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Possible Rivers Trade from a Titans Perspective

Discussion in 'Chargers Fan Forum' started by TitanJeff, Apr 21, 2015.

  1. TitanJeff

    TitanJeff BoltTalker

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    I am from goTitans.com and dropped by to gauge the thoughts of Chargers fans on the Rivers trade rumors which won't seem to go away.

    From a Titans fan perspective, most agree that Whiz would love to have Rivers. It automatically makes the Titans much better even though the Titans have a ton of needs. By the time the Titans could give Rivers any kind of decent supporting cast, it's likely 2017 and he's probably at the tail end of his career.

    The Titans really need to stockpile picks and rebuild. The overall talent level is just weak to average on both sides of the ball. But who knows what Whiz is thinking?

    Most Titans fans think the #2 for Rivers plus the #17 is fair. Maybe the Titans add one mid-rounder to the mix. Obviously, Chargers fans think the #2 for Rivers straight up is more realistic. I heard some guys on a sports radio show in San Diego say the Titans needed to give up #2, #33 and a first-rounder in 2016. I think fans would burn down LP Field if the Titans did that.

    Many here think the Titans hold the cards just because how Rivers feels about the move to LA. Rumors are he's said he wanted to play closer to his hometown in Alabama though I've yet to see an actual clip of that. If he truly doesn't want to be there, is this the right time to get something for him? Or do any of you suspect this is all orchestrated by his agent to get him a long-term deal with the Chargers?
     
  2. Chaincrusher

    Chaincrusher BoltTalker

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    Although I am new here myself, let me say thanks for dropping by and providing us with the perspective of Titans fans.

    From the perspective of Chargers fans, I do not think there is a consensus concerning the possible Rivers to the Titans trade.

    From my point of view, on this forum I have previously stated that the trade with the Titans needed to be #2, #33 and the 2016 first round pick for Rivers. (I was not the caller by the way.) My thinking in support of such value is that the last time there was a picks for player trade involving a starting QB, Cutler's price was two first round picks and change. Cutler was never viewed as anything other than slightly above average on a good day. Rivers is elite and therefore warrants much more in return than what the Broncos got for Cutler.

    I really do not think that objective observers even bother to dispute that that is Rivers' value. I think these suggested trade possibilities in the media that hugely undervalue Rivers, like Rivers for the #2 pick or the even more ridiculous Rivers and the #17 pick for the #2 pick, are being made on the basis of the belief that the Chargers have to do something with Rivers. Otherwise why would the Chargers give up a proven star QB for the chance to draft another one that may or may not pan out?

    In my view, those that think that the Chargers must trade Rivers are just wrong. Rivers is under contract with the Chargers for 2015 and can be franchised twice after that. In negotiations, sometimes you need to call a bluff. With the chance to cement a Hall of Fame career, is Rivers really going to walk away from the game he loves prematurely and from $20M+ per year and likely from Hall of Fame immortality because he would rather play in San Diego than Los Angeles? Of course he isn't. That's just common sense.

    So there is no need for the Chargers to panic and no need for the Chargers to take anything less than Rivers' full value when it comes to the possibility of trading him. I would much rather see the team keep Rivers for three years and then receive the third round compensatory pick if Rivers leaves in year 4 (2018).

    I appreciate that such a full value trade as I have suggested may not make sense for the Titans, especially if their talent needs are as you have described in your post. Why trade for a QB with 5 good years left if you think it will take that long or almost that long to rebuild while hamstringing yourself at the same time by having to surrender extra draft picks as part of the deal? To me, it would make more sense for a team in "win now" mode to make a push for Rivers, who, with good OL protection, probably represents an upgrade for almost every team in the league.

    The Titans could choose to roll with Mettenberger, who I think has some potential, or draft Mariota with the #2 pick. There is more risk associated with those courses of action because Rivers has been proven to be the real deal and those other young players may or may not pan out, but the Titans would be able to keep their other two picks.
     
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  3. matilack

    matilack Take A Knee McCree!!!

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    I'm gonna tell you why #2 for Rivers and #17 is completely ridiculous...

    1) Rivers is a franchise caliber QB, a known commodity, Mariota isn't. In fact if Mariota was a sure thing we wouldn't be having this conversation at all because the Titans would just draft him.

    2) Rivers may be 33, but due to the fact that he didn't play right away he's only got 9 years as a starter under his belt. Compare that to other pocket passers...Manning (18), Tom Brady (15), Drew Brees (14) and there is an argument to be made that he still has about 4-5 good years left.

