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we're #2! (draft order that is)

Discussion in 'Chargers Fan Forum' started by MasterOfPuppets, Nov 10, 2015.

  1. MasterOfPuppets

    MasterOfPuppets Charger fan since 1979

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    http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap30...ery-team?campaign=tw-nf-sf15117524-sf15117524

    2. San Diego Chargers
    2015 record: 2-7 (.500)
    Top need: Wide receiver
    Other needs: Linebacker, quarterback, center
    Senior prospects at positional needs: WR: D.J. Foster (Arizona State), Sterling Shepard (Oklahoma), Josh Doctson (TCU); LB: Jordan Jenkins (Georgia), Reggie Ragland (Alabama), Terrance Smith (Florida State); QB: Connor Cook (Michigan State), Jacoby Brissett (North Carolina State), Trevone Boykin (TCU), Cody Kessler (USC); Center: Nick Martin (Notre Dame), Mike Matthews (Texas A&M).
    Analysis: For years it was just Antonio Gates, maybe Vincent Jackson and then a slew of guys catching passes from Philip Rivers. Gates is on the way out, and the Chargers need more help at wide receiver beyond Keenan Allen, who is out for the season with an injury. Denzel Perryman is waiting in the wings at inside linebacker, but it wouldn't hurt to add another player to that position. While finding a backup quarterback to potentially take over for Rivers could be in the works, finding a starting center who is at least average to above average should be a priority in the offseason.
     
  2. MasterOfPuppets

    MasterOfPuppets Charger fan since 1979

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    So...no DE is not a need? not even in the "other needs" category?

    And an interesting thought, if the Chargers were to finish at #2 and a top flight can't miss QB were there, would you take him?
     
  3. Lancer 1

    Lancer 1 Eternal Optimist

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    We probably won’t finish that high, we’ll probably win enough games to drop out of the top 5 at least.

    I think we’ll beat the Chiefs at least once, hopefully the Jags (I’m going to that game) possibly the Dolphins and we may win the rematch in Oakland, and possibly even take 1 of the games against Denver.

    This is looking kinda like a 6-10 season to me.
     
  4. Slam

    Slam BoltTalker

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    I will be happy with drafting all defensive and offensive linesman.
     
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  5. matilack

    matilack Take A Knee McCree!!!

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    I would have predicted a win against the Bears (without Forte) long before I'd predict one against the Chiefs or Broncos, I think they sweep us. Both Ds are far too good for this offense to muster more than maybe 17 points, and the offenses are good enough to beat our piss poor defense. And even if we do steal a win you got the Raiders on the road, they whooped our *** in the Q last time.

    I'm thinking no better than 5-11, and that's if we don't lose any more key players to injury.
     
  6. The LBC

    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    There isn't though. Also, with Rivers' contract, he's the guy behind the line for the next 2-3 seasons unless he retires prematurely (which knowing Phil he'll only do if he's physically unable to play).

    Moreover, if there was a "can't miss" QB, he'd be going #1 overall guaranteed.
     
  7. Bruce Daniel

    Bruce Daniel BoltTalker

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    With the way we're playing, I don't know if we can (or quite frankly have the heart) to win another game. The Jags (maybe) will be the only game we're favored in from here on out. 4-12 at best for this team.
     
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  8. The LBC

    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    Law of averages says that with the regularity NFL refs screw up, we're bound to have one game we have no business winning fall into our laps.

    That said... Law of What-Happened-Against-the-Steelers says that this team is perfectly capable of squandering even those unearned gifts.
     
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  9. Bruce Daniel

    Bruce Daniel BoltTalker

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    I think it's a combination of things at this point. The injuries, the non existent home field, the uncertainty of relocation, the poor coaching, the general disappointment of this season. I don't see a lot of fight in this team. I think if we jump out on someone maybe we could put together a win, but the first sign things start going downhill this team will mail it in.

