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Rivers' numbers will be key, but don't sweat Chambers' absence

Discussion in 'American Football' started by BFISA, Oct 19, 2008.

  1. BFISA

    BFISA Well-Known Member

    Nov 16, 2005

    ACCUSCORE ANALYSIS: Chargers at Raiders :icon_shrug: :icon_huh: :lol:
    By Stephen Oh, Special to the Union-Tribune

    Friday, October 17, 2008

    AccuScore runs 10,000 computer simulations of NFL games, one play at a time, to project likely outcomes. Here is its assessment of Sunday's Chargers game against the Bills.

    Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers had his best game of the season last week against the Patriots. Before their bye week, the Bills' defense was torched by Arizona's prolific passing game for 41 points. Despite that performance, Buffalo does have a solid defense, and in simulations Rivers has a good but not a great game.

    With running back LaDainian Tomlinson dealing with injuries, it's important for the Chargers that Rivers plays well. Rivers does much better in simulations when the Chargers win than he does when they lose.

    Philip Rivers...Cmp-Att....Yds....TD....Int.


    In SD wins........19-30.......233....1.7....0.6

    In SD losses.....16-31.......188....1.0....1.1


    Chris Chambers has played well since joining the Chargers last season. While he is leading the team in receiving touchdowns this season, the Chargers should be OK if he has to miss another game this week. The average score and Chargers' winning percentage in simulations are virtually the same if Chambers is active or inactive.

    Chris Chambers......Win%....Score

    Chambers active......62.4%....SD 22.9-18.0

    Chambers inactive...60.8%....SD 22.1-18.1

    In limited action, Malcom Floyd has been one of the most efficient receivers over the past three seasons with four touchdowns in just 25 receptions (16 percent) and an average of 15.3 yards per reception. That TD percentage is only slightly behind Chambers' impressive 20 percent rate with the Chargers. The Chargers are better with Chambers, but if he's not healthy they should be able to offset much of his production by giving more opportunities to Floyd and No. 2 receiver Vincent Jackson.


    The Chargers' run defense bounced back from a subpar performance at Miami to contain the Patriots, holding them to an average of 4.1 yards per carry.

    The Bills' Marshawn Lynch has averaged more than 4.0 yards per carry only once this season (Week 1 vs Seattle). In simulations, Lynch averages 82 yards per game and 4.0 yards a carry. When Lynch runs for more than that average, the Bills win nearly 55 percent of simulated games, but when he's held under his average the Bills win just 23 percent of the time.

    Marshawn Lynch......Chance....Bills win%

    82+ rushing yards.....46.6%......54.5%

    Under 82 yards..........53.4%.....23.3%
  2. Buck Melanoma

    Buck Melanoma Guest

    Another big opportunity for Floyd. :tup:
  3. BFISA

    BFISA Well-Known Member

    Nov 16, 2005
    You!! :yes: :tup:

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