    3) Rivers immediately makes the Titans playoff contenders. Consider that the Chargers had no O-line, no running game after Mathews and Woody went down, and a mediocre at best defense in a division with two other .500+ teams...and we still won 9 games. Can Mariota copy that? Not a chance. We're likely irrelevant for at least 2015 if not 2016 if we make this trade, because Mariota needs work.

    4) We'd be bailing early. We still have a year to talk Rivers into signing on long term, and if he doesn't we can still franchise tag him, and if teams bid on him and we don't match the offers we could end up getting 2 first round picks out of this disaster anyway!

    5) What options do the Titans have? Rivers, Mariota (who doesn't fit Wiz's scheme), or Mettenberger who was 0-6 last year. Let's be honest the Titans need Rivers just as much as we do. This is the type of move that puts jobs on the line.

    Basically anything less than 2 and 33 for Rivers means the Chargers got hosed big time. Anyone who thinks the sum value of a franchise QB is 15 draft slots is an idiot, and you should stop listening to those kind of people.
     
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  4. TitanJeff

    TitanJeff BoltTalker

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    A few comments...

    Rivers is a known commodity. I just don't think he's as elite as many here believe. If I was to rank all the NFL QBs, he falls around #7 or #8 and the likelihood of his production continuing on the same level lessens considerably, IMO, as he gets older behind a Titans OL which was beyond horrible last season.

    Add to that the weapons he has to throw to in Tennessee. Kendall Wright flashes potential and Denard Walker had a nice season but Justin Hunter has been a tease and I'm not looking for Bobby Douglas to set the world on fire. There wasn't really any running game worth mentioning at all last season. Of course, get a good QB in there and things might improve for the run.

    I don't think Rivers makes this Titans team any better than 8-8. Yeah, a break or two means possibly sniffing the playoffs in December but I don't see it happening regardless of who is the QB.

    Reviews are mixed on Mettenberger. He had his moments but didn't do enough last year to win the job outright entering this season because he desperately needed to stay healthy, show more, and get some experience. Despite the questions about Mett, I don't think Mariota or Winston necessarily upgrade the position that much. Many Titans fan will argue with me and only time will tell.

    As for the value of Rivers, #2 and #33 isn't worth it, IMO. Maybe I'm undervaluing Rivers but that's mainly because the Titans need so much talent upgraded across the board.

    Do you guys honestly think Rivers wouldn't retire before allowing himself to be franchised?
     
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  5. The LBC

    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    But see, you hit on it yourself - he's a "known commodity" which is more than any rookie you could draft this year or any upcoming year or even Mettenberger is right now. When the known commodity is in the 80th percentile among starters in the league (and is already known to be a successful fit in the scheme your team runs) that screams that you're paying a premium.

    Now, I preface this by saying that I think the Sports Talk value of #2, #33, and a future 1st is ridiculous if only because of Rivers' age (Jay Cutler fetched a return not far off from that - having shown to have more flaws and be a lesser player to that point - but he was also still in his later-mid-20's at the time). #2 alone should be - and I'm being dead serious here - something the Titans (at least current ownership - who last I knew were looking at a sale, management, and coaching) should be jumping at and the Chargers should, under normal circumstances, be balking at - unless the Titans have plans to take Mariota (or Winston) at #2, that is.

    Quarterback is the single most important position in the league, by a landslide. 5 years of Leonard Williams isn't going to net you the wins that 4 years of Philip Rivers will unless he's JJ Watt - and he's not. And let's be realistic, if Mettenberger doesn't become the guy Tennessee can hang their hat on, they could very realistically spend his entire rookie contract searching for "the guy" at the QB position and never find him - which could very directly affect Williams' willingness to re-sign if he doesn't think the team gives him the best chance to win and compete in his prime. I realize Tommy Smith has been shooting down rumors of a sale (at least in response to Peyton buying a majority share of the team), but what else is he going to say in those instances? That said, a franchise QB in place (even an aging one) makes a team more valuable in such a situation. But even if ownership stays pat, if they fail to bring in Rivers, Winston, or Mariota this year, stand on Mettenberger and he fails to meet expectations - 2016 likely brings a new HC, potentially some shakeups in the front office, and almost assuredly a new QB.