    That being said, I think we end up in the top three in this class. And I have it for us
    1. Tunsil
    2. Stanley
    3. Jaylon Smith
     
  10. MasterOfPuppets

    MasterOfPuppets Charger fan since 1979

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    it was more hypothetical, let's say someone like Mariotta is there at the Chargers' spot, would you tak a QB of the future and sit him for 3 years or draft a position of need? I'd go with position of need
     
  11. Ride The Lightning

    Ride The Lightning Join the Dark Side, we have cookies.

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    WR??? Really?

    It's been OL & DL (NT especially) since forever and ever.

    :mad:
     
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  12. LT-Express

    LT-Express Bolttalk.com Janitor since 06' Staff Member Super Moderator

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    Not even sure with all the injuries if we will even be favored against the Jags by the time the line closes on gameday.
     
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  13. The LBC

    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    Barring a scheme change - Jaylon Smith doesn't fit this team. He's a 4-3 LB and the only fit he has in a 3-4 is as an odd fit at ILB (which at this point we've sunk enough investment into recently, it's kind of unconscionable to turn around and sink a Top 5 pick into).

    Stanley has a fantastic ceiling, and likely future, he is going to struggle as a rookie, especially if anyone's thinking of sticking him on the left side to block the opposition's most athletic pass-rusher. His footwork right now is on-point, he's in position like a champ, his handwork is raw as hell (and by that I mean, it's virtually non-existent). He grabs guys A TON because he doesn't place his hands well, doesn't get leverage, and is left with little other option than grab or get his QB killed.

    If Joey Bosa is available, no questions asked, you take him. He's the sort of player that you build your scheme around. If he has a few limitations (and he does), you work the scheme to minimize the opportunities for those limitations to be exploited, and move your other pieces around to fill in around him. You want a look at how one premier pass-rusher can change the fortunes of a defense as a whole, look at St. Louis after they drafted Robert Quinn. Yes, they had Chris Long who despite his legacy and high draft stock was very good, but not transformational in the way you'd expect a Top 3 pick to be. Insert Quinn, and that defense jumped from middle of the road in the league in sacks to perennially Top 5 in a single year. You don't try to make him bulk up to play somewhere else he hasn't done before if it doesn't suit his skillset. No forcing square pegs into round holes, rather you adapt the hole (or the "whole") to fit the lynch pin peg.
     
  14. The LBC

    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    Even hypothetical premises take into consideration the available facts at the time. And, I can tell you as someone that was both a champion of Mariota and who has taken a fairly scrutinizing look at this QB class thus far, there's maybe MAYBE one QB prospect in this class who might sniff Mariota's combination of upside, athletic ability, and football IQ and he's still got a ton of question marks in regard to the last bit because we simply haven't had the opportunity to get much of a view of him beyond this season (that being Paxton Lynch). Otherwise, you're looking at guys in this class who are likely to max out (if everything goes according to plan and all marks are met - which is rare) in the Andy Dalton/Matt Ryan territory where they're largely going to only be as good as the talent around them - not the kind of guys who elevate the talent around them.

    If you're asking if, specifically, Marcus Mariota was available to us in next year's draft would I take him foregoing need? Absolutely. My only reservation would be that I'd want Philip onboard - or at least not openly incensed by it. Quarterback is the singlemost important position in this league and it's the one with the most limited pool of adequate candidates to draw from. If you have the opportunity to pull a Green Bay or an Indianapolis and not have to go through the unpredictable amount of "transition years" between franchise QB's, you jump on that opportunity and say, "Thank you."

    That said, I'm of the opinion that it's in every team's interest to draft a QB every year, unless you've got a proven, young (preferably pre-2nd-contract/prime) option on the roster. QB prospects are lottery tickets. If they show even the remotest amount of on-field potential, while they may never work out for you (or even in the long-run) they can be sold off for a tidy ROI. For God's sake, look at the return we got for Clipboard Jesus? Look at what Alex Smith fetched in trade. What guys like Matt Schaub fetched in trade. It's akin to playing pot-odds in poker; particularly if you're talking 4th round onward.
     
