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With these guys available at 18, who do you take?

Discussion in 'Chargers Fan Forum' started by MadMike, Mar 23, 2012.

  1. MadMike

    MadMike Well-Known Member

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    So cruising around just about every site on the web with mocks, knowing what our team needs, knowing how batshit AJ can be sometimes (although I'd argue that this year he will stick to a true value pick as opposed to picking an "AJ" guy), and knowing that teams in front of us have some desire on these players as well, who would you rather have on this team for an immediate impact?

    Cordy Glenn OT Georgia
    Jonathan Martin OT Stanford

    I don't think we go OL in the first with the issues we have on DL and OLB pass rushing, but if we did it will be either Cordy Glenn or Jonathan Martin. I just don't think an OT would have the same impact now that we have a solid pass protector in the backfield with Le'Ron McClain. Area of need for sure, but not in the same stratosphere as DL\OLB\SS.

    Mark Barron SS Bama

    If he falls to 18 which he may is it worth taking him here as opposed to taking a solid SS in the 2nd. I just don't think Mark brings that much more to the table then some of the second rounders we could jump on. I don't see us going SS here but I could be wrong. And there is a good chance he will not be here as I really think the Jets are gonna take him.

    Courtney Upshaw OLB Bama
    Whitney Mercilus DE Illinois
    Michael Brockers DT LSU

    I bundle these last three because I think we will take one of these guys if they are available. There is a very good chance that 1 or 2 of these guys could go before 18, but my best guess is they will be here for us to take. I know Courtney Upshaw from tape, I know he will be a great bull rusher for us which we havent had since Merriman went off the roids. We could definitely go with him. Whitney Mercilus may be more well rounded then Upshaw and he is definitely faster but I think AJ would like to bring in someone in the Shawne Beast Mode Merriman type and that is not Mercilus. Brockers may be the dark horse here and I think he makes more sense now with our free agent signings. Double J and Demorrio Williams will give Shaun and Antwan more reps off, keeping them fresher, and allowing them to bring the heat more consistently. With Luis out, and even if he does come back for less, we need a solid bruising DE and you cannot go wrong with Brockers. Dude is young and raw and can already play just off athletic skill better than any DE we've had in the past 5 to 10 years. With maturity and training he may end up being a top 5 player out of this draft. I say draft the beef, let them eat up the other teams OL, and let Shaun and Antwan do the blitzing, so my money is on Brockers.


    Who do you want?
     
  2. Ikeman83

    Ikeman83 Werter Pöbel

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    With Dielman's retirement, the biggest immediate impact player likely to be on the board for us is DeCastro.
     
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  3. DenverBolt67

    DenverBolt67 BoltTalker

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    If it isn't a OLB or SS, I will be extremely disappointed
     
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  4. Ikeman83

    Ikeman83 Werter Pöbel

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    Barron won't be an impact player for us, unless he's impacting the team by not being able to cover TEs. We might do very well in this 3-4 OLB pool and get an impact player who will be a long-term difference maker, however, the opening paragraph specifically states "immediate impact"
     
  5. The LBC

    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    Of those listed, I'd be fishing for Upshaw or Glenn. Barron's got too many question marks surrounding him and is being hyped entirely too much because he's the quote-unquote best safety in a pretty miserable safety class. Martin's getting rated higher than guys like Glenn by the draftniks because he has the potential to play LT, whereas Glenn's projects best as a guard (I'd wager near-elite ceiling as a guard) and would be serviceable as a RT/Swing-tackle.

    I know that suddenly the combine changes people's opinions of Mercilus, but the combine truly only exists to prompt a scout to go back and review tape in case they missed something that the workout numbers say they might have. I went back and reviewed whatever Illinois footage I could get of Mercilus and he's still got a pretty weak first-step and is an effort-rusher versus a beast-athlete rusher who honestly still projects best as a 4-3 LDE. If he proves me wrong, I'll willingly eat my crow, but i trust the tape more than I do the combine numbers.

    As for Brockers... decent dark horse, but again... 5-Tech DE's don't contribute in the 1st year the majority of the time (along with 90% of most LSU DL drafted early... the stats back me up on this). So drafting Brockers brings a lot of question up that would need to be addressed relating to the future (e.g. who moves inside once he's developed: Liuget or Martin?) for what would likely be not a whole lot of first-year impact.

    Of the guys listed, Brockers and Glenn have the highest ceilings, which is almost always my preference in the 1st round. that said... with Phillips and Barnes both FA's in 2013, I might lean heavily towards Upshaw just because he's a guy who lessens that impact because he has such a high floor.
     
