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WR Scientist - Who are the best WRs and who beats which CBs

Discussion in 'American Football' started by AnteaterRaider, Jul 3, 2008.

  1. AnteaterRaider

    AnteaterRaider Carpe Diem et omni Mundio Staff Member Super Moderator Podcaster

    Jan 19, 2006

    Great Article but I wanted to take a few juicy tidbits

    I decided to take that concept one step further in Scientific Football 2008 by looking at wide receiver performance versus varying levels of competition. I did this by segmenting cornerbacks into three color categories -- red (the most difficult matchups), yellow (average matchups) and green (the most favorable matchups).

    I used the 2007 yards per attempt average of each cornerback to determine his color rating, with red being a YPA of less than 7 yards, yellow being between 7 and 9 yards, and green being more than 9 yards. Cornerbacks who didn't have enough passes thrown in their direction to qualify were placed in a separate "non-qualifier" category. I also tracked receiver performance when facing a cornerback and when facing a non-cornerback (i.e., a safety, a linebacker, no coverage, etc.).

    1. Randy Moss can be slowed by red- and yellow-rated cornerbacks. I know it sounds crazy to say anything negative about someone who scored 23 touchdowns for the Patriots this past season, but consider this: In the 95 passes Moss had thrown to him while he was being covered by a red- or yellow-rated cornerback, he gained only 541 yards. That equals 5.7 yards per attempt, a terribly low total. Because 62 of those passes came against yellow-rated corners, Moss' YPA actually was less than those cornerbacks' standard YPA in 2007.

    3. Brandon Marshall puts up dominant numbers against subpar cornerbacks and next to nothing against good ones. One of the interesting aspects of this study was that it showed who clearly needed favorable matchups to be successful. Denver's Marshall absolutely is one of those players, if his 2007 numbers are any indication. He tallied 70 passes against red- and yellow-rated cornerbacks and gained only 364 yards against them. When facing green or non-rated cornerbacks, Marshall posted 50 attempts for 518 yards. That's a 5.2 YPA against red/yellow and a 10.4 YPA against green/non-qualifier, so he is literally twice as productive against subpar competition than he is against good competition. :lol::lol::lol:

    5. Keary Colbert and Darrell Jackson are all but certain not to solve Denver's wide receiver woes. Colbert placed in the bottom 10 in YPA versus cornerbacks last year with a 6.1. Jackson was even worse, as his 4.7 YPA was the lowest of any wide receiver against cornerbacks. :icon_rofl::icon_rofl::icon_rofl:
  2. mandude

    mandude BoltTalker

    Nov 30, 2006
    can you post the whole article?

    not an insider :(
  3. PowderLove

    PowderLove Former Mod, Current Slacker

    Jul 12, 2007
    I truly dislike ESPN's insider articles. It makes me go to *gasp* fox sports news.
  4. Retired Catholic

    Retired Catholic BoltTalker

    Aug 3, 2006
    Most fans live lives of quiet desperation.

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