No +120
    New York Giants - 2012 Will they make the playoffs?
    Yes +110
    No -140
    New York Jets - 2012 Will they make the playoffs?

    Yes +155
    No -190
    Oakland Raiders - 2012 Will they make the playoffs?
    Yes +300
    No -400
    Philadelphia Eagles - 2012 Will they make the playoffs?

    Yes -165
    No +135
    Pittsburgh Steelers - 2012 Will they make the playoffs?
    Yes -180
    No +150
    San Diego Chargers - 2012 Will they make the playoffs?
    Yes -130
    No EVEN
    San Francisco 49ers - 2012 Will they make the playoffs?
    Yes -230
    No +190
    Seattle Seahawks - 2012 Will they make the playoffs?
    Yes +300
    No -400
    St. Louis Rams - 2012 Will they make the playoffs?

    Yes +600
    No -1000
    Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 2012 Will they make the playoffs?

    Yes +500
    No -800
    Tennessee Titans - 2012 Will they make the playoffs?

    Yes +275
    No -350
    Washington Redskins - 2012 Will they make the playoffs?
    Yes +450
    No -650


    By Patrick Imig
     
  2. Concudan

    Concudan Caffeinated Commando

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    So...

    Denver Broncos - 2012 Will they make the playoffs?
    Yes +110
    No -140

    Kansas City Chiefs - 2012 Will they make the playoffs?
    Yes +195
    No -250

    Oakland Raiders - 2012 Will they make the playoffs?
    Yes +300
    No -400

    San Diego Chargers - 2012 Will they make the playoffs?
    Yes -130
    No EVEN

    Can Someone who is more knowledgable than I on betting tell me who is the odds on favorite from the AFCW?
     
  3. Skuzzlebutt

    Skuzzlebutt BoltTalker

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    According to these numbers, the Chargers are the most likely to make the playoffs of the AFC West teams. This probably means win the West, but technically just means make the playoffs.

    You would have to bet $130 on YES the Chargers will make the playoffs to win $100 if they make it. (Hence the -130)
    You could bet $100 on NO the Chargers will make the playoffs to win $100 if they don't make it. (EVEN)

    You would have to bet $400 to win $100 on the Raiders missing the playoffs. (-400)
    Denver you could bet $100 to win $110 on them making the playoffs. (+110)

    Jeeze, you guys are making me want to get back into sports gambling...
     
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  4. Lance19

    Lance19 BoltTalker

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    I'm no expert, but I think that these numbers actually say that DENVER is the most likely...
     
  5. SDRaiderH8er

    SDRaiderH8er Well-Known Member

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    so the lower number is better
     
  6. Concudan

    Concudan Caffeinated Commando

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    Denver is positive, the Chargers negative. Me? I'm confused.
     
  7. SDRaiderH8er

    SDRaiderH8er Well-Known Member

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    but then the Raiders have the highest positive number does that put them in a better position
     
  8. Ikeman83

    Ikeman83 Werter Pöbel

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    the team with the highest odds of making the post season has the lowest number. The Chargers, the only team with a negative number from the AFCW, have the highest odds.

    The team with the lowest number has the best chance of not making the playoffs. The Raiders at negative 400 have the lowest number.

    Here's the list sorted from highest to lowest odds of MAKING the playoffs.

    Cleveland Browns - 2012 Will they make the playoffs?
    Yes +1000
    No -2000

    Minnesota Vikings - 2012 Will they make the playoffs?
    Yes +800
    No -1600

    Indianapolis Colts - 2012 Will they make the playoffs?
    Yes +750
    No -1500

    Jacksonville Jaguars - 2012 Will they make the playoffs?
    Yes +750
    No -1500

    St. Louis Rams - 2012 Will they make the playoffs?
    Yes +600
    No -1000
    Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 2012 Will they make the playoffs?

