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Real Time Graph Calculating the Chargers Playoff Chances

Discussion in 'Chargers Fan Forum' started by robdog, Jan 2, 2014.

  1. robdog

    robdog Code Monkey Staff Member Administrator

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  2. Concudan

    Concudan Caffeinated Commando

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    I would have loved it if Pitt's chances had skyrocketed at the FG... Then plummeted to earth...
     
  3. HollywoodLeo

    HollywoodLeo Well-Known Member

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    I would have figured that at the point of the FG attempt Pitt's should have been above ours.
     
  4. Joy Division

    Joy Division Slightly-known Member

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    In this measurement of probability, the graph is measuring at real time. At the point just before the field goal miss by Succop, the game was still tied, therefore Chargers still had better probability of making playoffs. At the point immediately after the miss, the probability should have stayed the same (it likely did, there were only 4 seconds left in the game). When the coin flip gave the ball to the Chargers, possessing the ball gave higher probability to Chargers scoring as well, they did and after going up by 3 points, the probability of making playoffs also went up. If Weddle doesn't make the call and convert, the graph would have looked very sad for the powder blue line and the black line would have seen a slight improvement but nothing significant since the Chiefs still had to score a field goal to tie (still giving probability advantage to Chargers) or touchdown for win which of course would have eliminated SD and sent the black line surging.
     
  5. HollywoodLeo

    HollywoodLeo Well-Known Member

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    But considering the odds of making a 41 yard FG I would have figured real-time odds of the Chiefs winning the game before the kick (and therefore Pitt's playoff chances) would have been high...until he went against the odds and missed the FG.

    I'm no statistician though.
     
  6. Joy Division

    Joy Division Slightly-known Member

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    I'm no statistician either, but I believe the "real-time" aspect of the graph is the reason for the probability being higher for the Chargers advancing at the moment before the kick. It only sees the game tied. It's not guessing into the future. Succop was hitting 75% between 40-49 yds on the year, but it doesn't mean anything when the kick hasn't been attempted yet. The closer the ball got to missing the inside portions of the upright while traveling through the air could be another graph entirely.
    It would be an interesting graphic to see the trajectory of the ball and the percentages fluctuation every few yards...
     
  7. HollywoodLeo

    HollywoodLeo Well-Known Member

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    I don't know. I'd think your kicker lining up for a 41 yard field goal with practically no time left on the clock would shift the statistical probability of winning in your favor, with it shifting back the other way only after the miss.

    But, I suppose if the graph simply blindly looks at "tie score with 4 seconds left" and doesn't take into account the game situation it makes sense.
     
  8. Lance19

    Lance19 BoltTalker

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    You know, I've often wondered about those probabilities…the NFL (or someone) must
    have crunched the numbers, re. what percentage of field goals are made at each distance…

    I mean, are 44 yard field goals made 51% of the time, but 45 yard field goals only 47% of the time?
    My unsubstantiated sense is that this accuracy is incrementally but steadily creeping up. Seems like 20 years ago
    a 41 yard field goal might've been converted less than half the time, with the opposite being true today.

    Obviously the quality of a team's kicker and the conditions etc., should all affect the HCs decision
    whether or not to try a kick, but I'd love to see a table of success rates. Anyone?

    p.s. I'm old enough to remember when they moved the goalposts back from the goal line…
    most today think it was safety (yes, guys did get hurt running into the poles often) but it was more
    about discouraging the glut of field goals that were being attempted in '72 & '73.
    That's the same reason for the other team getting the ball at the spot of a missed kick…
    instead of the 20 as it had been…to make going for 3 a much less attractive option. Both rule changes worked.
    But now as kickers get more accurate, a handful of folks are actually proposing narrowing the posts.
    :rolleyes:
     
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