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Q: Will teams be more conservative in this year's NFL draft?

Discussion in 'Chargers Fan Forum' started by Blue Bolt, Apr 12, 2011.

  1. Blue Bolt

    Blue Bolt Persona Non Grata

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    Assuming that no new labor deal is reached before the draft (not very likely), will teams be less apt to take risks this draft?... i.e. not trading up or "reaching" for players?

    This could be the first year where the draft occurs before free agency, so instead of filling in the last remaining holes with the draft, teams will be just starting to fill their rosters. They don't know if their tendered players will still be with the team or not, and they don't know which of their UFA players they can retain. NFL rosters will be in a greater state of flux than any other time of the draft.

    How do you think this will influence AJ Smith's draft philosophy? Will he refrain from trading up this year and for a change keep all those "extra" picks? What are people's thoughts?..... #imjustasking ;)
     
  2. DenverBolt67

    DenverBolt67 BoltTalker

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    I know it is liars month, so take it for what it is worth, but AJ was just on XX radio and said at this point he think staying put is the best option, but is open to receive calls.

    He also said he is taking the approach that all our FA's are gone, so if (Very big IF) that is true, I don't see him giving up many picks with the amount of gaping holes we have.
     
  3. Blue Bolt

    Blue Bolt Persona Non Grata

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    It may be liars month, but a prudent GM would draft assuming nothing about what was to come later. There's no way to know how the free agency business will shake out, so the smart thing would be to plug as many holes through the draft as you can..... IMHO.
     
  4. DenverBolt67

    DenverBolt67 BoltTalker

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    I agree, and to be honest, if we could trade back to the late 1st and pick up another 2nd, I would jump all over it. We have way too many holes, and even if we think some of the guys will get resigned, we stilll have a ton of holes and a total lack of depth across the whole team. We need as many picks as we can get.

    But with that said, I have come to expect AJ to do the exact opposite of what I think is the right thing to do. So time will tell
     
  5. The LBC

    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    I think this is going to be the most polarized draft we've seen in a while - and will probably see for some time to come. Some teams (hopefully we number among them) with large chunks of their roster in some form of free agent capacity, and thus the potential for high volume of turnover, will likely play it more conservative. That said, the BPA philosophy is somewhat dated as 99% of GM's that draft the Best Player Available still consider "need" in there somewhere (it's just a matter of how immediate that need is that's more subjective and varying).

    On the other hand, I think we're going to see a lot of teams with needs a premium positions making reaches that they might not otherwise make in a normal year because of the fact that free agency is such an unknown capacity (when will it be? what kind of qualifiers for UFA are we looking at? will prior-issued tags and tenders be honored?). No GM wants to stake their job on having to convince his boss to shell out a larger sum on the open market in a bidding war, due to the fact that a player that might well have satisfied that need was passed on in the draft. This is likely to most drastically affect the QB, LT, CB, and Pass-Rushing End (could also be read as OLB for the 3-4) positions. I won't be surprised in the least to see 5 quarterbacks taken in the first 35-40 picks, and I'm anticipating 4 to go in the 1st round minimum (probably 3 inside the Top 15).
     
  6. DenverBolt67

    DenverBolt67 BoltTalker

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    Wow, I don't even see more than 2-3 that are 1st round worthy, let alone top 15. But I am far from a draft expert, so it could be interesting
     
  7. The LBC

    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    It's not a matter of them being 1st round "worthy" and to be honest "worthy" is hugely subjective. Teams have never shown to shy away from investing in project quarterbacks with upside. Many fans - and analysts - didn't grade Tebow as a 1st round prospect last year and yet he still would have gone in the 1st whether McDaniels traded up to get him or not (Minnesota was prime to select him and I'd heard tell there was at least one other team eying him as well). That's why Locker and Newton will both go well before most fans would grade them at (I have Jake's floor at #10 overall and Washington; as he's got Shanahan-type QB written all over him); absolute worst case scenario is Jacksonville at 16.

    Mallett is likely penciled to either Minnesota or Miami - neither of which teams have shown a hindrance from bringing in players with character questions - and both of which would value Mallett highly for different reasons (Minny because he's the most pro ready in this draft class; and Miami because he's got a cannon and their new ownership has been vocal about wanting a vertical-passing offense).

    Some team will trade into the bottom of the 1st to take either Ponder or Dalton (my bet is Dalton) and it wouldn't surprise me to see it happen with both, though I'm figuring that one of them is probably going to go either naturally or via trade-up in the first couple picks of the 2nd. Going even further, I get the feeling that Jacksonville is targeting Dalton with their 2nd, but I don't believe he falls and their GM isn't one to trade up, so if Andy's gone I wouldn't be surprised in the least to see them take Kaepernick at #49. Which could make 6 QB's in the Top 50 picks.

    Need dictates everything and quarterback is just THAT IMPORTANT of a position. In this day and age you don't turn the corner and won't stand a chance at consistent winning records and playoff viability without a franchise signal-caller. The premium positions typically have anywhere from a 7-10 pick premium (i.e. space over which it is seen as "acceptable" to reach because of the premium placed on the position), in this day and age with the importance of the QB position, quarterbacks get almost a 10-15 pick premium (that's nearly half a round!) and that could even escalate if a run starts.
     
  8. DenverBolt67

    DenverBolt67 BoltTalker

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    The more QB's that go off the board, the more likely a top defensive player will fall to us and take away the need for AJ to trade up.
     
  9. Blue Bolt

    Blue Bolt Persona Non Grata

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    That's my hope as well, but lately I've heard of more teams wanting to trade out of the top spots. I'm not sure what to read into that.
     

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