  6. ThunderHorse17

    ThunderHorse17 Lone Wolf

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    I think Cordy is great choice since he can shift around and is lookin to be one of the best guards coming out as mentinoed before.

    What I wonder is will Harrison Smith wind up going in the bottom of the first??
     
  7. The LBC

    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    Doubtful. The only real threat may be Belichick having two 1sts and having an affinity for DB's, but he's got Ras-I Dowling and Leigh Bodden coming back from injury this year as well.

    A lot of the teams drafting in the bottom of the 1st tend to go with a BPA approach (notice the correlation between this strategy and the teams that are consistently picking in that vicinity...) and that certainly won't be Smith in that instance; there will be better value prospects that slip through the cracks to them like there are every year. I'm not guaranteeing Smith makes it to our natural 2nd, I've actually got legitimate concern that a team may trade up to take him or just select him naturally in the top 10 of the 2nd, but at least some of the teams that were picking immediately ahead of us who were threats to take safeties have salved their needs a bit in FA (Cowboys, Jets)
     
  8. AnteaterCharger

    AnteaterCharger Calibrating Bolttalk, Podcast by Podcast Staff Member Super Moderator Podcaster

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    DeCastro
    KirkPatrick
    Mericlus
    Brockers
    Perry
    Glenn
    Barron
     
  9. The LBC

    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    Mayock be damned, I'd still take Andre Branch over Mercilus. He's got greater potential as a more complete OLB and he's sure as that brown stuff that falls from the backside of cows got a higher ceiling than Mercilus does. Does Branch have some facets of his game that need work? Yes... what prospect doesn't. Can he still contribute on the immediate front as a pass-rusher? Hell yes, and anyone who says differently hasn't watched (enough) tape on him; if anything the fact that he plays with better pad-level than most of the other edge-rushing prospects with adequate size in this draft class projects him to make a more immediate impact. Poor pad-level is something that can be corrected but it's by now means an easy fix.
     
  10. Blue Bolt

    Blue Bolt Persona Non Grata

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    [​IMG]
     
  11. matilack

    matilack Take A Knee McCree!!!

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    Smith admits draft picks need to be more productive

    by Dan McLellan, CBSSports.com
    Going back to 2007, only two of general managers A.J. Smith’s 34 draft picks have matured into Pro Bowlers (FS Eric Weddle and RB Ryan Mathews). Smith admitted to Chargers season ticket holders that the team has struggled in recent years to get production out of high-round picks. “I don’t think it has been a talent evaluation thing,” Smith said. “Sometimes players get hurt.”
     
  12. gettough

    gettough BoltTalker

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    Lmao
     
  13. MadMike

    MadMike Well-Known Member

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    And sometimes players are injury prone and should have been evaluated better...
     
  14. matilack

    matilack Take A Knee McCree!!!

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    I still like Branch, but he lacks an obvious power game and that concerns me. Guys like James Harrison, Clay Mathews, DeMarcus Ware etc... don't rely soley on a quick first step and a good swim move. What makes them great is the ability to switch between speed rush and bull rush at a whim and keep the OT guessing.

    And this is where it gets tough. Because maybe an NFL weight room and more focus on lower body strength could cure that issue....or maybe he becomes another Antwan Barnes. Personally I have Perry, Mercilus, Branch in that order. But it depends on what your think is easier to fix, physical strength or pass rush technique....its a toss up.
     
  15. The LBC

    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    See... I see absolutely nothing dynamic about Mercilus' pass-rushing game. He's an effort rusher with limited athletic upside in that regard, he just happens to have one year of truly great production (amongst a bunch of other ho-hum seasons) and has the potential to be able to drop into coverage and move laterally. Short of Mercilus being stronger against the run, how does this separate him from a prospect like Sam Acho (and he's by far more Acho than Sergio Kindle and even Kindle was someone I wouldn't have sunk a 1st rounder into)? In short, my biggest issue with Mercilus is that he has only marginally more ceiling than Upshaw and I'm not as convinced he'll maximize to reach that ceiling as I am that Upshaw at least will. Limited upside does not equal 1st round pick - it's how we end up with another Larry English on our hands.

