1. Welcome to San Diego Chargers NFL Football Podcast and Forum!

    Bolt Talk is one of the largest online communities for the San Diego Chargers. We host a regular Chargers podcast during the season. You are currently viewing our community forums as a guest user.

    Create an Account or

    Having an account grants you additional privileges, such as creating and participating in discussions. Furthermore, we hide most of the ads once you register as a member!
    Dismiss Notice

Trade down with Rams?

Discussion in 'NFL Draft' started by MasterOfPuppets, Feb 24, 2016.

  1. MasterOfPuppets

    MasterOfPuppets Charger fan since 1979

    Joined:
    Aug 8, 2006
    Messages:
    3,053
    Ratings:
    +636
    Let's assume the following:

    1) Tenn takes Tunsil
    2) Cleveland takes either Goff or Wentz
    3) The Rams need a QB and want to jump in front of the Cowboys for the other QB

    Would you trade the 3rd overall pick for pick 15, 43 and 45? giving the Chargers the following picks:

    Round 1
    #15

    Round 2
    #4 (35)
    #12 (43)
    #14 (45)

    What would you do with those picks?

    BTW: trade chart value favors the Rams 2200 - 1970 (so maybe they throw in their 3rd rounder #76 at 210 points)
     
    Last edited: Feb 24, 2016
  2. MasterOfPuppets

    MasterOfPuppets Charger fan since 1979

    Joined:
    Aug 8, 2006
    Messages:
    3,053
    Ratings:
    +636
    Maybe

    #15 : A'Shawn Robinson, DE/DT, Alabama or Robert Nkemdiche, DE/DT, Ole Miss
    #35 : Josh Doctson, WR, TCU
    #43 : Shon Coleman, OT, Auburn
    #45 : Su'a Cravens, S/LB, USC

    and in the third round

    #66 : Ryan Kelly, C, Alabama
     
  3. MadMike

    MadMike Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 17, 2006
    Messages:
    1,333
    Ratings:
    +504
    3rd pick is worth 2200 points on the value chart, 15th pick is worth 1050, 43 is 470, 45 is 450. So 2200 to 1970 on the value chart which is fairly close. They would probably have to add in their 3rd or 4th to make the values a little closer. But values are not everything. In most cases, superheroes win games (See Von Miller). You wont get a superhero at 15. I say stick with our 3rd and get us a superhero.
     
  4. matilack

    matilack Take A Knee McCree!!!

    Joined:
    Aug 14, 2006
    Messages:
    17,105
    Ratings:
    +3,556
    I'll take Aaron Donald, straight up, no questions asked. ;)

    No but really for moving that far back, with a QB involved, no way I'd agree to come away without a future 1st in a trade.

    Also remember Bears and Saints (11 and 12) are expected to be in the QB market. Drew Brees in on the final year of his deal, and he's old, and clearly wearing down. They'd be in a perfect position to groom a kid like Goff or Wentz for 1 year. And of course Cutler is a pariah in CHI.
     
    Last edited: Feb 24, 2016
  5. The LBC

    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

    Joined:
    Jun 28, 2010
    Messages:
    3,994
    Ratings:
    +1,394
    It's a nice fantasy, but the Rams aren't paying their first 3 picks to move up for the 2nd-choice of QB. Their 1st, one of the 2nd's, and maybe another mid-round pick (or a future 2nd).

    People need to stop looking at the Skins trading up for Robert Griffin as the standard comp - that was a trade agreed upon before the draft even started because one of two highly-thought-of (much higher than any of the top 3 QB's in this class) was obviously going #1 and Washington felt the need to get ahead of Cleveland who were known to be in the market for a QB and sitting at #3.

    More than likely, Jerry's still calling the shot in Dallas on this pick and they are very likely in the same boat we're in - need premium defensive assets to try and create one last window for their aging franchise QB. With Randy Gregory (tell me again why we should have just arbitrarily dismissed his multiple character red flags again, folks?) now looking at missing 4 games to start next season and facing a year-long suspension with any further incident, and Hardy on his way out the door - I don't know that Jerruh's going to let them go Quarterback's Apprentice with this pick.

