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Spread moves nearly a TD; QB news likely cause

Discussion in 'Latest Chargers News & Headlines' started by robdog, Aug 10, 2005.

  1. robdog

    robdog Code Monkey Staff Member Administrator

    Jun 29, 2009
    <strong>August 10, 2005</strong>
    Source: <a href="http://www.covers.com/articles/articles.aspx?theArt=52562&tid=27&t=1">Covers.com</a>

    If you thought Monday's line move was big when it moved 4 1/2 points for the preseason matchup between Chicago and Miami, get a load of the swing for Thursday's preseason game between the San Diego Chargers and Green Bay Packers.

    Oddsmakers opened Green Bay as 2 1/2–point favorites last week when they released the line and until Tuesday, it looked like it would stick come kickoff. But faster than a Brett Favre bullet pass, the line shifted by nearly half a dozen points to its current mark of Green Bay +3 for the Pack`s preseason opener at Lambeau Field. (8:00pm ET, ESPN)

    "I think one of the major reasons for the swing is maybe because of the quarterbacks," says Shane Catford, linesmaker for betCRIS.com. "San Diego will have two guys going out there who are really in the running for the starter`s job, so they will be trying a little harder maybe."

    Those two guys are last year's comeback player of the year Drew Brees and fourth overall pick Phillip Rivers. Brees, who led the Chargers to their first winning season and AFC West division crown in a decade, is expected to play the first quarter on Thursday.

    Rivers is supposed to be challenging Brees for the starting job. However, he`s looked inconsistent in training camp, missing his targets while throwing a number of wobbly passes. Head coach Marty Schottenheimer said Brees will be the starter earlier this week, but that he plans on using his second-year pivot in the second and third quarters against Green Bay.

    "That's why that line is drifting the other way," said one 5Dimes.com lines manager, who did not want to use his name.

    5Dimes.com says that when oddsmakers opened Green Bay as the favorite, they underestimated the strength of San Diego's QBs.

    "I think they maybe thought the rotation wouldn't be as significant," he said. "But once they found out, and a little bit more information got out - boom! - the public started hitting the QBs. That's what I'm thinking they're betting on. That's what I would."

    Most sharp bettors and oddsmakers would agree that recent news tends to cause line moves in the preseason more than in the regular season.

    A similar shift occurred before Monday's preseason game between the Miami Dolphins and Chicago Bears when it became more clear who the starting quarterbacks would be for each team. Miami closed at -3 after opening as 1 "½- point home favorites.

    "Preseason games do get moved a lot harder and faster with less money," adds Catford. "You would hardly ever see such a swing in the regular season unless one team got ill with the flu or something."

    The total is set at 37 1/2 for Tuesday`s contest.

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