    When Clay Matthews came into the league, he was predominantly a speed rusher - it was his quick twitch and explosive burst off the snap that got him drafted as high as he was in the first place. He built into having that power rush option available to him. My point is that we have the luxury, with the signing of JJ, to not have to sacrifice ceiling for floor because we don't 100% have to get a Week 1 starter from whatever OLB we do select. We can do what teams like the Giants, Niners, and a few others have been doing - to success I might add - and select the guy with the most upside and not feel the need to put him on the field except as a situational pass-rusher in his rookie campaign. Andre Branch, to me, harks of Mathias Kiwianuka in terms of prospect for prospect. Like Kiwi all the technique (the low pad-level, the good center of gravity, the collegiate-effective bull-rush) is already there and he's a case of a kid who needs the weight room - and even then you can bet in preparing for the combine and the draft he's probably seen a fair amount of that since the 2011 NCAA season (that 10' broad jump was indicative of that). In terms of block-shedding ability, Branch is also miles ahead of Mercilus in his development - which is one of the major red flags I have on Mercilus because he has pretty well-developed, long arms he should be a lot better at shedding than he's shown.

    Ultimately, the one thing that you can say of every one of the OLB's you listed is that, regardless of what move they use, they're explosive. Similar explosion shows up far, far more on Branch's volume of tape than on Mercilus'.
     
  16. SuperCharger92

    SuperCharger92 Winners Win

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    I would take Kirkpatrick if he falls at 18. I highly doubt he goes by the Bengals though.

    Kirkpatrick could be moved to safety, played much better and more comfortably in the zone coverage and is one hell of a tackler. Very physical and is about 6'2 190-195 pounds I believe. I see a Malcom Jenkins 2.0 - Came out of Ohio as a top CB in the draft and was converted to safety and is a top young safety in the league now for the Saints. Kirkpatrick defiantly has to get to about 205 pounds though if he moves to safety.

    Then I would either trade up for Andre Branch or wait for Jonathan Massaqoui in the 3rd/late 2nd.
     
  17. matilack

    matilack Take A Knee McCree!!!

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    I wouldn't ask him to gain that much weight, maybe 5-10 pounds at most, he'd need to stay fast to cover those TEs and slot receivers.

    I think after a few years of watching AJ and noting his disregard for positional value, that he's positioning us to go LG or SS in the 1st round.
     
  18. SuperCharger92

    SuperCharger92 Winners Win

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    You think so? I honestly think we'll go pass rusher or defensive back in the first round. I think LG could come into play in the 3rd, 4th or 5th rounds. I really think they like what they have in Tyronne Green and Steve Schilling.

    But Kirkpatrick does need to be AT LEAST 200 pounds man. He'll get bullied around if he's a safety at 190 pounds.
     
  19. Bolts4lyfe

    Bolts4lyfe BoltTalker

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    1 of 3 would make me happy Perry, Mercilus, Brockers
     
  20. matilack

    matilack Take A Knee McCree!!!

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    I think the signing of Jarret Johnson is a big deal, along with a hunch that AJ isn't just going to give up on Larry English, plus with Barnes, Phillips, and (as worthless as he is) LaBoy gives AJ a decent excuse to go another way in the first round if he wants too this year. But that doesn't mean we won't go that way in the 2nd or 3rd.

    We are still paper thin at SS and OG, and if Ty Green or Luis Vasquez has a bad offseason it will leave us with very few options. It would be safer to just take the dominant David DeCastro if he falls to us, and with AJ's *** on the line he needs a shoe in solid draft pick regardless of positional value.


    I personally still have Kirkpatrick in my mock. Wether we move him to SS, or Jammer, or Gilchrist I don't give a damn, but we need to shore up that flat footed secondary.
     
  21. Bolts4lyfe

    Bolts4lyfe BoltTalker

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    I was just thinking about what if we moved Jammer to Nickel and put Gilchrist (full offseason) on the outside, Aslo only O-line man I'd want in the 1st would be Decastro, but like any team after Redskins would lick their chops for a chance to get him only question is who takes a bite? Im guessing anywhere between 11-15. I also think the Larry English project has come to an end. I hope he and Laboy get cut. how pissed off would you be if English plays a full year healthy at a high level in a contract year? not even my money but I'd hate the fact that we'd probably resign him to a contract and have to deal with another 4 or 5 years of this b.s. I say we go Defense because that is our biggest need and we have greater needs NT,OLB,DE,SS

    I say 1st Nick Perry, 2nd Harrison Smith, 3rd Mike Martin or Alemeda Ta'amu shift over to the offensive side of the ball 4th Jeff Allen or Nate Potter. in the 5th Jacquies Smith, 6th BPA, 7th BPA, 7th BPA hell the last 2/3 picks should be best player available. even if its a kicker, punter or long snapper as long as they're the best pick at the moment
     
  22. SuperCharger92

    SuperCharger92 Winners Win

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    And I'm hoping thats not the case because well be in this spot in next years draft, looking for an OLB. We have to get one this year, Barnes and Phillips are on the end of their deals and so is LaBoy. English could be cut any day now as well. We need somebody to come in here and make an instant impact as a pass rusher. Whether its Nick Perry, Whitney Mercilus, Andre Branch, etc. If we can trade back, get additional picks with Perry or Mercilus on the board I would do it. I don't know, kinda can't wait for draft day..
     