    I'm sure some (I can already think of 1) will disagree. But I'm not trading back to barely within the Top 15 from a Top 3 pick unless there's a future 1st round pick on the table in the deal.
     
  6. The LBC

    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

    Joined:
    Jun 28, 2010
    Messages:
    3,994
    Ratings:
    +1,394
    Glad to see that, as usual, we're on the same page.
     
  7. The LBC

    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

    Joined:
    Jun 28, 2010
    Messages:
    3,994
    Ratings:
    +1,394
    That chart hasn't been accurate (as far as a gauge of what clubs willingly pay) since the rookie wage scale was put in place.
     
  8. matilack

    matilack Take A Knee McCree!!!

    Joined:
    Aug 14, 2006
    Messages:
    17,105
    Ratings:
    +3,556
    Cowboys are a wildcard right now because their needs are almost entirely on defense, but on the other hand Tony Romo is like Philip Rivers if Philip Rivers were made of glass. That guy gets hurt every year, even when he makes it 16 games he's usually limping to the finish line. Would anyone be completely surprised if he just hung it up in 2017? Or just started breaking down rapidly at age 36, 37?

    I think for cap reasons they're likely to cut Brandon Carr and Doug Free, and maybe Barry Church as well. Which makes their secondary a huge issue. After which I can see them getting in on a Chris Long, or Jason Pierre-Paul, or maybe even Eric Berry because that's just the kind of guy Jerry is; he wants big names. Maybe they bank on Jalen Ramsey being there at 4.

    But ultimately you're right. Knowing Jerry his wish list is likely....Ramsey or Bosa, trade out, then QB.

    BTW this is one of those times Charger fans who are not draftniks, don't appreciate the impact of winning meaningless games at the end of the year. Just imagine if we hadn't beat the Dolphins, or the Browns (by dumb luck) early in the year. We'd be sitting at 2, we could leak misinformation about drafting a QB if Tunsil is gone, and control this entire draft from the 2 spot. We might even have been able to get a dumbass franchise like the Browns to trade up 1 spot.
     
    Last edited: Feb 24, 2016
  9. scratchnz

    scratchnz BoltTalker

    Joined:
    Mar 1, 2009
    Messages:
    1,077
    Ratings:
    +91
    I don't think Ryan Kelly will slip to the 3rd round. Someone will take him early in the second!

    I would go...

    #15 : Jarran Reed DT/NT, Alabama
    #35 : Ryan Kelly C, Alabama
    #43 : Will Fuller WR, Notre Dame
    #45 : Jonathan Bullard DE, Florida
     
    • Like Like x 1
  10. Moses

    Moses Can You Stand The Rain?

    Joined:
    Mar 11, 2009
    Messages:
    848
    Ratings:
    +358
    If we did trade back into that kind of range, Andrew Billings would be an interesting prospect. Think he had a good showing at the combine, and has the potential to be a very good 3-4 NT.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  11. Chaincrusher

    Chaincrusher BoltTalker

    Joined:
    Apr 8, 2015
    Messages:
    2,330
    Ratings:
    +306
    Wow, I didn't look at what you did here and came up the following independently:

    #15: Andrew Billings, DT/NT, Baylor
    #35: Emmanuel Ogbah, OLB, Oklahoma State
    #43: Darron Lee, ILB, Ohio State
    #45: Josh Doctson, WR, TCU

    and Nick Martin, C, Notre Dame in the third round, followed by Hassan Ridgeway, 3-4 DE, Texas in the 4th round.

    In doing so, I was trying to find an OT and/or OG to take in the second round as you have, but did not find anyone that I thought was a fit there.

