1. Welcome to San Diego Chargers NFL Football Podcast and Forum!

    Bolt Talk is one of the largest online communities for the San Diego Chargers. We host a regular Chargers podcast during the season. You are currently viewing our community forums as a guest user.

    Create an Account or

    Having an account grants you additional privileges, such as creating and participating in discussions. Furthermore, we hide most of the ads once you register as a member!
    Dismiss Notice

Wow.....Kick-offs are completely pointless.....

Discussion in 'Chargers Fan Forum' started by ChargerMike, Nov 3, 2015.

  1. ChargerMike

    ChargerMike BoltBruthaFromAnuthMutha

    Joined:
    Sep 14, 2012
    Messages:
    923
    Ratings:
    +481
    Literally and figuratively......I mean....WTF? Every kick-off I've seen this year has been a touch back.......why even have one......it makes no sense. Just get rid of kick-off and start everybody on the 20. That, or move the ball back where it was before for kick-offs.
    :confused:
     
  2. Pointyearedog

    Pointyearedog I only put idiots on ignore...

    Joined:
    Aug 19, 2008
    Messages:
    5,344
    Ratings:
    +1,733
    Maybe because the kickers actually have stronger legs... Except for maybe Novak.
     
  3. Lance19

    Lance19 BoltTalker

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2011
    Messages:
    4,695
    Ratings:
    +2,151
    Yeah...is this a bad time to mention that Novak's kicks are traveling farther than Lambo's this season,
    and that Lambo is giving opponents better starting field position?

    (I mean, since so many people said that Lambo's early misses were unimportant, since losing Novak's
    accuracy was far outweighed by the huge field position improvement we would get from Lambo)


    Screen Shot 2015-11-03 at 8.53.41 PM.png

    http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?tabSeq=0&season=2015&seasonType=REG&d-447263-n=1&d-447263-o=1&d-447263-p=1&statisticCategory=KICKING&d-447263-s=KICKOFF_RETURNS_AVERAGE_YARDS
     
    Last edited: Nov 3, 2015
  4. pure-sol

    pure-sol Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 3, 2008
    Messages:
    1,005
    Ratings:
    +255
    That chart is just listing random numbers, I have no idea what it's saying. But I would contend that Lambo's stat in giving opponents better field position is hugely affected by the substandard special teams play we have.
     
  5. Lance19

    Lance19 BoltTalker

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2011
    Messages:
    4,695
    Ratings:
    +2,151
    Umm...I promise you that the numbers aren't "random." :p

    And I even included the URL...just one click and see everything explained. :whistling:

    Reader's Digest version: Novak's kicks are traveling an average of 63.6 yards, and opponents are starting
    on their 28.6 yard line. For Lambo, the corresponding numbers are 62.4 & 29.3. Slightly worse on both.

    So, not only is Lambo not the giant improvement posters insisted he was at the beginning of the season,
    he is actually hurting the Chargers on kickoffs...I actually had a couple guys "explain" the importance of field position
    to me :rolleyes: because they were mad at me for not immediately agreeing that ditching "weak-legged" Novak was a no-brainer. :)
     
  6. ETicket

    ETicket Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2006
    Messages:
    1,050
    Ratings:
    +367
    Interesting. Of course, all things are not equal when you compare one team's kicker to another. Game situations, weather conditions and stadium design all play a role in those averages. I see they have on sides kicks listed (Novak has 1, Lambo has 3, those kill your average) but how do they account for pooch kicks? I'm guessing they don't.

    I would say, however, that it's clear to me just by watching the games, that Lambo is performing kick offs at a higher level then Novak did last year. And when the team made a decision, that's the Novak we knew.

    There is no way by last year's performance that the team could've foreseen a marked improvement in Novak numbers. For crap's sake, he had a touch back percentage of 12.8! Compare that to Lambo's 48.8% and that's what I'm talking about. Heck, Lambo's TB average would even be higher if teams hadn't already figured out what we already know... our special team units are soft and void of talent.
     