    From what I've read and interpreted, it seems like a lot of Titans fans (beyond just not wanting to give up a lot of draft picks - something fans tend to historically overvalue compared to actual front offices... and this is coming from someone who fully espouses the "build through the draft" mantra) are interpreting having a massive piece of leverage because they perceive Nashville as the "only location Rivers wants to go to," thus if he were to hit FA they can just wait till that happens and he'll come to them. That 2-year "ransom/hostage" situation isn't at all unrealistic, particularly when you consider that the likelihood of any team physically being in Los Angeles before 2017 or 2018 (i.e. when a stadium is actually completed) that isn't the Rams is really, really low. So technically, while the prospect of a move might certainly loom, Rivers and his family wouldn't be actually in a position to have to relocate prior to that (assuming a move even goes through).
     
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  6. MasterOfPuppets

    MasterOfPuppets Charger fan since 1979

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    I'd rather have Rivers in 2015 and if the worse happens franchise him and trade him in 2016, If he agrees to an extension with the new team his trade value would be almost as good as it is now.

    If the Chargers gave up Rivers and the 17th pick for Mariota the fans would burn down the Q (which wouldn't be that bad)
     
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  7. The LBC

    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    Let's be real. The Q is such a dump, it wouldn't even burn right.
     
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  8. MasterOfPuppets

    MasterOfPuppets Charger fan since 1979

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    hence my comment in parenthesis
     
  9. matilack

    matilack Take A Knee McCree!!!

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    I agree, Rivers doesn't qualify for my definition of elite either. But he is easily a top 7 or 8 QB, and those guys don't grow on trees. Look at Robert Griffen, Sam Bradford, Marc Sanchez, Matt Stafford, Cam Newton, Vince Young, Alex Smith, Jamarcus Russell....all top 5 draft picks, are any of them top 10 QBs? Not close IMO, and a couple aren't even in the league anymore.

    In reality, drafting a QB even in the top 10 has been about a 50/50 prospect at best. Point is they are REALLY hard to find, which makes me extremely reluctant to just hand him over for Marcus Mariota, when his future is basically a coin flip.

    Think about it from a front office (GM/HC) point of view, and consider that the average regime only lasts 4 years or so (at best)....Who is least likely to get everyone fired? Rivers, Mariota, or Mettenburger? If y'all can get something better than Philip Rivers for your #2 and #33 picks, you should absolutely do it.

    I'd be surprised if Rivers turned down $20+ million guaranteed to retire, especially when other teams can negotiate with franchise tagged players.
     
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  10. matilack

    matilack Take A Knee McCree!!!

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    Dead on 100% correct in every way.

    My only question is how long d0 the fans think they can actually wait? Even the Titans fan says his team sucks, and they just went 2-14, so how long can the front office hold on before getting fired?

    Plus Rivers will never hit FA, we'll slap the exclusive franchise tag on him first, which means the Titans (who will likely have a top 10 pick next year) will be bidding against every team that needs a QB. If they won the bid, and we didn't match (unlikely in itself due to our cap situation), they'd be giving up two first round picks anyway.

    I'm just saying, if I were in GM seat for the Titans I'd deliver 2 and 33 gift wrapped, and I may even throw in a conditional day 3 pick as a sweetner.
     
    Last edited: Apr 21, 2015
  11. TitanJeff

    TitanJeff BoltTalker

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    If I'm Whiz, I beg to make this happen. I really think he wants him but that's just a gut feeling.

    The known vs. unknown commodity is valid but isn't that the case every draft at the QB position? Taking Rivers was a risk and, sometimes, it works out. Mariota (or Mett) might end up putting up solid numbers and hitting his stride about the time the Titans, hopefully, have other weapons and we can get a few years of being a solid franchise again. With Rivers, he's likely to decline as most QBs in this league have once he hits 35.

    If the Titans were a QB away, and it was 2011, I think #2, #33 and a first in '16 is a no-brainer. But River's value is less just because the Titans are not where they need to be to make the most of him. As stupid as it sounds to say, a solid QB right now isn't the right move if it costs the Titan #2, #33 and a high pick in '16.

    Have any of you heard Rivers actually say he wants to go to Tennessee?
     
    Last edited: Apr 22, 2015
  12. MasterOfPuppets

    MasterOfPuppets Charger fan since 1979

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    @TitanJeff, sorry we couldn't make a deal, you keep your picks and we'll keep Rivers
     
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  13. Pointyearedog

    Pointyearedog I only put idiots on ignore...

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    Put me down as one who thinks that nothing is going to happen.

     
  14. TitanJeff

    TitanJeff BoltTalker

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    Wait for Whiz to produce? It's hard to know. He has four more years on his contract so, unless he does something illegal, he's here for two more seasons at the minimum.