    Last edited: Nov 10, 2015
  15. Bruce Daniel

    Bruce Daniel BoltTalker

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    Are you that high on Bosa? I keep hearing the JJ Watt comparison and I don't think he's on JJ's level. I like him, don't get me wrong, I don't know if I see him as elite. I see more Jared Allen, which is pretty damn good I guess
     
  16. Bruce Daniel

    Bruce Daniel BoltTalker

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    Let me ask you this also - is there one guy on this defense that is better served in a 3-4 than a 4-3 ?
     
  17. The LBC

    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    Bosa ideally fits a 4-3 better than a 3-4 - but that's because you can stick him over at SSDE and he'll give you the kind of pass-rush on that side (while giving you quality run-defense) that you'd normally get out of a weak-side rusher. I don't think JJ Watt is completely apt, because while Bosa is freak athletic, Watt was a once in a generation type beast (the guy could legitimately play 5 positions on the field; plus Bosa doesn't have Watt's length. I'm more inclined to draw a parallel to Michael Bennett. At this point Bosa is as quick and athletic as Oklahoma's Eric Striker - except Bosa is so while 4 inches taller and 60 pounds heavier than Striker.

    Again, he lacks the pure length, but he wins very similarly to Aldon Smith - which is better comparison than Watt, but still not ideal. The guy has legit Justin Houston type upside (another guy when he came out who I thought was a better fit as a 4-3 SSDE but ended up shifting out to 3-4 OLB just fine).
     
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  18. matilack

    matilack Take A Knee McCree!!!

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    To be fair, we couldn't have said JJ Watt would be JJ Watt either. He was certainly on my short list (and many others here) coming into that draft, but nobody said..."that guy is going to get 15-20 sacks a year and be the best defensive player in the league."

    It's going to be interesting to see which way Bosa goes physically, if he can get up to the 290 pound range of a JJ Watt, or if he stays in that tweener class.
     
  19. The LBC

    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    I had him pegged as someone who was going to be special unless injuries (or something like his own stupidity) drug him down. He had the athleticism test scores of high-end/would-be-elite EDGE players, but he had that at 290 lbs with outstanding length. And then you throw in that on tape you could see that athleticism translate. Did I know that he'd be a guy that would be producing sometimes even in the face of triple-teams? No. Would I have given him at least even odds of being capable of that? Yes; I was on record that he could play OLB in a 3-4 if a team wanted to line him up there (and I still believe he could). I had him pegged as pretty easily a 10-12 sack/yr average. unless a team did something truly wasteful with him like ask him to two-gap. He was well within my Top 5 prospects in that class and had teased Top 3 - and that was in a class with AJ Green (I was proven wrong on Julio Jones - who I had flagged for reasons he proved me wrong on), Von Miller, and Patrick Peterson (who was one of those guys I started to waver on in favor of Watt). I had Watt - as a pure prospect - above Dareus because of versatility and belief that he could play a more coveted position.
     
  20. Dublin Bolt

    Dublin Bolt BoltTalker

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    I see the Tackle Tunsil atop many draft boards. Valuewise bearing in mind what we need should we be taking him or one of the D linemen i.e. Bosa or the Ole Miss DT whose name I cannot spell?.
     
  21. charger1993

    charger1993 bad motherfucker

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    while i doubt we get the second pick "which would be needed right now", id like to see us trade down a couple spots,maybe to number 8 or 9 depending on what were offered. We'd still be able to grab nmdiche,or ramsey. While getting more picks
     
  22. Concudan

    Concudan Caffeinated Commando

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    BEEF! Its whats fer draftin!
     
  23. Chaincrusher

    Chaincrusher BoltTalker

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    Well, it would be pretty safe to say that I do not agree with the analysis provided by the offer of the cited article.

    WTF is that guy talking about?! No priority for 3-4 DE, NT, S, OG or OT?! WR as top priority?! QB listed as a need?! Has this guy ever heard of Philip Rivers?! Does this joker understand that it is likely going to take a first or second round pick to get a starting caliber QB and that the guy won't play until at least 2020?! I could see taking a QB with a first or second round in the 2018 draft, but not much sooner than that. Taking one in 2016 seems like a huge waste of a pick and that QB would be a free agent around the same time Rivers might consider hanging 'em up.
     