    Last edited: Nov 3, 2015
    • Winner Winner x 1
  7. Concudan

    Concudan Caffeinated Commando

    Joined:
    Mar 5, 2006
    Messages:
    53,043
    Ratings:
    +4,979
    Lol. I have to laugh at Lancey Boo's blatant attempt at 'I am always right'. Many have expressed to me the fact that stats are not always an indicator of what they are used to support.

    So Lance, if you have the testicular fortitude to actually respond and not act childish and ignore the question... do those stats factor in return yardage?

    I would point out that your control factor of Novak is a flawed one. Can you enlighten me as to the difference 41 kick offs compared to 20 has on the stats?

    Also please weigh in on the impact of 20 touch backs to 10? The 20 would be Lambo and the 10 Novak.

    Are you really trying to sell your 'oh how great I am, being always right' based on this flimsy statistical representation?

    All joking aside, you are an intelligent, well spoken person (most of the time) but these stats don't seem to paint the picture (for me) that you want them to paint.

    Stats to consider
    Touch Backs:
    Lambo; ranked 19th among ranked kickers with the aforementioned 20.
    Novak; ranked 33rd among ranked kickers with the aforementioned 10.

    Touch Back Percentage:
    Lambo; ranked 29th with 48.8% (I would argue this is a VAST improvement over last seasons 12.8, but what do I know... Almost a 36% improvement one might suggest)
    Novak; ranked 33rd with 41.7 (credit where due, much better than last season)

    I dont see a lot of areas where Novak or Lambo are statistically superior to the other. A difference of a few ranking points is meaningless.

    However another question Lance. Do you see an overall improvement in this season's kicking game than last seasons? A yes or no answer will suffice, if you care to answer...
     
    Last edited: Nov 4, 2015
    • Agree Agree x 1
  8. OP Bolt

    OP Bolt BoltTalker

    Joined:
    Jul 29, 2014
    Messages:
    52
    Ratings:
    +10
    The numbers could also show more willingness to run it out against a decimated Chargers team, which couldn't tackle even when they were healthy. Risk vs Benefit analysis.
     
    • Like Like x 1
    • Agree Agree x 1
  9. SuperCharger92

    SuperCharger92 Winners Win

    Joined:
    Sep 25, 2011
    Messages:
    4,053
    Ratings:
    +942
    If you've watched closely this year, most teams who field a kick 6+ yards deep in their own end zone usually take a knee. However, with the Chargers terrible special teams, the secret is out and the entire league knows we don't cover kicks or punts well neither are we a good tackling team. I've witnessed this on a few occasions in different games, some teams are fielding kick offs 6+ yards into their end zone and still returning it against us.
     
  10. Concudan

    Concudan Caffeinated Commando

    Joined:
    Mar 5, 2006
    Messages:
    53,043
    Ratings:
    +4,979
    I think basically if the ball does not go out of the back f the end zone.... It will be returned against us..

    *Click, click BOOOM!* My season hopes were just put down...
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  11. Chaincrusher

    Chaincrusher BoltTalker

    Joined:
    Apr 8, 2015
    Messages:
    2,322
    Ratings:
    +302
    Your analysis is flawed.

    Novak kicked an NFL worst 10 of 78 kicks for TBs last year for a rate of 12.8%. The next worst regular full time kicker last year was Nick Folk, who kicked 30.4% TBs. Therefore, Novak had to go.

    This year, Lambo has kicked 48.8% TBs, which is almost 4 times the TB% that Novak kicked for us last year. In limited duty for HOU, Novak has kicked 41.7% TBs, which is much better than he did last year for us, but in defense of our decision to keep Lambo, we couldn't have known that.

    Further, while I can't speak to what teams are doing against HOU, we are 30th in kickoff coverage in terms of average yards allowed per return and what I have seen is teams bringing kicks out from 5-9 yards deep against us. Last year, Novak's kickoffs were not sniffing that range. In my view, Lambo's TB% would be even higher if opponents did not know that our kickoff coverage sucked.