    Yes +500
    No -800

    Washington Redskins - 2012 Will they make the playoffs?
    Yes +450
    No -650

    Miami Dolphins - 2012 Will they make the playoffs?
    Yes +350
    No -500

    Arizona Cardinals - 2012 Will they make the playoffs?
    Yes +350
    No -500

    Seattle Seahawks - 2012 Will they make the playoffs?
    Yes +300
    No -400

    Oakland Raiders - 2012 Will they make the playoffs?
    Yes +300
    No -400

    Carolina Panthers - 2012 Will they make the playoffs?
    Yes +300
    No -400

    Tennessee Titans - 2012 Will they make the playoffs?
    Yes +275
    No -350

    Cincinnati Bengals - 2012 Will they make the playoffs?
    Yes +200
    No -260

    Kansas City Chiefs - 2012 Will they make the playoffs?
    Yes +195
    No -250

    New York Jets - 2012 Will they make the playoffs?
    Yes +155
    No -190

    Buffalo Bills - 2012 Will they make the playoffs?
    Yes +155
    No -190

    Dallas Cowboys - 2012 Will they make the playoffs?
    Yes +130
    No -160

    Chicago Bears - 2012 Will they make the playoffs?
    Yes -130
    No EVEN

    New York Giants - 2012 Will they make the playoffs?
    Yes +110
    No -140

    Denver Broncos - 2012 Will they make the playoffs?
    Yes +110
    No -140

    Detroit Lions - 2012 Will they make the playoffs?
    Yes +110
    No -140

    San Diego Chargers - 2012 Will they make the playoffs?
    Yes -130
    No EVEN

    New Orleans Saints - 2012 Will they make the playoffs?
    Yes -150
    No +120

    Atlanta Falcons - 2012 Will they make the playoffs?
    Yes -150
    No +120

    Philadelphia Eagles - 2012 Will they make the playoffs?
    Yes -165
    No +135

    Baltimore Ravens - 2012 Will they make the playoffs?
    Yes -175
    No +145

    Pittsburgh Steelers - 2012 Will they make the playoffs?
    Yes -180
    No +150

    San Francisco 49ers - 2012 Will they make the playoffs?
    Yes -230
    No +190

    Green Bay Packers - 2012 Will they make the playoffs?
    Yes -600
    No +400
    Houston Texans - 2012 Will they make the playoffs?
    Yes -600
    No +400

    New England Patriots - 2012 Will they make the playoffs?
    Yes -900
    No +550
     
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  9. SDRaiderH8er

    SDRaiderH8er Well-Known Member

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  10. Lance19

    Lance19 BoltTalker

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    Well, I'll admit to being confused, because I've never seen this exact format before.

    It's a weird variation on betting "moneyline" which is usually fairly straightforward:
    Just as in (more common) 'pointspread' betting, in moneyline there's a favorite & underdog:
    This Saturday, for instance, the Texans travel to New Orleans. One early moneyline reads:
    Houston +140
    New Orleans -160 (just like in spread betting, the perceived stronger team has the minus)

    So, if you bet $100 on Houston, you can win $140 more
    But you have to risk $160 on the favored Saints to win just $100

    But this ("make the playoffs") format Bovada is using doesn't have traditional favorites and 'dogs.
    And then they complicate it by including the "won't make the playoffs" proposition.

    But what confounds me most, is that it appears to contradict Bovada's other odds:
    On Bovada's own site, the Broncos are (narrowly) favored to win the AFC West.
    On Bovada's site, the Broncos are only 7-1 to be AFC Champs, Chargers more of a longshot at 12-1.
    On Bovada's site, the Broncos are 16-1 to win it all, Chargers lagging well behind at 25-1.
    http://sports.bovada.lv/sports-betting/football-futures.jsp

    On all three other futures, the Broncos are a clear favorite over the Chargers...so...uh...weird...
     
  11. SDRaiderH8er

    SDRaiderH8er Well-Known Member

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    I wonder if a blonde runs the site
     
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  12. boltfanatik

    boltfanatik Toxic Minority Member

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    Strangest formula I've ever seen:confused:
     
  13. Skuzzlebutt

    Skuzzlebutt BoltTalker

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    You make a couple of excellent observations:

    First: If you are going to sports wager, SHOP AROUND. Ever wonder why they don't allow cell phones in a casino sports book? Because they don't want people posted all around town grabbing the best odds at each individual place. But online, you can check 5 places in 10 minutes to get the best odds.

    Second: Your analogy to a single game is very accurate. Consider the game the season and the result either being make the playoffs or miss the playoffs. So the +/- is exactly the same as an individual game. So like your example, New Orleans is more likely to win the game, so you have to wager more to win less. Well, this site thinks it is more likely they Chargers will make the playoffs, so you have to wager more to win less.

    Finally: The different bet types are fascinating. I'm sure the appartent difference lies in the wild card and how likely it is a team from the AFC West will win it. Also, they may think that if the Broncos are good enough to make it to the playoffs, they have a better chance of doing well because of Peyton. Just a guess, but very interesting points you make.
     
  14. Lance19

    Lance19 BoltTalker

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    I agree with everything you said.

    But I STILL find it hard to believe that they can essentially assert (simultaneously!)
    that the Broncos are much more likely to win the AFC West, the Conference, & Super Bowl than the Chargers,
    ...but less likely to reach the playoffs. :confused:



    p.s. And yes, I've walked to probably 16 or 18 casinos in a morning, to get the odds I sought on a futures wager
     
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  15. BoltWalt

    BoltWalt Well-Known Member

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    The one thing I have learned about sports betting is to never bet on the Bolts, I just can not be objective with them as part of the bet, and I could never bet against them.
     
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  16. Ride The Lightning

    Ride The Lightning Join the Dark Side, we have cookies.

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    Never tell me the odds.
     
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