    I don't see anyone giving up that much up for Rivers.

    The Titans need a face for the franchise. Rivers would be that. But so would Mariota.
     
    Last edited: Apr 22, 2015
  15. House of Hayne

    House of Hayne Chargers Smash

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    All talk won't happen
    He is not that dumb
     
  16. House of Hayne

    House of Hayne Chargers Smash

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    LT just said he thinks rivers won't be with the team next year
    He said the rivers is upset with the organization

    I watched it on facebook
     
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  17. matilack

    matilack Take A Knee McCree!!!

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    If he's got 2 more seasons minimum, and you're roster isn't "a QB away", and you don't have a QB to begin with...when is he going to start winning? I think Wiz will be pushing hard for this. Most coaches only get 1 shot at a QB, and it's usually through the draft, and that usually means developmental time.

    I do. All it takes is a GM and HC with their heads on the chopping block, who are willing to risk the franchise future (like the Bills did with Sammy Watkins) for a Pro Bowl caliber QB who can win now. I can see a team like the Texans selling the kitchen sink, as they ARE just a QB away.
     
  18. Fossil

    Fossil BoltTalker

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    Hi, welcome to the board. All of us forum regulars have wildly different viewpoints, but thanks for bringing us together in saying "no thanks" for Philip Rivers + our #17 pick for your #2 pick.
     
  19. The LBC

    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    See, that's where we'll have to agree to disagree unless you qualify your statement as "River's value to the Titans is less..." His value is his value period. This isn't a case of a guy on the free agent market where "he's worth whatever the highest bidder will pay for him;" he's under contract and the device is in place to keep him (or at least his rights) in that state for the next several years.

    And even if you're qualifying that statement, it's really "his value to the Titans fans and perhaps to the Titans ability to hoist a Lombardi is less," but his value to organization certainly isn't - definitely not monetarily, and if you don't think having a proven vet franchise QB who has won playoff games (and historically OWNED the current top team in your division) adds value in the ability to attract the kind of free agents that will give you a bump in terms of being competition, I don't know what to tell you.

    Moreover, going from bottom 1/3 QB production to top 1/3 makes a very significant difference. Take for example the 2008 Cardinals; A team that had the 28th-ranked defense, the definition of a mediocre-at-best OL, and yes... Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin, but as a result that passing game that was put in place when the team acquired Kurt Warner... coincidentally under the same head coach as the Titans currently have. That team not only made the Super Bowl, but some would argue were only a few plays away from winning the damn thing.

    That same "power" team in your division is a prime example of how an upper flight QB can take a team that is rathe dearthy in terms of talent and turn them overnight into a playoff team (nee one game removed from the Super Bowl even). That was a team with a average-at-best OL, a lower 1/3 of the league rushing game, and a middling defense with no pass-rush (at least last year once Mathis went out).
     
  20. The LBC

    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    No. There's just been a ton of people trying to connect dots because Nashville is roughly 45 minutes from Decatur, Alabama where Rivers' in-laws live and where he grew up.

    A lot of people are putting a lot of stock in Kevin Acee - and his presumed "close relationship" with Rivers - and just glossing over the fact that the majority of Acee's articles and quotables since he was replaced as main Chargers Beat Writer at the U-T have been Chicken Little tinged and, in a word, haughty in an "I'll be thumping my chest about this later" sort of way.
     
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  21. Chaincrusher

    Chaincrusher BoltTalker

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    We will have to disagree about where Rivers ranks. If protected properly, the only QB I would take over Rivers is Rodgers. Unfortunately, Rivers has not been reasonably well protected since 2009.

    Last year's OL was horrible. King Dunlap was the team's best OL player. He was solid, but not spectacular at LT. D.J. Fluker experienced a second year slump at RT, repeatedly struggling against speed rushers. The team ran through 5 Cs last year due to injury and none, after Hardwick, the original starter, were any good. But the OG play was in a class of putridness all by itself.

    That the OL only finished 16th in sacks allowed is misleading in that the Chargers called very few slow developing pass plays. Even on quick passes, Rivers still experienced a lot of pressure, especially right up the middle. And due to the OL, the team averaged a paltry 3.4 yards per carry, good for 31st. I can't imagine the Titans OL being worse than the Chargers OL.

    This is a big part of why Rivers is almost always undervalued. For years, he has had to deal with regular pressure while other QBs like Manning and Brady have had time to order a pizza in the pocket on most pass plays.

