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Trent Dilfer breaks down Rivers 20INTs in 2011

Discussion in 'Chargers Fan Forum' started by Sydalish, Sep 6, 2012.

  1. Sydalish

    Sydalish Addicted to Sports

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    For what it's worth...

    TDESPN: http://twitter.com/TDESPN

    Just finished 5 hour on Rivers & Palmer's 2011 TD's & Int's. Interesting stuff. Let's see what the tape says. #TruthIsInTheTape

    Rivers Of his 20 int's in 2011 I broke them down into categories. When you look at the trends it is easier to evaluate

    Rivers 9 of 20 int's came vs man to man cov. Very surprising, considering before last year he was on of the best vs man cov

    Rivers 6/9 int's vs man cov were under thrown 2/9 over throws & 1/9 was tipped at line of scrimmage. 3/9 were also poor decisions

    Rivers 7/20 int's came vs 5+ pass rushers (some type of blitz). Of those 7 plays only two of them created conflict in the pocket

    Rivers 5/20 int's I categorized as PD/OA (poor decision/overly aggressive). This number is NOT HIGH relative to other NFL QB's

    Rivers 5/20 int's categorized as NOQB (not on quarterback).= there is NOTHING he did wrong, gr8 play by D or error by teammate

    Rivers The worst part of the study was that 8/20 int's came while Chargers were in scoring territory. CTP int's=Cost team points

    Those that say an int is an int, YOU ARE WRONG! Not all int's are created equal & each has a different stink. Objectivity=proper evaluation

    Rivers TD tape is much more enjoyable to watch. Rivers can stick in the zone with the best of them. 27 TD's and most were #Dimes

    Rivers Tight RZ passing takes anticipation, suddenness of mind, eyes & release and precise location. 12TD's & 0int's is very good

    Rivers Tight RZ passing (12 yd line and in) isn't talked about enough. Hardest place to throw the ball. Rivers #dealt 12TD/0int

    Rivers Tight RZ passing takes anticipation, suddenness of mind, eyes & release and precise location. 12TD's & 0int's is very good

    Rivers uses his eyes to manipulate D w/the best. On at least 10/27 TD's he used his eyes to tweak defense and open up TD throw

    Rivers/Chargers Norv loves dbl moves by rec & wr's to create chunk plays. 7/20 TD's came off dbl moves

    Hope you have a better understanding of Rivers 2011 season after #filmstudy. #TheTruthIsInTheTape Carson's TD/INT breakdown later tonight
     
  2. Blue Bolt

    Blue Bolt Persona Non Grata

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    Wait, I'm confused now....... does Rivers suck or not? ;)
     
  3. Carlsbad_Bolt_Fan

    Carlsbad_Bolt_Fan Well-Known Member

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    Well, that depends on which group you pay more attention to, the "it's another season, let's see what happens" group or the "everybody sucks because it's Norv, AJ & Spanos fault so fire everyone" group. The former are rational & boring. The latter are loud, whiny & easy to spot.
     
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  4. HEXEDBOLT

    HEXEDBOLT Don't like it, lump it!!!

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    He still sucks, just not as bad as some would like you to think.
     
  5. CoronaDoug

    CoronaDoug Well-Known Member

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    "Rivers 7/20 int's came vs 5+ pass rushers (some type of blitz). Of those 7 plays only two of them created conflict in the pocket"

    Two were due to pass rush.
     
  6. Sydalish

    Sydalish Addicted to Sports

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    If 5 were "not his fault" that's 15 INT's you can put on PR's shoulders.

    5 of those 15 were PR making a bad decision/being overly aggressive - which according to Trent, is statistically much lower than most QB's.

    My take-away, based on this breakdown, is that the 20INT stat from 2011 isn't as troubling as I previously thought.
     
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  7. matilack

    matilack Take A Knee McCree!!!

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    If you think about how often we throw deep, and how our O-line is always battered, it's amazing Rivers doesn't throw 20+ picks every year.
     
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  8. Lance19

    Lance19 BoltTalker

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    I wish I could agree with you Syd...but every QB has plenty of "not his faults." It's just part of the game.
    Can't really write 'em off. It makes us feel better, but unless we subtract the clumsy receiver-deflected passes
    of Brady, Brees, etc., it's kind of misleading to take much comfort in that "15" number.
    Further, 4 INTs in only 30 preseason attempts is hardly reinforcing the "last year was a once in a career fluke"
    narrative that I so want to believe. I think PR is a top-tier QB...but I've never been so unsure of it as I am today.
     
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  9. Blue Bolt

    Blue Bolt Persona Non Grata

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    That's even more confusing...... I consider myself in the first group, but I've been told that I complain too much. ;)
     
  10. Ikeman83

    Ikeman83 Werter Pöbel

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    Rivers' ints weren't typically atrocious plays, but alot of them were game breakers. Whether they were his fault or not, the ball getting picked as often as it was last season killed us. Whether it's the line playing better to allow Rivers more time, the receivers playing the ball more aggressively, the backs running more efficiently to reduce third/second and long situations, or Rivers being more willing to take the checkdown, the team as a whole needs to play better in order to reduce our turnover rate, so that we can get a bigger impact from the turnovers we force from our opponents.
     