    Finally, Novak has proven to very reliable in terms of FGs, going 15-17 in that department. But one should keep in mind that one of those misses was on a 60 yard attempt. The other miss was a 46 yard attempt in week 2. With the exception of the aforementioned 60 yard attempt, he has been perfect in FGs since that week 2 miss.

    When comparing to Novak, I refuse even to count the 60 yard attempt since it never would have been attempted with Novak. That makes Lambo 15-16 on FGs that Novak would have attempted or 93.8%.

    Basically, he is longer and more accurate than Novak on FGs and better at getting TBs than Novak was for us and than Novak is for HOU now even with teams wanting to bring the ball out against us due to our lack of talent in terms of kickoff coverage.

    In short, Lambo is just a better kicker and his cap figure is only a small fraction of what Novak's would have been.

    A team should definitely keep the better player, especially when he costs less money.
     
    • Funny Funny x 1
  12. Lance19

    Lance19 BoltTalker

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2011
    Messages:
    4,695
    Ratings:
    +2,151
    Go back and look at what I actually said. Then look at your response. No offense, but yours is just
    one (long-winded) red herring after another. My argument was that the stats don't back up the enthusiastic
    consensus in here that the Chargers made a huge upgrade, re. kickoffs. Excuses like "we couldn't have known"
    may tug at the heartstrings, but still don't make the "huge upgrade, re. kickoffs" factually true.
     
    Last edited: Nov 5, 2015
  13. Chaincrusher

    Chaincrusher BoltTalker

    Joined:
    Apr 8, 2015
    Messages:
    2,322
    Ratings:
    +302
    I read what you actually said the first time when I first responded.

    We did make a huge upgrade as to kickoffs.

    Perhaps you fail to comprehend the meaning of the word "upgrade". That word is defined to mean raising something to a higher standard. I am quite sure that 48.8% TBs is better than 12.8% TBs. Everything else you have said is meaningless fluff.

    I also added 1) that the TB% difference would likely be even greater but for our statistically demonstrable (plus eye test verifiable) terrible 30th ranked kickoff coverage, 2) that the TB% is greater than what Novak has done in limited duty for another team, 3) that Lambo is a better FG kicker (which was supposed be Novak's strength as a kicker), and 4) that Lambo costs the team less money than Novak, which would justify us keeping him over Novak even if Novak were as good as Lambo, which he is clearly not.

    You have completely failed to consider what the results would be with Novak still on our team instead of Lambo. When, if ever, did Novak get the ball completely out of the end zone for us? It may have happened, but if it did, it was a very rare fraction of the already low 12.8% TBs from all kickoffs. With our bad coverage, teams are bringing the ball out against us with considerable success.

    I could only imagine how much worse things would be with the combination of 1) Novak's low kickoffs that happened virtually every time he strained to get extra distance and 2) our crappy kickoff coverage this year. That would be a nightmare of 2010 special teams proportions (multiple return TDs).
     
  14. Lance19

    Lance19 BoltTalker

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2011
    Messages:
    4,695
    Ratings:
    +2,151
    You're arguing that # of touchbacks is much more important than actual beginning field position?
     
  15. Chaincrusher

    Chaincrusher BoltTalker

    Joined:
    Apr 8, 2015
    Messages:
    2,322
    Ratings:
    +302
    How are you not comprehending that when your team is surrendering just under 30 yards per kickoff return, every non-TBs on average produce a comparatively worse result than a TB--even when the kickoff is returned from 9 yards deep in the end zone?!

    I am certainly arguing that Novak's lower, more returnable and fewer TB% kickoffs would make the situation for the Chargers much worse than it is with Lambo. I am not suggesting that Lambo is elite when it comes to getting TBs, but I am 100% positive that teams are returning kickoffs against us from a depth that they would sit on versus other teams due to our awful kickoff coverage.