  23. matilack

    matilack Take A Knee McCree!!!

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    English won't get cut, he's cheaper to keep around at this point, he'll get a shot in camp to win the starting spot. Cason and Jammer are also in contract years and come draft day nobody can us if Gilchrist or Wright will be the answer. And I'm not saying we ignore the problem, maybe AJ waits for Curry or Jones in the 2nd round, or Ronell Lewis or Massaquoi.

    Everyone wants to trade back, but If we had a way to grab Kirkpatrick at 18 and then trade back up around 30 and take Branch I'd do it in a heart beat. It'd probably only cost us our 50 and our 82.
     
  24. Bolts4lyfe

    Bolts4lyfe BoltTalker

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    Or the 49th pick and a first round next year. would you be all for 18th pick Perry and moving back into the first for Barron
     
  25. SuperCharger92

    SuperCharger92 Winners Win

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    I don't think Branch goes in top 30.. defiantly top 40.. All matters how OLB's/DE's pan out. Ingram, Perry, Upshaw, Mercilus will all be selected before him.
     
  26. matilack

    matilack Take A Knee McCree!!!

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    I wouldn't be surprised at all if Branch went to Baltimore or Green Bay, he'd be a nice luxury speed rusher for either.
     
  27. The LBC

    The LBC I'm a Real Prick

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    Fact is, if DeCastro's there you take him period because he's a Top 5-7 total talent in this entire draft, so to get that at #18 is a flat out steal. He's got an elite (yes, I mean ELITE... Steve Hutchinson in his prime) ceiling, a floor that's already above that of 50-60% of the guys at the position in the league right now... assuming he stays at guard. Added value in that he's capable of both backing up and, barring another draft pick down the line when Nick does hang them up, can be the future at the center position as well (which is why I'm doubtful of him making it to #18 because of that versatility). I know there are some folks out there that are going to argue that guards aren't a premium position and they're typically not unless you're getting an elite prospect (#18 is roughly the same slot that Mike Iupati, Logan Mankins, Kendall Langford - guy had an elite ceiling, injuries just kept him from ever reaching it, and Alan Faneca were all drafted in).

    That said, I've said it before, I'll say it again. I'll believe AJ drafting a 1st round OL when I see it. He's literally NEVER done it before - not since he was working beneath both Butler and Bill Polian in Buffalo and had next to no sway. The man's only once ever drafted an OL prior to the 3rd round (McNeill) - even when we had gaping needs for starters on the line.

    Also, I don't see how he's going to be so willing to cut English yet another pass; this is almost the identical time frame that Buster was finally cut on.
     
  28. matilack

    matilack Take A Knee McCree!!!

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    I don't know if its a fact. This is just my opinion (I'm prepared for backlash) I'd rather have a B+ pass rusher or cornerback, than an A+ guard.

    Why? Because there are A LOT more B/B+ level guards that you can win with in the NFL, then there are OLB/DEs and CBs. And as a nature of the position mistakes are usually smaller in scale, and usually doesn't cost your team huge chunks of field position or even points. And because when it comes time to pay the piper, I'd rather pay a CB or pass rusher 10M a year than a guard.

    In this special case I wouldn't bash the pick though, not like Liuget last year.
     
  29. SuperCharger92

    SuperCharger92 Winners Win

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    Couldn't agree anymore with you guys. I see Brandon Washington being a prospect we draft. Most likely go late 3rd or in the 4th. I think we'll trade back and take Andre Branch to get additional picks. If its worth anything, OLB pass rushers have a lot of depth in this draft. Perry, Branch, Massaqoui, Curry, Upshaw, Ingram, and Mercilus. I think it goes in that order, best to bust. But the hype on guys like Ingram, Mercilus, and Upshaw is ridiculous and they'll be take top-20.
     
  30. SuperCharger92

    SuperCharger92 Winners Win

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    I know this is a lot, but any chance of Liuget dropping 20 pounds or so and becoming a OLB?
     

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