    I would consider the probability that Rivers would retire in lieu of being franchised as virtually nil. Rivers loves to play the game and he has a big time legacy at stake. It is possible that he would not get into the Hall of Fame if he retired after the 2015 season. At that point, he will likely have 280+ TDs and over 40,000 yards passing, which likely would have had him in the Hall of Fame if he had played 20 years ago.

    But with today's pass heavy league, the numbers that it will take a QB to get in to the Hall of Fame will keep increasing. If Rivers starts at QB for 6 more years (finishing his career shortly after his 39th birthday), he is likely to have over 60,000 yards and over 400 TDs passing. At that point, any vote against him for the Hall of Fame would be pure stupidity.

    Playing 5+ more years is Rivers' ticket to the Hall of Fame. I suspect that he is well aware of what is at stake.
     
  22. matilack

    matilack Take A Knee McCree!!!

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    I'm not sure I agree with Rivers being the 2nd best QB in the league...but I agree with everything else you said.

    Our O-line was HORRID last year, and we had no running game to boot, and still Rivers put up 31TDs and 4200 yards, and I pretty much guarantee Mariota won't be capable of duplicating a feet like that for at least a couple years (if ever).

    It's going to take a ransom on top of Rivers forcing his way out for the brass to give up on him now, a year or two earlier than they even have too. That's a guy who's number is going in the rafters some day.
     
  23. MadMike

    MadMike Well-Known Member

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    That place is a ******* dutch oven. At 80 degrees outside, that friggin grey concrete just soaks up all of the heat and bakes everyone inside. Pretty sure its fire proof.
     
  24. The LBC

    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    Also - because I'm cool like that (and I also knew her when we were both in college... albeit different colleges) - I had a brief exchange of texts with Annie Heilbrunn tonight after she hit me up to let me know she'd listened to the podcast I guest-spotted on. Her words: "Gut reaction? He's not getting traded. That could change tomorrow or the next day, but as of right now, I don't see it happening."

    Just from experience in terms of who is "tighter" with the players, I'll trust Annie over Acee.
     
  25. TitanJeff

    TitanJeff BoltTalker

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    That's what I meant. With the rest of the team where it is, the impact of Rivers is much less than it otherwise would be.

    This is about the future. I don't think anyone thinks Rivers makes the Titans a playoff contender with the current players on the roster. That's the point. About the time the Titans can get those other cogs, Rivers is done.

    I'm of the opinion the Chargers would be insane to trade him for any reason. He's locked up for, at least, two more seasons. After that, he's likely on a decline anyway.
     
  26. charger1993

    charger1993 bad motherfucker

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    I would, if u really look at it, rivers has made wrs in past years who arent above average play like they elite wrs, I mean manning is accurate but his arm is going and going fast he can't sling the ball like he use to, be benefits from his speedy route runners and demaryius burning everyone and being a giant. Brady oline allows him to throw to anyone cause a sorry wr even has time to get open. Look at the Seattle game from rivers for example, he would be getting sacked and almost thrown to the ground instantly and he was throwing dots for 1st downs and tds. Not many qbs who aren't extremely mobile would be able todo what he's done with our terrible o line. It's impressive, if rivers was in New England his numbers would be a lot better than they are
     
  27. TitanJeff

    TitanJeff BoltTalker

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    He won't get much more protection in Tennessee. According to PFF, the Titans pass blocking was worse than the Chargers (but just by one spot).

    And our WRs got hit in the hands plenty of times last year by Locker, CBJ and Mett and just dropped it.

    You guys want back CBJ in a deal? ;)
     
  28. Pointyearedog

    Pointyearedog I only put idiots on ignore...

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    ^^^The women would love the deal, that's about it...
     
  29. Boltjolt

    Boltjolt Well-Known Member

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    Rivers isnt going anywhere first of all so that should be the end of the discussion.

    After that if Tom Telesco trades him and gives up our #17 , he should be fired. Rivers is a multiple pro bowl QB and #2 pick or not, it is for a rookie QB who has not take a snap in the NFL. I think we should get a pick in return and if thats the way the Titans feel about it(them getting our pick) then even if there is any interest (which im sure there isnt), that there should end the discussion.
     
  30. Boltjolt

    Boltjolt Well-Known Member

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    LOL, if Carson Palmer can bring a first and a conditional second, you better believe Rivers will bring two firsts and maybe more. He was 31 when he got traded but he isnt near as good as Rivers who turned 33 in Dec.
     

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