    The proper comparison is between Novak with our 2015 kickoff coverage unit versus Lambo with the same unit. How can you not see that?

    Have you ever seen Novak do kickoffs? He kicks low line drives just to get the ball into the deeper part of the end zone and my recollection is that he hardly ever got the ball out of the end zone. Thus, almost all of Novak's kickoffs for us would be returned. You can't combine that with a terrible kickoff coverage unit like we now have. That is a recipe for disaster. How do you not see that?! SMH....
     
  16. Lance19

    Lance19 BoltTalker

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2011
    Messages:
    4,695
    Ratings:
    +2,151
    I can't tell if you genuinely don't get it, or you're just taking the red herring route because you prefer
    not to admit that the stats do not bear out the claimed "huge improvement" in opponents' starting field position...
     
  17. Concudan

    Concudan Caffeinated Commando

    Joined:
    Mar 5, 2006
    Messages:
    53,043
    Ratings:
    +4,979
    I am vehemently suggesting that the opponents starting field position has far more to do with the coverage team than the Kicker.

    Care to comment?
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  18. Pointyearedog

    Pointyearedog I only put idiots on ignore...

    Joined:
    Aug 19, 2008
    Messages:
    5,344
    Ratings:
    +1,733
  19. Chaincrusher

    Chaincrusher BoltTalker

    Joined:
    Apr 8, 2015
    Messages:
    2,322
    Ratings:
    +302
    No, I am saying your analysis of the stats is lame.

    Teams are averaging just under 30 yards per return against us because our kickoff coverage is beyond awful. I am actually surprised to see that we are as good as 30th in that category.

    In order to consider the matter properly, you need to take Novak and project him onto the 2015 Chargers. You can't just take the Texans' team stats and say that that proves anything. That is flawed analysis.

    You also need to watch Chargers games. As others have correctly noted in this thread, teams are taking the ball out of the end zone against us, even from very deep in the end zone, because we can't cover kickoffs very well.

    On average, teams are getting those returns out beyond the 20 where a TB would place them.

    What does that mean? It means that the only really safe TBs are the ones that are going out of the end zone.

    So there are two things at work here. One is that Lambo just gets more TBs than Novak even with teams taking it out of the end zone against us. The other is that at least as a Charger Novak almost never kicked the ball out of the end zone.

    Because of that, it is reasonable to believe that if you put Novak in a Chargers uniform, he would have almost no TBs.

    I believe it is likely that his TB% might even be lower than it was last year had he remained on the team because our kickoff coverage weakness this year is known (which explains why teams are taking the ball out against us so much).

    And, when you combine the much fewer TBs that Novak would have with the kickoff coverage woes that the team has, you will find that the other team's starting field position would unquestionably be worse for us with Novak as the kicker. And the stats you cite prove nothing to the contrary. Sorry, but your position in that respect is incredibly weak.
     
  20. Lance19

    Lance19 BoltTalker

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2011
    Messages:
    4,695
    Ratings:
    +2,151
    In reality, there's limited data:
    The actual, quantifiable, undeniable numbers...(which don't support your claims)
    and then subjective interpretations
    (which are inherently less accurate, but provide a useful refuge for those who eventually realize that their claims don't withstand scrutiny).

    Again, I got attacked not for saying that we shouldn't have traded Novak...I never have, (in fact, I still hope the
    Chargers made the right call).
    No, I got attacked by guys saying that Lambo's early FG & EP misses didn't
    really matter because of the giant improvement he gave the Chargers re. KO field position.
    I merely suggested that I'd hold off on joining the huge celebration re. dumping Novak until facts warranted it.
    Controversial, eh? :roflmao:


    p.s. You don't have to reflexively defend every one of Telesco's transactions, dude! :p
     
    Last edited: Nov 6, 2015
  21. Concudan

    Concudan Caffeinated Commando

    Joined:
    Mar 5, 2006
    Messages:
    53,043
    Ratings:
    +4,979
    Can someone get Lancey Boo the number for victims anonymous... He needs a shoulder to weep upon... ;)
     
  22. Chaincrusher

    Chaincrusher BoltTalker

    Joined:
    Apr 8, 2015
    Messages:
    2,322
    Ratings:
    +302
    31 and 10 are actual, quantifiable, undeniable numbers also. They represent the score by which the Bengals defeated the Browns last night and they are just about as relevant as the numbers that you have cited in support of your position.