    I realize that my second round grouping is extremely ambitious as all three players listed could easily be taken in the first round, but they are all players that could realistically fall a little bit into the second round as well.

    If we get Damon Harrison from the Jets before the draft, then I would have to face the issue of whether or not I think Billings can play as a 3-4 DE. I think he can, because he is fairly quick, but I admit that I am not totally sure about that given that he certainly would not be the prototypical 3-4 DE body type in terms of his lack of length.

    Unfortunately, the Jets are tagging Wilkerson, which means we won't get him though it may increase the odds that Snacks will be available.
     
  12. matilack

    matilack Take A Knee McCree!!!

    Joined:
    Aug 14, 2006
    Messages:
    17,105
    Ratings:
    +3,556
    Charlie Casserly says the Cowboys "Need" Wentz or Goff at 4.
     
  13. scratchnz

    scratchnz BoltTalker

    Joined:
    Mar 1, 2009
    Messages:
    1,077
    Ratings:
    +91
     
  14. Chaincrusher

    Chaincrusher BoltTalker

    Joined:
    Apr 8, 2015
    Messages:
    2,330
    Ratings:
    +306
    Casserly is wrong.

    Romo is under contract through 2019 and even as late as 2018 his dead money figure is $8.9M (per spotrac), which would make him an expensive cut in that season. His base salary is far less than his dead money number through 2017.

    This means that if the Cowboys were to take their new QB of the future this year, he likely would be sitting the bench for at least 3 years and maybe 4 before seeing action in his 4th or 5th season either just before or after his rookie contract expires.

    There is no convincing evidence of a decline in Romo's performance and the Cowboys believe they are SB contenders right now with Romo.

    Using their first round pick on either Goff or Wentz, who nobody thinks is a once in decade or once in a generation QB, makes no sense at all.

    I think they will take their time in using a first round draft pick to find Romo's replacement and that it won't happen until they are convinced that their potential SB window with Romo is closed.

    However, if the Cowboys trade out of #4 into the late first round, securing a first round pick and an extra second round pick, I could see them possibly taking a falling Wentz or Goff with their own early second round pick because they would also have the extra second round pick at that point.
     
  15. matilack

    matilack Take A Knee McCree!!!

    Joined:
    Aug 14, 2006
    Messages:
    17,105
    Ratings:
    +3,556
    Unless they trade him at the end of the year, and likely garner a 1st round pick, or at least a couple 2s. He's not exactly the most popular player, or the most reliable.

    BTW dead money aside, if they trade/cut Romo in 2017 (or he retires) they can save $5M against their cap in 2017. This would also vacate all of the of the $36M in salary he's owed (and dead money) by 2018. It's a big picture decision, not a popular one, but one that could pay off in spades like Rogers to the Packers if it pans out.

    It's also important to remember that this isn't their only pick in the draft.
     
    Last edited: Mar 5, 2016
  16. MasterOfPuppets

    MasterOfPuppets Charger fan since 1979

    Joined:
    Aug 8, 2006
    Messages:
    3,053
    Ratings:
    +636
    from MMQB
    http://mmqb.si.com/mmqb/2016/03/06/peyton-manning-retirement-tom-brady-nfl

     
  17. Chaincrusher

    Chaincrusher BoltTalker

    Joined:
    Apr 8, 2015
    Messages:
    2,330
    Ratings:
    +306
    I disagree with most of what you have said here.

    Romo is very popular in Dallas, so I have no idea why you are suggesting that he is somehow unpopular. It doesn't matter what the rest of the league thinks about him. It matters what the team paying him thinks about him.

    And apart from being popular in Dallas, why would the Cowboys want to get rid of Romo? In his last full season (2014), he put up MVP caliber numbers in which he was at the top of the league in completion percentage, TD percentage, YPA and QB rating.

    Further, before last year, Romo played in 62 of the team's 64 immediately preceding games. So, he missed 2 games in 4 seasons. That isn't as good as Rivers, but assuming he recovers from his Mumford procedure and the surgery is successful, which is the expected outcome, Romo would seem to be as durable as most of the league's QBs.

