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Scouting the Chiefs

Discussion in 'American Football' started by Johnny Lightning, Nov 25, 2009.

  1. Johnny Lightning

    Johnny Lightning Go Bolts

    Feb 7, 2006

    By Jay Posner
    Wednesday, November 25, 2009

    Chargers' next opponent
    Kansas City Chiefs (3-7)
    1:05 p.m. Sunday at Qualcomm Stadium

    The Chargers won't be the only hot team playing Sunday at Qualcomm. Check out the Chiefs — winners of two whole games in a row. OK, so the first one came against the Raiders, but last week Kansas City actually knocked off Pittsburgh, a team that clobbered the Chargers earlier this season.
    So, should the Chargers be concerned? After all, it was only a month ago today that they clobbered Kansas City 37-7 in a game that wasn't even that close.
    Well, the Chiefs definitely have been playing better since the Chargers game, almost winning at Jacksonville before beating the Raiders and Steelers. Their confidence certainly is at a season high. But it's hard to believe the Chiefs could be that much better. They still rank 30th in the league in total yards gained and allowed, and their rankings in several other major statistical categories are in the bottom quarter of the league.

    Chris Chambers, WR. Pretty obvious, right? After catching just nine passes in seven games for the Chargers, Chambers was claimed off waivers by the Chiefs, and suddenly he's turned into Jerry Rice. Or at least vintage Chris Chambers. In three games, he has 10 catches for a whopping 249 yards and two TDs, and don't you think he might want to prove something Sunday?

    Jamaal Charles, RB/KR. This week's version of Eddie Royal, capable of hurting the Chargers in multiple ways. A week ago Charles rushed for 103 yards against the Raiders, and last week he returned the opening kickoff 97 yards for a TD. He's averaging a healthy 4.9 yards per carry and 25.7 yards per kickoff return. He also has 23 receptions.

    Andy Studebaker, OLB. Making his first career start last week, the second-year player from Wheaton College produced the first two interceptions of his career, including one he returned 94 yards. The takeaways set up 10 Chiefs points.

    On a rainy day in Kansas City last month, the Chargers jumped out to a 20-0 halftime lead and cruised to a 37-7 victory. Philip Rivers passed for 268 yards and three TDs; Vincent Jackson caught five passes for 152 yards and a TD; Darren Sproles had a 58-yard TD reception and Jacob Hester blocked a punt and recovered it for a TD. Matt Cassel passed for just 97 yards and was intercepted three times, and the Chiefs were held to 203 yards and were 3-of-15 on third down.

    Two injured starters returned to practice yesterday (the Chiefs worked yesterday and will take Thanksgiving off) — linebacker Mike Vrabel and guard Andy Alleman. Backup running back Kolby Smith sprained his ankle against Pittsburgh but was practicing yesterday. Absent from practice were safety Maurice Leggett, who left Sunday's game with a shoulder injury, and linebacker Justin Rogers (thigh), who was inactive Sunday.

    The Chiefs lead 50-48-1, although the Chargers have won five of the past six and eight of the past 11. San Diego also has won four of the past five games played at Qualcomm Stadium, losing only in 2007. Last year's game, however, wasn't decided until a two-point conversion pass failed with 23 seconds to go. The Chargers won 20-19.

    It's not going to happen this year, but Chiefs rookie coach Todd Haley has won division titles with each of his four previous NFL teams. He was an assistant with the Jets (1998), Bears (2001), Cowboys (2006) and Cardinals (2008).

    “There was a buzz. And like I've said a bunch of times, everybody works too hard to not get results. And when you do get good results, it makes it a little more fun.” — Coach Todd Haley, on the different atmosphere in K.C. following the win over the Steelers

    11 Turnovers by the Chiefs this season, tied (with the Chargers) for fourth-lowest in NFL
    14 Takeaways by the Chiefs this season, tied for fifth-lowest in NFL
    38.9 Career net punting average for Dustin Colquitt, second in the NFL since the AFL-NFL merger behind only Mike Scifres (39).
    51-40 Margin by which Chiefs have outscored their opponents in their past three road games, winning twice
  2. Johnny Lightning

    Johnny Lightning Go Bolts

    Feb 7, 2006
    The Chargers are favored to beat the Chiefs by two touchdowns on Sunday. OLB Shaun Phillips said the team isn't taking the Chiefs lightly, but that's not the main point. "Our mindset is to focus on ourselves," he said. If the Chargers play up to their ability, he said, they like their chances, no matter the opponent
  3. Johnny Lightning

    Johnny Lightning Go Bolts

    Feb 7, 2006
    Chargers vs. Chiefs: AccuScore Analysis


    Sunday, November 29, 2009

    AccuScore runs 10,000 computer simulations of NFL games, one play at a time to project the likely outcome. Here is its assesment of today's Chargers game against the Chiefs:
    In 10,000 simulations the Chargers are winning 88 percent of the time by an average score of 29-24 over the Chiefs.
    The Chargers have the advantage across the board with Philip Rivers going 19-of-29 for 240 Yards, two TDs and just a 40 percent chance of throwing an interception, and Matt Cassel going 19-of-34 for 198 Yards, one TD and one INT. LaDainian Tomlinson is projected for 85 yards rushing and one TD while Jamaal Charles is rushing for just 45 yards on 3.5 yards per carry.
    Turnovers are the only way Chargers lose
    The Kansas City Chiefs upset the Steelers last week thanks to three Steelers turnovers. Even with three turnovers, the Chiefs still needed a kick-return TD and overtime to win the game. In simulations where the Chargers commit three or more turnovers, San Diego still is heavily favored, winning 73 percent of the time by an average of nine points. The key to the Chiefs upsetting San Diego is not only forcing turnovers, but also committing no turnovers themselves. Even in this extremely unlikely scenario the Chiefs are still just slight one-point favorites.

    Baseline (1 turnover) — 88% SD 29, KC 14
    Chargers 3+ turnovers 15% 73% SD 27, KC 18
    Chargers 3+ TO, KC Zero TO 3% 48% KC 21, SD 20
    LT has been playing much better in recent weeks and the Chiefs run defense has allowed 4.5 yards per carry (bottom third in the league). As long as LT averages 4.5+ yards per carry and the Chargers are not in many third-and-long situations where turnovers are more likely, San Diego should cruise to a double-digit victory with a 93 percent chance of winning.

    Cruising to AFC West title
    With San Diego playing well and Denver struggling, the Chargers are cruising to another AFC West win. Currently the Chargers have an 87 percent chance of winning the division to just 13 percent for Denver. Obviously, the Chargers cannot take any opponent lightly. If they come out flat and lose to Kansas City this week their chances of winning the division drop from 87 to 70 percent. If they win this week their chances only improve slightly (87 to 89 percent).
    In other words, the Chargers have little to gain by beating Kansas City this week, but they have a lot to lose.
    Chargers Beat Chiefs 88% 89%
    Chiefs Beat Chargers 12% 70%

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