    First, assume that teams are taking the ball out of the end zone against us regularly (because they are). Second, assume that teams average over 29 yards per kick return against us (because they have).

    What does that tell you about the average field position for any returned kickoff? The answer is that any returned kickoff, no matter from where it starts, is more likely than not to be returned past the 20.

    Do you see why that is? A returner can only get 9 yards deep in the end zone and more than 29 yards allowed per kick puts the returner past the 20 on average.

    Now, have you ever seen Novak do kickoffs? How many balls does he kick out of the end zone? None or almost none, right?

    That means that Novak's kickoffs would be getting returned if he were kicking for us (because almost none of them are out of the end zone). Do you see that?

    So, on the one hand we have virtually zero expected TBs for Novak. On the other, we have about half TBs for Lambo. (I know that the actual number is 48+%, but Novak has attempted multiple onside kickoffs, so in terms of attempted deep kickoffs, the number of TBs probably slightly over 50%, which I have, for the sake of simplicity, approximated at 50%.)

    That roughly 50% of all kickoffs will produce worse field position on average, then, with Novak kicking.

    As to the other 50%, ceteris paribus, I would favor Lambo to produce slightly better field position due to him having a stronger leg than Novak. Does that not make sense?

    Do you see how Novak's numbers with Houston are totally irrelevant?

    Further, there were other considerations involved in deciding whether or not to keep Novak that were discussed at the time of the previous thread about Novak. So, you have oversimplified the positions of others in attempt to save face here.

    Unfortunately, the numbers you have cited do not prove much. In such cases, a little common sense goes a long way.

    Moreover, Telesco is not the one that decided who won the kicking job.

    Finally, I might note that others here may question your views if you refer to me, easily Telesco's greatest critic on this forum, as someone that defends every one of Telesco's transactions.
     
  23. Blitzy

    Blitzy Spanos Chargers Troll

    Joined:
    May 7, 2011
    Messages:
    8,201
    Ratings:
    +1,026
    Oh nooz you didn't! Snap!
     
    • Funny Funny x 1
  24. Lance19

    Lance19 BoltTalker

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2011
    Messages:
    4,695
    Ratings:
    +2,151
    They aren't really. Just inconvenient, re. your dogmatism. But yes, I do see why you're cherry-picking and pretending that they are. Some day you'll learn that no matter haw massive your deluge of words, it still won't make the lesser argument the greater.
    (But don't let me stop you typing tortured tldnr responses for your personal comfort) :whistling:
     
  25. Nomad

    Nomad Very Senior Member

    Joined:
    Oct 31, 2006
    Messages:
    634
    Ratings:
    +155
    Completely agree.
     
  26. ZapCannon

    ZapCannon Active Member

    Joined:
    Nov 1, 2015
    Messages:
    32
    Ratings:
    +2
    I miss a darren sproles in that backfield guys! :cry:
    [​IMG]
     
  27. Chaincrusher

    Chaincrusher BoltTalker

    Joined:
    Apr 8, 2015
    Messages:
    2,322
    Ratings:
    +302
    This from the man that cites completely irrelevant stats as if they meant anything.

    Maybe someday you will understand why Concudan asked the question that he did and how the answer to that question impacts the issue of Novak versus Lambo for our team just as my analysis set forth.

    I do understand, though, why you can't respond to my comments on the merits. I doubt you are fooling anyone by your refusal to take on the analysis I offered, which apparently just about everyone on this forum can see except you.
     

Share This Page