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Vegas hates the Chargers

Discussion in 'Chargers Fan Forum' started by Blue Bolt, Jul 2, 2015.

  1. Blue Bolt

    Blue Bolt Persona Non Grata

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    Chargers only have better odds than 6 teams for 2016 Super Bowl
    by Ernie Padaon

    The latest Las Vegas odds have been shared by Bovada and the San Diego Chargers only have better odds than 6 other teams in the league to win the Super Bowl.

    The most recent Vegas odds have just released today and there are only 6 teams that have worse odds than the Chargers. The San Diego Chargers have 50/1 odds to win the 2016 Super Bowl.

    The only teams that have worse odds than the Chargers are the Oakland Raiders, Cleveland Browns, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Washington Redskins, Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans. Will the Chargers really be that bad next season?

    I thought the team made some improvements in the offseason, but only having a better shot than 6 teams sounds crazy! Philip Rivers is still the quarterback for this team right? He should at least get us to the level that the Kansas City Chiefs are in. The Chiefs are 33/1 odds to win the Super Bowl. The Denver Broncos are 12/1 and the Raiders are 66/1.

    I know that it is too early to tell what is going to happen in the season and these odds don’t mean anything, but it still is crazy to think that the Chargers are expected to be at the bottom of the league.
     
  2. ntman68

    ntman68 Well-Known Member

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    Not sure why this is a shock to anyone. We are essentially a .500 team over the last, what... six years?
     
  3. robdog

    robdog Code Monkey Staff Member Administrator

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    And now we just lost AG for 4 games... Awesome.
     
  4. Joy Division

    Joy Division Slightly-known Member

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    Could be a big payday. Think I'm getting some of this action.
     
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  5. Pointyearedog

    Pointyearedog I only put idiots on ignore...

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    Gentlemen, place your bets...
     
  6. Chaincrusher

    Chaincrusher BoltTalker

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    If I were Vegas, I would not be making the Chargers only a 50-1 shot to win the Super Bowl.

    The Chargers are at least average in terms of their ability to win it all, which should make them no worse than 32-1. Also, it isn't like there is some dominant team that is blocking their path to the Super Bowl that would reduce the team's odds of reaching the Super Bowl.

    That said, I wouldn't put the team's odds at too much better than 32-1 either. Telesco's large handful of blunders has prevented us from building on some pretty strong foundational players (like Rivers, Weddle, Gates and Ryan Mathews) such that we could be considered as even an odds on team to make the playoffs, much less advance in them.

    With Rivers, it is certainly possible that we could make the playoffs and anything is possible once in the playoffs in the absence of a dominant team. But I don't see us ever being a playoff favorite with Telesco as GM. Telesco makes way too many very bad player personnel errors for us to build the type of playoff favorite teams that A.J. had in place in the past decade.

    My view is that the NFL is just too competitive to overcome Telesco's rate of player personnel blunder just like it is too competitive to overcome Norv Turner's rate of coaching blunder.
     
  7. Concudan

    Concudan Caffeinated Commando

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    I thought everyone hated the Chargers....

    Even a goodly number of the Chargers fans...
    :cautious:
     
  8. Fossil

    Fossil BoltTalker

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    Vegas odds are not reflections of actual probabilities.
     
  9. Concudan

    Concudan Caffeinated Commando

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    Shut yoh mouf!
     
  10. HEXEDBOLT

    HEXEDBOLT Don't like it, lump it!!!

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    I thought I smelled shyte burning, now I know where it was coming from. :eek:
     
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  11. AnteaterCharger

    AnteaterCharger Calibrating Bolttalk, Podcast by Podcast Staff Member Super Moderator Podcaster

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    at those odds I'd be willing to throw some money down
     
  12. Pointyearedog

    Pointyearedog I only put idiots on ignore...

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    I smell a sucker bet...
     
  13. Blitzy

    Blitzy Spanos Chargers Troll

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    If the Chargers were one of 32 numbers inside a bag and if picked at random on a once occurrence, then the probability would be in deed 32-1. Otherwise, just because there are 32 teams in the league, that does NOT make the worst odds 32:1 :rolleyes:

    Many more combinations and permutations factored in, therefore the probability is not as simplistic as the number of teams in the NFL. I really hope that you are better at law than you are at statistical modeling. Stick to what you are good at son, i.e, bashing Tom Telesco ;)
     
  14. Chaincrusher

    Chaincrusher BoltTalker

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    Blitzy, I never said that the worst odds were 32-1 for any team and I am surprised that that is what you took away from my post. You are challenging a point that I am not making.

    My point is that after considering all factors involved, I think the team's chances are no worse than the "draw out of a bag" chance you referenced and probably slightly, but not much better (just as I stated in my previous post). Specifically, I would put them in the 25-1 or 30-1 range to win it all. By contrast, I would put the odds of the Titans winning it all at about 250-1.