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  24. The LBC

    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    You're not getting either of those two outside the Top 6-7. There are three out-and-out blue chippers in this class: Bosa, Ronnie Stanley, and Jalen Ramsey (the more and more I watch him, the more and more I think he's a marginally-lesser Earl Thomas - and that's not a bad thing). Past that, we'll likely see 1, maybe 2, QB's slot it, but more likely that those will happen inside the Top 10 than the Top 5.

    Per pretty much staggering odds, you want one of the three blue-chippers in this class you're going to have to spend a Top 5 pick on them, not trade back and hope for one of them to fall to you in the later third of the Top 10. Leonard Williams fell this year, but only to #6 and that was with two QB's going in the Top 2 that are better prospects than any in this upcoming class.
     
  25. charger1993

    charger1993 bad motherfucker

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    That's a good point. Both guys I'm not super high on. But ramsey could be special. My only thing is if we stay and don't tease back I don't see us plugging enough holes. So I'm looking at it like a pick your poison type of situation. So do u go with the blue chipper or roll the dice
     
  26. The LBC

    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    Again, stop thinking we're going to be able to plug all the holes in one draft or one year. You plug the holes you can, and put emphasis on bringing in players that make holes that may have to be left less impactful because of the surrounding cast.

    Trying to trade back to do everything at once leaves you with a big pile of mediocrity and very little special on the field.

    Literally, unless a future 1st is on the table - and from a team expected to be picking fairly high the next year - you flat out do NOT pass on blue-chip talent to "try and fill more needs".
     
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  27. matilack

    matilack Take A Knee McCree!!!

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    It depends on the class as well. How many blue chips are involved, and how far you'd have to move back.
     
  28. charger1993

    charger1993 bad motherfucker

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    True, i see what you're saying. But if we lose weddle it'll be hard to replace him, I'm more concerned with our oline and dline. I Just wanna see some improvements. We need to stop the run and give rivers some time to throw. But college football ends soon so we should see how everyone is looking before the combine. Who knows after it.
     
  29. Chaincrusher

    Chaincrusher BoltTalker

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    Your analysis assumes that teams can consistently spot blue chip talent and that draft boards are an exact reflection of actual NFL ability. But the reality is that while most GMs can spot the difference between a first round player and a seventh round player, when the space between picks shrinks to a small range within a round, talent evaluators are not as accurate at setting the precise order.

    Also, some picks that appeared to be solid at the time end up being busts or at least less successful in their NFL careers.

    Moreover, based upon team needs and each team's individual talent evaluation, not all draft boards will be created equally. And as a memo to Telesco, a team drafting in front of a GM's team may have no interest at all in a player that the GM hopes will fall.

    And, most importantly, traditional draft pick trading values have been out of whack forever. The trade values strongly favor the team trading back.

    All of the foregoing strongly suggests that an approach of using multiple small trade backs will maximize the value of the draft picks.

    For example, based upon the traditional draft pick trading points value chart, the #2 pick has a value of 10 trading points more than the #4, #36 and #68 pick combined (2600 versus 2590). If I had the #2 pick, I would do that trade 100 times out of 100. Heck, I would do that trade for just #4 and #36.

    And, if the trading partner were there, I would trade back again to #10, picking up pick #42. That would leave me with a top 10 draft pick and 3 of the first 10 picks in the second round (2nd, 4th and 10th) without even getting full chart value for the first trade.

    In a perfect world, the trade backs allow a team to stock its roster with more higher quality players. On the other hand, if the GM drafts poorly, then the GM has some insurance against one or even two bad picks.

    It is just a better draft strategy than the "throw draft picks away for no reason" trade up strategy adopted by Telesco.
     
  30. Concudan

    Concudan Caffeinated Commando

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    Actually, based on your overly repeated opinion of Telesco (tell us on this anatomically correct doll where Telesco hurt you)... SO DO YOU.
     
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