    Moreover, why would the Cowboys choose to lose money and not keep their easily top 10 QB? It would actually cost them more to cut him than keep him in 2017 unless he is designated as a post June 1st cut. In the latter case, it looks like they would have to eat nearly $10M in each of 2017 and 2018 and would still have to fill the QB position.

    In my view, they won't look at getting rid of Romo until at least 2018, when they would have a net savings of just under $11M, but a cap hit of $8.9M to get rid of him. Because of the potential cap hit, if he is playing well, I think they will keep and pay him as his 2018 $19M salary is looking like a better deal for the Cowboys as time goes on and the salary cap and franchise tag numbers keep increasing.

    And if he continues to play well, they may just let him go ahead and finish his contract out in 2019, which would involve paying him $20.5M. But they could also easily cut him before the 2019 season as the cap hit would only be $3.2M at that point.

    Even if he plays all 4 seasons remaining on his contract, Romo will finish the contract off completely at age 39, not exactly an unfathomable possibility in today's NFL.
     
  18. matilack

    matilack Take A Knee McCree!!!

    Joined:
    Aug 14, 2006
    Messages:
    17,105
    Ratings:
    +3,556
    It's seems obvious now you don't understand how salary cap works because what you've said is patently wrong. Not misleading, just flat out wrong. I don't have time or patience or really the give a damn to explain it or debate the merits of saving cap on a player who can't finish seasons (much less to a person unwilling to listen) so let's just be done with this.
     
  19. Chaincrusher

    Chaincrusher BoltTalker

    Joined:
    Apr 8, 2015
    Messages:
    2,330
    Ratings:
    +306
    No, but I did look at the wrong column of Romo's salary chart for part of my discussion. Not sure why I did that.

    I agree that they save $5M (actually $5.1M) if they cut him in 2017 as you said, but they still would have to eat $19.6M in dead money unless he was designated as a post June 1st cut in which case that would be divided over 2017 and 2018 into two big salary cap hits ($10.7M and $8.9M, respectively, for 2017 and 2018, right?) instead of one gigantic one and they would still need to fill the QB position.

    Why wouldn't they just keep their four time Pro Bowl QB, who was a Pro Bowl QB in 2014, instead of sacrificing dead money to cut him as if he were Donald Butler? Romo is very good, not very bad.

    Romo is a borderline top 5 QB and easily a top 10 QB, and his base salary under his current contract only gets fairly competitive in the last two years of the deal (2018 and 2019). And even then, it is not some crazy high figure ($19.5M in 2018 and $20.5M in 2019) based upon the current ever increasing QB salary standards.

    I continue to see the Cowboys riding with Romo. There is no Aaron Rodgers (or even a lesser QB like Andrew Luck) in this year's draft. This year's QBs are more like Matt Ryan (Goff) and Ryan Tannehill (Wentz) level QBs.

    The Cowboys probably have at least 3-4 years to come up with a new QB for their future. I could see them extending that time by kicking the tires of Griffin III and Manziel (both of whom played college ball in Texas) as a potential capable reserve while they wait to draft their QB of the future until a good one comes along, all the while feeling confident that a reserve such as Griffin III or Manziel could even hold down the fort for a season or two after Romo hangs 'em up while they draft/develop their new QB.

    If anything, I see them compromising a season or two several years from now, and not compromising the ones now in which they perceive themselves to be a SB contender with Romo at QB by using a high draft pick on a QB that is going to sit the bench absent a Romo injury until Romo is gone.

    I think they will take players in the draft that will make more of an immediate impact and potentially put them over the top in terms of winning the Super Bowl. I continue to believe that Ezekiel Elliott behind that good Cowboys OL would be an awfully nice fit.
     
    Last edited: Mar 8, 2016
    • Like Like x 1

Share This Page