    Again, there are no dominant teams at all in the NFL. So this is not like the recently concluded NBA playoffs where, before the playoffs began, CLE was the favorite to win it all not because anyone thought they were the best team, but because there were more major obstacles for GS to overcome on the way to the championship because the Western Conference was so strong and the Eastern Conference was so weak by comparison.

    My point is that there are no factors like that that one would look at and conclude that the Chargers' chances of winning it all are necessarily smaller because world beaters X, Y and Z are in the AFC and the Chargers would have to go through them just to get to the Super Bowl (see San Diego Chargers, 2006 and 2007 NFL seasons).

    (In looking at the current odds, it looks like the Colts are getting the benefit of CLE NBA example I mentioned above with their odds being 8-1. The AFC South is clearly the weakest division in the NFL, so that looks like a free pass for the Colts to the playoffs and it looks like the Super Bowl victory odds reflect that.)

    So here we have a 9-7 fringe type playoff team the last two years (barely in in 2013 and barely out in 2014) and nothing else going on in the league that should dramatically alter the team's chances.

    In a familiar refrain, we didn't do much to get better overall as we let some opportunities get past us, failing to keep one very good player and several solid players, adding players that are probably a push at best with the ones we let go at several positions, losing depth at some positions, adding it at others. We are still mostly Rivers, Weddle, a few players that are above average on a good day, and meh.

    I think we are very slightly above average to average in terms of talent. We certainly are not significantly more talented than we were after the 2012 season when Telesco took over although we are better coached.
     
    Last edited: Jul 8, 2015
  15. Blitzy

    Blitzy Spanos Chargers Troll

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    You had me at "Blitzy". I come in peace Chainy ;)

    But if you ever wanted to get into statistics side of things, Lance19 (nowadays in stealth mode) is your man!
     
  16. Ikeman83

    Ikeman83 Werter Pöbel

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    How many gimme games do you see on the Charger's schedule?

    Playing the AFC and NFC North, I think that it'll be challenging to get to the playoffs from the AFC W as a non-division winner. You have to get into the playoffs to win the SB, and I think that Vegas just believes that Denver has a better chance of getting into the playoffs than we do.
     
  17. Chaincrusher

    Chaincrusher BoltTalker

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    Based upon last year and a rough analysis of the offseason, I would say that we should be solid favorites in the following games: OAK, CLE, @JAC and CHI

    I think we should be small favorites in the following games: DET, PIT, KC, @MIN, MIA and @OAK.

    I think we should be small to solid underdogs in the following games: @CIN, @GB, @BAL, DEN, @KC and @DEN.

    That said, only 12 teams make the playoffs and our odds were, at the time of the OP's post, were worse than or equal to those of 26 teams.

    We are a fringe playoff type team (barely in or barely out) so absent something that would alter our path to the Super Bowl (which there isn't) we should have around the 11th-14th best odds. Interestingly, that shows a range of 35-1 to 40-1 and we are now listed at 40-1.

    I think our true odds are slightly better than 32-1 (in the 25-1 to 30-1 range), but those setting the odds must feel that setting the odds based upon our actual chance of winning will not generate enough bets on us.

    Personally, I think betting the Super Bowl before the season begins is a sucker's bet.
     
  18. The LBC

    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    This is true. But consider also that the AFC North put three teams into the playoffs last season. So while those head-to-head wins will be quite difficult to come by, they also likely count for at least 1.5 on the power scale, just in the sense of likelihood to make the playoffs in the conference. Their division is just as highly competitive as ours is and they're playing the NFC West (which at this point is just as competitive as the NFC North, even with the losses that some of said NFCW teams suffered this offseason).

    Also, at least to my recollection, we've fared better in recent history against AFC North teams (not named the Pittsburgh Steelers) than we have against AFC East teams (friggin' Miami!). The playoffs are by no means a guarantee, or even a likelihood (unless Peyton comes out in January Noodle-Arm form before winter hits). But this has been a team that's, under the current regime, risen to the task and played up to the level of the good teams it plays and plays down to the level of the bad teams it plays. So, there's a part of me that - with that in mind - doesn't fear as much when I see a schedule full of at least average to above average teams on the slate.
     
  19. Franco Spartacus

    Franco Spartacus BoltTalker

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    Well, firstly, "we" are in no great position and haven't been for years. It does not look good. There have been great individual athletes, no doubt at all, but no TEAM, let alone "winning."
    Furthermore, the latest of all debacles with Spanos, Fabiani, and Carson are a total joke. Let those spoiled brats who want everything, and everyone else to pay for it, including free land, rent, etc., et.c, etc. go to C____.
    Even the traffic study by the mayor was flawed by an idiot Charger fan pulling the car counters off the streets...which I personally witnessed, time-and-time again. End the BS and just go, Chargers, go!
     
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