  11. Ikeman83

    Ikeman83 Werter Pöbel

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    I have two theories on the reason for Rivers preseason pick rate. 1) Rivers has become rattled, and is making mistakes because of it. or, 2) Rivers is making high-risk throws to his new receivers in the preseason to see how they respond before the interceptions actually count.
     
  12. ETicket

    ETicket Well-Known Member

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    Sorry, doesn't work that way. You can't assign yourself to a group, someone else has to put you in a group. :p
     
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  13. Sydalish

    Sydalish Addicted to Sports

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    I'm not writing them off I'm just saying, in terms of PR's individual performance (not compared to anyone else but him) looking at the breakdown of those 15 picks that you can attribute to him vs. other players, I'm not AS troubled by the picks as I was before. I'm still troubled by it. Interceptions suck donkey balls.

    On a separate note... I also think it's good to know that pure overzealous/boneheaded plays by PR are comparatively less common than with other QB's. It's a positive I prefer to cling to in these dark times :x3:

    The pre-season picks definitely make me nervous... however, it's also pre-season and it's hard to get a fair assessment with such a limited number of plays + with vanilla schemes + Oline issues, etc... when they had an offensive rhythm going (which was admittedly rare) there was some good stuff there, so I'll remain cautiously optimistic and will "wait and see" how these first few games shake out. IMO, it's hard to be too super confident in either direction (good or bad) with so much up in the air right now.
     
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  14. Lance19

    Lance19 BoltTalker

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    You had me at "suck donkey balls."

    No, seriously, I agree with most of that, and--as much as it pains me to agree with Ike--I do think he's right
    re. PR kind of thinking "Aw, what the Hell...try to wing it in there...preseason don't count, anyway."
     
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  15. Ikeman83

    Ikeman83 Werter Pöbel

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    I typically post well-rationed thoughts, even if some of them are outrageously non-mainstream, so I'm not sure why it hurts you so. We'll find out which Rivers were going to have with this line setup starting Monday. I sincerely hope it's the elite clutch QB and not the rattled pick machine.
     
  16. Lance19

    Lance19 BoltTalker

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    I hereby note that your thoughts are rationed. :)
    Hey, I was trying (in my lovable, backhanded way) to pay you a a bit of a compliment...I'm not exactly Barney.

    Lance The Sweet Adorable Cub.jpg
     
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  17. HEXEDBOLT

    HEXEDBOLT Don't like it, lump it!!!

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    When you throw the ball they way the Bolt's do bad things are going to happen, they just try and minimize them. It would be very nice if they had that MIA power running game going to keep defensive units honest but you have to play the hand that is dealt you.
     
  18. ETicket

    ETicket Well-Known Member

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    The game on Wednesday was a good example. Dallas was getting zero push from it's OL and the running game was not there. Did they just keep battering away at it? No, they went to the air almost exclusively (until they had a 2 score lead) and won the game. I think many of our games, including the first, may play out in simular fashion.
     
  19. boltssbbound

    boltssbbound Well-Known Member

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    Exactly. Rivers is as aggressive a thrower as Favre, but he has nowhere near Favre's INTs. Favre's career TD ratio is 4.2% and his career INT ratio is 4.2%. Rivers' career TD ratio is 5.4% and his career INT ratio is 2.6%. But Favre is a first ballot HOF and Rivers "can't be trusted to protect the football" after one season of 20 INTs. Rivers TD/INT ratio (5.4/2.60) is actually better than Montana's (5.1/2.6), even though Rivers averages 8.0 yards per attempt in a deep passing offense while Montana averaged only 7.5 yards per attempt in a shorter throw/greater YAC offense.
     
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  20. JohnnyX

    JohnnyX 2017 Chargers Head Coach

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    Why does everyone look this deep into it? He had a horrible season, if he really is a elite QB he'll bounce back and put on a show.
     
  21. boltssbbound

    boltssbbound Well-Known Member

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    Perhaps some of us are looking "too deep" but an assessment like "he had a horrible season" is a view so shallow as to have no value. Rivers had a sub-par year compared with previous seasons of excellence, but to call it horrible would seem a bit harsh.
     
  22. Blue Bolt

    Blue Bolt Persona Non Grata

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    Rivers struggled last year with turnovers, but not for the entire season. The last 6 games, he only committed a few INTs.
     
  23. boltfanatik

    boltfanatik Toxic Minority Member

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    Damn Calm down, wait till at least week 5 to start making judgement calls. The sky is falling!!! LOL You folks crack me up at times.:rolleyes:
     
  24. JohnnyX

    JohnnyX 2017 Chargers Head Coach

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    It's the only thing that's been talked about involving Rivers this entire Off-Season. So excuse if I sound a bit annoyed with it all. I just hope this season doesn't become Rivers avoiding tough throws because he's afraid to throw picks. Just do what comes natural and he'll be fine.
     
  25. Buck Melanoma

    Buck Melanoma Guest

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    None to break down from last night.

    Maybe Rivers is listening. :rolleyes:
     
  26. DenverBolt67

    DenverBolt67 BoltTalker

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    Yeah, a guy who is 6th in passing yards and 8th in passing TD's sucks.
     
  27. DenverBolt67

    DenverBolt67 BoltTalker

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    He didn't look afraid to throw the ball last night
     
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